George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#96
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#258
Pace66.6#262
Improvement-1.1#286

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#126
First Shot+0.0#181
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#86
Layup/Dunks-0.8#207
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#237
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#264
Freethrows+4.6#13
Improvement+0.2#147

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#75
First Shot+6.1#33
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#316
Layups/Dunks+4.7#52
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#153
Freethrows+0.5#160
Improvement-1.2#315
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 10.9% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.8% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.4 11.9
.500 or above 80.0% 88.4% 73.2%
.500 or above in Conference 78.0% 81.9% 74.8%
Conference Champion 11.7% 14.2% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.0% 1.8%
First Four0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
First Round8.9% 10.8% 7.4%
Second Round2.6% 3.3% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Away) - 44.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 22 - 33 - 7
Quad 37 - 510 - 12
Quad 49 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 264   NC Central W 75-58 90%     1 - 0 +8.6 -1.0 +10.1
  Nov 08, 2024 14   @ Marquette L 63-82 13%     1 - 1 -1.3 -3.4 +3.0
  Nov 11, 2024 302   Stony Brook W 94-56 93%     2 - 1 +27.4 +15.9 +11.8
  Nov 13, 2024 203   Central Michigan L 69-70 84%     2 - 2 -6.1 -3.6 -2.5
  Nov 16, 2024 160   @ East Carolina L 77-78 2OT 60%     2 - 3 +1.9 -3.1 +5.1
  Nov 20, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 93-55 99%     3 - 3 +15.6 +19.0 -0.9
  Nov 29, 2024 113   @ James Madison L 72-73 45%    
  Dec 03, 2024 176   UNC Asheville W 76-67 81%    
  Dec 07, 2024 146   Tulane W 75-67 76%    
  Dec 17, 2024 5   @ Duke L 62-79 6%    
  Dec 22, 2024 266   Penn W 77-63 90%    
  Dec 28, 2024 281   Mount St. Mary's W 76-61 91%    
  Dec 31, 2024 131   Davidson W 72-65 71%    
  Jan 04, 2025 112   @ Rhode Island L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 08, 2025 197   Richmond W 72-62 83%    
  Jan 11, 2025 125   Massachusetts W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 15, 2025 59   @ Dayton L 64-70 28%    
  Jan 18, 2025 144   George Washington W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 21, 2025 115   @ St. Bonaventure L 67-68 45%    
  Jan 29, 2025 105   Loyola Chicago W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 131   @ Davidson W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 05, 2025 144   @ George Washington W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 112   Rhode Island W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 11, 2025 102   @ Saint Louis L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 89   Saint Joseph's W 72-70 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 60   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 26, 2025 163   Fordham W 74-65 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 215   @ Duquesne W 70-65 67%    
  Mar 05, 2025 130   La Salle W 73-66 72%    
  Mar 08, 2025 197   @ Richmond W 69-65 64%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 3.4 3.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 11.7 1st
2nd 0.2 2.5 4.8 3.7 1.0 0.2 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 5.3 3.6 0.7 0.1 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.7 3.8 0.8 0.1 10.6 4th
5th 0.4 3.7 4.4 1.2 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 5.0 1.8 0.1 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.3 2.8 0.2 8.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 3.2 0.5 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.2 1.0 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.4 2.2 2.0 0.3 4.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.4 3.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.8 13th
14th 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.8 5.9 8.8 11.5 13.3 13.5 13.0 10.8 7.9 4.4 2.5 0.8 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 90.8% 2.2    1.9 0.4 0.0
15-3 76.1% 3.4    2.1 1.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 43.2% 3.4    1.4 1.4 0.6 0.0
13-5 15.0% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 6.6 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 68.4% 43.4% 25.0% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 44.2%
17-1 0.8% 52.3% 42.7% 9.6% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 16.8%
16-2 2.5% 34.4% 30.1% 4.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.6 6.1%
15-3 4.4% 25.6% 23.3% 2.3% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 3.3 2.9%
14-4 7.9% 19.8% 19.7% 0.1% 11.6 0.7 0.9 0.1 6.4 0.2%
13-5 10.8% 14.3% 14.3% 12.0 0.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.3
12-6 13.0% 10.4% 10.4% 12.1 0.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 11.7
11-7 13.5% 7.4% 7.4% 12.4 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 12.5
10-8 13.3% 3.9% 3.9% 12.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 12.8
9-9 11.5% 2.9% 2.9% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.2
8-10 8.8% 0.6% 0.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 8.8
7-11 5.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
6-12 3.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 3.8
5-13 1.9% 1.9
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 9.0% 8.6% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 2.4 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 91.0 0.4%