Xavier
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.6#36
Expected Predictive Rating+11.0#45
Pace73.6#72
Improvement+2.7#6

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#34
First Shot+6.4#35
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#155
Layup/Dunks+4.1#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#259
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#178
Freethrows+3.6#36
Improvement+1.2#39

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#54
First Shot+4.2#61
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#150
Layups/Dunks+1.5#132
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#153
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#236
Freethrows+3.5#37
Improvement+1.5#30
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.8% 2.9% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 9.9% 10.0% 2.8%
Top 6 Seed 20.8% 21.0% 6.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.0% 58.5% 32.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 55.0% 55.4% 31.0%
Average Seed 7.4 7.4 8.4
.500 or above 90.0% 90.4% 68.4%
.500 or above in Conference 70.0% 70.3% 48.9%
Conference Champion 6.1% 6.1% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 2.0% 5.9%
First Four6.4% 6.4% 5.9%
First Round54.9% 55.4% 29.3%
Second Round33.1% 33.4% 13.5%
Sweet Sixteen13.4% 13.5% 5.2%
Elite Eight5.7% 5.8% 1.8%
Final Four2.2% 2.2% 0.7%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.6%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Siena (Home) - 98.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 8
Quad 25 - 39 - 10
Quad 35 - 114 - 11
Quad 46 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 266   Texas Southern W 78-69 96%     1 - 0 +0.7 -0.7 +1.1
  Nov 08, 2024 361   IU Indianapolis W 94-80 99%     2 - 0 -3.7 +16.2 -19.4
  Nov 12, 2024 320   Jackson St. W 94-57 97%     3 - 0 +25.2 +12.1 +11.6
  Nov 16, 2024 73   Wake Forest W 75-60 74%     4 - 0 +19.8 +8.5 +12.1
  Nov 20, 2024 306   Siena W 83-60 98%    
  Nov 25, 2024 72   South Carolina W 77-73 64%    
  Dec 01, 2024 321   South Carolina St. W 87-64 98%    
  Dec 05, 2024 60   @ TCU L 76-77 49%    
  Dec 10, 2024 333   Morgan St. W 92-67 99%    
  Dec 14, 2024 18   @ Cincinnati L 73-78 31%    
  Dec 18, 2024 2   @ Connecticut L 67-79 15%    
  Dec 21, 2024 15   Marquette L 76-77 50%    
  Dec 31, 2024 88   Seton Hall W 69-60 78%    
  Jan 03, 2025 126   @ Georgetown W 79-73 71%    
  Jan 07, 2025 16   St. John's W 78-77 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 111   @ DePaul W 79-74 66%    
  Jan 14, 2025 69   Villanova W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 15   @ Marquette L 73-79 29%    
  Jan 22, 2025 16   @ St. John's L 75-81 30%    
  Jan 25, 2025 2   Connecticut L 70-76 31%    
  Jan 29, 2025 17   @ Creighton L 74-80 31%    
  Feb 04, 2025 126   Georgetown W 82-70 85%    
  Feb 09, 2025 69   @ Villanova W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 77   @ Providence W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 111   DePaul W 82-71 82%    
  Feb 18, 2025 85   Butler W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 23, 2025 88   @ Seton Hall W 66-63 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 17   Creighton W 77-76 51%    
  Mar 05, 2025 85   @ Butler W 77-75 56%    
  Mar 08, 2025 77   Providence W 73-66 73%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 3.6 2.0 0.6 0.1 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.9 5.1 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 6.1 3.7 0.9 0.1 15.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.0 5.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 16.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.5 4.5 1.7 0.3 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.5 5.5 7.6 9.9 11.6 12.3 12.5 11.0 8.9 6.4 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 92.2% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
17-3 71.8% 1.5    1.0 0.4 0.0
16-4 44.1% 1.7    0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 18.8% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.0% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 39.0% 61.0% 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 38.2% 61.8% 2.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.1% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 2.8 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.9% 99.9% 20.1% 79.9% 3.9 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 6.4% 99.6% 16.6% 82.9% 5.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 8.9% 97.4% 12.7% 84.7% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 97.0%
13-7 11.0% 92.7% 8.8% 84.0% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.8 92.0%
12-8 12.5% 83.4% 5.7% 77.7% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.4 2.2 1.3 0.1 2.1 82.4%
11-9 12.3% 64.5% 4.4% 60.1% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.1 1.9 0.1 4.4 62.9%
10-10 11.6% 43.3% 2.6% 40.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 1.9 0.2 6.6 41.8%
9-11 9.9% 17.3% 1.4% 15.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.2 8.1 16.1%
8-12 7.6% 5.1% 1.1% 4.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.2 4.0%
7-13 5.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.6%
6-14 3.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.1%
5-15 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 2.0
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 58.0% 6.8% 51.2% 7.4 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.0 5.0 5.9 6.6 7.3 8.0 7.7 7.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.0 55.0%