Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +21.6 #5
Expected Predictive Rating +28.0 #4
Pace 64.6 #300
Improvement -2.4 #301

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #15 A+ B+ C C- B
Defense #5 A+ A+ B D C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #94 1.38 #11 +6.7 #17
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #283 0.91 #24 -0.7 #210
Three Pointers 43% #151 1.12 #47 +3.3 #81
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #14 +9.3 #15
Freethrows 17.0 #214 70% #255 11.9 #222
Second Chance 36.0% #44 1.13 #92 0.40 #42
Turnovers 16.5% #166
Total Offense +10.2 #15

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #111 0.86 #2 +4.8 #46
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #78 0.66 #67 -0.3 #206
Three Pointers 35% #324 0.81 #7 +6.7 #7
1st FG Attempt 0.79 #2 +11.2 #2
Freethrows 19.6 #297 74% #230 14.4 #60
Second Chance 23.9% #14 0.83 #11 0.20 #6
Turnovers 18.5% #78
Total Defense +11.4 #5

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #70 -0.5% #120
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 16.1% #10 -21.5% #2
Possession Length 17.9 #232 17.8 #267
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #140 0.10 #15
Improvement -2.1 #306 -0.3 #212

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.1% 7.2% 3.0%
#1 Seed 35.3% 35.8% 18.5%
Top 2 Seed 73.2% 73.9% 51.0%
Top 4 Seed 98.1% 98.3% 94.6%
Top 6 Seed 99.9% 99.9% 99.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.0 2.0 2.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 86.3% 86.9% 68.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.0% 98.1% 96.2%
Sweet Sixteen74.1% 74.4% 65.6%
Elite Eight46.3% 46.6% 34.9%
Final Four25.1% 25.2% 19.3%
Championship Game12.7% 12.9% 7.7%
National Champion5.8% 5.9% 3.7%

Next Game: DePaul (Home) - 96.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 26 - 2
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 3
Quad 29 - 120 - 4
Quad 36 - 025 - 4
Quad 44 - 030 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 338 New Haven W 79 - 55 100%  +12  1 - 0 +9 +6 C+ B+ D +5 C- A+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 286 Umass Lowell W 110 - 47 99%  +42  2 - 0 +53 +24 A+ A+ C+ +25 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 139 Columbia W 89 - 62 97%  +16  3 - 0 +25 +20 A+ A+ A+ +7 A+ A- D+
 Sat, Nov 15 8 BYU W 86 - 84 55%  +9  4 - 0 +22 +17 A+ B F +5 B D- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 2 Arizona L 67 - 71 53%  -4  4 - 1 +17 +12 A+ D A+ +4 A+ F C
 Sun, Nov 23 317 Bryant W 72 - 49 100%  +14  5 - 1 +11 +1 D- C B +11 A+ B- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 9 Illinois W 74 - 61 55%  +10  6 - 1 +33 +14 A+ B D- +20 A+ A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 18 @Kansas W 61 - 56 58%  -2  7 - 1 +25 +7 B A+ F +18 A+ A+ B-
 Fri, Dec 5 324 East Texas A&M W 83 - 59 100%  +13  8 - 1 +11 +12 C+ C+ A+ +1 C- A C
 Tue, Dec 9 12 Florida W 77 - 73 62%  +2  9 - 1 +22 +17 A+ B+ B- +6 B- A+ B-
 Fri, Dec 12 45 Texas W 71 - 63 89%  +6  10 - 1 +16 +3 A+ B- F +13 A+ A+ A
 Tue, Dec 16 57 Butler W 79 - 60 91%  +10  11 - 1 1 - 0 +25 +9 A A+ F +17 A+ A+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 102 @DePaul W 72 - 54 89%  +5  12 - 1 2 - 0 +26 +8 A- A D +18 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 97 @Xavier W 90 - 67 89%  +18  13 - 1 3 - 0 +31 +19 A+ A C- +12 A A+ A-
 Sun, Jan 4 110 Marquette W 73 - 57 96%  +11  14 - 1 4 - 0 +17 +4 D B- A+ +14 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 66 @Providence W 103 - 98 OT 82%  -5  15 - 1 5 - 0 +17 +17 A+ C- B- -1 D+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 102 DePaul W 78 - 58 97% 
 Tue, Jan 13 53 @Seton Hall W 70 - 61 79% 
 Sat, Jan 17 103 @Georgetown W 79 - 65 90% 
 Sat, Jan 24 31 Villanova W 72 - 62 84% 
 Tue, Jan 27 66 Providence W 86 - 70 93% 
 Sat, Jan 31 37 @Creighton W 73 - 68 69% 
 Tue, Feb 3 97 Xavier W 82 - 63 96% 
 Fri, Feb 6 21 @St. John's W 74 - 72 59% 
 Wed, Feb 11 57 @Butler W 79 - 70 80% 
 Sat, Feb 14 103 Georgetown W 82 - 62 96% 
 Wed, Feb 18 37 Creighton W 76 - 65 85% 
 Sat, Feb 21 31 @Villanova W 69 - 65 65% 
 Wed, Feb 25 21 St. John's W 77 - 69 78% 
 Sat, Feb 28 53 Seton Hall W 73 - 58 91% 
 Sat, Mar 7 110 @Marquette W 78 - 64 91% 
Totals 28 - 3 18 - 2 +22 +10 A+ B+ C +11 A+ A+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 9.5 19.6 25.1 20.7 9.0 86.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.7 3.9 1.1 0.1 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 6.9 13.4 20.7 25.1 20.7 9.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 9.0    9.0
19-1 100.0% 20.7    20.7
18-2 99.7% 25.1    24.0 1.1
17-3 94.5% 19.6    16.2 3.4 0.1
16-4 70.7% 9.5    5.4 3.6 0.5
15-5 33.0% 2.3    0.7 1.1 0.4 0.1
14-6 7.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 86.3% 86.3 76.0 9.2 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 9.0% 100.0% 67.8% 32.2% 1.2 6.9 2.0 0.1 100.0%
19-1 20.7% 100.0% 62.1% 37.9% 1.4 12.8 7.2 0.7 0.0 100.0%
18-2 25.1% 100.0% 56.1% 43.9% 1.7 9.7 12.3 2.9 0.2 100.0%
17-3 20.7% 100.0% 52.3% 47.7% 2.1 4.5 10.0 5.5 0.8 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.4% 100.0% 46.1% 53.9% 2.6 1.2 4.8 5.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.9% 100.0% 41.5% 58.5% 3.2 0.1 1.3 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.7% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 3.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.0% 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 4.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.3% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.1% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 54.2% 45.8% 2.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.1% 100.0% 1.2 81.4 18.2 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3% 100.0% 1.3 70.6 27.1 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 100.0% 1.4 61.1 37.2 1.7