Creighton
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.7 63
Results Rating +9.0 63
Pace 68.0 195
Improvement -3.8 319

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 56 B C- B D+ C+
Defense B- 102 B- B- D+ A B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 323 A- 67% 21 -0.2 188
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 319 B- 41% 82 -1.3 249
Three Pointers 51% 19 B- 36% 107 +6.5 21
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 172 B+ +4.7 43
1st FG Attempt B 1.12 50
Second Chance C- 28.2% 241 C 1.03 178 C- 0.29 223
Turnovers B 14.5% 48
Freethrows D 0.27 292 B- 75% 103 D+ 0.20 251
Total Offense B +6.1 56

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 51 C+ 9.9% 119
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 213 B- 3.6% 76
Three Pointers D+ 81% 256 D 1.4% 306
Total B 61% 67 B 4.6% 68

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 175 B- 55% 93 -1.0 135
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 21 B- 35% 75 +2.1 330
Three Pointers 33% 357 C 34% 158 -4.3 28
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -0.9 41 B- -2.3 89
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 72
Second Chance B- 27.6% 75 C 1.03 180 B- 0.28 95
Turnovers D+ 15.6% 253
Freethrows A 0.21 5 B 70% 60 A 0.15 6
Total Defense B- +2.6 102

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 59 D 7.7% 313
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 161 C 4.8% 177
Three Pointers B- 80% 72 C+ 1.2% 106
Total B+ 48% 30 C- 4.7% 244

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.1 144 17.8 267
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 34 0.11 25
Improvement -1.1 #243 -2.6 #310

