St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.5#16
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#31
Pace71.8#103
Improvement-0.3#203

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#15
First Shot+7.8#22
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#146
Layup/Dunks+4.3#52
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#252
Freethrows+1.8#93
Improvement-0.3#216

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#32
First Shot+8.6#10
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#314
Layups/Dunks+3.8#72
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#168
Freethrows+2.4#67
Improvement+0.0#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 1.5% 0.4%
#1 Seed 5.1% 8.1% 2.9%
Top 2 Seed 12.6% 19.2% 7.8%
Top 4 Seed 31.2% 42.7% 22.8%
Top 6 Seed 50.0% 63.2% 40.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.7% 91.3% 78.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.0% 89.5% 75.2%
Average Seed 5.8 5.1 6.4
.500 or above 97.1% 99.1% 95.6%
.500 or above in Conference 86.8% 91.0% 83.9%
Conference Champion 14.9% 18.7% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 0.8%
First Four4.1% 2.8% 5.0%
First Round81.7% 90.1% 75.6%
Second Round59.1% 69.1% 51.9%
Sweet Sixteen30.6% 38.2% 25.1%
Elite Eight14.5% 18.8% 11.4%
Final Four6.6% 8.8% 5.0%
Championship Game2.9% 3.9% 2.1%
National Champion1.2% 1.7% 0.8%

Next Game: Baylor (Neutral) - 42.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 6
Quad 27 - 212 - 8
Quad 36 - 118 - 9
Quad 45 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 161   Fordham W 92-60 94%     1 - 0 +28.8 +14.2 +12.8
  Nov 09, 2024 224   Quinnipiac W 96-73 96%     2 - 0 +16.9 +10.7 +3.5
  Nov 13, 2024 280   Wagner W 66-45 98%     3 - 0 +11.9 -0.9 +14.7
  Nov 17, 2024 63   New Mexico W 85-71 80%     4 - 0 +19.6 +15.6 +4.1
  Nov 21, 2024 11   Baylor L 73-75 42%    
  Nov 24, 2024 55   Georgia W 78-73 69%    
  Nov 30, 2024 243   Harvard W 84-62 98%    
  Dec 07, 2024 66   Kansas St. W 78-69 80%    
  Dec 11, 2024 159   Bryant W 90-73 94%    
  Dec 17, 2024 111   @ DePaul W 79-72 75%    
  Dec 20, 2024 77   @ Providence W 71-67 65%    
  Dec 28, 2024 213   Delaware W 87-67 96%    
  Dec 31, 2024 17   @ Creighton L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 04, 2025 85   Butler W 81-70 83%    
  Jan 07, 2025 36   @ Xavier L 77-78 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 69   Villanova W 78-69 80%    
  Jan 14, 2025 126   Georgetown W 83-68 91%    
  Jan 18, 2025 88   @ Seton Hall W 67-62 69%    
  Jan 22, 2025 36   Xavier W 81-75 70%    
  Jan 28, 2025 126   @ Georgetown W 80-71 78%    
  Feb 01, 2025 77   Providence W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 04, 2025 15   Marquette W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 07, 2025 2   @ Connecticut L 68-77 22%    
  Feb 12, 2025 69   @ Villanova W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 16, 2025 17   Creighton W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 19, 2025 111   @ DePaul W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 23, 2025 2   Connecticut L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 26, 2025 85   @ Butler W 78-73 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 88   Seton Hall W 70-59 84%    
  Mar 08, 2025 15   @ Marquette L 74-77 39%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.9 4.2 2.8 1.3 0.3 14.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.2 6.7 4.7 1.9 0.3 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.5 5.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 19.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.7 5.9 4.2 1.1 0.1 15.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.3 4.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.5 5.5 7.6 10.1 11.9 13.3 12.7 11.5 9.0 6.1 3.1 1.3 0.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.2 0.0
18-2 90.5% 2.8    2.3 0.5 0.0
17-3 68.5% 4.2    2.7 1.4 0.1
16-4 42.9% 3.9    1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0
15-5 16.8% 1.9    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.9% 14.9 9.0 4.7 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 44.8% 55.2% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.3% 100.0% 42.7% 57.3% 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.1% 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 1.8 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.1% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 2.4 1.5 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.0% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 3.1 1.0 2.2 2.5 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.5% 99.9% 19.7% 80.1% 4.2 0.3 1.1 2.5 3.1 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 12.7% 99.3% 15.8% 83.4% 5.4 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.4 2.8 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
13-7 13.3% 97.5% 11.1% 86.4% 6.6 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 2.8 2.6 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.3 97.2%
12-8 11.9% 92.9% 7.4% 85.5% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.8 92.3%
11-9 10.1% 82.2% 5.7% 76.5% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.1 0.0 1.8 81.1%
10-10 7.6% 66.4% 4.3% 62.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.1 2.6 64.9%
9-11 5.5% 35.3% 2.8% 32.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.1 3.5 33.5%
8-12 3.5% 12.8% 1.8% 11.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.1 11.2%
7-13 2.1% 2.7% 1.1% 1.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 1.7%
6-14 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.7%
5-15 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 14.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 83.7% 13.9% 69.8% 5.8 5.1 7.5 8.8 9.8 9.6 9.3 8.3 7.5 7.0 6.0 4.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 16.3 81.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 85.0 15.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 78.3 21.7