Yale
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#98
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#187
Pace67.4#239
Improvement-0.6#254

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#75
First Shot+2.3#103
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#99
Layup/Dunks-0.9#216
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#180
Freethrows+0.6#156
Improvement-1.0#319

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#131
First Shot+3.6#75
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#309
Layups/Dunks+3.0#89
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#138
Freethrows-1.8#278
Improvement+0.4#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.2% 39.5% 30.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 13.3
.500 or above 93.7% 95.4% 83.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.0% 96.5% 92.8%
Conference Champion 50.6% 52.3% 41.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round38.1% 39.5% 30.6%
Second Round7.3% 7.8% 4.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.1% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Neutral) - 84.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 36 - 7
Quad 412 - 218 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 225   Quinnipiac W 88-62 85%     1 - 0 +20.0 +11.2 +7.9
  Nov 08, 2024 156   @ Illinois-Chicago L 79-91 58%     1 - 1 -8.8 +0.4 -8.1
  Nov 11, 2024 18   @ Purdue L 84-92 13%     1 - 2 +9.2 +14.3 -4.8
  Nov 16, 2024 90   @ Minnesota L 56-59 36%     1 - 3 +5.8 +5.8 -0.9
  Nov 20, 2024 302   @ Stony Brook W 86-64 82%     2 - 3 +17.5 +9.6 +7.8
  Nov 23, 2024 271   Fairfield W 76-65 85%    
  Nov 24, 2024 216   Delaware W 78-70 77%    
  Dec 02, 2024 113   @ Rhode Island L 77-79 44%    
  Dec 07, 2024 151   Vermont W 69-61 76%    
  Dec 20, 2024 140   Akron W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 01, 2025 231   Howard W 80-68 85%    
  Jan 11, 2025 224   Brown W 77-66 85%    
  Jan 18, 2025 190   @ Columbia W 79-75 62%    
  Jan 20, 2025 339   Dartmouth W 81-61 96%    
  Jan 25, 2025 244   Harvard W 77-65 86%    
  Jan 31, 2025 109   @ Princeton L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 267   @ Penn W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 170   @ Cornell W 81-78 60%    
  Feb 14, 2025 267   Penn W 80-66 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 109   Princeton W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 21, 2025 170   Cornell W 84-75 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 190   Columbia W 82-72 80%    
  Feb 28, 2025 339   @ Dartmouth W 78-64 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 244   @ Harvard W 74-68 71%    
  Mar 08, 2025 224   @ Brown W 74-69 67%    
Projected Record 17 - 8 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.2 12.9 15.9 11.4 4.3 50.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 6.1 10.1 6.5 1.6 25.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.4 1.7 0.1 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.9 0.6 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.3 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 4.7 8.6 12.9 17.1 19.5 17.5 11.4 4.3 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 4.3    4.3
13-1 100.0% 11.4    10.9 0.5
12-2 91.0% 15.9    12.8 3.1 0.0
11-3 66.1% 12.9    7.3 5.0 0.6 0.0
10-4 30.7% 5.2    1.6 2.5 1.0 0.1
9-5 6.8% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 50.6% 50.6 37.0 11.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 4.3% 68.0% 66.1% 1.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 1.4 5.6%
13-1 11.4% 59.8% 59.7% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 1.3 0.2 4.6 0.2%
12-2 17.5% 49.8% 49.8% 12.5 0.3 4.3 3.4 0.7 0.0 8.8
11-3 19.5% 41.3% 41.3% 13.0 0.0 2.3 3.8 1.7 0.2 11.5
10-4 17.1% 34.3% 34.3% 13.5 0.6 2.5 2.2 0.6 0.0 11.2
9-5 12.9% 28.7% 28.7% 13.9 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.8 0.1 9.2
8-6 8.6% 20.6% 20.6% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 6.8
7-7 4.7% 7.0% 7.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.4
6-8 2.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.5
5-9 1.0% 1.0
4-10 0.4% 0.4
3-11 0.1% 0.1
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 38.2% 38.1% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.5 12.1 12.4 7.1 2.6 0.4 61.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 7.3 0.3 1.6 1.6 9.3 16.7 17.8 10.1 7.7 7.9 7.1 16.4 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 18.9% 10.8 2.7 2.7 9.5 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 21.6% 10.7 1.4 4.1 14.9 1.4