Army
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#312
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#300
Pace66.5#245
Improvement-4.1#348

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#286
First Shot-2.7#255
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#268
Layup/Dunks+0.1#183
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#72
Freethrows-3.5#351
Improvement-1.8#303

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#313
First Shot-4.4#318
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#195
Layups/Dunks-1.5#226
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#353
Freethrows+2.5#34
Improvement-2.3#330
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 6.1% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 17.0% 25.9% 10.2%
.500 or above in Conference 36.6% 42.9% 31.7%
Conference Champion 4.6% 6.1% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 21.7% 17.6% 24.9%
First Four3.6% 4.3% 3.1%
First Round2.8% 3.8% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Home) - 43.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 40 - 6
Quad 411 - 1212 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 233   Albany W 67-59 44%     1 - 0 +1.2 -8.0 +9.5
  Nov 08, 2024 2   @ Duke L 58-100 1%     1 - 1 -17.3 -2.3 -14.4
  Nov 15, 2024 231   @ Marist L 88-91 OT 23%     1 - 2 -3.7 +16.1 -19.8
  Nov 20, 2024 333   Fairleigh Dickinson W 84-70 68%     2 - 2 +0.8 +0.9 -0.4
  Nov 22, 2024 279   @ Manhattan L 79-80 31%     2 - 3 -4.4 +0.0 -4.4
  Dec 03, 2024 332   @ Le Moyne W 103-100 3OT 45%     3 - 3 -4.2 -1.6 -3.5
  Dec 08, 2024 131   Cornell L 84-103 25%     3 - 4 -20.3 +5.4 -25.3
  Dec 13, 2024 135   @ George Washington L 60-75 12%     3 - 5 -10.7 -6.5 -5.3
  Dec 22, 2024 302   Binghamton L 68-78 59%     3 - 6 -20.8 -10.9 -9.7
  Dec 29, 2024 226   Texas San Antonio L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 02, 2025 241   @ Colgate L 66-73 25%    
  Jan 05, 2025 257   @ Boston University L 64-70 28%    
  Jan 08, 2025 322   Loyola Maryland W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 246   @ Lehigh L 69-76 27%    
  Jan 15, 2025 267   Lafayette W 68-67 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 257   Boston University L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 22, 2025 313   @ Holy Cross L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 26, 2025 319   Navy W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 29, 2025 241   Colgate L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 232   @ American L 63-71 24%    
  Feb 05, 2025 313   Holy Cross W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 266   Bucknell W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 12, 2025 322   @ Loyola Maryland L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 319   @ Navy L 70-73 41%    
  Feb 19, 2025 232   American L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 23, 2025 266   @ Bucknell L 66-72 30%    
  Feb 25, 2025 267   @ Lafayette L 65-71 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 246   Lehigh L 72-73 47%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.9 4.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.4 5.3 1.6 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 6.0 2.8 0.1 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.7 4.2 0.3 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.5 4.8 0.7 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 5.0 4.6 1.1 0.0 14.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.5 4.2 3.0 0.8 0.0 14.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.2 7.0 9.8 12.5 13.7 13.5 11.7 9.5 6.8 4.3 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 94.0% 0.5    0.4 0.0
14-4 84.2% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 56.8% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 27.2% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 5.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 23.8% 23.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 34.9% 34.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 23.0% 23.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4
14-4 1.2% 23.7% 23.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9
13-5 2.4% 16.7% 16.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.0
12-6 4.3% 13.7% 13.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6 3.7
11-7 6.8% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7 6.1
10-8 9.5% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8 8.6
9-9 11.7% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.7 11.0
8-10 13.5% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.5 13.0
7-11 13.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 13.5
6-12 12.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.4
5-13 9.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.8
4-14 7.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.0
3-15 4.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.2
2-16 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
1-17 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.4 95.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%