Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#110
Expected Predictive Rating+9.8#57
Pace62.7#337
Improvement-0.7#261

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#80
First Shot+6.4#31
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#319
Layup/Dunks+3.3#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#91
Freethrows+1.8#84
Improvement-0.5#255

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#152
First Shot-0.4#183
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#135
Layups/Dunks+4.6#55
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#290
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#202
Freethrows-2.6#309
Improvement-0.2#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 15.9% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 1.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.9 11.7 12.4
.500 or above 83.4% 88.3% 72.4%
.500 or above in Conference 80.7% 83.6% 73.9%
Conference Champion 18.0% 20.7% 11.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.8% 1.7%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round14.1% 15.7% 10.4%
Second Round3.2% 3.9% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 69.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 37 - 410 - 10
Quad 49 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 22   @ Pittsburgh L 68-83 12%     0 - 1 +1.5 +3.9 -2.5
  Nov 16, 2024 161   @ Middle Tennessee W 88-67 54%     1 - 1 +23.9 +21.5 +3.1
  Nov 20, 2024 354   Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-61 96%     2 - 1 +1.3 +4.3 -1.7
  Nov 22, 2024 136   Utah Valley W 71-66 69%    
  Nov 25, 2024 166   Texas Arlington W 78-74 67%    
  Dec 03, 2024 301   Evansville W 78-64 91%    
  Dec 08, 2024 313   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-63 92%    
  Dec 14, 2024 121   @ Western Kentucky L 73-75 44%    
  Dec 18, 2024 181   @ Indiana St. W 77-75 57%    
  Dec 22, 2024 64   Nebraska L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 02, 2025 171   Illinois St. W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 05, 2025 93   @ Drake L 64-69 34%    
  Jan 08, 2025 119   @ Northern Iowa L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 270   Valparaiso W 77-64 87%    
  Jan 15, 2025 184   @ Illinois-Chicago W 76-74 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 88   Bradley W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 22, 2025 134   @ Southern Illinois L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 142   Belmont W 78-72 69%    
  Jan 29, 2025 301   @ Evansville W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 01, 2025 167   @ Missouri St. W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 04, 2025 93   Drake W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 270   @ Valparaiso W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 11, 2025 184   Illinois-Chicago W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 16, 2025 119   Northern Iowa W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 19, 2025 134   Southern Illinois W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 88   @ Bradley L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 25, 2025 181   Indiana St. W 80-72 76%    
  Mar 02, 2025 142   @ Belmont L 74-75 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.4 4.8 4.5 2.7 1.0 0.2 18.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.2 5.2 2.5 0.6 0.0 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.4 4.5 1.3 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 5.3 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.3 2.0 4.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 3.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.2 1.1 3.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.4 5.1 7.1 8.3 10.7 11.8 12.1 11.5 10.0 7.4 5.0 2.7 1.0 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
18-2 98.6% 2.7    2.5 0.2 0.0
17-3 88.7% 4.5    3.5 0.9 0.0
16-4 64.7% 4.8    2.7 2.0 0.2
15-5 34.4% 3.4    1.4 1.4 0.6 0.1
14-6 10.6% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1
13-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.0% 18.0 11.5 5.0 1.3 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 87.1% 54.3% 32.9% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.9%
19-1 1.0% 58.5% 41.0% 17.5% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 29.6%
18-2 2.7% 50.0% 42.6% 7.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.4 12.9%
17-3 5.0% 37.0% 34.0% 3.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.1 3.2 4.7%
16-4 7.4% 26.9% 26.3% 0.6% 11.8 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.1 5.4 0.8%
15-5 10.0% 22.0% 22.0% 12.1 0.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 7.8
14-6 11.5% 18.2% 18.2% 12.3 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.4
13-7 12.1% 13.9% 13.9% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 10.4
12-8 11.8% 8.3% 8.3% 12.7 0.4 0.5 0.1 10.8
11-9 10.7% 6.5% 6.5% 13.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.0
10-10 8.3% 4.2% 4.2% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.9
9-11 7.1% 2.9% 2.9% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.9
8-12 5.1% 1.2% 1.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1
7-13 3.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.4
6-14 2.0% 2.0
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.3% 13.6% 0.6% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.5 6.8 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 85.7 0.7%