Evansville
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#300
Expected Predictive Rating-13.1#326
Pace70.5#142
Improvement-0.7#270

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#264
First Shot+0.3#169
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#336
Layup/Dunks+0.8#148
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#36
Freethrows-4.8#342
Improvement-0.9#310

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#316
First Shot-4.8#315
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#159
Layups/Dunks-3.0#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#147
Freethrows-1.1#244
Improvement+0.2#159
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.2
.500 or above 2.0% 3.2% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 6.4% 8.4% 4.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 45.9% 40.6% 51.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Home) - 51.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 33 - 113 - 18
Quad 45 - 67 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 83   @ North Texas L 63-80 6%     0 - 1 -7.1 +3.0 -11.6
  Nov 13, 2024 165   @ Middle Tennessee L 63-80 17%     0 - 2 -14.4 -10.0 -3.7
  Nov 16, 2024 227   Radford L 81-92 45%     0 - 3 -17.2 +10.0 -28.4
  Nov 19, 2024 20   @ Ohio St. L 30-80 2%     0 - 4 -33.0 -32.8 -2.0
  Nov 22, 2024 252   Green Bay W 77-76 51%    
  Nov 24, 2024 257   Campbell W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 03, 2024 109   @ Murray St. L 64-79 9%    
  Dec 07, 2024 122   Western Kentucky L 75-82 25%    
  Dec 12, 2024 168   Chattanooga L 72-76 36%    
  Dec 18, 2024 164   @ Texas Arlington L 74-84 18%    
  Dec 21, 2024 246   @ Ball St. L 71-77 29%    
  Dec 29, 2024 162   Missouri St. L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 01, 2025 132   @ Southern Illinois L 66-78 14%    
  Jan 04, 2025 180   Indiana St. L 78-81 38%    
  Jan 08, 2025 172   Illinois St. L 68-72 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 107   @ Drake L 65-80 10%    
  Jan 14, 2025 118   @ Northern Iowa L 66-80 12%    
  Jan 18, 2025 141   Belmont L 76-82 30%    
  Jan 22, 2025 157   Illinois-Chicago L 76-80 35%    
  Jan 25, 2025 276   @ Valparaiso L 72-77 35%    
  Jan 29, 2025 109   Murray St. L 67-76 23%    
  Feb 02, 2025 141   @ Belmont L 73-85 15%    
  Feb 05, 2025 132   Southern Illinois L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 08, 2025 93   Bradley L 67-77 19%    
  Feb 12, 2025 162   @ Missouri St. L 66-76 19%    
  Feb 16, 2025 276   Valparaiso W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 19, 2025 180   @ Indiana St. L 75-84 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 157   @ Illinois-Chicago L 73-83 19%    
  Feb 26, 2025 107   Drake L 68-77 23%    
  Mar 02, 2025 172   @ Illinois St. L 65-75 20%    
Projected Record 7 - 23 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 0.8 0.1 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 5.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 14.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 4.2 7.5 6.6 3.2 0.7 0.0 23.5 11th
12th 2.1 6.1 9.3 9.2 5.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 35.2 12th
Total 2.1 6.2 10.5 13.6 14.9 13.3 12.1 9.3 7.0 4.7 3.0 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 84.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 50.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 13.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 5.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 11.4% 11.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.2% 17.4% 17.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.4% 4.0% 4.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 0.9% 3.2% 3.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-9 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
10-10 3.0% 1.3% 1.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
9-11 4.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.7
8-12 7.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.0
7-13 9.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.3
6-14 12.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.1
5-15 13.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.3
4-16 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.9
3-17 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.6
2-18 10.5% 10.5
1-19 6.2% 6.2
0-20 2.1% 2.1
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%