San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#189
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#237
Pace65.0#281
Improvement+6.0#4

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#140
First Shot-0.1#178
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#119
Layup/Dunks+0.9#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#299
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#215
Freethrows+2.4#54
Improvement+3.9#5

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#249
First Shot-2.2#252
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#207
Layups/Dunks-4.3#328
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#191
Freethrows+0.5#157
Improvement+2.0#43
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.3 14.2
.500 or above 7.3% 10.9% 2.5%
.500 or above in Conference 10.3% 12.3% 7.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.2% 11.9% 17.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Home) - 57.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 5
Quad 21 - 62 - 11
Quad 34 - 56 - 16
Quad 46 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 331   Western Illinois L 55-59 86%     0 - 1 -17.0 -15.4 -2.3
  Nov 08, 2024 277   Pacific L 67-80 69%     0 - 2 -19.3 -9.5 -9.4
  Nov 10, 2024 174   @ Hawaii L 69-80 37%     0 - 3 -8.8 +5.7 -15.7
  Nov 17, 2024 138   UC Santa Barbara L 59-64 52%     0 - 4 -6.8 -2.5 -5.5
  Nov 20, 2024 76   @ USC L 68-82 14%     0 - 5 -3.5 +7.2 -12.1
  Nov 25, 2024 140   UTEP W 71-65 41%     1 - 5 +7.0 +2.1 +5.0
  Nov 26, 2024 157   UNC Greensboro W 69-64 45%     2 - 5 +4.9 +2.2 +3.1
  Nov 27, 2024 261   Long Beach St. W 82-66 66%     3 - 5 +10.5 +17.0 -4.3
  Dec 04, 2024 70   @ New Mexico L 77-83 12%     3 - 6 0 - 1 +5.2 +8.4 -3.2
  Dec 14, 2024 265   Cal Poly W 107-100 OT 76%     4 - 6 -1.6 +5.6 -8.8
  Dec 21, 2024 162   Kennesaw St. W 78-76 57%    
  Dec 28, 2024 58   Boise St. L 67-75 23%    
  Dec 31, 2024 104   Colorado St. L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 04, 2025 108   @ UNLV L 66-74 22%    
  Jan 07, 2025 54   Utah St. L 70-78 22%    
  Jan 11, 2025 271   @ Air Force W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 14, 2025 70   New Mexico L 75-82 28%    
  Jan 18, 2025 52   @ Nevada L 62-76 10%    
  Jan 25, 2025 161   Wyoming W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 28, 2025 41   @ San Diego St. L 62-77 8%    
  Feb 01, 2025 271   Air Force W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 04, 2025 257   @ Fresno St. W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 07, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 64-78 11%    
  Feb 11, 2025 41   San Diego St. L 65-74 21%    
  Feb 14, 2025 52   Nevada L 65-73 23%    
  Feb 19, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 67-81 10%    
  Feb 22, 2025 161   @ Wyoming L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 25, 2025 108   UNLV L 69-71 42%    
  Mar 04, 2025 104   @ Colorado St. L 66-75 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 257   Fresno St. W 77-70 73%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.5 1.0 0.1 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.0 4.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 14.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 6.3 8.2 5.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 24.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.0 8.6 7.8 3.5 0.7 0.1 25.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 4.3 5.9 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 16.1 10th
11th 0.2 1.1 2.6 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.8 11th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.5 7.5 11.3 14.9 15.8 14.8 12.1 8.5 5.3 2.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 54.5% 0.0    0.0
15-5 38.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 3.8% 3.8% 12.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.2% 6.5% 6.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.6% 4.1% 4.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-8 1.2% 4.2% 4.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
11-9 2.8% 1.3% 1.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
10-10 5.3% 0.9% 0.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3
9-11 8.5% 0.9% 0.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4
8-12 12.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1
7-13 14.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 14.8
6-14 15.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.8
5-15 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.9
4-16 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.3
3-17 7.5% 7.5
2-18 3.5% 3.5
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%