Albany
America East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.5 #316
Expected Predictive Rating -12.6 #343
Pace 66.2 #250
Improvement +2.0 #99

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #302 C- C- D- F C
Defense #311 C F D C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #175 1.14 #199 -0.3 #185
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #197 0.83 #69 +0.4 #158
Three Pointers 42% #169 0.89 #326 -2.3 #262
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #241 -2.2 #241
Freethrows 0.23 #351 65% #357 0.15 #359
Second Chance 31.6% #153 0.94 #296 0.30 #217
Turnovers 19.9% #341
Total Offense -4.8 #302

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #117 1.16 #178 -1.3 #221
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #255 0.74 #151 +1.1 #112
Three Pointers 41% #174 1.04 #224 -0.7 #218
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #210 -0.9 #210
Freethrows 0.31 #221 76% #341 0.24 #262
Second Chance 35.5% #335 1.20 #351 0.43 #358
Turnovers 14.1% #323
Total Defense -4.7 #311

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #177 1.0% #263
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.5% #253 0.8% #203
Possession Length 18.9 #332 16.6 #78
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #184 0.17 #175
Improvement +0.3 #161 +1.7 #85

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 8.7% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 33.1% 50.1% 18.2%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.9% 1.5% 7.9%
First Four7.4% 8.7% 6.1%
First Round3.8% 4.6% 3.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bryant (Away) - 46.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 47 - 109 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 95 @Marquette L 53 - 80 5% -13  0 - 1 -18 -20 F B- F +4 C+ B+ A-
 Sat, Nov 8 173 @Massachusetts L 62 - 83 14% -7  0 - 2 -19 -13 F C F -5 A F C-
 Fri, Nov 14 119 @Rhode Island L 61 - 80 8% -6  0 - 3 -13 -3 F A+ D- -11 B+ F F
 Fri, Nov 21 174 @Siena L 63 - 73 14% -8  0 - 4 -8 +0 A+ F D+ -10 D+ F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 222 Colgate L 67 - 69 28% +2  0 - 5 -5 -3 B- D- F+ -3 C- C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 169 Fordham L 68 - 88 20% -11  0 - 6 -21 -1 D B- C+ -21 F F B
 Sat, Dec 6 183 @Columbia L 65 - 93 15% -9  0 - 7 -27 -7 D F C -20 D F D-
 Wed, Dec 10 80 Yale L 82 - 93 7% -6  0 - 8 -4 +5 A F A+ -9 C B- D+
 Sat, Dec 13 109 @Florida Atlantic L 79 - 105 7% -20  0 - 9 -19 -1 B F+ D+ -14 F B- D
 Wed, Dec 17 217 @Stony Brook W 71 - 55 19% +8  1 - 9 +16 +3 A+ F D- +14 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 176 Cornell L 75 - 83 30% +0  1 - 10 -12 +5 B- C- C- -18 C F F
 Tue, Dec 30 91 @South Carolina L 67 - 96 5% -16  1 - 11 -20 +5 F A+ F -27 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 314 @Umass Lowell L 71 - 83 37% -10  1 - 12 0 - 1 -18 -2 F+ B- D- -17 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 347 Bryant W 71 - 46 69% +13  2 - 12 1 - 1 +10 +9 A+ F C- +7 A+ F+ F+
 Thu, Jan 15 361 Binghamton W 69 - 53 82% +5  3 - 12 2 - 1 -3 -5 C D+ F +4 A- C D
 Mon, Jan 19 211 Vermont W 75 - 68 37% +3  4 - 12 3 - 1 +1 +0 B- F C- +1 C+ C- A-
 Thu, Jan 22 346 @Maine L 49 - 52 47% +4  4 - 13 3 - 2 -12 -12 F D D- -1 B B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 320 @New Hampshire L 72 - 80 40% -3  4 - 14 3 - 3 -15 +3 A- C F -19 F F D+
 Thu, Jan 29 324 NJIT L 68 - 77 64% -5  4 - 15 3 - 4 -22 -7 F C C- -15 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 31 261 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 65 - 68 46% +3  4 - 16 3 - 5 -12 -5 D- B+ F -6 D- A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 347 @Bryant L 68 - 69 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 314 Umass Lowell W 76 - 73 61%
 Sat, Feb 14 361 @Binghamton W 72 - 68 63%
 Thu, Feb 19 324 @NJIT L 71 - 73 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 261 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 68 - 75 26%
 Thu, Feb 26 346 Maine W 68 - 63 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 320 New Hampshire W 72 - 69 62%
 Tue, Mar 3 211 @Vermont L 65 - 75 19%
Totals 8 - 20 7 - 9 -10 -5 C- C- D- -5 C F D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.4 1.3 0.2 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.0 1.4 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 1.4 9.0 4.6 0.2 15.2 4th
5th 0.8 9.7 8.7 0.7 19.8 5th
6th 0.4 8.2 12.2 1.5 0.0 22.4 6th
7th 0.2 5.1 11.1 3.0 0.0 19.4 7th
8th 0.2 3.3 6.8 2.9 0.1 13.2 8th
9th 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.5 9th
Total 0.6 4.3 12.6 23.0 26.4 20.2 9.6 3.0 0.3 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 41.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 4.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.3% 29.2% 29.2% 16.0 0.1 0.2
10-6 3.0% 14.9% 14.9% 16.0 0.4 2.6
9-7 9.6% 12.6% 12.6% 16.0 1.2 8.4
8-8 20.2% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 1.9 18.3
7-9 26.4% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 1.9 24.6
6-10 23.0% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 1.3 21.7
5-11 12.6% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.5 12.1
4-12 4.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 4.3
3-13 0.6% 0.6
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 16.0 92.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.5%