Texas A&M - Commerce
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.1#352
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#184
Pace68.7#198
Improvement-0.3#220

Offense
Total Offense-8.1#355
First Shot-7.5#351
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#210
Layup/Dunks-2.5#264
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#302
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#197
Freethrows-2.0#282
Improvement-0.3#225

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#335
First Shot-2.5#264
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#319
Layups/Dunks-2.5#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#202
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#208
Freethrows+0.6#157
Improvement+0.0#192
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 n/a 15.8
.500 or above 1.9% 9.5% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 10.0% 22.1% 10.0%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 27.3% 28.4% 27.3%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 0.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 51 - 11
Quad 48 - 128 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 38   @ Iowa L 63-91 0.5%   
  Nov 06, 2024 238   @ South Dakota L 69-81 13%    
  Nov 08, 2024 24   @ Texas A&M L 55-87 1%     0 - 1 -15.6 -7.8 -9.1
  Nov 13, 2024 268   Southern W 70-68 33%     1 - 1 -6.5 -5.2 -1.3
  Nov 19, 2024 2   @ Connecticut L 46-81 0.3%    1 - 2 -11.7 -16.8 +6.1
  Nov 21, 2024 51   @ Oklahoma L 56-84 2%     1 - 3 -15.6 -9.4 -6.5
  Nov 25, 2024 339   @ Stonehill L 65-70 32%    
  Nov 30, 2024 137   Purdue Fort Wayne L 69-81 14%    
  Dec 05, 2024 358   @ Houston Christian L 72-74 43%    
  Dec 07, 2024 309   @ Incarnate Word L 68-76 24%    
  Dec 15, 2024 195   South Alabama L 66-74 23%    
  Dec 18, 2024 212   Abilene Christian L 66-74 25%    
  Dec 21, 2024 123   @ South Florida L 60-79 5%    
  Jan 04, 2025 95   McNeese St. L 60-76 8%    
  Jan 06, 2025 229   Nicholls St. L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 11, 2025 316   @ Northwestern St. L 66-74 25%    
  Jan 13, 2025 190   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 68-83 10%    
  Jan 18, 2025 356   New Orleans W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 20, 2025 272   SE Louisiana L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 25, 2025 292   @ Lamar L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 27, 2025 202   @ Stephen F. Austin L 58-72 11%    
  Feb 01, 2025 316   Northwestern St. L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 03, 2025 223   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 229   @ Nicholls St. L 62-75 13%    
  Feb 10, 2025 95   @ McNeese St. L 57-79 3%    
  Feb 15, 2025 292   Lamar L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 17, 2025 202   Stephen F. Austin L 61-69 24%    
  Feb 22, 2025 272   @ SE Louisiana L 64-74 19%    
  Feb 24, 2025 356   @ New Orleans L 72-74 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 309   Incarnate Word L 71-73 44%    
  Mar 03, 2025 358   Houston Christian W 75-71 64%    
Projected Record 8 - 23 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.2 1.2 0.1 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.6 1.8 0.3 10.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 5.1 5.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 15.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.4 6.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 18.5 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 4.3 7.2 5.5 1.6 0.2 19.9 11th
12th 0.7 3.0 5.3 5.3 3.1 0.7 0.1 18.2 12th
Total 0.7 3.0 6.4 10.0 13.0 14.0 13.8 12.2 9.7 7.1 4.5 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 87.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 46.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-6 2.9% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 12.8% 12.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.1% 15.5% 15.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.3% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.8
12-8 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.5
11-9 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7
10-10 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.5
9-11 7.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.1
8-12 9.7% 9.7
7-13 12.2% 12.2
6-14 13.8% 13.8
5-15 14.0% 14.0
4-16 13.0% 13.0
3-17 10.0% 10.0
2-18 6.4% 6.4
1-19 3.0% 3.0
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%