Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +19.9 9
Results Rating +24.7 4
Pace 64.4 294
Improvement -5.7 352

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 18 A A- C+ C B
Defense A 14 A A- B D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 111 A- 68% 14 +5.6 21
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 321 A+ 49% 8 -0.8 226
Three Pointers 45% 103 B 37% 68 +3.7 63
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 61 A +7.2 12
1st FG Attempt A 1.19 12
Second Chance B+ 37.1% 27 B 1.13 50 A- 0.42 24
Turnovers C+ 16.0% 129
Freethrows C 0.31 171 C- 72% 210 C 0.22 176
Total Offense A- +10.2 18

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A 68% 5 B 8.7% 56
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A 45% 11 B 2.8% 40
Three Pointers B- 88% 83 D+ 1.3% 280
Total A 71% 4 B 4.5% 62

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 132 A+ 45% 3 -4.1 51
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 70 B- 36% 92 +0.8 250
Three Pointers 36% 328 A 28% 7 -5.8 4
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 114 A+ -8.7 3
1st FG Attempt A 0.84 4
Second Chance B+ 25.2% 25 B 0.92 40 A- 0.23 21
Turnovers B 19.6% 39
Freethrows D+ 0.33 272 C+ 71% 121 D+ 0.24 261
Total Defense A +9.7 14

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A 35% 5 A+ 21.3% 5
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 69 C+ 6.2% 96
Three Pointers B- 81% 91 B+ 1.9% 32
Total A- 44% 10 A+ 10.8% 4

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.1 257 17.8 264
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 126 0.10 13
Improvement -0.2 #199 -5.5 #360

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 16 10 7
Results Rating Rank 7 5 2
Conference Record 16 - 4 18 - 2 18 - 2
Conference Finish 2 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed 4 2 1
NCAA Tourney Finish 2nd Round Sweet 16 Champ Game

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1% 2% 1%
#1 Seed 20% 24% 11%
Top 2 Seed 67% 75% 49%
Top 4 Seed 99% 100% 98%
Top 6 Seed 100% 100% 100%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 2.2 2.0 2.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 62% 88% 9%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round98% 98% 97%
Sweet Sixteen67% 69% 64%
Elite Eight36% 38% 32%
Final Four16% 17% 13%
Championship Game7% 7% 5%
National Champion3% 3% 2%

Next Game: St. John's (Home) - 67.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 25 - 2
Quad 1b4 - 09 - 3
Quad 210 - 119 - 4
Quad 35 - 124 - 4
Quad 45 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 321 New Haven W 79 - 55 99% +12  99% 1 - 0 B +11 B- +4 C+ A- D A- +8 C A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 311 Umass Lowell W 110 - 47 99% +42  98% 2 - 0 A+ +51 A+ +21 A+ A+ C A+ +26 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 203 Columbia W 89 - 62 98% +16  89% 3 - 0 A +22 A+ +15 A+ B A A- +8 A+ B+ D+
