Chicago St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.9 347
Results Rating -14.0 349
Pace 65.8 253
Improvement +2.7 82

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 329 F+ D+ C+ D+ F
Defense D- 338 D- F+ B D D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 325 F+ 49% 352 -6.1 353
2 Pt. Jumpers 65% 6 C- 37% 207 +5.2 11
Three Pointers 32% 343 D 31% 290 -5.9 341
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.2 358 D- -4.6 327
1st FG Attempt F+ 0.88 350
Second Chance C- 28.4% 235 D 0.94 309 D+ 0.27 285
Turnovers C+ 16.0% 128
Freethrows D 0.26 320 B- 75% 99 D+ 0.20 276
Total Offense D -6.5 329

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 135 C- 11.8% 232
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 84 C+ 4.6% 154
Three Pointers C- 82% 242 B 0.4% 61
Total C- 53% 241 C 5.7% 194

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 259 F+ 67% 359 +1.9 238
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% 364 C 39% 208 -3.7 2
Three Pointers 53% 3 D+ 36% 272 +7.8 363
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.1 349 D- +4.7 342
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 346
Second Chance D- 35.6% 343 D 1.11 295 F+ 0.40 344
Turnovers B 19.0% 58
Freethrows D+ 0.34 287 D- 76% 339 D 0.26 313
Total Defense D- -6.4 338

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 65% 364 D- 6.2% 344
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 70% 365 D+ 2.9% 301
Three Pointers F 93% 364 D- -0.1% 357
Total F 77% 364 F+ 2.5% 356

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.8 360 15.8 7
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 271 0.23 346
Improvement +0.2 #174 +2.5 #58

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 353 347 334
Results Rating Rank 354 349 337
Conference Record 5 - 11 5 - 11 6 - 10
Conference Finish 10 9 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 5% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 40% 40% 39.5%
First Four4% 5% 4%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Away) - 11.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 40 - 11
Quad 47 - 147 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 93 @DePaul L 62 - 92 3% -19  0% 0 - 1 F -21 F+ -9 F B- D F -11 D+ F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 23 @Saint Louis L 86 - 108 1% -13  5% 0 - 2 C- -3 B- +5 C+ C+ D+ D+ -3 D- A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 75 @Butler L 66 - 98 2% -24  0% 0 - 3 F -21 F+ -9 C+ C F F -11 F+ F A
 Sat, Nov 15 109 Illinois-Chicago L 63 - 67 11% +2  50% 0 - 4 C- -3 D+ -4 C+ D+ B+ C -0 A- F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 59 @Minnesota L 54 - 66 2% -6  6% 0 - 5 C -0 F+ -9 F+ C C- A- +7 A- A C+
 Thu, Nov 20 26 @Iowa L 54 - 93 1% -18  0% 0 - 6 F -20 D -5 F D+ A F -21 C- F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 261 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 90 17% -4  28% 0 - 7 F+ -16 C+ +2 D- A+ F F -18 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 28 198 @Youngstown St. L 64 - 87 10% -21  2% 0 - 8 F -22 F -11 F D B- F -11 F C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 103 @Illinois St. L 53 - 95 4% -30  0% 0 - 9 F -34 F -15 F B F F -21 F F B-
