Chicago St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.0 #353
Expected Predictive Rating -15.9 #351
Pace 69.6 #177
Improvement -1.6 #274

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #332 F D+ C C- F
Defense #344 D- F B- C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #311 0.95 #351 -6.4 #349
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% #3 0.78 #133 +6.9 #4
Three Pointers 29% #358 0.91 #298 -7.4 #349
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #343 -6.9 #344
Freethrows 15.0 #301 78% #45 11.6 #244
Second Chance 31.0% #180 0.88 #336 0.27 #276
Turnovers 16.5% #171
Total Offense -6.6 #332

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #281 1.36 #353 -1.5 #235
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #364 0.71 #125 +3.6 #3
Three Pointers 54% #5 1.03 #206 -6.8 #357
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #321 -4.7 #320
Freethrows 18.2 #230 74% #260 13.5 #115
Second Chance 34.9% #321 1.15 #299 0.40 #332
Turnovers 18.4% #80
Total Defense -6.4 #344

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -5.0% #361 1.8% #329
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.8% #310 7.2% #308
Possession Length 19.4 #349 15.7 #17
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #226 0.24 #339
Improvement -2.9 #335 +1.3 #96

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.1% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 21.5% 36.1% 14.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 39.4% 23.3% 47.6%
First Four2.7% 3.1% 2.4%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Away) - 33.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 40 - 11
Quad 47 - 137 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 102 @DePaul L 62 - 92 4%  -13  0 - 1 -22 -6 F C F -15 C- F B+
 Thu, Nov 6 29 @Saint Louis L 86 - 108 1%  -13  0 - 2 -5 +6 C A- C- -7 F A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 57 @Butler L 66 - 98 2%  -24  0 - 3 -20 -4 B C F -14 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 184 Illinois-Chicago L 63 - 67 21%  +2  0 - 4 -9 -5 C F B+ -4 B F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 76 @Minnesota L 54 - 66 2%  -6  0 - 5 -1 -7 F C+ C +4 B+ A+ C+
 Thu, Nov 20 20 @Iowa L 54 - 93 1%  -18  0 - 6 -20 -1 F D- A+ -24 C F F
 Tue, Nov 25 243 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 90 14%  -4  0 - 7 -15 +5 D- A+ F -20 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 28 210 @Youngstown St. L 64 - 87 11%  -21  0 - 8 -23 -8 F D+ B -15 F B C-
 Sat, Dec 6 85 @Illinois St. L 53 - 95 3%  -30  0 - 9 -32 -13 F B+ F -21 F F B-
 Sun, Dec 14 251 @Loyola Chicago W 84 - 75 15%  +6  1 - 9 +7 +6 C- D+ C- +0 A+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 132 @Bowling Green L 55 - 76 6%  -11  1 - 10 -16 -13 F D A -4 D- B+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 25 @Indiana L 58 - 78 1%  -18  1 - 11 -1 -6 C F A+ +4 D- B+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 316 Wagner L 72 - 79 47%  -4  1 - 12 0 - 1 -19 -1 F F A+ -19 D F F
 Sun, Jan 4 209 LIU Brooklyn L 55 - 74 24%  -11  1 - 13 0 - 2 -25 -17 F F A+ -9 F D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 349 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 63 - 70 37%  -9  1 - 14 0 - 3 -17 -12 F F F -5 C- C- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 340 @Stonehill L 67 - 71 34% 
 Sat, Jan 17 291 Le Moyne L 75 - 78 39% 
 Mon, Jan 19 338 New Haven W 68 - 67 55% 
 Fri, Jan 23 361 @St. Francis (PA) L 74 - 75 48% 
 Sun, Jan 25 307 @Mercyhurst L 65 - 72 24% 
 Thu, Jan 29 361 St. Francis (PA) W 78 - 72 70% 
 Sat, Jan 31 307 Mercyhurst L 68 - 69 45% 
 Thu, Feb 5 269 @Central Connecticut St. L 68 - 78 19% 
 Sat, Feb 7 338 @New Haven L 65 - 70 34% 
 Thu, Feb 12 340 Stonehill W 70 - 68 56% 
 Sat, Feb 14 291 @Le Moyne L 72 - 81 21% 
 Thu, Feb 19 349 Fairleigh Dickinson W 76 - 73 59% 
 Sat, Feb 21 269 Central Connecticut St. L 71 - 75 37% 
 Thu, Feb 26 209 @LIU Brooklyn L 69 - 82 11% 
 Sat, Feb 28 316 @Wagner L 69 - 76 27% 
Totals 7 - 23 6 - 12 -13 -7 F D+ C -6 D- F B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.6 3rd
4th 0.7 2.5 1.2 0.2 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 4.0 4.4 0.7 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.4 4.0 6.5 1.5 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.9 8.4 3.3 0.1 16.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 5.3 8.8 4.7 0.4 20.1 9th
10th 0.3 1.4 4.3 7.8 8.4 3.8 0.4 26.4 10th
Total 0.3 1.4 4.3 8.8 14.2 16.8 17.9 14.7 10.3 6.3 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 50.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 47.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 3.4% 0.0    0.0
11-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.4% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-5 1.3% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.1 1.2
10-6 3.1% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.2 2.9
9-7 6.3% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.3 6.0
8-8 10.3% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.4 9.9
7-9 14.7% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.6 14.2
6-10 17.9% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.5 17.4
5-11 16.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 16.5
4-12 14.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 14.0
3-13 8.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.7
2-14 4.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.3
1-15 1.4% 1.4
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 16.0 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%