 Sat, Nov 15 20 BYU W 86 - 84 58% +9  87% 4 - 0 A +20 A +12 A+ A- F A- +8 B C- A
 Wed, Nov 19 3 Arizona L 67 - 71 44% -4  6% 4 - 1 A- +18 A- +11 A+ D+ A+ B+ +7 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 23 354 Bryant W 72 - 49 100% +14  98% 5 - 1 B- +6 D- -6 F C+ C+ A+ +14 A B A+
 Fri, Nov 28 5 Illinois W 74 - 61 40% +10  99% 6 - 1 A+ +36 A- +10 A+ B D A+ +26 A+ A+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 21 @Kansas W 61 - 56 47% -2  29% 7 - 1 A+ +26 B- +4 B- A+ F A+ +22 A+ A+ B-
 Fri, Dec 5 308 East Texas A&M W 83 - 59 99% +13  95% 8 - 1 B+ +12 A- +10 B- C+ A+ B +4 C- A- B-
 Tue, Dec 9 4 Florida W 77 - 73 36% +2  73% 9 - 1 A+ +28 A+ +17 A+ B+ A- A +11 B+ A+ B-
 Fri, Dec 12 29 Texas W 71 - 63 78% +6  93% 10 - 1 A +20 C +0 A+ B- F A+ +20 A+ A B+
 Tue, Dec 16 75 Butler W 79 - 60 92% +10  75% 11 - 1 1 - 0 A+ +24 B- +4 B A+ F A+ +19 A+ A- C
 Sun, Dec 21 93 @DePaul W 72 - 54 85% +5  67% 12 - 1 2 - 0 A+ +27 B- +5 B- A D A+ +22 A+ A+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 84 @Xavier W 90 - 67 83% +18  97% 13 - 1 3 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +15 A+ A D A+ +17 A A+ B+
 Sun, Jan 4 88 Marquette W 73 - 57 93% +11  96% 14 - 1 4 - 0 A +19 C +1 D+ B- A A+ +19 A+ A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 61 @Providence W 103 - 98 OT 78% -5  16% 15 - 1 5 - 0 A- +17 A +13 A+ C C B- +3 D+ C+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 93 DePaul W 72 - 60 93% +11  98% 16 - 1 6 - 0 A- +15 B +7 A D- D+ A +9 C+ A A+
 Tue, Jan 13 54 @Seton Hall W 69 - 64 75% +7  74% 17 - 1 7 - 0 A +18 A +11 A A+ D- A- +7 A F A
 Sat, Jan 17 71 @Georgetown W 64 - 62 80% +4  80% 18 - 1 8 - 0 B+ +13 B- +5 D- B A+ A- +8 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 35 Villanova W 75 - 67 OT 79% -2  17% 19 - 1 9 - 0 A +19 A- +11 C- A+ A+ A +9 A+ F B+
 Tue, Jan 27 61 Providence W 87 - 81 90% +4  91% 20 - 1 10 - 0 B+ +12 B+ +8 B+ B C+ B +4 A- B C
 Sat, Jan 31 63 @Creighton W 85 - 58 78% +11  94% 21 - 1 11 - 0 A+ +39 A+ +29 A+ A+ B A+ +15 A+ C+ B
 Tue, Feb 3 84 Xavier W 92 - 60 92% +23  97% 22 - 1 12 - 0 A+ +36 A+ +20 A+ C- D+ A+ +17 A+ A A+
 Fri, Feb 6 19 @St. John's L 72 - 81 45% -3  20% 22 - 2 12 - 1 B+ +12 A- +10 A+ B- C- B- +2 C+ F C+
 Wed, Feb 11 75 @Butler W 80 - 70 81% +3  67% 23 - 2 13 - 1 A +21 A+ +21 A A+ A- C+ +2 C- A C-
 Sat, Feb 14 71 Georgetown W 79 - 75 91% +7  96% 24 - 2 14 - 1 B +9 A +11 A A- B- C- -2 F+ B B+
 Wed, Feb 18 63 Creighton L 84 - 91 90% -2  26% 24 - 3 14 - 2 C -1 B- +4 C+ D A+ D+ -5 C B+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 35 @Villanova W 73 - 63 60% +6  72% 25 - 3 15 - 2 A+ +27 A +14 A+ A+ D+ A+ +15 A+ A B-
 Wed, Feb 25 19 St. John's W 76 - 71 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 54 Seton Hall W 71 - 58 89%
