American
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#233
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#196
Pace60.4#352
Improvement+1.8#101

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#202
First Shot+2.3#109
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#335
Layup/Dunks-1.7#250
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#7
Freethrows-1.2#262
Improvement+1.5#103

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#269
First Shot-3.9#295
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#118
Layups/Dunks-7.3#360
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#6
Freethrows-1.8#302
Improvement+0.3#172
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 22.3% 18.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 94.5% 98.6% 91.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 77.3% 91.1% 67.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.6% 6.6% 8.3%
First Round16.2% 18.7% 14.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Away) - 42.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 21 - 6
Quad 417 - 718 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 193   @ La Salle L 52-65 31%     0 - 1 -12.0 -9.9 -4.6
  Nov 10, 2024 241   Harvard W 67-55 61%     1 - 1 +4.9 -1.3 +7.4
  Nov 12, 2024 246   @ Siena L 66-74 44%     1 - 2 -10.6 +4.5 -16.6
  Nov 15, 2024 36   @ North Carolina L 55-107 5%     1 - 3 -36.8 -13.8 -20.0
  Nov 18, 2024 107   @ High Point L 73-80 16%     1 - 4 -0.5 +12.8 -14.7
  Nov 22, 2024 235   UMKC W 64-60 50%     2 - 4 -0.3 -6.1 +6.0
  Nov 24, 2024 280   Albany W 81-77 59%     3 - 4 -2.6 +3.1 -5.7
  Dec 04, 2024 124   George Washington W 81-71 OT 36%     4 - 4 +9.6 -0.4 +9.0
  Dec 18, 2024 86   @ Saint Joseph's L 57-84 11%     4 - 5 -17.8 -8.0 -10.8
  Dec 22, 2024 97   @ Virginia L 58-63 14%     4 - 6 +2.4 +0.9 +0.5
  Dec 29, 2024 261   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 93-96 2OT 65%     4 - 7 -11.2 -1.9 -8.8
  Jan 02, 2025 263   @ Navy L 58-81 46%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -26.2 -10.9 -17.4
  Jan 05, 2025 319   Holy Cross W 75-64 77%     5 - 8 1 - 1 -0.8 +6.0 -5.1
  Jan 08, 2025 294   @ Boston University L 54-60 52%     5 - 9 1 - 2 -10.8 -8.7 -3.2
  Jan 11, 2025 251   Bucknell W 68-58 64%     6 - 9 2 - 2 +2.3 -2.0 +4.9
  Jan 13, 2025 325   @ Loyola Maryland W 73-54 63%     7 - 9 3 - 2 +11.5 +5.8 +8.1
  Jan 18, 2025 319   @ Holy Cross W 74-65 60%     8 - 9 4 - 2 +2.2 +5.3 -2.0
  Jan 22, 2025 267   Lehigh W 68-67 66%     9 - 9 5 - 2 -7.4 -0.5 -6.8
  Jan 25, 2025 239   Colgate W 81-77 61%     10 - 9 6 - 2 -3.1 +8.3 -11.1
  Jan 29, 2025 281   @ Lafayette W 75-68 50%     11 - 9 7 - 2 +2.8 +8.9 -5.5
  Feb 01, 2025 297   Army W 71-68 71%     12 - 9 8 - 2 -6.9 +3.0 -9.6
  Feb 05, 2025 251   @ Bucknell L 67-68 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 267   @ Lehigh L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 10, 2025 281   Lafayette W 68-63 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 325   Loyola Maryland W 72-64 79%    
  Feb 19, 2025 297   @ Army W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 294   Boston University W 66-60 72%    
  Feb 26, 2025 263   Navy W 70-66 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 239   @ Colgate L 68-70 41%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 4.5 18.3 25.4 18.7 8.4 1.9 77.3 1st
2nd 1.0 6.9 4.9 0.6 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 3.0 0.3 5.8 3rd
4th 0.4 1.7 0.3 2.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.2 1.2 5.6 14.6 23.5 25.9 18.7 8.4 1.9 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.9    1.9
15-3 100.0% 8.4    8.4
14-4 100.0% 18.7    18.4 0.3
13-5 97.8% 25.4    20.8 4.4 0.2
12-6 77.7% 18.3    8.3 7.7 2.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 31.0% 4.5    0.4 1.7 1.6 0.8 0.1
10-8 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 77.3% 77.3 58.2 14.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.9% 24.7% 24.7% 14.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.4
15-3 8.4% 29.7% 29.7% 15.2 0.2 1.7 0.7 5.9
14-4 18.7% 24.8% 24.8% 15.6 0.1 1.9 2.7 14.1
13-5 25.9% 20.7% 20.7% 15.8 0.0 0.9 4.4 20.6
12-6 23.5% 18.0% 18.0% 15.9 0.4 3.9 19.3
11-7 14.6% 14.1% 14.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0 12.6
10-8 5.6% 12.8% 12.8% 16.0 0.7 4.9
9-9 1.2% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.1 1.1
8-10 0.2% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 15.7 0.1 0.6 4.9 14.4 80.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 14.0 15.2 67.4 17.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%