Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#32
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#45
Pace77.5#28
Improvement-0.8#273

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#28
First Shot+4.4#64
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#49
Layup/Dunks+3.8#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#218
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#213
Freethrows+2.4#63
Improvement+0.4#117

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#46
First Shot+5.7#38
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#226
Layups/Dunks+7.1#17
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#252
Freethrows-0.4#208
Improvement-1.2#315
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.7% 4.0% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 13.1% 14.2% 5.4%
Top 6 Seed 27.2% 29.0% 14.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.5% 66.8% 47.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.1% 64.4% 45.4%
Average Seed 6.9 6.9 7.7
.500 or above 96.0% 97.2% 87.2%
.500 or above in Conference 67.9% 69.7% 54.9%
Conference Champion 8.6% 9.1% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 2.1% 5.2%
First Four4.9% 4.9% 5.4%
First Round62.1% 64.5% 44.5%
Second Round39.2% 41.1% 25.2%
Sweet Sixteen16.5% 17.5% 9.5%
Elite Eight6.9% 7.4% 3.6%
Final Four2.8% 3.0% 1.3%
Championship Game1.1% 1.2% 0.4%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Fordham (Neutral) - 88.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 25 - 210 - 10
Quad 35 - 115 - 10
Quad 47 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 330   Binghamton W 108-66 98%     1 - 0 +29.4 +24.0 +3.5
  Nov 08, 2024 311   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 103-54 98%     2 - 0 +37.5 +7.5 +23.5
  Nov 12, 2024 342   St. Francis (PA) W 92-62 99%     3 - 0 +14.8 +1.3 +9.5
  Nov 15, 2024 118   Virginia Tech W 86-64 80%     4 - 0 +25.4 +11.6 +12.8
  Nov 20, 2024 139   Purdue Fort Wayne W 102-89 90%     5 - 0 +11.6 +23.3 -12.1
  Nov 25, 2024 162   Fordham W 84-71 88%    
  Dec 01, 2024 331   Buffalo W 93-68 99%    
  Dec 05, 2024 18   Purdue W 79-78 55%    
  Dec 10, 2024 44   @ Rutgers L 76-77 46%    
  Dec 14, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 89-54 100.0%   
  Dec 21, 2024 144   @ Drexel W 76-68 77%    
  Dec 29, 2024 267   Penn W 88-67 97%    
  Jan 02, 2025 74   Northwestern W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 05, 2025 22   Indiana W 80-78 56%    
  Jan 08, 2025 31   @ Illinois L 82-85 38%    
  Jan 12, 2025 39   Oregon W 79-75 64%    
  Jan 15, 2025 35   @ Michigan St. L 76-78 41%    
  Jan 20, 2025 44   Rutgers W 79-74 66%    
  Jan 24, 2025 41   @ Iowa L 83-85 43%    
  Jan 27, 2025 24   @ Michigan L 77-81 35%    
  Jan 30, 2025 21   Ohio St. W 76-74 55%    
  Feb 04, 2025 90   Minnesota W 75-65 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 27   @ UCLA L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 11, 2025 78   @ USC W 81-79 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 83   Washington W 83-75 77%    
  Feb 19, 2025 65   Nebraska W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 90   @ Minnesota W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 26, 2025 22   @ Indiana L 77-81 36%    
  Mar 01, 2025 30   Maryland W 77-74 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 37   @ Wisconsin L 78-80 42%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.4 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 8.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.3 3.0 3.3 0.7 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.9 1.5 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 3.8 1.0 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.1 2.2 0.1 5.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 3.2 0.7 0.0 5.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.7 0.1 4.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 4.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.2 3.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.9 6.0 7.8 10.1 11.6 12.1 11.7 10.5 8.3 6.1 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 98.6% 0.4    0.4
18-2 96.4% 0.9    0.9 0.1
17-3 88.6% 2.0    1.6 0.4 0.1
16-4 62.7% 2.4    1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 32.1% 2.0    0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.8% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 4.9 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 39.4% 60.6% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.0% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 2.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.2% 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 2.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.9% 99.9% 22.7% 77.2% 3.4 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 6.1% 99.9% 17.4% 82.5% 4.4 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 8.3% 99.4% 13.4% 86.1% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-7 10.5% 97.9% 9.4% 88.5% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.3 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 97.7%
12-8 11.7% 92.7% 5.5% 87.2% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.3 2.7 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.9 92.3%
11-9 12.1% 81.6% 3.0% 78.6% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 2.6 2.1 1.0 0.0 2.2 81.0%
10-10 11.6% 62.6% 2.2% 60.3% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.3 1.8 0.1 4.4 61.7%
9-11 10.1% 33.3% 1.2% 32.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 0.2 6.8 32.4%
8-12 7.8% 11.4% 0.3% 11.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 6.9 11.1%
7-13 6.0% 1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.9 1.2%
6-14 3.9% 3.9
5-15 2.3% 2.3
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 64.5% 6.5% 58.0% 6.9 1.3 2.4 4.1 5.4 6.8 7.3 8.2 8.3 8.0 7.0 5.4 0.5 35.5 62.1%