American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.7 #244
Expected Predictive Rating -3.7 #223
Pace 68.3 #197
Improvement -2.5 #286

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #266 C D- C D+ B-
Defense #207 C- C C+ D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #202 1.13 #212 -1.1 #221
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #309 0.74 #203 -2.5 #300
Three Pointers 48% #43 1.00 #202 +3.3 #73
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #186 -0.4 #187
Freethrows 0.26 #315 77% #36 0.20 #259
Second Chance 24.9% #328 0.92 #316 0.23 #342
Turnovers 17.0% #199
Total Offense -3.7 #266

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #73 1.25 #292 -4.3 #318
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #158 0.75 #164 -0.2 #200
Three Pointers 36% #310 1.03 #203 +2.3 #96
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #252 -2.2 #254
Freethrows 0.37 #342 72% #166 0.27 #336
Second Chance 32.1% #249 0.96 #92 0.31 #162
Turnovers 18.0% #97
Total Defense -1.1 #207

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #85 0.5% #206
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.0% #211 3.8% #253
Possession Length 17.9 #248 16.4 #51
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #151 0.17 #191
Improvement -2.8 #327 +0.4 #168

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.4% 17.0% 14.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 86.7% 91.5% 70.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 97.9% 86.9%
Conference Champion 4.7% 5.8% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four5.4% 5.1% 6.6%
First Round13.8% 14.6% 11.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 76.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 416 - 717 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 75 @Wake Forest L 74 - 88 8% -9  0 - 1 -3 +1 C C+ D- -3 B F+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 180 Penn W 84 - 78 49% +3  1 - 1 +2 +1 B- D D+ +0 C B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 79 @George Washington L 67 - 107 9% -20  1 - 2 -30 -8 C F D- -19 F F C
 Tue, Nov 18 114 @Rutgers L 71 - 80 15% -1  1 - 3 -3 +1 D- D- A+ -3 C F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 346 Maine W 74 - 61 83% +12  2 - 3 -2 +2 B- F A+ -3 F C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 174 Siena L 55 - 59 48% -1  2 - 4 -8 -20 F D- F +12 B+ A A+
 Sun, Nov 30 264 Longwood W 92 - 66 66% +8  3 - 4 +17 +13 B- B- B- +3 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 206 Drexel W 75 - 73 54% -1  4 - 4 -4 +6 B F A+ -9 F A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 338 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 60 82% +10  5 - 4 +4 +10 A F+ B- -4 F A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 83 - 105 6% -12  5 - 5 -9 +14 B D+ A -23 D- F C
 Mon, Dec 22 25 @Virginia L 51 - 95 2% -22  5 - 6 -25 -9 D- C- C+ -20 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 318 Loyola Maryland W 84 - 69 77% +10  6 - 6 1 - 0 +2 +7 A F B- -4 F+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 290 @Boston University W 64 - 62 49% +5  7 - 6 2 - 0 -2 -2 C F C- +0 A+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 222 @Colgate L 62 - 64 34% +5  7 - 7 2 - 1 -2 -1 A- F D- -2 B- D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 323 Holy Cross L 73 - 84 78% -3  7 - 8 2 - 2 -24 -7 F C- C -17 F D+ D-
 Mon, Jan 12 179 Navy W 65 - 51 48% +11  8 - 8 3 - 2 +10 +0 C- F A+ +11 A+ A+ B+
 Sun, Jan 18 336 @Army W 78 - 67 63% +7  9 - 8 4 - 2 +3 +8 C+ A+ F -4 D C C-
 Wed, Jan 21 222 Colgate W 70 - 66 56% +1  10 - 8 5 - 2 -2 -4 D+ A+ F +2 B- B B
 Sat, Jan 24 323 @Holy Cross W 76 - 67 59% +8  11 - 8 6 - 2 +2 +6 C D A- -4 F B A-
 Wed, Jan 28 318 @Loyola Maryland L 68 - 77 57% -8  11 - 9 6 - 3 -16 -13 D F D+ -2 A- D- D
 Sat, Jan 31 310 Lafayette L 65 - 67 76% +1  11 - 10 6 - 4 -14 -7 D- D+ D- -8 F A- C
 Wed, Feb 4 315 Bucknell W 75 - 67 77%
 Sat, Feb 7 179 @Navy L 65 - 71 26%
 Wed, Feb 11 301 @Lehigh W 71 - 70 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 336 Army W 78 - 69 81%
 Wed, Feb 18 315 @Bucknell W 72 - 70 56%
 Sun, Feb 22 310 @Lafayette W 72 - 71 55%
 Wed, Feb 25 301 Lehigh W 73 - 67 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 290 Boston University W 74 - 68 71%
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 7 -5 -4 C D- C -1 C- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.5 4.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 8.9 13.5 7.3 0.8 32.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 13.0 16.9 7.8 0.9 40.8 3rd
4th 0.5 6.4 6.8 1.5 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 2.5 0.2 4.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 0.3 1.8 6th
7th 0.4 0.5 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.8 11.4 21.5 27.4 22.2 10.7 2.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 66.0% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.1
13-5 22.2% 2.4    0.4 1.4 0.6
12-6 3.4% 0.8    0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 1.2 2.5 1.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.2% 23.9% 23.9% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.7
13-5 10.7% 25.9% 25.9% 15.4 0.1 1.5 1.2 7.9
12-6 22.2% 20.0% 20.0% 15.6 0.1 1.4 2.9 17.7
11-7 27.4% 15.9% 15.9% 15.8 0.0 0.7 3.6 23.0
10-8 21.5% 13.1% 13.1% 15.9 0.2 2.6 18.7
9-9 11.4% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3 10.1
8-10 3.8% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.2 3.6
7-11 0.9% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.1 0.8
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 15.7 83.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 14.6 2.8 38.3 58.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%