 Sun, Dec 14 282 @Loyola Chicago W 84 - 75 20% +6  74% 1 - 9 B- +5 B- +4 D+ D+ C+ C+ +1 A+ F A
 Tue, Dec 16 166 @Bowling Green L 55 - 76 8% -11  0% 1 - 10 F -18 F -15 F D- B- D+ -5 D C D+
 Sat, Dec 20 38 @Indiana L 58 - 78 1% -18  0% 1 - 11 C- -3 F+ -10 D+ F B+ B+ +6 D B- A
 Fri, Jan 2 320 Wagner L 72 - 79 51% -4  2% 1 - 12 0 - 1 F -20 D+ -3 F F+ A+ F -18 D F F
 Sun, Jan 4 219 LIU Brooklyn L 55 - 74 27% -11  0% 1 - 13 0 - 2 F -25 F -18 F F A F+ -9 F D A+
 Thu, Jan 8 333 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 63 - 70 33% -9  0% 1 - 14 0 - 3 F+ -15 F -13 D F F C- -3 D C B+
 Sat, Jan 10 341 @Stonehill L 82 - 85 OT 36% -3  29% 1 - 15 0 - 4 D- -12 B- +4 D+ B+ A- F -16 F F B
 Sat, Jan 17 300 Le Moyne L 57 - 72 43% +0  66% 1 - 16 0 - 5 F -26 F -22 D F F D+ -4 C- F C
 Mon, Jan 19 321 New Haven L 56 - 62 51% +3  77% 1 - 17 0 - 6 F -19 F -12 D+ F C- F+ -8 D F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 355 @St. Francis (PA) L 60 - 81 46% -13  0% 1 - 18 0 - 7 F -33 F -19 F F D+ F -15 F B+ C+
 Sun, Jan 25 290 @Mercyhurst L 59 - 61 21% -3  11% 1 - 19 0 - 8 D+ -7 D -5 F D+ A+ C- -2 F C A
 Sat, Jan 31 290 Mercyhurst W 78 - 74 41% +2  62% 2 - 19 1 - 8 D+ -7 C+ +3 C B- B+ F+ -9 F A+ C-
 Thu, Feb 5 303 @Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 78 24% -3  24% 2 - 20 1 - 9 F+ -16 D+ -4 D- F A+ F -14 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 321 @New Haven W 63 - 57 29% +6  85% 3 - 20 2 - 9 C -1 C- -1 C F A+ C+ +1 D B C
 Mon, Feb 9 355 St. Francis (PA) W 80 - 75 69% +7  87% 4 - 20 3 - 9 D- -13 D -6 F B+ C D- -7 D+ F A+
 Thu, Feb 12 341 Stonehill W 68 - 55 59% +14  96% 5 - 20 4 - 9 C- -2 B+ +8 B+ A+ F D- -7 F A A-
 Sat, Feb 14 300 @Le Moyne L 63 - 81 23% -6  3% 5 - 21 4 - 10 F -23 F -13 F D+ C+ F -10 F B+ F+
 Thu, Feb 19 333 Fairleigh Dickinson L 59 - 60 56% +0  38% 5 - 22 4 - 11 F+ -15 D -5 D D- C F -11 C- F D+
 Sat, Feb 21 303 Central Connecticut St. W 70 - 51 44% +5  63% 6 - 22 5 - 11 B- +8 D+ -3 F A- A A+ +13 A+ F A
 Thu, Feb 26 219 @LIU Brooklyn L 66 - 79 12%
 Sat, Feb 28 320 @Wagner L 67 - 73 30%
Totals 6 - 24 5 - 13 -13 D -6 F+ D- F D- -6 D B- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D F+ C- D D- 33% 65% 32% F F+ C- D D+ C+ D B- D+ D- F+ C D+ D- 36% 11% 53% D- D- D- D F+ B D+ D- D
0.99 49% 37% 31% -5 -2 0.88 28% 0.9 .27 16% .26 75% .20 1.18 67% 39% 36% +5 +1 1.14 36% 1.1 .40 19% .34 76% .20
Nov
3		 DePaul F+ F A- F F+ 17% 50% 33% F F C A- B- D A C A- F D- F A C- 47% 10% 43% F D+ F F+ F C+ F C+ F
0.85 13% 46% 25% -8 -5 0.75 29% 1.1 .32 22% .41 70% .28 1.26 67% 60% 27% +2 +2 1.10 41% 1.3 .54 18% .59 69% .40
Nov
6		 Saint Louis B- F A C+ B 32% 38% 30% F C+ C+ C- C+ D+ A+ A- A+ D+ F A+ F D- 45% 4% 51% C- D- A A+ A+ C+ F F F
1.00 37% 48% 33% -3 -3 0.90 28% 0.8 .23 18% .50 80% .40 1.26 76% 0% 43% +14 +3 1.35 25% 0.6 .14 18% .47 91% .42
Nov
11		 Butler F+ C C A B- 42% 40% 19% F C+ F+ A+ C F C F C- F A- A+ F F+ 26% 2% 72% C- F+ D+ F F A F C+ F
0.90 59% 38% 40% +2 -2 1.02 19% 1.3 .26 22% .23 62% .14 1.34 50% 0% 44% +8 +1 1.21 38% 1.9 .72 19% .51 70% .35
Nov
