Creighton
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#28
Expected Predictive Rating+15.3#25
Pace69.4#149
Improvement+4.3#35

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#38
First Shot+9.7#7
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#334
Layup/Dunks+4.4#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.4#2
Freethrows+0.2#162
Improvement+1.0#130

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#23
First Shot+8.2#11
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#228
Layups/Dunks+3.3#66
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#84
Freethrows+5.3#1
Improvement+3.3#30
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 2.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 11.6% 15.9% 4.6%
Top 6 Seed 36.0% 45.0% 21.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.7% 98.2% 94.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.0% 97.8% 93.2%
Average Seed 6.9 6.5 7.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 27.7% 35.7% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 0.6% 2.5%
First Round96.1% 98.0% 92.9%
Second Round60.4% 64.8% 53.2%
Sweet Sixteen22.8% 25.7% 17.9%
Elite Eight9.3% 10.6% 7.1%
Final Four3.2% 3.9% 2.2%
Championship Game1.1% 1.5% 0.6%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Providence (Away) - 62.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 26 - 6
Quad 27 - 313 - 9
Quad 35 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 264   UT Rio Grande Valley W 99-86 97%     1 - 0 +4.7 +12.8 -9.2
  Nov 10, 2024 322   Fairleigh Dickinson W 96-70 98%     2 - 0 +13.6 +7.3 +3.6
  Nov 13, 2024 290   Houston Christian W 78-43 98%     3 - 0 +25.4 +2.7 +24.1
  Nov 16, 2024 235   UMKC W 79-56 96%     4 - 0 +16.2 +4.3 +11.8
  Nov 22, 2024 48   Nebraska L 63-74 73%     4 - 1 -2.9 -6.1 +3.4
  Nov 26, 2024 52   San Diego St. L 53-71 66%     4 - 2 -7.8 -7.2 -2.0
  Nov 27, 2024 19   Texas A&M L 73-77 44%     4 - 3 +12.0 +7.5 +4.5
  Nov 30, 2024 83   Notre Dame W 80-76 75%     5 - 3 +11.3 +8.5 +2.7
  Dec 04, 2024 7   Kansas W 76-63 42%     6 - 3 +29.5 +13.0 +16.5
  Dec 07, 2024 101   UNLV W 83-65 87%     7 - 3 +20.1 +15.3 +5.8
  Dec 14, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 75-83 23%     7 - 4 +14.2 +5.0 +9.7
  Dec 18, 2024 85   @ Georgetown L 57-81 68%     7 - 5 0 - 1 -14.5 -6.5 -8.7
  Dec 21, 2024 46   Villanova W 86-79 72%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +15.4 +25.5 -9.2
  Dec 31, 2024 14   St. John's W 57-56 49%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +15.6 -0.3 +16.0
  Jan 03, 2025 21   @ Marquette L 71-79 35%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +10.2 +6.2 +4.2
  Jan 11, 2025 75   @ Butler W 80-76 66%     10 - 6 3 - 2 +14.0 +10.8 +3.2
  Jan 14, 2025 66   Providence W 84-64 80%     11 - 6 4 - 2 +25.6 +11.7 +13.5
  Jan 18, 2025 24   @ Connecticut W 68-63 38%     12 - 6 5 - 2 +22.4 +13.6 +9.9
  Jan 21, 2025 112   @ DePaul W 73-49 79%     13 - 6 6 - 2 +29.7 +6.1 +24.9
  Jan 25, 2025 147   Seton Hall W 79-54 92%     14 - 6 7 - 2 +23.5 +16.3 +9.9
  Jan 29, 2025 44   Xavier W 86-77 69%     15 - 6 8 - 2 +18.1 +20.4 -2.0
  Feb 01, 2025 46   @ Villanova W 62-60 54%     16 - 6 9 - 2 +15.4 -5.0 +20.5
  Feb 05, 2025 66   @ Providence W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 21   Marquette W 74-73 56%    
  Feb 11, 2025 24   Connecticut W 74-72 59%    
  Feb 16, 2025 14   @ St. John's L 68-73 30%    
  Feb 23, 2025 85   Georgetown W 75-65 84%    
  Feb 26, 2025 112   DePaul W 80-66 90%    
  Mar 01, 2025 44   @ Xavier W 74-73 49%    
  Mar 04, 2025 147   @ Seton Hall W 73-62 84%    
  Mar 08, 2025 75   Butler W 78-69 82%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.4 11.8 10.0 2.5 27.7 1st
2nd 0.3 5.0 18.1 10.6 1.3 35.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.1 12.0 6.1 0.3 22.9 3rd
4th 0.3 2.4 6.0 3.6 0.1 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 1.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.5 10.7 20.7 27.6 22.7 11.4 2.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 2.5    2.4 0.1
17-3 88.3% 10.0    7.2 2.8 0.0
16-4 51.8% 11.8    3.8 6.3 1.7 0.0
15-5 12.4% 3.4    0.2 1.1 1.7 0.4
14-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.7% 27.7 13.5 10.4 3.4 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 2.5% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 3.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-3 11.4% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 4.6 0.1 0.5 2.1 2.8 2.9 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 22.7% 99.7% 20.2% 79.6% 6.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 4.6 6.1 5.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 99.7%
15-5 27.6% 98.9% 16.7% 82.2% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.6 8.8 7.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 0.3 98.7%
14-6 20.7% 96.3% 13.9% 82.4% 8.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 4.0 7.0 5.4 1.8 0.3 0.8 95.7%
13-7 10.7% 89.6% 9.2% 80.3% 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.7 2.3 0.4 1.1 88.5%
12-8 3.5% 80.6% 8.3% 72.3% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.7 78.8%
11-9 0.8% 63.0% 4.9% 58.0% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 61.0%
10-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.7% 16.7% 80.0% 6.9 0.3 1.1 3.9 6.3 10.2 14.2 20.3 19.5 13.7 5.8 1.4 3.3 96.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 2.1 25.4 46.0 25.4 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 3.3 1.4 18.3 39.4 35.2 5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 3.7 1.4 11.3 31.0 28.2 25.4 2.8