Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#274
Expected Predictive Rating-7.2#284
Pace70.0#160
Improvement+2.5#9

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#316
First Shot-6.5#334
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#101
Layup/Dunks-2.2#261
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#286
Freethrows-4.6#341
Improvement+1.8#15

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#193
First Shot-1.5#230
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#138
Layups/Dunks-3.1#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#115
Freethrows-0.8#226
Improvement+0.7#87
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 8.6% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 33.8% 54.6% 29.5%
.500 or above in Conference 54.3% 66.5% 51.8%
Conference Champion 5.4% 8.9% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 2.3% 5.5%
First Four2.3% 2.3% 2.2%
First Round4.6% 7.3% 4.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Yale (Neutral) - 17.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 72 - 9
Quad 412 - 814 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 117   @ Rhode Island L 58-96 13%     0 - 1 -31.7 -17.3 -11.6
  Nov 09, 2024 126   @ Georgetown L 57-69 15%     0 - 2 -6.5 -14.4 +7.6
  Nov 12, 2024 341   @ New Hampshire W 62-56 62%     1 - 2 -2.9 -10.0 +7.6
  Nov 19, 2024 144   Drexel L 61-67 35%     1 - 3 -8.0 -5.6 -3.0
  Nov 23, 2024 108   Yale L 65-75 17%    
  Nov 24, 2024 149   Vermont L 60-66 27%    
  Dec 01, 2024 342   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 79-76 62%    
  Dec 04, 2024 240   Rider W 71-70 54%    
  Dec 08, 2024 260   @ Mount St. Mary's L 68-72 37%    
  Dec 18, 2024 256   Central Connecticut St. W 68-66 57%    
  Dec 21, 2024 261   @ Monmouth L 70-74 37%    
  Dec 28, 2024 192   @ Columbia L 71-78 26%    
  Jan 03, 2025 230   @ Merrimack L 63-68 31%    
  Jan 10, 2025 217   Iona L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 12, 2025 234   @ Marist L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 16, 2025 327   Niagara W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 18, 2025 351   Canisius W 75-65 81%    
  Jan 23, 2025 328   @ Manhattan W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 230   Merrimack W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 31, 2025 224   @ Quinnipiac L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 02, 2025 217   @ Iona L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 06, 2025 234   Marist W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 331   Sacred Heart W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 14, 2025 178   @ St. Peter's L 60-68 25%    
  Feb 16, 2025 328   Manhattan W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 21, 2025 240   @ Rider L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 28, 2025 260   Mount St. Mary's W 71-69 58%    
  Mar 02, 2025 331   @ Sacred Heart W 75-73 56%    
  Mar 06, 2025 306   @ Siena L 66-67 47%    
  Mar 08, 2025 224   Quinnipiac W 73-72 51%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.4 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.3 2.1 0.6 0.1 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.1 3.1 0.6 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 3.8 0.8 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.7 4.4 1.2 0.1 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.7 1.7 0.1 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.3 1.9 0.2 9.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.2 6.2 8.7 10.4 11.8 11.8 11.1 9.6 7.9 5.8 3.9 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 98.4% 0.2    0.1 0.0
18-2 95.9% 0.4    0.4 0.0
17-3 84.9% 0.9    0.8 0.2 0.0
16-4 65.3% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 36.1% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 12.4% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 3.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 41.0% 41.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.4% 37.8% 37.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.1% 30.2% 30.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
16-4 2.5% 23.5% 23.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.9
15-5 3.9% 18.6% 18.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 3.2
14-6 5.8% 15.3% 15.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 4.9
13-7 7.9% 11.2% 11.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 7.0
12-8 9.6% 8.0% 8.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 8.9
11-9 11.1% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6 10.5
10-10 11.8% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3 11.5
9-11 11.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.6
8-12 10.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.3
7-13 8.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.7
6-14 6.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.2
5-15 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.2
4-16 2.5% 2.5
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.7 94.2 0.0%