Chicago St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.6#361
Expected Predictive Rating-16.2#353
Pace72.9#82
Improvement-0.8#232

Offense
Total Offense-10.4#362
First Shot-8.4#354
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#300
Layup/Dunks-4.3#325
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#176
Freethrows-2.8#332
Improvement-2.3#325

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#303
First Shot-1.0#203
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#355
Layups/Dunks-2.5#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#124
Freethrows-2.3#324
Improvement+1.5#68
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 1.5% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 17.6% 23.1% 17.6%
Conference Champion 0.8% 3.1% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 38.2% 33.8% 38.2%
First Four1.6% 1.5% 1.6%
First Round0.5% 0.0% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 60 - 13
Quad 46 - 136 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 121   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-79 4%     0 - 1 -1.4 -0.5 -0.5
  Nov 09, 2024 187   Youngstown St. L 60-80 17%     0 - 2 -24.4 -13.5 -10.2
  Nov 12, 2024 33   @ Texas L 58-105 1%     0 - 3 -31.4 -12.0 -15.0
  Nov 16, 2024 61   @ San Francisco L 37-82 2%     0 - 4 -33.5 -29.3 -2.3
  Nov 19, 2024 230   Eastern Kentucky L 66-86 22%     0 - 5 -26.6 -17.4 -7.7
  Nov 22, 2024 150   @ Indiana St. L 61-97 6%     0 - 6 -32.7 -15.4 -15.9
  Nov 25, 2024 214   Radford L 48-63 13%     0 - 7 -17.7 -21.3 +1.8
  Nov 26, 2024 154   Drexel L 71-83 9%     0 - 8 -11.9 +4.6 -17.5
  Nov 30, 2024 34   @ Wisconsin L 53-74 1%     0 - 9 -5.7 -11.4 +4.6
  Dec 02, 2024 125   @ St. Thomas L 76-98 4%     0 - 10 -16.8 -5.2 -8.9
  Dec 08, 2024 137   @ Saint Louis L 62-85 5%     0 - 11 -18.7 -9.1 -10.7
  Dec 15, 2024 235   @ Mercer L 63-75 11%     0 - 12 -13.1 -10.5 -2.7
  Dec 19, 2024 107   @ Grand Canyon L 51-74 3%     0 - 13 -15.6 -21.0 +7.1
  Dec 21, 2024 153   @ Cal St. Northridge L 57-81 6%     0 - 14 -20.9 -18.8 +0.5
  Dec 29, 2024 21   @ Illinois L 59-91 0.1%   
  Jan 03, 2025 307   @ Wagner L 55-65 18%    
  Jan 05, 2025 336   @ LIU Brooklyn L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 12, 2025 323   Stonehill L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 332   Le Moyne L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 20, 2025 333   Fairleigh Dickinson L 77-78 45%    
  Jan 24, 2025 323   @ Stonehill L 65-74 21%    
  Jan 26, 2025 219   @ Central Connecticut St. L 59-74 9%    
  Feb 01, 2025 336   LIU Brooklyn L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 06, 2025 358   Mercyhurst W 68-66 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 339   St. Francis (PA) L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 13, 2025 333   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 74-81 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 332   @ Le Moyne L 68-75 25%    
  Feb 20, 2025 219   Central Connecticut St. L 62-71 22%    
  Feb 22, 2025 307   Wagner L 58-62 38%    
  Feb 27, 2025 358   @ Mercyhurst L 65-69 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 339   @ St. Francis (PA) L 70-76 28%    
Projected Record 5 - 26 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.0 3.1 0.3 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.6 5.2 0.6 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 6.5 7.3 1.2 0.0 16.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.0 7.9 7.8 2.0 0.0 21.1 8th
9th 0.5 2.6 6.2 8.3 6.3 1.7 0.1 25.8 9th
Total 0.5 2.6 6.6 11.4 15.7 16.9 16.0 12.6 8.4 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 77.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-4 54.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 29.6% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 5.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.4% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-5 1.1% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.1 1.1
10-6 2.5% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.2 2.4
9-7 5.0% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.2 4.8
8-8 8.4% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.3 8.1
7-9 12.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 12.2
6-10 16.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 15.8
5-11 16.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 16.8
4-12 15.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 15.7
3-13 11.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.4
2-14 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.6
1-15 2.6% 2.6
0-16 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 1.6 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%