Yale
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#100
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#167
Pace68.4#197
Improvement+1.8#71

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#76
First Shot+1.9#116
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#63
Layup/Dunks-0.7#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#223
Freethrows+1.6#90
Improvement-2.4#334

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#128
First Shot+3.1#83
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#311
Layups/Dunks+6.3#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#223
Freethrows-3.2#342
Improvement+4.2#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.4% 40.4% 33.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.6 13.1
.500 or above 95.0% 98.4% 91.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.6% 96.9% 94.1%
Conference Champion 50.4% 54.6% 45.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round37.4% 40.4% 33.9%
Second Round6.6% 7.8% 5.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 2.0% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Away) - 55.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 47 - 8
Quad 411 - 218 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 245   Quinnipiac W 88-62 88%     1 - 0 +18.2 +10.1 +7.4
  Nov 08, 2024 199   @ Illinois-Chicago L 79-91 65%     1 - 1 -10.6 -0.2 -9.4
  Nov 11, 2024 20   @ Purdue L 84-92 13%     1 - 2 +9.3 +14.1 -4.5
  Nov 16, 2024 114   @ Minnesota L 56-59 46%     1 - 3 +3.4 +4.4 -1.9
  Nov 20, 2024 307   @ Stony Brook W 86-64 84%     2 - 3 +16.9 +9.5 +7.1
  Nov 23, 2024 280   Fairfield W 91-66 87%     3 - 3 +18.4 +26.9 -4.7
  Nov 24, 2024 219   Delaware L 94-100 77%     3 - 4 -8.6 +11.4 -19.6
  Dec 02, 2024 99   @ Rhode Island L 78-84 38%     3 - 5 +2.5 +4.0 -1.1
  Dec 07, 2024 184   Vermont W 65-50 81%     4 - 5 +10.8 +0.9 +11.7
  Dec 20, 2024 163   Akron W 74-58 71%     5 - 5 +15.7 -1.3 +16.7
  Dec 21, 2024 140   @ UTEP W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 01, 2025 255   Howard W 82-69 90%    
  Jan 11, 2025 156   Brown W 75-67 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 177   @ Columbia W 78-75 62%    
  Jan 20, 2025 312   Dartmouth W 83-66 94%    
  Jan 25, 2025 231   Harvard W 77-65 87%    
  Jan 31, 2025 117   @ Princeton L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 01, 2025 274   @ Penn W 76-68 78%    
  Feb 08, 2025 120   @ Cornell L 80-81 49%    
  Feb 14, 2025 274   Penn W 79-65 91%    
  Feb 15, 2025 117   Princeton W 77-71 69%    
  Feb 21, 2025 120   Cornell W 83-77 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 177   Columbia W 81-72 79%    
  Feb 28, 2025 312   @ Dartmouth W 80-69 83%    
  Mar 01, 2025 231   @ Harvard W 74-68 70%    
  Mar 08, 2025 156   @ Brown W 72-70 58%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 7.5 14.7 14.9 9.0 2.7 50.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 7.2 9.5 4.5 0.6 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.0 5.7 1.5 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.3 0.6 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.7 0.3 3.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 5.7 10.1 14.9 18.5 19.3 15.5 9.0 2.7 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 2.7    2.7
13-1 100.0% 9.0    8.8 0.2
12-2 96.3% 14.9    12.8 2.1 0.0
11-3 76.4% 14.7    9.1 5.1 0.5 0.0
10-4 40.6% 7.5    2.4 3.7 1.3 0.1
9-5 9.7% 1.4    0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 50.4% 50.4 35.9 11.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 2.7% 63.5% 63.3% 0.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.0 0.4%
13-1 9.0% 57.5% 57.5% 12.0 0.7 3.5 0.9 0.0 3.8
12-2 15.5% 50.0% 50.0% 12.5 0.2 4.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 7.7
11-3 19.3% 43.8% 43.8% 12.8 0.0 2.6 4.7 1.1 0.0 10.8
10-4 18.5% 37.5% 37.5% 13.2 1.2 3.5 2.1 0.2 11.6
9-5 14.9% 31.3% 31.3% 13.6 0.3 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 10.3
8-6 10.1% 23.4% 23.4% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.0 7.7
7-7 5.7% 6.4% 6.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.3
6-8 2.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.7
5-9 1.1% 1.1
4-10 0.4% 0.4
3-11 0.1% 0.1
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 37.4% 37.4% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.6 12.3 14.7 6.7 1.7 0.1 62.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 10.3 0.2 0.5 1.9 5.0 3.0 3.7 9.6 14.0 38.9 23.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 1.2% 11.0 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%