Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#172
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#195
Pace63.2#334
Improvement+0.5#119

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#194
First Shot+5.1#51
After Offensive Rebound-5.8#362
Layup/Dunks-2.2#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#84
Freethrows+3.3#45
Improvement+1.5#25

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#174
First Shot-3.4#286
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#27
Layups/Dunks-0.3#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#235
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#344
Freethrows+4.2#24
Improvement-1.0#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 6.0% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 12.8 13.4
.500 or above 48.2% 66.6% 41.0%
.500 or above in Conference 44.0% 55.2% 39.6%
Conference Champion 3.7% 5.9% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 4.0% 9.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round4.0% 5.9% 3.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Neutral) - 28.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 36 - 77 - 12
Quad 48 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 302   Tennessee Martin L 65-67 82%     0 - 1 -12.5 -17.9 +5.6
  Nov 07, 2024 242   @ North Dakota St. W 77-68 51%     1 - 1 +8.0 +7.7 +1.0
  Nov 12, 2024 156   Ohio W 85-75 58%     2 - 1 +7.1 +15.3 -7.2
  Nov 22, 2024 91   McNeese St. L 63-69 28%    
  Dec 04, 2024 141   @ Belmont L 71-76 32%    
  Dec 07, 2024 291   Pacific W 73-64 80%    
  Dec 15, 2024 101   Saint Louis L 71-74 40%    
  Dec 18, 2024 293   Northern Illinois W 73-64 80%    
  Dec 22, 2024 167   @ Cornell L 73-76 39%    
  Dec 29, 2024 157   Illinois-Chicago W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 02, 2025 109   @ Murray St. L 63-71 25%    
  Jan 05, 2025 132   Southern Illinois W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 08, 2025 300   @ Evansville W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 118   Northern Iowa L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 15, 2025 107   @ Drake L 64-72 25%    
  Jan 18, 2025 162   Missouri St. W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 21, 2025 180   Indiana St. W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 93   @ Bradley L 63-72 21%    
  Jan 29, 2025 141   Belmont W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 276   Valparaiso W 73-65 76%    
  Feb 05, 2025 157   @ Illinois-Chicago L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 118   @ Northern Iowa L 65-72 26%    
  Feb 12, 2025 107   Drake L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 180   @ Indiana St. L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 19, 2025 93   Bradley L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 22, 2025 162   @ Missouri St. L 65-68 38%    
  Feb 25, 2025 132   @ Southern Illinois L 64-70 32%    
  Mar 02, 2025 300   Evansville W 75-65 80%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.8 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.7 3.5 0.8 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.4 3.6 0.9 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 4.1 3.0 0.8 0.0 11.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 8.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.4 4.1 6.5 8.5 10.1 11.3 11.6 11.1 9.5 7.9 6.2 4.1 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 97.3% 0.3    0.2 0.0
17-3 86.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
16-4 65.1% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 40.8% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 51.2% 41.5% 9.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16.7%
18-2 0.3% 40.5% 38.7% 1.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.9%
17-3 0.7% 26.7% 26.4% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.5%
16-4 1.4% 20.0% 20.0% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1
15-5 2.7% 17.0% 17.0% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.2
14-6 4.1% 13.9% 13.9% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.5
13-7 6.2% 10.8% 10.8% 13.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.6
12-8 7.9% 7.0% 7.0% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.3
11-9 9.5% 4.7% 4.7% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.0
10-10 11.1% 2.7% 2.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.8
9-11 11.6% 1.6% 1.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.4
8-12 11.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.2
7-13 10.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.0
6-14 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.5
5-15 6.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.5
4-16 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-17 2.4% 2.4
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.1% 4.0% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 95.9 0.0%