Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#153
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#153
Pace63.4#317
Improvement+0.7#137

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#124
First Shot+5.3#50
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#342
Layup/Dunks-1.8#251
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#180
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#20
Freethrows+0.9#126
Improvement+2.1#44

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#218
First Shot-3.2#284
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#64
Layups/Dunks+2.6#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#328
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#319
Freethrows+0.2#176
Improvement-1.4#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.4% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.7 13.2
.500 or above 56.1% 72.6% 48.7%
.500 or above in Conference 43.6% 51.7% 40.0%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.0% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 4.3% 7.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.2% 4.4% 2.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cornell (Away) - 30.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 6
Quad 37 - 78 - 13
Quad 48 - 316 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 324   Tennessee Martin L 65-67 88%     0 - 1 -14.3 -19.1 +5.0
  Nov 07, 2024 130   @ North Dakota St. W 77-68 33%     1 - 1 +13.8 +8.9 +5.6
  Nov 12, 2024 149   Ohio W 85-75 61%     2 - 1 +7.4 +16.9 -8.5
  Nov 22, 2024 92   McNeese St. L 68-76 29%     2 - 2 -1.9 +7.5 -10.5
  Nov 23, 2024 129   UAB W 84-83 44%     3 - 2 +2.9 +4.6 -1.7
  Nov 25, 2024 136   George Washington L 64-72 46%     3 - 3 -6.6 -5.2 -1.9
  Dec 04, 2024 133   @ Belmont L 97-99 OT 33%     3 - 4 0 - 1 +2.7 +10.6 -7.7
  Dec 07, 2024 277   Pacific W 72-61 82%     4 - 4 +1.7 +4.1 -1.2
  Dec 15, 2024 143   Saint Louis W 81-77 59%     5 - 4 +1.8 +13.4 -11.1
  Dec 18, 2024 346   Northern Illinois W 81-60 91%     6 - 4 +6.0 +2.0 +3.9
  Dec 22, 2024 120   @ Cornell L 75-80 31%    
  Dec 29, 2024 199   Illinois-Chicago W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 02, 2025 124   @ Murray St. L 66-71 31%    
  Jan 05, 2025 168   Southern Illinois W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 08, 2025 290   @ Evansville W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 98   Northern Iowa L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 15, 2025 67   @ Drake L 59-70 15%    
  Jan 18, 2025 194   Missouri St. W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 21, 2025 150   Indiana St. W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 79   @ Bradley L 66-76 18%    
  Jan 29, 2025 133   Belmont W 79-77 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 226   Valparaiso W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 05, 2025 199   @ Illinois-Chicago L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 98   @ Northern Iowa L 66-74 22%    
  Feb 12, 2025 67   Drake L 62-67 32%    
  Feb 15, 2025 150   @ Indiana St. L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 19, 2025 79   Bradley L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 194   @ Missouri St. L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 25, 2025 168   @ Southern Illinois L 69-71 43%    
  Mar 02, 2025 290   Evansville W 75-65 82%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 3.0 4.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.6 4.9 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.9 2.4 0.2 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.7 3.4 0.4 0.0 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.0 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.8 5.2 8.1 11.1 13.2 14.2 13.3 11.1 8.4 5.4 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 96.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-3 89.8% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-4 60.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 30.1% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 28.6% 28.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 21.6% 21.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.5% 14.3% 14.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-5 1.4% 15.3% 15.3% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2
14-6 3.2% 13.3% 13.3% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7
13-7 5.4% 10.3% 10.3% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 4.9
12-8 8.4% 7.2% 7.2% 12.9 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.8
11-9 11.1% 4.2% 4.2% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.6
10-10 13.3% 2.4% 2.4% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.0
9-11 14.2% 1.7% 1.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 14.0
8-12 13.2% 1.0% 1.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.1
7-13 11.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.0
6-14 8.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.1
5-15 5.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.2
4-16 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-17 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 96.8 0.0%