15		 Illinois-Chicago D+ A- C D- B- 33% 30% 37% F+ C+ C D- D+ B+ C C C C D A+ A+ A+ 53% 10% 38% F A- F F F A- F D+ F
0.99 67% 36% 29% 0 -2 0.98 34% 0.8 .29 17% .31 75% .23 1.06 62% 25% 13% -11 +2 0.85 43% 1.4 .60 22% .57 75% .42
Nov
18		 Minnesota F+ D+ C+ F D 31% 47% 22% F F+ D+ A- C C- D F F+ A- D+ D- A A- 29% 17% 54% B+ A- F A+ A C+ F F F
0.86 53% 39% 18% -6 -4 0.82 23% 1.0 .23 19% .20 60% .12 1.05 67% 43% 27% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.5 .20 18% .52 78% .41
Nov
20		 Iowa D F A+ F D- 32% 48% 20% F F C- D+ D+ A C- A C+ F F A+ B C+ 42% 2% 56% F C- F F F D- C- D+ D+
0.88 36% 52% 11% -7 -4 0.80 24% 0.9 .21 18% .30 80% .24 1.52 81% 0% 32% +7 +3 1.22 46% 2.0 .92 11% .35 79% .28
Nov
25		 Purdue Fort Wayne C+ F A+ D+ C- 25% 38% 38% F D- A+ A A+ F B B+ B+ F F F F F 48% 4% 48% F F F A+ C A+ D- F F
1.13 50% 50% 33% +2 -3 1.00 50% 1.3 .63 25% .31 81% .25 1.32 74% 50% 52% +21 +3 1.50 30% 0.7 .22 22% .30 81% .24
Nov
28		 Youngstown St. F D+ D F F 27% 51% 22% F F C+ F D B- D- A D+ F F F F F 24% 7% 69% C F A F C+ C- B- C B-
0.91 57% 31% 27% -6 -5 0.80 32% 0.8 .24 17% .29 82% .24 1.24 77% 75% 42% +16 +1 1.35 23% 1.3 .29 18% .24 71% .17
Dec
6		 Illinois St. F D- F F F 24% 41% 35% F F A- D+ B F C- A+ A F F A+ F+ F 34% 4% 62% F F F A+ F B- C+ A+ A-
0.79 50% 15% 24% -17 -4 0.61 34% 0.9 .32 22% .29 93% .27 1.42 89% 0% 39% +14 +2 1.34 55% 0.9 .47 18% .27 53% .15
Dec
14		 Loyola Chicago B- B- D- A+ C 33% 40% 27% F D+ A F D+ C+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A A+ A A+ 23% 4% 72% C A+ F F F A F B D-
1.16 59% 33% 43% +2 -3 1.00 39% 0.7 .28 12% .46 90% .41 1.04 45% 0% 26% -13 +1 0.79 51% 1.1 .58 24% .40 64% .25
Dec
16		 Bowling Green F F F F F 30% 48% 22% F F C+ F D- B- A+ F A D+ F+ A+ A- D+ 58% 2% 40% F D B+ F+ C D+ C C C
0.82 33% 25% 27% -16 -4 0.62 30% 0.7 .22 16% .48 63% .30 1.13 67% 0% 29% +1 +4 1.12 23% 1.0 .23 15% .31 72% .23
Dec
20		 Indiana F+ D+ B- F C- 34% 37% 29% D- D+ C F F B+ F A+ F B+ F A+ D- D- 15% 4% 81% B+ D F A+ B- A C+ A+ A
0.84 50% 41% 24% -6 -2 0.85 26% 0.5 .14 13% .10 100% .10 1.14 100% 0% 39% +11 0 1.26 37% 0.8 .29 19% .32 61% .20
Jan
2		 Wagner D+ F F A+ F 47% 26% 26% D F C F F+ A+ A A+ A+ F B C+ F D- 45% 23% 32% D+ D D F F F F D+ F
1.12 36% 29% 50% -7 0 0.89 30% 0.8 .23 8% .46 85% .39 1.23 48% 36% 47% +1 0 1.04 36% 1.3 .48 12% .54 73% .39
Jan
4		 LIU Brooklyn F F D F F 55% 23% 23% C F C- F F A D F F+ F+ C- F D- F 43% 6% 51% F F D- C- D A+ B- C- C+
0.85 41% 33% 25% -13 +1 0.77 33% 0.4 .14 14% .29 63% .18 1.14 60% 100% 38% +7 +2 1.21 39% 1.0 .39 26% .25 67% .17
Jan
8		 Fairleigh Dickinson F F A+ A- F+ 40% 11% 49% B+ D F F F F D+ A+ C+ C- F F B D 24% 10% 67% D+ D D+ B- C B+ F D F
0.95 39% 60% 41% 0 +1 1.04 10% 0.7 .07 20% .32 82% .26 1.06 70% 50% 29% -1 0 1.00 34% 0.8 .29 21% .65 74% .48
Jan
10		 Stonehill B- F B- A- C- 39% 35% 26% F D+ F A+ B+ A- B- A+ A- F F A+ D- F 33% 10% 58% D F F D+ F B F D+ F
1.12 45% 40% 40% -2 -2 0.95 15% 2.6 .39 8% .31 81% .25 1.16 76% 20% 37% +7 +1 1.17 46% 0.9 .43 23% .37 71% .27
Jan
17		 Le Moyne F F D A+ D- 53% 20% 27% B- D F D+ F F F F F D+ D- F A+ C+ 42% 6% 52% F C- A F F C F+ F+ F
0.83 44% 30% 43% -5 +1 0.94 12% 1.0 .12 20% .16 56% .09 1.05 65% 100% 24% -1 +2 1.04 18% 2.2 .39 20% .40 77% .31
