American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 #241
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 #197
Pace 68.9 #194
Improvement -0.8 #227

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #246 C F C+ D+ B-
Defense #230 D C C+ F C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #229 1.09 #259 -2.2 #258
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #298 0.78 #136 -1.9 #273
Three Pointers 49% #44 1.07 #104 +5.3 #33
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #149 +1.1 #149
Freethrows 15.1 #294 75% #126 11.2 #261
Second Chance 22.4% #355 1.00 #240 0.22 #346
Turnovers 16.2% #145
Total Offense -2.6 #246

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #55 1.29 #323 -5.9 #346
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #179 0.64 #46 +1.1 #110
Three Pointers 36% #310 1.07 #262 +1.5 #127
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #283 -3.3 #283
Freethrows 21.6 #339 73% #190 15.7 #34
Second Chance 32.4% #250 1.00 #134 0.32 #190
Turnovers 17.8% #105
Total Defense -1.9 #230

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #104 0.8% #243
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.9% #159 5.5% #283
Possession Length 18.2 #267 16.5 #62
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #196 0.18 #198
Improvement -0.7 #233 -0.1 #195

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 17.6% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 83.9% 87.6% 69.0%
.500 or above in Conference 90.5% 93.2% 79.3%
Conference Champion 17.7% 20.2% 7.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 1.6%
First Four4.0% 3.8% 5.1%
First Round14.5% 15.7% 9.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Home) - 80.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 417 - 618 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 62 @Wake Forest L 74 - 88 7%  -9  0 - 1 -2 +2 C B D- -3 B F C-
 Sun, Nov 9 216 Penn W 84 - 78 56%  +3  1 - 1 -0 -1 B- D- D- +0 D+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 70 @George Washington L 67 - 107 8%  -20  1 - 2 -29 -9 C- D+ F -17 F F C
 Tue, Nov 18 131 @Rutgers L 71 - 80 19%  -1  1 - 3 -4 +0 F F A+ -5 C F C
 Fri, Nov 28 339 Maine W 74 - 61 83%  +12  2 - 3 -2 +3 B F A+ -4 F B- A+
 Sat, Nov 29 190 Siena L 55 - 59 52%  -1  2 - 4 -9 -19 F C- F +10 B- A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 279 Longwood W 92 - 66 69%  +8  3 - 4 +16 +12 B- C+ C- +4 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 248 Drexel W 75 - 73 63%  -1  4 - 4 -6 +3 B- F A+ -9 F A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 341 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 60 83%  +10  5 - 4 +3 +10 A+ F B- -4 F A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 83 - 105 5%  -12  5 - 5 -8 +16 B+ C- A+ -24 F F C-
 Mon, Dec 22 22 @Virginia L 51 - 95 3%  -18  5 - 6 -25 -9 F D C -21 F F C+
 Wed, Dec 31 336 Loyola Maryland W 84 - 69 82%  +10  6 - 6 1 - 0 +1 +6 A F B- -4 F A- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 258 @Boston University W 64 - 62 43%  +5  7 - 6 2 - 0 -1 -2 C F D+ +2 A+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 7 205 @Colgate L 62 - 64 32%  +5  7 - 7 2 - 1 -1 -0 A+ F F -2 B+ D- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 326 Holy Cross W 74 - 65 80% 
 Mon, Jan 12 193 Navy W 72 - 71 52% 
 Sun, Jan 18 330 @Army W 74 - 71 62% 
 Wed, Jan 21 205 Colgate W 73 - 72 54% 
 Sat, Jan 24 326 @Holy Cross W 71 - 68 60% 
 Wed, Jan 28 336 @Loyola Maryland W 77 - 73 63% 
 Sat, Jan 31 318 Lafayette W 77 - 69 77% 
 Wed, Feb 4 314 Bucknell W 74 - 66 77% 
 Sat, Feb 7 193 @Navy L 69 - 74 31% 
 Wed, Feb 11 320 @Lehigh W 72 - 70 59% 
 Sat, Feb 14 330 Army W 77 - 68 80% 
 Wed, Feb 18 314 @Bucknell W 71 - 69 57% 
 Sun, Feb 22 318 @Lafayette W 74 - 72 57% 
 Wed, Feb 25 320 Lehigh W 75 - 67 78% 
 Sat, Feb 28 258 Boston University W 74 - 70 65% 
Totals 17 - 12 12 - 6 -4 -3 C F C+ -2 D C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.3 5.9 4.8 2.1 0.4 17.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 7.5 8.5 4.8 1.0 0.1 25.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.8 9.6 8.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 26.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.5 3.7 0.8 0.1 14.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 3.6 1.7 0.2 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.4 0.8 0.1 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.7 5.4 8.7 13.4 16.5 17.4 14.8 11.2 5.9 2.2 0.4 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 96.4% 2.1    1.9 0.2 0.0
15-3 82.2% 4.8    3.5 1.3 0.1
14-4 53.0% 5.9    2.9 2.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 22.4% 3.3    1.1 1.5 0.6 0.1
12-6 6.0% 1.0    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.7% 17.7 9.9 6.1 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.4% 32.4% 32.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
16-2 2.2% 39.0% 39.0% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.3
15-3 5.9% 31.5% 31.5% 14.8 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.2 4.0
14-4 11.2% 25.6% 25.6% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.8 8.3
13-5 14.8% 22.4% 22.4% 15.5 0.1 1.4 1.8 11.5
12-6 17.4% 17.7% 17.7% 15.7 0.0 0.9 2.2 14.3
11-7 16.5% 12.5% 12.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.8 14.5
10-8 13.4% 10.0% 10.0% 15.9 0.1 1.3 12.0
9-9 8.7% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7 8.0
8-10 5.4% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.3 5.1
7-11 2.7% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 2.6
6-12 1.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 15.5 83.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.4 8.7 39.1 52.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%