 Sat, Mar 7 88 @Marquette W 79 - 69 84%
Totals 27 - 4 17 - 3 +20 A- +10 A+ A B A +10 B C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- A- A+ B A 41% 24% 45% B A B+ B A- C+ C C- C A A+ B- A A+ 40% 24% 36% C+ A B+ B A- B D+ C+ D+
1.23 68% 49% 37% +7 +1 1.19 37% 1.1 .42 16% .31 72% .22 0.95 45% 36% 28% -9 0 0.84 25% 0.9 .23 20% .33 71% .22
Nov
3		 New Haven B- D+ A+ B- C 47% 6% 47% A- C+ B A- A- D A A+ A+ A- C F A+ C- 39% 33% 29% B+ C A+ A+ A+ D C A+ A
1.19 55% 67% 36% +2 +2 1.11 32% 1.3 .42 18% .37 85% .31 0.83 58% 50% 21% -2 -2 0.96 12% 0.5 .06 17% .25 43% .11
Nov
7		 Umass Lowell A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 61% 7% 32% A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ C A- B A A+ A+ A+ B A+ 43% 26% 31% B- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ F F F
1.47 74% 75% 39% +15 +3 1.39 52% 1.1 .55 13% .34 77% .26 0.63 22% 0% 31% -27 0 0.48 21% 0.9 .18 28% .59 72% .43
Nov
10		 Columbia A+ A A+ A A+ 47% 8% 45% A A+ D A+ B A A+ F A+ A- B- D A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% A- A+ A- C+ B+ D+ F D F
1.34 70% 50% 41% +11 +2 1.29 25% 1.4 .36 9% .48 66% .31 0.93 53% 42% 19% -9 0 0.83 29% 0.9 .26 20% .37 75% .28
Nov
15		 BYU A A B+ A+ A+ 50% 15% 35% A+ A+ B- A+ A- F A+ D+ A+ A- B- F B+ A- 41% 12% 47% F B B F C- A D- D F+
1.16 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.35 28% 1.4 .40 22% .46 67% .31 1.13 60% 67% 30% +2 +1 1.08 33% 1.4 .47 19% .38 78% .30
Nov
19		 Arizona A- A+ A C A+ 19% 33% 48% D+ A+ D- C D+ A+ B+ F C- B+ B A- A+ A+ 47% 33% 20% B- A+ D+ F F B- F D+ F
1.06 70% 47% 32% +4 -3 1.04 17% 0.8 .14 8% .31 50% .15 1.12 57% 33% 11% -9 -1 0.82 43% 1.2 .53 16% .47 76% .36
Nov
23		 Bryant D- D+ F F F 59% 6% 35% A F A F+ C+ C+ A B A A+ A+ A+ B- A 24% 14% 62% B A A+ F B A+ F F F
1.10 53% 0% 28% -8 +3 0.92 45% 0.8 .38 12% .38 77% .30 0.75 22% 20% 30% -14 0 0.73 17% 1.2 .21 32% .47 95% .45
Nov
28		 Illinois A- C+ A+ C+ A 35% 15% 50% A+ A+ A+ D B D A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 44% 8% 48% D- A+ A+ A+ A+ B C F F+
1.12 56% 63% 35% +3 0 1.10 36% 0.8 .28 15% .30 71% .21 0.92 43% 50% 20% -16 +2 0.75 31% 0.7 .21 15% .32 94% .30
Dec
2		 Kansas B- A+ C- F B 26% 26% 49% D+ B- B+ A+ A+ F D- A D+ A+ A- A- A+ A+ 33% 31% 36% A- A+ A A+ A+ B- F A- D-
0.98 75% 33% 22% -6 -2 0.87 32% 1.3 .41 21% .16 75% .12 0.90 53% 29% 25% -9 -2 0.80 25% 0.6 .14 16% .40 71% .29
Dec
5		 East Texas A&M A- A F F C+ 60% 15% 25% B+ B- B+ D- C+ A+ F A D B C B- D D 29% 25% 46% A C- B A+ A- B- C+ F C-
1.26 70% 25% 29% +3 +2 1.13 38% 1.0 .38 9% .23 79% .18 0.90 57% 33% 36% 0 -1 1.00 21% 0.6 .12 20% .23 75% .17
Dec
9		 Florida A+ A A A+ A+ 37% 29% 33% C+ A+ C+ A+ B+ A- C C- C A A- F B- A 64% 9% 28% F B+ C A+ A+ B- F B- F
