Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#133
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#158
Pace63.0#327
Improvement-4.0#348

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#150
First Shot+2.1#111
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#270
Layup/Dunks+0.1#184
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows+2.3#61
Improvement-3.7#357

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#141
First Shot+0.9#140
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#193
Layups/Dunks-2.4#279
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#6
Freethrows-0.7#241
Improvement-0.3#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 6.4% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.3
.500 or above 58.1% 67.0% 42.4%
.500 or above in Conference 62.0% 71.0% 46.1%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.6% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.7% 2.9%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round5.5% 6.4% 4.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 63.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 37 - 69 - 14
Quad 48 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 30   @ Pittsburgh L 68-83 9%     0 - 1 +1.3 +3.0 -1.8
  Nov 16, 2024 129   @ Middle Tennessee W 88-67 38%     1 - 1 +25.8 +21.0 +5.5
  Nov 20, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-61 95%     2 - 1 +0.9 +3.5 -1.2
  Nov 22, 2024 145   Utah Valley L 75-77 65%     2 - 2 -4.5 +6.0 -10.6
  Nov 26, 2024 164   Texas Arlington W 79-66 57%     3 - 2 +12.7 +2.4 +10.0
  Dec 03, 2024 315   Evansville W 63-61 89%     4 - 2 1 - 0 -9.8 -9.1 -0.6
  Dec 08, 2024 270   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-53 84%     5 - 2 +11.2 +7.5 +6.5
  Dec 14, 2024 108   @ Western Kentucky L 76-81 OT 30%     5 - 3 +2.2 -3.0 +6.0
  Dec 18, 2024 150   @ Indiana St. L 74-84 44%     5 - 4 1 - 1 -6.7 -0.7 -5.9
  Dec 22, 2024 40   Nebraska L 49-66 18%     5 - 5 -5.5 -13.6 +7.0
  Dec 23, 2024 193   Charlotte L 90-94 2OT 62%     5 - 6 -5.6 +2.5 -7.5
  Dec 25, 2024 121   Loyola Chicago W 71-68 46%     6 - 6 +5.6 +6.1 -0.3
  Jan 02, 2025 141   Illinois St. W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 05, 2025 80   @ Drake L 58-67 21%    
  Jan 08, 2025 99   @ Northern Iowa L 65-71 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 224   Valparaiso W 76-68 78%    
  Jan 15, 2025 192   @ Illinois-Chicago W 71-70 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 78   Bradley L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 22, 2025 198   @ Southern Illinois W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 130   Belmont W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 29, 2025 315   @ Evansville W 72-65 76%    
  Feb 01, 2025 171   @ Missouri St. L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 04, 2025 80   Drake L 61-64 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 224   @ Valparaiso W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 11, 2025 192   Illinois-Chicago W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 16, 2025 99   Northern Iowa L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 19, 2025 198   Southern Illinois W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 78   @ Bradley L 65-74 22%    
  Feb 25, 2025 150   Indiana St. W 78-74 65%    
  Mar 02, 2025 130   @ Belmont L 74-77 39%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.6 6.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.1 6.3 3.4 0.4 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.6 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.0 7.2 10.5 13.1 14.3 14.5 12.5 9.3 6.0 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 98.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 91.9% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 66.7% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 35.2% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 9.5% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 28.8% 28.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.5% 26.3% 26.3% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.4% 20.6% 20.6% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.1
15-5 3.3% 18.0% 18.0% 12.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7
14-6 6.0% 14.5% 14.5% 12.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.2
13-7 9.3% 11.3% 11.3% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.2
12-8 12.5% 7.7% 7.7% 13.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 11.6
11-9 14.5% 5.0% 5.0% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 13.8
10-10 14.3% 2.9% 2.9% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 13.9
9-11 13.1% 1.8% 1.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.9
8-12 10.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.1 0.0 10.3
7-13 7.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.1
6-14 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.0
5-15 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-16 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 12.9 0.2 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.2 94.4 0.0%