St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.9#13
Expected Predictive Rating+14.2#36
Pace72.6#81
Improvement-0.2#189

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#20
First Shot+3.0#92
After Offensive Rebound+5.1#5
Layup/Dunks+2.0#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#290
Freethrows-0.1#183
Improvement-0.9#258

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#12
First Shot+8.7#6
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#260
Layups/Dunks+3.2#74
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#43
Freethrows+1.0#118
Improvement+0.7#133
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
#1 Seed 5.0% 5.1% 2.4%
Top 2 Seed 13.6% 13.8% 6.3%
Top 4 Seed 37.3% 37.6% 18.9%
Top 6 Seed 60.2% 60.6% 41.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.9% 94.1% 86.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.9% 92.0% 83.2%
Average Seed 5.5 5.5 6.5
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 97.8% 94.6%
Conference Champion 37.1% 37.3% 27.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four2.5% 2.4% 4.8%
First Round92.9% 93.1% 83.7%
Second Round71.1% 71.4% 56.9%
Sweet Sixteen38.5% 38.8% 26.0%
Elite Eight19.0% 19.1% 12.1%
Final Four8.8% 8.9% 6.2%
Championship Game3.9% 3.9% 1.9%
National Champion1.7% 1.7% 0.7%

Next Game: Delaware (Home) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 6
Quad 29 - 214 - 8
Quad 36 - 020 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 169   Fordham W 92-60 95%     1 - 0 +28.4 +13.2 +13.4
  Nov 09, 2024 245   Quinnipiac W 96-73 98%     2 - 0 +15.2 +9.6 +2.9
  Nov 13, 2024 309   Wagner W 66-45 99%     3 - 0 +9.8 -1.6 +13.3
  Nov 17, 2024 70   New Mexico W 85-71 84%     4 - 0 +19.2 +14.7 +4.6
  Nov 21, 2024 12   Baylor L 98-99 2OT 49%     4 - 1 +15.1 +8.4 +6.9
  Nov 22, 2024 90   Virginia W 80-55 82%     5 - 1 +31.2 +23.4 +10.7
  Nov 24, 2024 32   Georgia L 63-66 63%     5 - 2 +9.5 -0.7 +10.0
  Nov 30, 2024 231   Harvard W 77-64 97%     6 - 2 +6.3 +3.5 +2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 68   Kansas St. W 88-71 84%     7 - 2 +22.3 +10.9 +10.1
  Dec 11, 2024 178   Bryant W 99-77 96%     8 - 2 +18.1 +13.3 +2.5
  Dec 17, 2024 103   DePaul W 89-61 90%     9 - 2 1 - 0 +30.0 +17.3 +12.8
  Dec 20, 2024 73   @ Providence W 72-70 70%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +12.6 +4.1 +8.4
  Dec 28, 2024 219   Delaware W 90-68 98%    
  Dec 31, 2024 48   @ Creighton W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 04, 2025 74   Butler W 81-70 86%    
  Jan 07, 2025 47   @ Xavier W 78-76 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 44   Villanova W 77-69 78%    
  Jan 14, 2025 71   Georgetown W 80-69 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 116   @ Seton Hall W 70-60 82%    
  Jan 22, 2025 47   Xavier W 81-73 78%    
  Jan 28, 2025 71   @ Georgetown W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 73   Providence W 75-64 85%    
  Feb 04, 2025 18   Marquette W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 07, 2025 11   @ Connecticut L 74-78 35%    
  Feb 12, 2025 44   @ Villanova W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 16, 2025 48   Creighton W 80-71 78%    
  Feb 19, 2025 103   @ DePaul W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 23, 2025 11   Connecticut W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 26, 2025 74   @ Butler W 78-73 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 116   Seton Hall W 73-57 93%    
  Mar 08, 2025 18   @ Marquette L 76-78 42%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.8 9.6 9.6 6.4 2.9 0.5 37.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.4 7.4 9.0 5.2 1.6 0.1 27.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.7 5.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 18.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.4 8.7 12.7 14.9 16.7 15.0 11.3 6.6 2.9 0.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9 0.0
18-2 97.9% 6.4    6.0 0.5
17-3 85.7% 9.6    7.7 1.9 0.1
16-4 63.8% 9.6    5.9 3.3 0.3
15-5 34.5% 5.8    2.4 2.6 0.7 0.1
14-6 13.0% 1.9    0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 37.1% 37.1 25.8 9.2 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 56.4% 43.6% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.9% 100.0% 48.3% 51.7% 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.6% 100.0% 41.3% 58.7% 2.2 1.7 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 11.3% 100.0% 37.7% 62.3% 3.0 1.1 2.9 3.6 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.0% 99.9% 30.6% 69.3% 4.0 0.4 1.5 3.4 4.5 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.8%
15-5 16.7% 99.7% 27.4% 72.2% 5.2 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.7 4.1 3.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.5%
14-6 14.9% 98.7% 22.6% 76.2% 6.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.4 3.6 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.4%
13-7 12.7% 95.9% 17.7% 78.2% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.7 3.0 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 95.0%
12-8 8.7% 88.8% 13.5% 75.3% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.7 0.6 0.0 1.0 87.1%
11-9 5.4% 77.3% 11.8% 65.5% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.0 1.2 74.2%
10-10 3.0% 58.1% 6.7% 51.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 55.1%
9-11 1.4% 29.0% 4.8% 24.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0 25.4%
8-12 0.6% 10.4% 3.9% 6.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.7%
7-13 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 11.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 93.9% 25.5% 68.4% 5.5 5.0 8.6 10.8 12.9 11.8 11.1 10.3 8.8 6.9 5.2 2.5 0.1 6.1 91.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 80.7 17.9 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 65.1 30.2 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 47.6 40.5 11.9