Ohio
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#156
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#227
Pace68.4#208
Improvement+0.9#80

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#90
First Shot+2.6#96
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#127
Layup/Dunks+1.9#113
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#167
Freethrows+2.1#83
Improvement+0.7#84

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#280
First Shot-3.4#287
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#181
Layups/Dunks-0.9#203
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#260
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#296
Freethrows+1.9#84
Improvement+0.3#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.0% 15.4% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 70.9% 81.1% 59.7%
.500 or above in Conference 79.2% 83.8% 74.0%
Conference Champion 15.7% 18.9% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.0% 2.0%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round12.9% 15.3% 10.1%
Second Round1.2% 1.6% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Neutral) - 52.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 64 - 9
Quad 412 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 128   @ James Madison L 78-88 31%     0 - 1 -4.7 +5.8 -10.3
  Nov 09, 2024 177   UNC Asheville W 82-76 65%     1 - 1 +2.1 +2.6 -0.8
  Nov 12, 2024 172   @ Illinois St. L 75-85 42%     1 - 2 -7.7 +10.6 -19.2
  Nov 15, 2024 33   @ Memphis L 70-94 9%     1 - 3 -8.9 -1.6 -5.4
  Nov 21, 2024 165   Middle Tennessee W 74-73 53%    
  Nov 30, 2024 288   Robert Morris W 78-68 81%    
  Dec 07, 2024 279   Morehead St. W 75-66 80%    
  Dec 14, 2024 195   @ Marshall L 77-78 45%    
  Dec 18, 2024 231   Austin Peay W 75-69 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 202   @ Central Michigan L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 07, 2025 330   @ Buffalo W 81-74 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 293   Northern Illinois W 80-70 82%    
  Jan 14, 2025 246   Ball St. W 79-72 74%    
  Jan 18, 2025 139   @ Akron L 73-77 35%    
  Jan 21, 2025 301   @ Eastern Michigan W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 25, 2025 123   Kent St. W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 28, 2025 138   Toledo W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 228   @ Miami (OH) W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 04, 2025 319   Western Michigan W 82-70 85%    
  Feb 11, 2025 264   @ Bowling Green W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 123   @ Kent St. L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 18, 2025 202   Central Michigan W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 139   Akron W 76-74 55%    
  Feb 25, 2025 319   @ Western Michigan W 79-73 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 228   Miami (OH) W 77-71 71%    
  Mar 04, 2025 301   Eastern Michigan W 77-66 82%    
  Mar 07, 2025 138   @ Toledo L 77-81 36%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.1 4.7 3.0 1.3 0.3 15.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.6 4.1 1.2 0.1 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.9 3.4 0.6 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.6 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.4 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.6 5.6 8.0 10.3 12.5 13.0 12.7 11.3 8.8 5.9 3.1 1.3 0.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
16-2 95.2% 3.0    2.5 0.4 0.0
15-3 79.0% 4.7    3.3 1.3 0.1
14-4 46.5% 4.1    1.9 1.7 0.4 0.1
13-5 17.2% 2.0    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.7% 15.7 9.7 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 64.7% 63.0% 1.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.5%
17-1 1.3% 42.2% 42.2% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8
16-2 3.1% 39.0% 39.0% 12.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9
15-3 5.9% 30.8% 30.8% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 4.1
14-4 8.8% 25.2% 25.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 6.6
13-5 11.3% 19.3% 19.3% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 9.1
12-6 12.7% 13.1% 13.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 11.0
11-7 13.0% 10.5% 10.5% 14.8 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 11.6
10-8 12.5% 8.0% 8.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 11.5
9-9 10.3% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.8
8-10 8.0% 3.0% 3.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 7.8
7-11 5.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.5
6-12 3.6% 3.6
5-13 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.2 3.9 3.0 1.3 87.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.6 5.4 8.1 2.7 5.4 10.8 8.1 45.9 13.5