1.14 63% 47% 41% +8 -1 1.16 23% 1.0 .23 13% .27 69% .19 1.08 53% 50% 31% -3 +3 1.02 43% 0.4 .16 18% .48 70% .34
Dec
12		 Texas C A+ A B+ A+ 43% 28% 28% C+ A+ B- B- B- F F+ F F A+ A+ B A A+ 44% 31% 24% A- A+ C+ A+ A B+ F A D-
1.07 75% 46% 38% +12 -1 1.24 28% 1.0 .28 23% .25 54% .14 0.95 40% 36% 27% -11 -1 0.78 37% 1.0 .37 18% .52 68% .35
Dec
16		 Butler B- A- F B+ B 49% 20% 31% B B A+ A+ A+ F C+ F C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 6% 43% F A+ A C+ A- C D F F+
1.13 68% 20% 38% +3 +1 1.10 47% 1.2 .56 21% .24 62% .15 0.86 35% 0% 23% -21 +3 0.65 27% 1.1 .30 14% .40 79% .32
Dec
21		 DePaul B- A+ F+ C B 35% 28% 37% C- B- A A- A D C- B+ C A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 41% 35% 24% A A+ A- A+ A+ B D- A+ B-
1.05 69% 31% 35% +2 -1 1.04 38% 1.1 .41 22% .30 75% .23 0.79 35% 47% 25% -10 -2 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 19% .38 52% .20
Dec
31		 Xavier A+ C+ B+ A+ A+ 36% 16% 47% B- A+ B+ A A D D A C- A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 28% 34% C A A+ A A+ B+ F B+ F+
1.24 60% 44% 50% +13 0 1.29 32% 1.1 .35 19% .24 79% .19 0.92 70% 27% 22% -5 -1 0.91 14% 0.8 .11 15% .36 68% .24
Jan
4		 Marquette C A- D+ F D 42% 18% 40% B- D+ A D+ B- A A+ F B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 55% 4% 42% D- A+ B+ A+ A+ B- D+ A- C
1.07 67% 33% 20% -6 +1 0.92 40% 0.9 .36 16% .37 67% .24 0.83 41% 0% 23% -18 +3 0.74 27% 0.7 .18 16% .33 63% .21
Jan
7		 Providence A C C A+ A+ 29% 26% 45% D+ A+ C- C C C D+ A+ C+ B- A A F D+ 44% 18% 39% C D+ B+ D- C+ A F+ B- D
1.25 56% 38% 57% +15 -1 1.29 27% 1.0 .27 15% .25 83% .21 1.19 52% 30% 55% +8 +1 1.19 30% 1.3 .39 21% .41 74% .30
Jan
10		 DePaul B B+ B B A- 55% 16% 30% A+ A C+ F D- D+ A- A+ A+ A B- F A C 39% 34% 27% A C+ A+ C- A A+ C- C- C-
1.12 63% 43% 38% +5 +2 1.16 30% 0.6 .19 22% .38 84% .32 0.93 56% 50% 27% +1 -2 1.00 21% 1.2 .25 23% .34 71% .24
Jan
13		 Seton Hall A A A+ F A- 51% 11% 38% A A A+ A- A+ D- A+ F A+ A- D- F A+ A 40% 30% 30% A- A F B- F A F A+ F+
1.07 63% 75% 21% -1 +2 1.05 43% 1.1 .47 26% .55 62% .34 0.99 65% 46% 0% -10 -1 0.79 49% 1.0 .46 22% .49 60% .30
Jan
17		 Georgetown B- F A+ F F+ 31% 20% 49% B- D- A C- B A+ A+ C- A+ A- A C+ D+ B 33% 36% 31% A+ B+ F C- F A+ A+ D+ A+
1.08 43% 78% 18% -8 0 0.84 39% 0.9 .37 10% .45 71% .32 1.04 47% 38% 36% -3 -2 0.91 45% 1.1 .52 22% .19 78% .15
Jan
24		 Villanova A- D+ F A C- 35% 24% 41% C C- A A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A A+ A+ B+ A+ 29% 25% 45% A A+ D+ F F B+ F F+ F
1.16 53% 17% 40% -3 -1 0.94 41% 1.2 .49 14% .40 77% .31 1.04 33% 23% 30% -13 -1 0.73 38% 1.4 .52 17% .41 77% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Providence B+ A- F A- B+ 39% 22% 39% C+ B+ A- D+ B C+ A+ F+ A+ B A F C- A 57% 13% 30% F+ A- A- D+ B C F C F
1.21 65% 27% 40% +4 0 1.10 37% 0.9 .34 14% .45 64% .29 1.12 50% 50% 36% -2 +2 1.02 29% 1.2 .35 15% .51 77% .39
