Creighton
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.9#32
Expected Predictive Rating+14.7#31
Pace68.6#159
Improvement+1.6#131

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#35
First Shot+10.3#8
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#331
Layup/Dunks+4.7#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.7#2
Freethrows+0.3#154
Improvement+2.3#76

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#39
First Shot+7.3#17
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#251
Layups/Dunks+3.0#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#100
Freethrows+5.3#1
Improvement-0.8#235
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 12.9% 15.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.2% 96.3% 89.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.1% 95.2% 89.2%
Average Seed 7.9 7.8 8.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Round95.1% 96.2% 88.8%
Second Round51.2% 52.3% 44.3%
Sweet Sixteen11.7% 12.3% 8.4%
Elite Eight4.2% 4.3% 3.6%
Final Four1.1% 1.2% 0.9%
Championship Game0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 26 - 6
Quad 26 - 312 - 10
Quad 37 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 267   UT Rio Grande Valley W 99-86 97%     1 - 0 +4.4 +12.5 -9.3
  Nov 10, 2024 314   Fairleigh Dickinson W 96-70 98%     2 - 0 +14.1 +8.9 +2.5
  Nov 13, 2024 285   Houston Christian W 78-43 98%     3 - 0 +25.1 +4.2 +22.2
  Nov 16, 2024 233   UMKC W 79-56 96%     4 - 0 +16.3 +4.8 +11.4
  Nov 22, 2024 57   Nebraska L 63-74 74%     4 - 1 -3.7 -7.1 +3.6
  Nov 26, 2024 54   San Diego St. L 53-71 62%     4 - 2 -7.2 -7.5 -1.0
  Nov 27, 2024 22   Texas A&M L 73-77 40%     4 - 3 +12.4 +8.7 +3.8
  Nov 30, 2024 95   Notre Dame W 80-76 79%     5 - 3 +9.2 +9.2 +0.0
  Dec 04, 2024 19   Kansas W 76-63 50%     6 - 3 +27.0 +11.8 +15.1
  Dec 07, 2024 93   UNLV W 83-65 85%     7 - 3 +20.7 +18.2 +3.5
  Dec 14, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 75-83 17%     7 - 4 +15.9 +5.5 +10.9
  Dec 18, 2024 83   @ Georgetown L 57-81 67%     7 - 5 0 - 1 -14.7 -7.6 -7.8
  Dec 21, 2024 44   Villanova W 86-79 69%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +15.7 +26.2 -9.6
  Dec 31, 2024 13   St. John's W 57-56 45%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +16.1 -0.2 +16.3
  Jan 03, 2025 25   @ Marquette L 71-79 34%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +10.1 +6.1 +4.2
  Jan 11, 2025 72   @ Butler W 80-76 62%     10 - 6 3 - 2 +14.7 +10.1 +4.7
  Jan 14, 2025 91   Providence W 84-64 85%     11 - 6 4 - 2 +22.9 +9.6 +12.9
  Jan 18, 2025 28   @ Connecticut W 68-63 37%     12 - 6 5 - 2 +22.2 +14.0 +9.2
  Jan 21, 2025 113   @ DePaul W 73-49 77%     13 - 6 6 - 2 +30.2 +6.7 +24.8
  Jan 25, 2025 167   Seton Hall W 79-54 94%     14 - 6 7 - 2 +21.7 +17.6 +7.0
  Jan 29, 2025 40   Xavier W 86-77 64%     15 - 6 8 - 2 +19.1 +21.1 -1.8
  Feb 01, 2025 44   @ Villanova W 62-60 49%     16 - 6 9 - 2 +16.2 -4.1 +20.4
  Feb 05, 2025 91   @ Providence W 80-69 70%     17 - 6 10 - 2 +19.4 +9.6 +9.8
  Feb 08, 2025 25   Marquette W 77-67 55%     18 - 6 11 - 2 +22.6 +23.1 +1.1
  Feb 11, 2025 28   Connecticut L 66-70 58%     18 - 7 11 - 3 +7.7 -1.2 +8.7
  Feb 16, 2025 13   @ St. John's L 73-79 26%     18 - 8 11 - 4 +14.6 +11.3 +3.5
  Feb 23, 2025 83   Georgetown W 80-69 83%     19 - 8 12 - 4 +14.8 +8.8 +5.8
  Feb 26, 2025 113   DePaul W 75-65 89%     20 - 8 13 - 4 +10.7 +10.0 +1.8
  Mar 01, 2025 40   @ Xavier L 61-83 43%     20 - 9 13 - 5 -6.4 +0.5 -8.5
  Mar 04, 2025 167   @ Seton Hall W 79-61 86%     21 - 9 14 - 5 +20.2 +20.4 +1.9
  Mar 08, 2025 72   Butler W 87-74 79%     22 - 9 15 - 5 +18.2 +21.7 -2.3
  Mar 13, 2025 113   DePaul W 79-69 84%    
Projected Record 23 - 9 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 95.2% 19.2% 76.0% 7.9 0.2 1.0 4.4 7.4 15.0 32.3 27.7 6.8 0.5 4.8 94.1%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 95.2% 19.2% 76.0% 7.9 0.2 1.0 4.4 7.4 15.0 32.3 27.7 6.8 0.5 4.8 94.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 19.2% 100.0% 6.1 1.0 5.2 21.4 31.9 32.1 8.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 25.8% 98.1% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.1 24.4 48.5 18.9 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 40.2% 93.3% 8.6 0.0 0.4 5.3 35.2 41.3 10.3 0.7
Lose Out 14.8% 89.2% 8.8 0.1 2.4 27.8 41.6 15.7 1.5