Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#280
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#259
Pace67.0#232
Improvement+2.1#54

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#209
First Shot-1.0#197
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#206
Layup/Dunks-3.1#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#28
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#162
Freethrows-2.0#289
Improvement+3.9#6

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#331
First Shot-3.7#299
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#301
Layups/Dunks-5.0#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#126
Freethrows-1.2#264
Improvement-1.8#313
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 5.9% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 26.9% 40.6% 19.0%
.500 or above in Conference 48.3% 55.6% 44.1%
Conference Champion 3.8% 5.1% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.9% 4.0% 7.0%
First Four2.4% 2.3% 2.4%
First Round3.7% 4.7% 3.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Away) - 36.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 412 - 914 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 99   @ Rhode Island L 58-96 9%     0 - 1 -29.5 -14.8 -11.9
  Nov 09, 2024 71   @ Georgetown L 57-69 6%     0 - 2 -1.0 -8.8 +7.6
  Nov 12, 2024 356   @ New Hampshire W 62-56 62%     1 - 2 -3.9 -8.3 +4.8
  Nov 19, 2024 146   Drexel L 61-67 35%     1 - 3 -8.6 -6.2 -2.9
  Nov 23, 2024 100   Yale L 66-91 13%     1 - 4 -19.7 +4.7 -28.2
  Nov 24, 2024 184   Vermont W 67-66 30%     2 - 4 -0.2 +4.4 -4.5
  Dec 01, 2024 334   Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-74 74%     3 - 4 -9.2 -3.0 -6.3
  Dec 04, 2024 300   Rider W 78-75 64%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -7.4 +4.5 -11.8
  Dec 08, 2024 253   @ Mount St. Mary's L 94-101 33%     4 - 5 1 - 1 -9.1 +19.5 -28.5
  Dec 18, 2024 221   Central Connecticut St. L 63-64 48%     4 - 6 -7.0 -3.3 -3.7
  Dec 21, 2024 272   @ Monmouth L 71-75 37%    
  Dec 28, 2024 177   @ Columbia L 72-81 21%    
  Jan 03, 2025 198   @ Merrimack L 65-73 23%    
  Jan 10, 2025 258   Iona W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 12, 2025 233   @ Marist L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 16, 2025 320   Niagara W 73-68 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 350   Canisius W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 23, 2025 293   @ Manhattan L 75-78 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 198   Merrimack L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 31, 2025 245   @ Quinnipiac L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 02, 2025 258   @ Iona L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 06, 2025 233   Marist W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 284   Sacred Heart W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 14, 2025 210   @ St. Peter's L 63-70 25%    
  Feb 16, 2025 293   Manhattan W 78-75 63%    
  Feb 21, 2025 300   @ Rider L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 28, 2025 253   Mount St. Mary's W 74-73 56%    
  Mar 02, 2025 284   @ Sacred Heart L 74-77 40%    
  Mar 06, 2025 305   @ Siena L 68-70 43%    
  Mar 08, 2025 245   Quinnipiac W 76-75 54%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.0 0.7 0.1 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 3.6 1.2 0.1 7.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.8 1.9 0.1 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.8 3.2 0.3 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.9 4.6 0.7 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.5 1.8 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.1 2.9 0.2 9.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 3.5 0.6 9.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 3.4 0.8 0.0 8.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.4 0.9 0.1 7.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.9 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.4 7.3 10.2 12.5 13.9 13.6 11.8 9.2 6.5 4.0 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-4 85.3% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 59.5% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 28.8% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0
13-7 5.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 23.7% 23.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 32.9% 32.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.8% 20.1% 20.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-5 1.9% 19.4% 19.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.5
14-6 4.0% 16.8% 16.8% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 3.4
13-7 6.5% 13.2% 13.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 5.6
12-8 9.2% 9.6% 9.6% 15.9 0.1 0.8 8.4
11-9 11.8% 6.2% 6.2% 15.9 0.0 0.7 11.0
10-10 13.6% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 13.2
9-11 13.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 13.6
8-12 12.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 12.3
7-13 10.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.2
6-14 7.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.2
5-15 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.4
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 95.2 0.0%