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 79 64 53
Results Rating Rank 80 64 53
Conference Record 8 - 12 10 - 10 11 - 9
Conference Finish 6 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1% 2% 0%
Average Seed 11.2 11.1 11.7
.500 or above 66% 80% 31%
.500 or above in Conference 62% 78% 24%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 2% 0%
First Round2% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: DePaul (Home) - 71.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b0 - 42 - 10
Quad 24 - 56 - 15
Quad 36 - 212 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 293 South Dakota W 92 - 76 95% +12  88% 1 - 0 B- +5 B+ +7 F+ A+ D C- -3 C B C
 Tue, Nov 11 12 @Gonzaga L 63 - 90 11% -11  1% 1 - 1 D+ -5 D+ -4 C+ F F+ C +0 D- A+ D
 Fri, Nov 14 349 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 45 98% +18  99% 2 - 1 A +23 A- +10 B+ B+ B- A+ +16 B+ A+ A
 Wed, Nov 19 294 North Dakota W 75 - 60 95% +9  87% 3 - 1 C+ +4 C- -2 F A+ B A- +8 B B+ D-
 Mon, Nov 24 44 Baylor L 74 - 81 40% -5  0% 3 - 2 C+ +4 B- +5 A- D+ D C -1 A+ F C
 Tue, Nov 25 8 Iowa St. L 60 - 78 13% -10  0% 3 - 3 C+ +3 D+ -3 B+ F D B +5 A+ F D
 Thu, Nov 27 89 Oregon W 76 - 66 59% +6  86% 4 - 3 A- +16 B +7 C+ F A+ A +10 A+ B F+
 Tue, Dec 2 256 Nicholls St. W 96 - 76 93% +15  97% 5 - 3 B+ +12 A+ +18 A+ C B+ D -6 F+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 13 @Nebraska L 50 - 71 11% -14  0% 5 - 4 C +1 D- -7 F+ C B B+ +6 A- B+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 96 Kansas St. L 76 - 83 72% -8  2% 5 - 5 C- -4 B- +5 C+ F+ A+ F -10 B D F
 Wed, Dec 17 84 @Xavier W 98 - 57 45% +21  94% 6 - 5 1 - 0 A+ +51 A+ +22 A+ C- C+ A+ +27 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 88 Marquette W 84 - 63 69% +14  77% 7 - 5 2 - 0 A+ +24 C+ +3 B D+ A A+ +20 A+ A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 22 189 Utah Tech W 92 - 69 89% +11  99% 8 - 5 A +18 A- +11 A+ F C B+ +7 C D+ A
 Tue, Dec 30 75 Butler W 89 - 85 65% +7  96% 9 - 5 3 - 0 B +9 A- +11 A- A C+ C- -2 B+ C C-
 Sun, Jan 4 54 @Seton Hall L 54 - 56 34% +5  86% 9 - 6 3 - 1 B +11 D+ -4 D- D+ A+ A+ +14 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 35 @Villanova W 76 - 72 20% -2  25% 10 - 6 4 - 1 A +21 A+ +17 A B+ A+ B +5 A B+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 19 St. John's L 73 - 90 27% -13  13% 10 - 7 4 - 2 C- -2 A- +10 A+ F A+ F -12 F A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 71 Georgetown W 86 - 83 OT 64% -1  33% 11 - 7 5 - 2 B- +8 A+ +20 A+ C- A+ F -12 F F D+
 Fri, Jan 16 61 @Providence L 88 - 93 38% -1  43% 11 - 8 5 - 3 B- +7 B +7 D+ A- B- C+ +0 A F D+
 Wed, Jan 21 84 Xavier W 94 - 93 68% +1  62% 12 - 8 6 - 3 B- +5 A+ +16 A+ D- A F -11 F C C
 Tue, Jan 27 88 @Marquette L 62 - 86 47% -17  6% 12 - 9 6 - 4 F+ -15 D- -8 C F C D- -7 F B F
 Sat, Jan 31 9 Connecticut L 58 - 85 22% -11  3% 12 - 10 6 - 5 D -10 C +1 C+ B- B+ F -16 C+ F D
 Wed, Feb 4 71 @Georgetown L 68 - 76 42% -4  33% 12 - 11 6 - 6 C+ +3 D -6 B- F+ F A +9 A A+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 54 Seton Hall W 69 - 68 57% -2  28% 13 - 11 7 - 6 B- +8 B +6 A- A+ F+ B- +2 D D+ A
 Wed, Feb 11 93 @DePaul L 71 - 72 49% -0  41% 13 - 12 7 - 7 B- +8 A +12 A B+ A- D+ -4 C- F B
 Sat, Feb 14 35 Villanova L 69 - 80 39% -9  0% 13 - 13 7 - 8 C +0 C- -1 C+ F+ A- C+ +1 A C F+
 Wed, Feb 18 9 @Connecticut W 91 - 84 10% +2  58% 14 - 13 8 - 8 A+ +30 A+ +20 A+ C A+ A +9 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 19 @St. John's L 52 - 81 12% -16  0% 14 - 14 8 - 9 D+ -8 F -15 D- F D- A +9 B- A+ C+
 Wed, Feb 25 93 DePaul W 75 - 69 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 61 Providence W 86 - 83 60%
 Wed, Mar 4 75 @Butler L 77 - 79 42%
Totals 16 - 15 10 - 10 +9 B +6 D B+ C+ B- +3 B- B- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B A- B- B- B+ 33% 24% 51% C+ B C- C C- B D B- D+ B- B- B- C B- 39% 28% 33% B+ B- B- C B- D+ A B A