Jan
31		 Creighton A+ F A+ A+ A+ 27% 22% 51% C A+ A+ A+ A+ B F F F A+ B F A+ A+ 34% 20% 46% C+ A+ A F C+ B F B F
1.43 43% 55% 46% +9 -1 1.18 42% 1.8 .74 13% .14 43% .06 0.98 57% 50% 21% -7 0 0.88 20% 1.3 .27 17% .49 71% .34
Feb
3		 Xavier A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% A A+ A+ F C- D+ B A A- A+ B A+ D A+ 26% 36% 38% A A+ A- A+ A A+ F A F
1.34 83% 50% 45% +20 +2 1.46 43% 0.5 .21 19% .32 78% .25 0.88 55% 20% 38% -5 -3 0.86 22% 0.8 .16 19% .51 64% .32
Feb
6		 St. John's A- C A+ A+ A+ 53% 11% 36% A+ A+ F+ A+ B- C- D- F F B- B- F A C+ 48% 13% 39% D+ C+ A F F C+ F B- F
1.05 52% 80% 47% +8 +2 1.23 21% 1.5 .31 22% .22 42% .09 1.18 55% 67% 28% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.8 .55 15% .53 71% .37
Feb
11		 Butler A+ F A+ A+ A+ 20% 24% 56% D- A A+ A+ A+ A- D- A D+ C+ B- C F C 52% 11% 37% D- C- A B A C- A- D B
1.32 40% 67% 43% +11 -2 1.20 40% 1.3 .53 13% .17 78% .13 1.16 54% 40% 41% +2 +2 1.11 28% 1.0 .28 13% .31 75% .23
Feb
14		 Georgetown A A+ A+ D A 23% 9% 68% B+ A B- A A- B- A+ C A+ C- B- A F F 28% 15% 57% C- F+ B- B B B+ F A+ D+
1.21 90% 75% 30% +7 0 1.16 33% 1.2 .40 15% .45 72% .32 1.15 54% 29% 46% +8 0 1.17 31% 1.0 .31 17% .42 65% .28
Feb
18		 Creighton B- B- C+ C- C+ 31% 25% 44% C C+ F A D A+ B F C+ D+ A+ F F C+ 43% 18% 39% D+ C A+ F B+ F+ F F F
1.11 60% 38% 32% -1 -1 0.98 18% 1.3 .22 7% .26 61% .16 1.21 45% 56% 45% +4 +1 1.12 13% 1.8 .23 11% .47 84% .40
Feb
21		 Villanova A A+ A+ D+ A+ 44% 20% 36% B+ A+ A+ A- A+ D+ B- A+ A A+ A- F A+ A+ 37% 19% 44% C+ A+ A B+ A B- B A B+
1.16 75% 56% 31% +10 +1 1.22 43% 1.1 .48 22% .27 85% .22 1.00 53% 50% 26% -5 0 0.92 29% 0.9 .26 16% .26 64% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 11.1 51.1 62.4 1st
2nd 0.7 9.0 27.8 37.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.8 9.2 38.9 51.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 51.1    28.0 23.1
17-3 28.5% 11.1    2.4 8.7
16-4 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1
15-5 0.0%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 62.4% 62.4 30.4 31.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 51.1% 100.0% 50.2% 49.8% 1.9 14.5 27.0 8.8 0.9 0.0 100.0%
17-3 38.9% 100.0% 41.6% 58.4% 2.4 5.1 17.3 13.0 3.2 0.2 100.0%
16-4 9.2% 100.0% 38.5% 61.5% 3.0 0.4 2.4 3.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.8% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 3.8 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 45.7% 54.3% 2.2 100.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 25.6% 100.0% 1.7 37.8 53.6 8.4 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 12.4% 100.0% 2.1 21.9 52.7 23.3 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.0% 100.0% 2.2 17.0 51.8 27.1 3.9 0.1
Lose Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.7 2.1 12.5 16.7 52.1 16.7