Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#223
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#212
Pace68.0#221
Improvement-1.4#320

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#334
First Shot-3.8#283
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#288
Layup/Dunks-4.9#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#245
Freethrows-0.1#193
Improvement-0.5#267

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#91
First Shot+2.0#115
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#120
Layups/Dunks+0.9#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#217
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
Freethrows+0.8#137
Improvement-0.9#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 18.5% 13.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 54.5% 77.3% 51.5%
.500 or above in Conference 82.7% 90.9% 81.6%
Conference Champion 18.5% 27.0% 17.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.3% 1.3%
First Four3.5% 2.2% 3.7%
First Round12.1% 17.4% 11.4%
Second Round0.5% 1.4% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 11.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 43 - 10
Quad 414 - 617 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 151   Vermont W 65-51 48%     1 - 0 +11.4 -0.2 +13.0
  Nov 13, 2024 50   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 42-63 8%     1 - 1 -8.5 -23.1 +14.9
  Nov 17, 2024 109   Princeton L 57-68 35%     1 - 2 -10.0 -6.4 -5.6
  Nov 20, 2024 44   @ Rutgers L 63-74 7%     1 - 3 +2.6 +0.0 +2.2
  Nov 22, 2024 85   @ Butler L 62-75 12%    
  Nov 25, 2024 155   @ Umass Lowell L 67-73 28%    
  Nov 27, 2024 273   Texas San Antonio W 73-70 60%    
  Nov 29, 2024 124   @ Troy L 63-72 21%    
  Dec 06, 2024 351   @ Canisius W 71-64 74%    
  Dec 08, 2024 324   @ Niagara W 69-66 61%    
  Dec 13, 2024 286   Boston University W 67-61 72%    
  Dec 17, 2024 76   @ Stanford L 59-73 11%    
  Dec 19, 2024 43   @ St. Mary's L 56-73 6%    
  Jan 03, 2025 271   Fairfield W 69-63 69%    
  Jan 10, 2025 333   @ Sacred Heart W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 12, 2025 329   Manhattan W 73-63 80%    
  Jan 16, 2025 225   @ Quinnipiac L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 306   Siena W 67-59 76%    
  Jan 23, 2025 180   @ St. Peter's L 59-64 33%    
  Jan 25, 2025 271   @ Fairfield L 65-66 49%    
  Jan 31, 2025 278   Mount St. Mary's W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 02, 2025 242   @ Rider L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 06, 2025 324   Niagara W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 08, 2025 351   Canisius W 74-61 88%    
  Feb 14, 2025 329   @ Manhattan W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 16, 2025 233   Marist W 67-63 62%    
  Feb 21, 2025 333   Sacred Heart W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 23, 2025 247   @ Iona L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 28, 2025 242   Rider W 69-65 64%    
  Mar 02, 2025 225   Quinnipiac W 70-67 61%    
  Mar 06, 2025 233   @ Marist L 64-66 42%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.8 4.7 4.4 2.5 1.0 0.2 18.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.2 5.0 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.5 5.2 4.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 4.8 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.2 3.6 0.8 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.5 0.9 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.6 1.1 0.1 5.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.2 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.6 6.7 8.7 10.9 12.2 12.5 11.9 10.2 7.4 5.1 2.6 1.0 0.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 98.5% 1.0    0.9 0.0
18-2 95.0% 2.5    2.3 0.2 0.0
17-3 87.0% 4.4    3.5 0.9 0.0
16-4 64.1% 4.7    3.0 1.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 37.5% 3.8    1.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.3% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.5% 18.5 11.8 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 58.2% 58.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 1.0% 48.5% 48.5% 13.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
18-2 2.6% 40.2% 40.2% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.6
17-3 5.1% 33.0% 33.0% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 3.4
16-4 7.4% 26.7% 26.7% 14.9 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 5.4
15-5 10.2% 22.5% 22.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 7.9
14-6 11.9% 17.7% 17.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 9.8
13-7 12.5% 13.5% 13.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 10.8
12-8 12.2% 9.0% 9.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 11.1
11-9 10.9% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 10.2
10-10 8.7% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.3 8.4
9-11 6.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 6.6
8-12 4.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.6
7-13 2.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.7
6-14 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 4.1 6.5 86.3 0.0%