Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +21.0 #9
Expected Predictive Rating +29.8 #2
Pace 63.8 #312
Improvement -3.2 #312

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #21 A- B+ C+ C B-
Defense #5 A+ B+ B C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.34 #22 +5.9 #20
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #297 0.93 #17 -0.7 #220
Three Pointers 43% #146 1.07 #94 +2.2 #103
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #19 +7.4 #20
Freethrows 0.31 #158 71% #227 0.22 #174
Second Chance 37.5% #24 1.12 #65 0.42 #25
Turnovers 16.0% #132
Total Offense +9.7 #21

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #129 0.88 #3 +4.6 #48
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #55 0.70 #92 -1.1 #271
Three Pointers 35% #342 0.78 #1 +7.4 #2
1st FG Attempt 0.80 #2 +10.9 #2
Freethrows 0.33 #282 72% #129 0.24 #265
Second Chance 26.0% #38 0.90 #30 0.23 #22
Turnovers 19.6% #41
Total Defense +11.3 #5

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #62 -0.8% #99
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.3% #23 -20.8% #2
Possession Length 18.1 #262 17.8 #276
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #134 0.10 #19
Improvement -1.1 #246 -2.1 #296

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.8% 5.0% 1.4%
#1 Seed 33.5% 34.2% 20.1%
Top 2 Seed 76.8% 77.8% 58.6%
Top 4 Seed 99.4% 99.5% 97.3%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.0 1.9 2.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 88.9% 89.8% 73.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.5% 98.7% 95.2%
Sweet Sixteen71.3% 71.7% 65.1%
Elite Eight42.1% 42.7% 32.5%
Final Four22.1% 22.4% 15.3%
Championship Game10.6% 10.8% 7.6%
National Champion5.1% 5.1% 3.8%

Next Game: Xavier (Home) - 94.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 25 - 2
Quad 1b4 - 110 - 3
Quad 210 - 020 - 3
Quad 36 - 026 - 3
Quad 45 - 030 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 334 New Haven W 79 - 55 100% +12  1 - 0 +10 +6 C+ B+ D +6 C A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 314 Umass Lowell W 110 - 47 99% +42  2 - 0 +51 +24 A+ A+ C +22 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 183 Columbia W 89 - 62 98% +16  3 - 0 +22 +18 A+ B+ A- +6 A+ B D+
 Sat, Nov 15 15 BYU W 86 - 84 60% +9  4 - 0 +20 +15 A+ A- F +5 B- C A+
 Wed, Nov 19 2 Arizona L 67 - 71 49% -4  4 - 1 +17 +12 A D+ A+ +5 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 23 347 Bryant W 72 - 49 100% +14  5 - 1 +8 -2 D- C+ C+ +11 A- B A+
 Fri, Nov 28 7 Illinois W 74 - 61 49% +10  6 - 1 +34 +13 A+ B- D +22 A+ A+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 14 @Kansas W 61 - 56 48% -2  7 - 1 +26 +7 B- A+ F +21 A+ A+ B+
 Fri, Dec 5 311 East Texas A&M W 83 - 59 99% +13  8 - 1 +12 +13 B- C+ A+ +1 C- A B-
 Tue, Dec 9 5 Florida W 77 - 73 47% +2  9 - 1 +26 +18 A+ B+ B +8 B A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 31 Texas W 71 - 63 81% +6  10 - 1 +20 +4 A+ B- F +16 A+ A- B+
 Tue, Dec 16 66 Butler W 79 - 60 92% +10  11 - 1 1 - 0 +24 +8 B+ A+ F +17 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 94 @DePaul W 72 - 54 87% +5  12 - 1 2 - 0 +27 +7 B- A+ D +20 A+ A+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 83 @Xavier W 90 - 67 85% +18  13 - 1 3 - 0 +33 +19 A+ A- D+ +13 A A+ B+
 Sun, Jan 4 95 Marquette W 73 - 57 95% +11  14 - 1 4 - 0 +19 +3 D+ B- A- +16 A+ A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 67 @Providence W 103 - 98 OT 82% -5  15 - 1 5 - 0 +16 +16 A+ C C+ -0 D+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 94 DePaul W 72 - 60 94% +11  16 - 1 6 - 0 +15 +9 A D D+ +7 C+ A- A+
 Tue, Jan 13 53 @Seton Hall W 69 - 64 77% +7  17 - 1 7 - 0 +18 +13 A A+ D +6 A D- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 78 @Georgetown W 64 - 62 84% +4  18 - 1 8 - 0 +12 +7 D B A+ +5 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 32 Villanova W 75 - 67 OT 82% -2  19 - 1 9 - 0 +19 +14 C A+ A+ +6 A+ F B-
 Tue, Jan 27 67 Providence W 87 - 81 92% +4  20 - 1 10 - 0 +11 +10 B B- B- +1 B+ B- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 58 @Creighton W 85 - 58 79% +11  21 - 1 11 - 0 +39 +31 A+ A+ B +13 A+ C+ B
 Tue, Feb 3 83 Xavier W 82 - 65 95%
 Fri, Feb 6 19 @St. John's W 74 - 73 51%
 Wed, Feb 11 66 @Butler W 79 - 69 82%
 Sat, Feb 14 78 Georgetown W 78 - 61 95%
 Wed, Feb 18 58 Creighton W 80 - 65 92%
 Sat, Feb 21 32 @Villanova W 69 - 65 63%
 Wed, Feb 25 19 St. John's W 77 - 71 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 53 Seton Hall W 72 - 58 90%
 Sat, Mar 7 95 @Marquette W 78 - 66 87%
Totals 28 - 3 18 - 2 +21 +10 A- B+ C+ +11 A+ B+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.0 11.9 28.3 31.6 14.9 88.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.7 0.9 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.5 6.0 16.6 29.2 31.6 14.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 14.9    14.9
19-1 100.0% 31.6    31.6
18-2 97.1% 28.3    23.3 5.0
17-3 71.8% 11.9    6.7 5.1 0.1
16-4 33.5% 2.0    0.7 1.2 0.2
15-5 10.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 88.9% 88.9 77.3 11.3 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 14.9% 100.0% 63.4% 36.6% 1.3 10.0 4.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 31.6% 100.0% 57.3% 42.7% 1.7 13.5 15.1 2.8 0.1 100.0%
18-2 29.2% 100.0% 52.5% 47.5% 2.0 7.5 14.8 6.1 0.8 0.0 100.0%
17-3 16.6% 100.0% 45.9% 54.1% 2.4 2.2 6.9 5.9 1.5 0.1 100.0%
16-4 6.0% 100.0% 42.4% 57.6% 2.9 0.3 1.7 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.5% 100.0% 34.1% 65.9% 3.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.2% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 4.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 53.6% 46.4% 2.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.4% 100.0% 1.3 74.9 24.2 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.9% 100.0% 1.5 56.1 40.3 3.1 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7% 100.0% 1.5 51.4 45.6 3.0