Chicago St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.3 #355
Expected Predictive Rating -17.5 #357
Pace 68.3 #195
Improvement -1.6 #257

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #345 D- D+ C D+ F
Defense #349 D- D- B- D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #322 0.94 #360 -6.9 #354
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% #4 0.75 #187 +5.6 #7
Three Pointers 31% #346 0.98 #236 -5.5 #334
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #353 -6.9 #352
Freethrows 0.25 #319 74% #105 0.19 #291
Second Chance 29.6% #217 0.87 #345 0.26 #292
Turnovers 16.3% #152
Total Offense -7.2 #345

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #280 1.39 #364 -2.3 #261
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #364 0.75 #173 +3.5 #2
Three Pointers 53% #4 1.07 #265 -7.7 #361
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #352 -6.6 #351
Freethrows 0.34 #292 76% #340 0.25 #317
Second Chance 36.0% #340 1.10 #288 0.40 #338
Turnovers 18.6% #73
Total Defense -7.0 #349

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.6% #360 1.9% #335
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.2% #324 10.7% #344
Possession Length 19.6 #355 15.4 #2
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #284 0.24 #353
Improvement -1.8 #292 +0.2 #177

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.6% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.0% 4.1% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 78.2% 60.1% 82.5%
First Four2.0% 2.6% 1.8%
First Round0.6% 0.8% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Away) - 19.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 40 - 12
Quad 45 - 145 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 94 @DePaul L 62 - 92 3% -19  0 - 1 -21 -7 F B D -13 D+ F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 24 @Saint Louis L 86 - 108 1% -13  0 - 2 -3 +7 C+ C D+ -6 D A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 66 @Butler L 66 - 98 2% -24  0 - 3 -21 -6 C+ C F -14 F+ F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 135 Illinois-Chicago L 63 - 67 12% +2  0 - 4 -5 -3 C D B -3 B+ F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 76 @Minnesota L 54 - 66 2% -6  0 - 5 -1 -7 D- C C +4 B A C+
 Thu, Nov 20 21 @Iowa L 54 - 93 0% -18  0 - 6 -19 -1 F+ C- A+ -24 C F F+
 Tue, Nov 25 216 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 90 10% -4  0 - 7 -13 +7 D A+ F -20 F C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 225 @Youngstown St. L 64 - 87 11% -21  0 - 8 -24 -9 F D B- -15 F B- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 87 @Illinois St. L 53 - 95 2% -30  0 - 9 -33 -12 F B F -23 F F C+
 Sun, Dec 14 279 @Loyola Chicago W 84 - 75 16% +6  1 - 9 +5 +6 C- D+ C- -1 A+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 151 @Bowling Green L 55 - 76 6% -11  1 - 10 -18 -13 F D B+ -6 D+ C+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 30 @Indiana L 58 - 78 1% -18  1 - 11 -2 -7 C- F A- +4 D+ B- A+
 Fri, Jan 2 330 Wagner L 72 - 79 47% -4  1 - 12 0 - 1 -21 -2 F D- A+ -20 D F F
 Sun, Jan 4 195 LIU Brooklyn L 55 - 74 20% -11  1 - 13 0 - 2 -24 -15 F F A -11 F D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 343 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 63 - 70 29% -9  1 - 14 0 - 3 -16 -11 D- F F -6 D+ C- B
 Sat, Jan 10 328 @Stonehill L 82 - 85 OT 25% -3  1 - 15 0 - 4 -10 +7 D+ A- B+ -18 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 296 Le Moyne L 57 - 72 36% +0  1 - 16 0 - 5 -26 -20 D+ F F -6 C- F C
 Mon, Jan 19 334 New Haven L 56 - 62 49% +3  1 - 17 0 - 6 -20 -11 D+ F C- -10 D F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 357 @St. Francis (PA) L 60 - 81 39% -13  1 - 18 0 - 7 -32 -16 F F+ C- -18 F B+ C
 Sun, Jan 25 304 @Mercyhurst L 59 - 61 19% -3  1 - 19 0 - 8 -7 -2 F+ D A+ -6 F C A-
 Sat, Jan 31 304 Mercyhurst W 78 - 74 38% +2  2 - 19 1 - 8 -7 +6 C+ C+ B+ -13 F A D+
 Thu, Feb 5 300 @Central Connecticut St. L 68 - 77 19%
 Sat, Feb 7 334 @New Haven L 64 - 70 27%
 Mon, Feb 9 357 St. Francis (PA) W 77 - 74 62%
 Thu, Feb 12 328 Stonehill L 66 - 67 45%
 Sat, Feb 14 296 @Le Moyne L 70 - 80 18%
 Thu, Feb 19 343 Fairleigh Dickinson W 72 - 71 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 300 Central Connecticut St. L 71 - 74 38%
 Thu, Feb 26 195 @LIU Brooklyn L 66 - 81 9%
 Sat, Feb 28 330 @Wagner L 68 - 75 27%
Totals 5 - 25 4 - 14 -14 -7 D- D+ C -7 D- D- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 1.9 0.1 3.9 7th
8th 0.2 3.9 5.0 0.8 9.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 8.0 10.6 2.8 0.0 22.6 9th
10th 3.2 12.6 22.6 18.1 4.8 0.3 61.7 10th
Total 3.2 12.7 23.9 26.3 19.4 10.0 3.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
8-8 0.8% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
7-9 3.6% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.2 3.5
6-10 10.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.3 9.6
5-11 19.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.5 18.9
4-12 26.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 25.9
3-13 23.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.4 23.5
2-14 12.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 12.5
1-15 3.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.2
0-16
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 16.0 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%