Toledo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#194
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#140
Pace72.9#74
Improvement+0.1#177

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#102
First Shot+1.2#140
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#79
Layup/Dunks+2.6#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#342
Freethrows+0.0#172
Improvement+0.6#147

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#306
First Shot-3.8#300
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#251
Layups/Dunks-5.5#348
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#268
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#223
Freethrows+3.0#21
Improvement-0.5#210
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 11.6% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 84.4% 91.5% 75.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 97.8% 91.7%
Conference Champion 9.0% 12.7% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round10.0% 11.5% 8.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Home) - 55.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 35 - 55 - 10
Quad 413 - 318 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 117   @ Troy L 74-84 25%     0 - 1 -4.5 -0.1 -3.8
  Nov 09, 2024 179   @ Marshall W 90-80 37%     1 - 1 +11.9 +12.0 -0.9
  Nov 13, 2024 177   Wright St. W 86-77 58%     2 - 1 +5.5 +6.2 -1.0
  Nov 16, 2024 331   @ Detroit Mercy W 82-67 73%     3 - 1 +7.1 +3.8 +2.8
  Nov 21, 2024 348   Stetson W 103-78 84%     4 - 1 +12.9 +16.6 -4.9
  Nov 22, 2024 162   Jacksonville St. W 82-80 43%     5 - 1 +2.2 +12.6 -10.2
  Nov 23, 2024 79   UC San Diego L 45-80 20%     5 - 2 -27.8 -22.9 -6.2
  Nov 30, 2024 178   Oakland L 52-85 58%     5 - 3 -36.6 -17.5 -22.5
  Dec 14, 2024 208   @ Youngstown St. L 87-93 42%     5 - 4 -5.6 +15.2 -20.7
  Dec 18, 2024 3   @ Houston L 49-78 2%     5 - 5 -4.7 -11.3 +7.2
  Dec 29, 2024 10   @ Purdue L 64-83 3%     5 - 6 +1.4 +2.4 -1.7
  Jan 04, 2025 304   @ Western Michigan W 76-70 64%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +0.8 -4.2 +4.8
  Jan 07, 2025 313   Eastern Michigan W 90-87 82%     7 - 6 2 - 0 -8.4 +3.7 -12.4
  Jan 10, 2025 225   Central Michigan W 69-67 68%     8 - 6 3 - 0 -4.4 +2.0 -6.2
  Jan 14, 2025 124   @ Akron L 78-85 26%     8 - 7 3 - 1 -1.7 +5.2 -6.7
  Jan 18, 2025 250   @ Ball St. W 93-75 53%     9 - 7 4 - 1 +15.7 +26.2 -8.7
  Jan 21, 2025 159   Kent St. W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 24, 2025 285   @ Bowling Green W 81-78 60%    
  Jan 28, 2025 147   @ Ohio L 80-85 29%    
  Feb 01, 2025 356   Northern Illinois W 87-72 92%    
  Feb 04, 2025 329   Buffalo W 87-75 87%    
  Feb 08, 2025 149   James Madison W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 11, 2025 153   @ Miami (OH) L 77-82 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 313   @ Eastern Michigan W 82-78 65%    
  Feb 18, 2025 250   Ball St. W 82-76 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 285   Bowling Green W 84-76 79%    
  Feb 25, 2025 159   @ Kent St. L 70-75 32%    
  Mar 01, 2025 329   @ Buffalo W 84-78 70%    
  Mar 04, 2025 124   Akron L 83-84 47%    
  Mar 07, 2025 147   Ohio W 83-82 51%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.4 1.4 0.2 9.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.0 6.5 5.8 1.6 0.1 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.6 10.2 8.1 1.9 0.1 24.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.7 10.9 7.3 1.5 0.1 23.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 6.3 4.4 0.5 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.1 1.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.7 8.0 12.9 19.4 20.1 17.2 10.6 5.2 1.5 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 90.9% 1.4    1.1 0.3 0.0
15-3 66.8% 3.4    1.8 1.5 0.2
14-4 26.6% 2.8    0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1
13-5 6.0% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 3.8 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 1.5% 27.3% 27.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.1
15-3 5.2% 21.4% 21.4% 14.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 4.1
14-4 10.6% 17.6% 17.6% 14.5 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 8.7
13-5 17.2% 12.2% 12.2% 14.7 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.2 15.1
12-6 20.1% 10.0% 10.0% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 18.1
11-7 19.4% 8.1% 8.1% 15.3 0.1 0.9 0.5 17.8
10-8 12.9% 4.6% 4.6% 15.6 0.2 0.4 12.3
9-9 8.0% 3.9% 3.9% 15.6 0.1 0.2 7.7
8-10 3.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 3.6
7-11 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.9 2.0 89.9 0.0%