Creighton
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.3 #37
Expected Predictive Rating +11.5 #49
Pace 67.8 #222
Improvement +4.1 #21

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #40 B+ C B+ D+ C
Defense #39 A A- D+ A+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #315 1.33 #32 -0.2 #189
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #274 0.80 #119 -1.3 #239
Three Pointers 51% #20 1.06 #122 +6.2 #23
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #61 +4.7 #61
Freethrows 14.9 #302 76% #63 11.4 #253
Second Chance 31.1% #173 1.01 #225 0.32 #184
Turnovers 14.4% #49
Total Offense +7.4 #40

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #132 1.03 #41 +1.6 #120
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #23 0.65 #57 -1.4 #278
Three Pointers 32% #358 0.92 #67 +6.2 #12
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #27 +6.4 #27
Freethrows 10.5 #4 71% #140 7.5 #362
Second Chance 26.9% #62 0.92 #42 0.25 #34
Turnovers 15.1% #277
Total Defense +5.9 #39

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #165 -1.6% #61
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.7% #56 -11.2% #30
Possession Length 17.4 #180 17.9 #281
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #30 0.11 #22
Improvement +2.2 #53 +1.8 #70

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.5% 2.5% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 9.8% 14.7% 4.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.4% 77.1% 57.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.3% 74.3% 54.6%
Average Seed 8.5 8.1 8.9
.500 or above 96.0% 98.6% 93.3%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 98.3% 92.4%
Conference Champion 5.9% 9.3% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.1% 8.3% 12.0%
First Round62.8% 73.4% 52.3%
Second Round33.1% 40.7% 25.6%
Sweet Sixteen8.7% 11.3% 6.1%
Elite Eight2.9% 3.8% 2.0%
Final Four0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: St. John's (Home) - 50.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 27 - 311 - 12
Quad 35 - 115 - 13
Quad 45 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 290 South Dakota W 92 - 76 98%  +12  1 - 0 +6 +8 F A+ D- -3 C A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 10 @Gonzaga L 63 - 90 17%  -11  1 - 1 -4 -3 B- F F -0 C- A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 341 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 45 99%  +18  2 - 1 +24 +13 A+ B+ B +14 A A+ A
 Wed, Nov 19 319 North Dakota W 75 - 60 98%  +9  3 - 1 +2 +2 F A+ B+ +1 B- B F
 Mon, Nov 24 32 Baylor L 74 - 81 47%  -5  3 - 2 +7 +8 A+ D- F -2 A+ F B
 Tue, Nov 25 3 Iowa St. L 60 - 78 18%  -10  3 - 3 +5 +2 A F D +3 A+ F D
 Thu, Nov 27 65 Oregon W 76 - 66 67%  +6  4 - 3 +19 +10 B- F A+ +9 A+ A F
 Tue, Dec 2 215 Nicholls St. W 96 - 76 95%  +15  5 - 3 +14 +23 A+ C+ A+ -9 D- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 23 @Nebraska L 50 - 71 30%  -14  5 - 4 -2 -8 F C C +4 B+ B+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 74 Kansas St. L 76 - 83 79%  -8  5 - 5 -2 +9 C+ D- A+ -11 A- C- F
 Wed, Dec 17 97 @Xavier W 98 - 57 69%  +21  6 - 5 1 - 0 +49 +25 A+ D+ B +22 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 110 Marquette W 84 - 63 87%  +14  7 - 5 2 - 0 +22 +6 B+ D+ A+ +15 A+ A+ B
 Mon, Dec 22 227 Utah Tech W 92 - 69 96%  +11  8 - 5 +16 +13 A+ F B- +3 C+ D- A
 Tue, Dec 30 57 Butler W 89 - 85 75%  +7  9 - 5 3 - 0 +10 +15 A+ A+ C -5 A A- D
 Sun, Jan 4 53 @Seton Hall L 54 - 56 51%  +5  9 - 6 3 - 1 +11 -3 D- C- A+ +13 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 31 @Villanova W 76 - 72 35%  -2  10 - 6 4 - 1 +21 +20 A+ B+ A+ +2 A+ A F
 Sat, Jan 10 21 St. John's W 77 - 76 50% 
 Tue, Jan 13 103 Georgetown W 80 - 69 86% 
 Fri, Jan 16 66 @Providence W 82 - 81 55% 
 Wed, Jan 21 97 Xavier W 81 - 70 85% 
 Tue, Jan 27 110 @Marquette W 78 - 72 71% 
 Sat, Jan 31 5 Connecticut L 68 - 73 31% 
 Wed, Feb 4 103 @Georgetown W 77 - 72 69% 
 Sat, Feb 7 53 Seton Hall W 71 - 65 72% 
 Wed, Feb 11 102 @DePaul W 73 - 68 69% 
 Sat, Feb 14 31 Villanova W 71 - 69 58% 
 Wed, Feb 18 5 @Connecticut L 65 - 76 15% 
 Sat, Feb 21 21 @St. John's L 73 - 79 30% 
 Wed, Feb 25 102 DePaul W 76 - 65 85% 
 Sat, Feb 28 66 Providence W 85 - 78 75% 
 Wed, Mar 4 57 @Butler W 78 - 77 53% 
Totals 19 - 12 13 - 7 +13 +7 B+ C B+ +6 A A- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.2 0.7 0.1 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 7.3 9.3 5.1 1.2 0.1 25.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.7 10.1 8.9 3.2 0.3 28.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 5.1 8.5 5.7 1.4 0.1 21.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 3.1 4.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.9 0.8 0.1 4.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.0 6.3 11.6 16.0 18.7 17.7 13.4 7.4 3.4 0.7 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 92.4% 0.7    0.5 0.1
17-3 63.9% 2.2    1.2 0.9 0.0
16-4 28.3% 2.1    0.7 1.1 0.3
15-5 5.8% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0
14-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 2.7 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 4.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.4% 99.9% 21.1% 78.8% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 7.4% 98.6% 16.2% 82.4% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.3%
15-5 13.4% 95.7% 13.1% 82.6% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.4 3.8 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.6 95.0%
14-6 17.7% 89.6% 10.4% 79.3% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 4.3 4.6 3.2 0.7 0.0 1.8 88.4%
13-7 18.7% 76.7% 8.1% 68.6% 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 3.9 4.6 2.2 0.0 4.4 74.6%
12-8 16.0% 54.1% 6.0% 48.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.9 3.5 0.1 7.4 51.2%
11-9 11.6% 30.8% 3.9% 27.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.3 0.1 8.0 28.0%
10-10 6.3% 9.4% 3.3% 6.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 5.7 6.3%
9-11 3.0% 2.0% 1.7% 0.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.3%
8-12 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 12.0 0.0 1.2
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 67.4% 8.9% 58.5% 8.5 32.6 64.3%