McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#95
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#157
Pace64.7#308
Improvement+1.8#38

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#103
First Shot+5.4#46
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#307
Layup/Dunks-0.7#206
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#198
Freethrows+3.7#30
Improvement+1.0#62

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#90
First Shot+2.5#102
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#169
Layups/Dunks+6.3#31
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#334
Freethrows+0.9#137
Improvement+0.8#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.3% 57.3% 46.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 98.6% 99.3% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.6% 99.2%
Conference Champion 73.3% 76.5% 64.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round54.2% 57.2% 46.4%
Second Round11.5% 13.2% 7.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.4% 4.0% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Neutral) - 72.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 01 - 2
Quad 34 - 35 - 5
Quad 417 - 222 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 152   South Dakota St. L 73-80 70%     0 - 1 -6.6 -3.9 -2.3
  Nov 11, 2024 8   @ Alabama L 64-72 9%     0 - 2 +12.8 +1.4 +11.0
  Nov 18, 2024 84   North Texas W 68-61 57%     1 - 2 +10.9 +5.4 +6.1
  Nov 22, 2024 171   Illinois St. W 69-63 72%    
  Dec 03, 2024 99   Santa Clara W 75-71 64%    
  Dec 14, 2024 29   Mississippi St. L 68-75 26%    
  Dec 22, 2024 247   @ Louisiana W 73-66 74%    
  Dec 28, 2024 356   New Orleans W 84-61 98%    
  Dec 30, 2024 272   SE Louisiana W 76-62 90%    
  Jan 04, 2025 352   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 76-60 92%    
  Jan 06, 2025 316   @ Northwestern St. W 75-64 84%    
  Jan 11, 2025 229   Nicholls St. W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 13, 2025 358   @ Houston Christian W 81-64 93%    
  Jan 18, 2025 292   Lamar W 79-63 91%    
  Jan 20, 2025 202   Stephen F. Austin W 70-59 83%    
  Jan 25, 2025 190   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 27, 2025 223   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 229   @ Nicholls St. W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 03, 2025 309   Incarnate Word W 80-63 93%    
  Feb 08, 2025 316   Northwestern St. W 78-61 93%    
  Feb 10, 2025 352   Texas A&M - Commerce W 79-57 97%    
  Feb 15, 2025 356   @ New Orleans W 81-64 92%    
  Feb 17, 2025 272   @ SE Louisiana W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 223   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79-67 84%    
  Feb 24, 2025 190   UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-70 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 292   @ Lamar W 76-66 79%    
  Mar 03, 2025 202   Stephen F. Austin W 70-59 82%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.7 8.0 14.8 19.1 18.2 9.8 73.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.6 4.4 2.4 0.4 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.2 1.4 0.3 5.6 3rd
4th 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.4 6.1 8.8 12.7 17.3 19.5 18.2 9.8 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 9.8    9.8
19-1 100.0% 18.2    18.0 0.1
18-2 98.0% 19.1    17.5 1.5 0.0
17-3 85.9% 14.8    11.5 3.1 0.2
16-4 63.1% 8.0    4.8 2.7 0.5
15-5 30.8% 2.7    1.0 1.2 0.4 0.1
14-6 9.4% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 73.3% 73.3 62.8 9.1 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 9.8% 79.1% 78.3% 0.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 2.1 3.7%
19-1 18.2% 68.8% 68.8% 0.1% 12.1 0.1 0.1 1.7 7.2 3.1 0.3 0.0 5.7 0.2%
18-2 19.5% 62.2% 62.2% 12.7 0.0 0.2 4.8 5.4 1.6 0.1 7.4
17-3 17.3% 55.5% 55.5% 13.2 0.0 1.7 4.8 2.7 0.4 7.7
16-4 12.7% 47.5% 47.5% 13.7 0.4 2.1 2.6 0.8 0.0 6.7
15-5 8.8% 38.2% 38.2% 14.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.1 5.4
14-6 6.1% 29.2% 29.2% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 4.4
13-7 3.4% 19.5% 19.5% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.7
12-8 2.0% 15.3% 15.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.7
11-9 1.2% 5.4% 5.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
10-10 0.5% 11.4% 11.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-11 0.3% 0.3
8-12 0.1% 17.4% 17.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 54.3% 54.2% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 4.2 17.2 16.8 9.7 3.6 0.6 45.7 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 6.8 0.6 0.8 6.4 13.1 13.2 17.7 13.2 5.7 8.3 7.5 10.5 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 13.7% 10.6 4.9 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 14.7% 11.0 14.7