Toledo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#209
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#136
Pace72.3#96
Improvement-5.4#363

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#118
First Shot+1.0#148
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#120
Layup/Dunks+2.6#96
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#297
Freethrows-1.1#247
Improvement-2.4#338

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#304
First Shot-1.5#220
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#325
Layups/Dunks-2.5#265
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#285
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#220
Freethrows+3.3#26
Improvement-3.1#360
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 9.5% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 65.3% 76.6% 54.1%
.500 or above in Conference 70.9% 75.7% 66.1%
Conference Champion 8.5% 10.7% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.5% 2.4%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round7.9% 9.5% 6.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Away) - 49.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 10
Quad 411 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 126   @ Troy L 74-84 25%     0 - 1 -5.0 -0.6 -3.7
  Nov 09, 2024 182   @ Marshall W 90-80 35%     1 - 1 +12.0 +12.0 -0.7
  Nov 13, 2024 141   Wright St. W 86-77 49%     2 - 1 +7.3 +7.3 -0.3
  Nov 16, 2024 308   @ Detroit Mercy W 82-67 60%     3 - 1 +10.4 +4.7 +5.2
  Nov 21, 2024 338   Stetson W 103-78 79%     4 - 1 +14.4 +18.5 -5.4
  Nov 22, 2024 176   Jacksonville St. W 82-80 45%     5 - 1 +1.2 +13.0 -11.6
  Nov 23, 2024 107   UC San Diego L 45-80 29%     5 - 2 -31.2 -24.4 -8.1
  Nov 30, 2024 144   Oakland L 52-85 50%     5 - 3 -34.9 -15.8 -22.5
  Dec 14, 2024 247   @ Youngstown St. L 74-75 50%    
  Dec 18, 2024 6   @ Houston L 60-83 2%    
  Dec 29, 2024 17   @ Purdue L 66-86 3%    
  Jan 04, 2025 302   @ Western Michigan W 79-77 59%    
  Jan 07, 2025 297   Eastern Michigan W 79-71 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 194   Central Michigan W 77-74 58%    
  Jan 14, 2025 142   @ Akron L 77-83 29%    
  Jan 18, 2025 268   @ Ball St. W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 21, 2025 112   Kent St. L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 24, 2025 265   @ Bowling Green W 78-77 52%    
  Jan 28, 2025 154   @ Ohio L 78-83 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 337   Northern Illinois W 82-70 85%    
  Feb 04, 2025 330   Buffalo W 85-74 83%    
  Feb 11, 2025 197   @ Miami (OH) L 75-78 38%    
  Feb 15, 2025 297   @ Eastern Michigan W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 18, 2025 268   Ball St. W 78-71 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 265   Bowling Green W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 25, 2025 112   @ Kent St. L 66-74 23%    
  Mar 01, 2025 330   @ Buffalo W 82-77 66%    
  Mar 04, 2025 142   Akron L 80-81 49%    
  Mar 07, 2025 154   Ohio W 81-80 53%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.8 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 8.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.6 2.6 0.6 0.1 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 5.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.6 6.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 5.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.8 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 2.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 2.8 5.3 7.8 11.0 13.2 13.6 13.3 11.6 9.0 5.7 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 94.6% 1.1    1.0 0.1
15-3 78.2% 2.2    1.6 0.6 0.1
14-4 48.5% 2.8    1.2 1.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 17.2% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.5% 8.5 4.5 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 48.7% 48.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 36.3% 36.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.2% 30.2% 30.2% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8
15-3 2.9% 22.5% 22.5% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.2
14-4 5.7% 20.2% 20.2% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.5
13-5 9.0% 14.9% 14.9% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 7.7
12-6 11.6% 11.8% 11.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 10.3
11-7 13.3% 9.3% 9.3% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 12.0
10-8 13.6% 6.4% 6.4% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 12.7
9-9 13.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 12.6
8-10 11.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.1 0.1 10.8
7-11 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.8
6-12 5.3% 5.3
5-13 2.8% 2.8
4-14 1.6% 1.6
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.6 2.8 0.6 92.0 0.0%