Connecticut
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.7#10
Expected Predictive Rating+15.0#31
Pace62.8#330
Improvement+0.8#129

Offense
Total Offense+13.0#2
First Shot+11.4#2
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#97
Layup/Dunks+6.9#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#36
Freethrows+2.3#59
Improvement+0.1#163

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#83
First Shot+1.5#121
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#36
Layups/Dunks+1.4#116
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#120
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#146
Freethrows-1.9#314
Improvement+0.7#135
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.3%
#1 Seed 8.0% 9.2% 3.1%
Top 2 Seed 21.8% 24.6% 10.2%
Top 4 Seed 53.6% 57.9% 36.2%
Top 6 Seed 78.1% 81.5% 64.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.4% 98.9% 96.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.7% 98.4% 95.2%
Average Seed 4.5 4.3 5.4
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.4% 96.8%
Conference Champion 46.6% 50.6% 30.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 1.6%
First Round98.1% 98.7% 95.8%
Second Round80.7% 82.7% 72.5%
Sweet Sixteen47.3% 49.5% 38.5%
Elite Eight23.4% 24.9% 17.4%
Final Four11.2% 12.0% 7.8%
Championship Game4.9% 5.3% 3.1%
National Champion2.0% 2.3% 1.2%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 80.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 24 - 2
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 5
Quad 27 - 316 - 8
Quad 34 - 020 - 9
Quad 45 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 295   Sacred Heart W 92-56 99%     1 - 0 +25.8 +10.3 +14.1
  Nov 09, 2024 355   New Hampshire W 92-53 99%     2 - 0 +23.1 +13.7 +9.6
  Nov 13, 2024 332   Le Moyne W 90-49 99%     3 - 0 +27.8 +22.0 +10.8
  Nov 19, 2024 356   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-46 99%     4 - 0 +19.0 -0.7 +18.7
  Nov 25, 2024 44   Memphis L 97-99 OT 70%     4 - 1 +9.2 +23.1 -13.8
  Nov 26, 2024 76   Colorado L 72-73 81%     4 - 2 +6.5 +14.4 -8.1
  Nov 27, 2024 48   Dayton L 67-85 72%     4 - 3 -7.2 +2.9 -11.6
  Nov 30, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 99-45 99%     5 - 3 +36.9 +19.2 +18.6
  Dec 04, 2024 12   Baylor W 76-72 64%     6 - 3 +17.0 +18.5 -0.8
  Dec 08, 2024 33   @ Texas W 76-65 55%     7 - 3 +26.6 +20.0 +7.8
  Dec 14, 2024 4   Gonzaga W 77-71 38%     8 - 3 +25.9 +13.2 +12.8
  Dec 18, 2024 49   Xavier W 94-89 OT 81%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +12.5 +22.7 -10.2
  Dec 21, 2024 68   @ Butler W 78-74 71%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +14.9 +11.2 +3.8
  Jan 01, 2025 102   @ DePaul W 79-70 80%    
  Jan 05, 2025 75   Providence W 75-63 87%    
  Jan 08, 2025 52   @ Villanova W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 67   @ Georgetown W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 18, 2025 46   Creighton W 80-71 79%    
  Jan 21, 2025 68   Butler W 80-68 86%    
  Jan 25, 2025 49   @ Xavier W 77-74 62%    
  Jan 29, 2025 102   DePaul W 82-67 92%    
  Feb 01, 2025 17   @ Marquette L 74-76 45%    
  Feb 07, 2025 15   St. John's W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 11, 2025 46   @ Creighton W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 115   @ Seton Hall W 70-59 84%    
  Feb 18, 2025 52   Villanova W 78-69 80%    
  Feb 23, 2025 15   @ St. John's L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 67   Georgetown W 79-67 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 75   @ Providence W 72-66 71%    
  Mar 04, 2025 17   Marquette W 77-73 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 115   Seton Hall W 73-56 94%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.1 11.3 12.7 9.1 4.2 1.0 46.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 7.1 8.8 5.5 1.8 0.2 26.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.3 4.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.5 6.4 10.1 14.2 16.8 17.1 14.5 9.3 4.2 1.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
19-1 100.0% 4.2    4.1 0.0
18-2 97.9% 9.1    8.5 0.7
17-3 87.3% 12.7    10.2 2.4 0.1
16-4 66.2% 11.3    7.0 3.9 0.4 0.0
15-5 36.1% 6.1    2.6 2.7 0.7 0.1
14-6 14.1% 2.0    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 46.6% 46.6 33.8 10.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.0% 100.0% 58.9% 41.1% 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 4.2% 100.0% 50.3% 49.7% 1.6 2.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 9.3% 100.0% 44.7% 55.3% 2.0 2.8 4.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-3 14.5% 100.0% 38.5% 61.5% 2.7 1.7 4.8 4.9 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 17.1% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 3.6 0.5 2.4 5.4 5.4 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 16.8% 100.0% 29.3% 70.6% 4.6 0.1 0.6 2.7 4.9 4.8 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 14.2% 99.8% 24.9% 74.9% 5.6 0.0 0.6 2.0 3.7 4.2 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 10.1% 99.2% 20.1% 79.0% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.4 3.0 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
12-8 6.4% 97.0% 16.8% 80.3% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 96.4%
11-9 3.5% 93.2% 14.1% 79.1% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.2 92.0%
10-10 1.7% 81.9% 9.0% 72.9% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 80.1%
9-11 0.7% 48.8% 6.6% 42.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 45.2%
8-12 0.3% 13.8% 1.4% 12.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 12.5%
7-13 0.1% 4.9% 2.4% 2.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 2.5%
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.4% 30.3% 68.1% 4.5 8.0 13.8 16.2 15.7 13.2 11.3 8.6 6.1 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.6 97.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.2 79.6 19.7 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.4 67.4 29.2 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 69.6 27.5 2.9