Army
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.2 #336
Expected Predictive Rating -8.5 #301
Pace 67.8 #214
Improvement -0.1 #190

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #277 D+ D+ C D B
Defense #350 D+ D- D- D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #278 1.08 #277 -3.5 #300
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #346 0.53 #364 -5.0 #361
Three Pointers 55% #3 0.97 #239 +5.8 #27
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #260 -2.7 #260
Freethrows 0.25 #325 71% #244 0.18 #326
Second Chance 28.9% #235 0.91 #318 0.26 #282
Turnovers 17.1% #205
Total Offense -4.0 #277

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #173 1.26 #310 -2.3 #260
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #214 0.69 #72 +1.1 #108
Three Pointers 42% #158 1.12 #319 -2.5 #291
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #298 -3.7 #299
Freethrows 0.33 #278 74% #285 0.24 #289
Second Chance 31.8% #233 1.22 #355 0.39 #333
Turnovers 13.2% #340
Total Defense -7.1 #350

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #51 0.4% #201
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.3% #304 6.8% #307
Possession Length 18.2 #276 16.7 #89
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #326 0.19 #252
Improvement +1.1 #122 -1.3 #259

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 2.1% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.2% 5.1% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 11.8% 31.8% 8.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.6% 12.8% 33.9%
First Four1.2% 2.0% 1.0%
First Round0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Away) - 15.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 60 - 8
Quad 411 - 1111 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 133 @St. Thomas L 76 - 83 8% -11  0 - 1 -2 +6 B- F+ B- -8 B F F
 Tue, Nov 11 3 Duke L 59 - 114 1% -23  0 - 2 -34 -9 D C D -20 F+ D- D
 Sat, Nov 15 165 Harvard L 52 - 75 23% -9  0 - 3 -26 -17 F D+ F -11 F+ B- C
 Tue, Nov 18 176 @Cornell L 73 - 86 12% -6  0 - 4 -11 -14 F F B- +4 C B B-
 Fri, Nov 21 161 @Marist L 65 - 76 10% -4  0 - 5 -8 +2 B- F C+ -11 D+ F F+
 Tue, Nov 25 311 East Texas A&M L 67 - 84 42% -10  0 - 6 -26 -6 D- F+ C -20 F D+ D+
 Wed, Nov 26 343 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 81 - 73 41% +2  1 - 6 -1 +8 D C+ B+ -8 A- F F
 Sat, Nov 29 327 Manhattan W 81 - 78 OT 58% +3  2 - 6 -10 -5 C F F -5 B F D
 Tue, Dec 2 79 George Washington L 70 - 84 8% -5  2 - 7 -10 -1 B+ F B- -10 A- F C
 Fri, Dec 12 261 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 63 - 60 21% +5  3 - 7 +0 -8 F F+ D+ +8 B- B F+
 Tue, Dec 23 361 Binghamton W 95 - 85 OT 78% +4  4 - 7 -9 +3 B+ C- D- -13 F+ B- F
 Wed, Dec 31 301 @Lehigh W 85 - 78 OT 28% +3  5 - 7 1 - 0 +2 +3 C- A- F+ -2 C- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 222 Colgate L 69 - 76 32% -3  5 - 8 1 - 1 -13 +2 D+ A- B- -16 D+ D+ F+
 Wed, Jan 7 318 Loyola Maryland L 76 - 84 OT 56% -3  5 - 9 1 - 2 -21 -7 F D A -13 C F D-
 Sat, Jan 10 290 @Boston University L 91 - 100 26% -8  5 - 10 1 - 3 -13 +14 C+ B- B -28 F D- D
 Wed, Jan 14 323 @Holy Cross L 75 - 82 34% -7  5 - 11 1 - 4 -14 +2 D+ D C+ -16 F A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 244 American L 67 - 78 37% -7  5 - 12 1 - 5 -19 -1 C D+ B -19 D- F A
 Wed, Jan 21 315 @Bucknell W 87 - 84 OT 33% +2  6 - 12 2 - 5 -3 +12 B- C- C -16 F C F
 Sat, Jan 24 179 @Navy L 56 - 84 12% -12  6 - 13 2 - 6 -26 -7 C F F+ -22 F F C+
 Wed, Jan 28 301 Lehigh W 67 - 64 50% +3  7 - 13 3 - 6 -8 -7 D+ F+ C- -1 B- C+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 323 Holy Cross W 69 - 68 57% +1  8 - 13 4 - 6 -12 -8 F A+ F -4 A- D- F+
 Wed, Feb 4 222 @Colgate L 70 - 81 15%
 Sat, Feb 7 310 Lafayette W 74 - 73 52%
 Wed, Feb 11 290 Boston University L 73 - 74 47%
 Sat, Feb 14 244 @American L 69 - 78 19%
 Wed, Feb 18 318 @Loyola Maryland L 74 - 79 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 179 Navy L 67 - 74 27%
 Wed, Feb 25 315 Bucknell W 74 - 73 55%
 Sat, Feb 28 310 @Lafayette L 71 - 76 31%
Totals 11 - 18 7 - 11 -11 -4 D+ D+ C -7 D+ D- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 1.1 0.3 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 4.0 1.3 0.1 6.7 4th
5th 0.9 7.4 3.4 0.3 12.0 5th
6th 0.1 6.7 7.3 0.4 14.6 6th
7th 2.2 12.2 1.6 16.1 7th
8th 0.4 9.8 6.0 0.1 16.4 8th
9th 0.3 5.9 10.4 1.0 0.0 17.7 9th
10th 3.8 8.1 2.4 0.0 14.3 10th
Total 4.1 14.5 24.9 26.9 17.8 8.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 28.6% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 6.4% 6.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 2.8% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.2 2.7
9-9 8.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.2 8.2
8-10 17.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.4 17.3
7-11 26.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 26.7
6-12 24.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 24.8
5-13 14.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.4
4-14 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 16.0 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.7%