Jan
19		 New Haven F D+ B- C- D+ 48% 26% 26% D+ D+ C- F F C- F C F F+ D+ A+ C+ D+ 41% 3% 56% F D F B+ F A+ F F F
0.95 55% 42% 33% -1 0 1.00 26% 0.5 .13 17% .16 75% .12 1.06 63% 0% 32% -1 +3 1.05 46% 0.8 .39 29% .34 100% .34
Jan
23		 St. Francis (PA) F F F C+ F 26% 38% 36% F F B- F F D+ F F F F F B F F 28% 22% 50% C+ F C A+ B+ C+ D F F
0.90 50% 25% 37% -6 -3 0.85 37% 0.7 .26 19% .20 45% .09 1.21 92% 30% 48% +18 -1 1.37 27% 0.7 .18 19% .30 88% .26
Jan
25		 Mercyhurst D F F A- F+ 25% 27% 48% F F D C- D+ A+ F C F C- F C+ F F 16% 34% 50% A- F B- D+ C A B+ C+ B+
1.02 42% 15% 39% -7 -2 0.85 29% 1.0 .29 10% .21 73% .15 1.06 71% 40% 41% +8 -3 1.11 24% 1.1 .28 21% .15 71% .11
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Mercyhurst C+ F D- A+ B- 29% 29% 42% F C B- B- B- B+ A+ F A F+ F D C F 37% 25% 37% F+ F F+ A+ A+ C- D C+ D+
1.17 46% 31% 47% +3 -2 1.04 36% 1.1 .39 15% .53 63% .34 1.11 79% 46% 32% +8 -1 1.18 32% 0.5 .15 15% .25 71% .18
Feb
5		 Central Connecticut St. D+ B F D+ D 35% 24% 41% F+ D- F F F A+ D+ B+ C- F F F D F 24% 17% 59% F F F F F A+ F F F
1.07 63% 23% 32% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.7 .11 5% .24 86% .20 1.25 80% 57% 38% +12 -1 1.24 39% 1.3 .52 24% .40 89% .36
Feb
7		 New Haven C- F+ A+ C+ B 26% 43% 30% F C F+ F F A+ C+ B+ B- C+ B A+ D- D+ 34% 5% 61% F D A+ F B C C B C+
1.07 50% 55% 36% +6 -4 1.07 19% 0.3 .06 8% .28 80% .22 0.97 53% 0% 37% -1 +2 1.05 10% 1.7 .16 19% .25 67% .17
Feb
9		 St. Francis (PA) D D+ F F F 38% 24% 38% D- F B+ C+ B+ C A+ A- A+ D- F F A+ C- 32% 7% 61% F D+ F F F A+ F F+ F
1.13 59% 27% 29% -5 -1 0.91 40% 1.2 .49 18% .57 79% .45 1.06 93% 67% 19% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.2 .41 25% .53 75% .40
Feb
12		 Stonehill B+ A- A+ D A 35% 35% 30% F B+ B+ A+ A+ F D+ A+ C+ D- D F F F 39% 5% 55% F F A- A+ A A- D+ D D
1.22 67% 53% 31% +7 -2 1.12 35% 1.5 .52 16% .26 83% .21 0.98 60% 50% 43% +9 +2 1.24 21% 0.6 .13 25% .26 73% .19
Feb
14		 Le Moyne F B- F F F 31% 36% 34% F F F+ A D+ C+ F F F F F A+ F F 35% 10% 55% D+ F A+ F B+ F+ D+ C- D+
0.91 61% 19% 25% -10 -2 0.76 23% 1.3 .30 13% .17 60% .10 1.18 76% 0% 44% +11 +1 1.27 14% 1.3 .17 16% .36 71% .26
Feb
19		 Fairleigh Dickinson D F B+ A D+ 39% 32% 29% D- D D- D- D- C B B B+ F A+ D- F D+ 41% 27% 32% C+ C- F F+ F D+ D B+ C-
1.12 50% 46% 42% +3 -1 1.05 22% 0.8 .19 15% .38 76% .29 1.14 41% 45% 38% -3 -1 0.95 41% 1.1 .44 17% .32 64% .21
Feb
21		 Central Connecticut St. D+ C- F F F 38% 19% 43% D F C- A+ A- A D- B- D A+ A+ C A+ A+ 39% 17% 43% F A+ F D F A D- D+ F+
1.13 55% 30% 26% -8 0 0.87 30% 1.5 .43 8% .21 83% .18 0.82 33% 38% 20% -19 0 0.65 35% 1.1 .38 23% .31 80% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.7 0.7 7th
8th 10.2 3.1 13.3 8th
9th 53.2 23.2 76.4 9th
10th 9.3 0.4 9.7 10th
Total 62.4 33.8 3.8 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.2 3.7
6-10 33.8% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 1.5 32.3
5-11 62.4% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 2.1 60.4
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 16.0 96.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%
Lose Out 39.5%