1.17 67% 41% 36% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.0 .29 14% .27 75% .20 1.05 55% 35% 34% -2 -1 0.96 28% 1.0 .28 16% .21 70% .19
Nov
5		 South Dakota B+ B- D F F+ 48% 20% 32% D+ F+ A+ A+ A+ D F A+ D- C- C A C C+ 54% 20% 25% D C F A+ B C A+ A+ A+
1.26 63% 36% 22% -4 +1 0.96 54% 1.5 .83 18% .18 91% .17 1.04 56% 25% 33% -4 +1 0.97 46% 0.5 .22 18% .23 64% .15
Nov
11		 Gonzaga D+ A+ D+ D B 13% 33% 53% F+ C+ C F F F+ A+ D- A+ C F F C+ F 28% 33% 39% A- D- B+ A+ A+ D A A+ A+
0.86 83% 33% 29% -2 -3 0.91 23% 0.3 .08 25% .56 65% .36 1.23 82% 60% 33% +14 -2 1.25 31% 0.8 .26 11% .20 54% .11
Nov
14		 Maryland Eastern Shore A- A+ D+ D B+ 38% 12% 50% B- B+ A+ D- B+ B- F C- F A+ B F A+ B- 27% 39% 34% A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ F A-
1.30 80% 33% 31% +5 +1 1.15 46% 1.0 .46 14% .20 73% .14 0.70 50% 53% 13% -7 -3 0.82 19% 0.7 .13 28% .13 83% .11
Nov
19		 North Dakota C- A+ F F F 27% 9% 64% D+ F A+ B+ A+ B A F C+ A- B A+ C B 47% 20% 33% C+ B B A- B+ D- A+ D+ A+
1.16 92% 0% 17% -11 +1 0.82 50% 1.3 .64 17% .47 60% .28 0.93 50% 18% 33% -8 +1 0.87 24% 0.9 .21 12% .19 73% .14
Nov
24		 Baylor B- D+ B- A B- 38% 13% 48% A+ A- D+ D D+ D F+ A+ D+ C A+ A C- A+ 42% 33% 25% D+ A+ F D- F C B+ D+ B
1.09 55% 43% 40% +4 +1 1.12 26% 0.9 .23 19% .18 90% .16 1.20 39% 33% 36% -9 -1 0.82 52% 1.2 .64 15% .28 75% .21
Nov
25		 Iowa St. D+ F A+ A B+ 32% 16% 52% B+ B+ B- F F D D+ F D- B B B+ A- A+ 52% 24% 24% C A+ B- F F D A B A
0.88 44% 50% 38% +1 0 1.04 30% 0.4 .11 25% .22 55% .12 1.15 57% 31% 31% -3 +1 0.96 36% 1.5 .53 12% .23 64% .15
Nov
27		 Oregon B B F D+ C 46% 24% 30% B+ C+ F F F A+ A- A+ A+ A C C A+ A+ 43% 32% 25% A A+ C- A B F+ A+ A+ A+
1.12 60% 31% 31% -2 0 0.98 18% 0.7 .12 7% .34 90% .30 0.98 58% 39% 7% -10 -1 0.80 37% 0.9 .35 13% .19 64% .12
Dec
2		 Nicholls St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 13% 60% C- A+ F A+ C B+ F A+ F D F A+ F F 45% 25% 30% B- F+ A A+ A+ F B- D+ C+
1.40 80% 57% 48% +21 0 1.45 26% 1.5 .39 18% .12 100% .12 1.11 72% 0% 53% +5 0 1.13 17% 0.3 .06 9% .26 69% .18
Dec
7		 Nebraska D- A+ F F F+ 11% 24% 64% C- F+ D+ B- C B A+ F B+ B+ F A+ C- B+ 25% 25% 49% A+ A- B B B+ C- F A+ D
0.78 80% 18% 24% -12 -2 0.73 23% 0.9 .20 19% .33 59% .19 1.11 77% 23% 36% +2 -2 1.04 24% 1.0 .24 13% .36 65% .23
Dec
13		 Kansas St. B- C F A C+ 30% 19% 52% C- C+ D+ F+ F+ A+ D A+ B- F A- A+ F B+ 43% 15% 43% C- B F+ C D F C+ F D+
1.14 56% 10% 39% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.0 .29 11% .25 93% .23 1.25 52% 13% 43% 0 +1 1.04 38% 1.1 .41 11% .25 87% .22
Dec
17		 Xavier A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 12% 52% B+ A+ C- C- C- C+ F F F A+ A C A+ A+ 24% 34% 41% A A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.33 77% 57% 48% +20 +1 1.45 24% 0.8 .20 16% .16 60% .10 0.77 50% 40% 25% -7 -3 0.83 20% 0.7 .13 19% .10 50% .05
Dec
20		 Marquette C+ D+ B A B+ 34% 21% 45% C- B F A+ D+ A B B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ 54% 9% 37% C- A+ A+ B A+ C+ C A+ B+
1.09 53% 42% 40% +3 0 1.07 18% 1.5 .26 16% .31 80% .25 0.82 39% 0% 33% -14 +3 0.79 19% 0.9 .17 16% .31 55% .17
Dec
22		 Utah Tech A- A+ D+ A+ A+ 43% 5% 52% A- A+ D F F C D C+ D+ B+ C- B C+ C+ 49% 17% 34% D- C A+ F D+ A A A A
1.28 75% 33% 45% +15 +2 1.38 28% 0.4 .13 15% .25 73% .18 0.96 62% 33% 33% +1 +1 1.06 17% 1.8 .30 21% .14 63% .09
Dec
30		 Butler A- B- B- B+ B+ 38% 9% 53% A- A- B A+ A C+ B- A+ A C- B- A+ C A- 45% 17% 38% C+ B+ F A+ C C- A- F B-
1.23 62% 40% 38% +5 +1 1.15 32% 1.3 .42 17% .25 93% .23 1.17 56% 20% 35% -4 +1 0.97 46% 0.9 .39 14% .30 79% .24
Jan
4		 Seton Hall D+ B+ D F D 33% 22% 46% D+ D- C- D+ D+ A+ D F F+ A+ A A C- A 42% 46% 13% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- C F D-
0.85 60% 30% 19% -11 -1 0.78 28% 0.8 .23 17% .31 63% .19 0.88 45% 27% 33% -11 -3 0.75 17% 0.7 .11 13% .34 84% .29
Jan
7		 Villanova A+ B+ A+ D A+ 28% 32% 40% D- A A+ D B+ A+ B+ C- B B B F A+ A 36% 31% 34% A+ A B B B+ F A+ C- A
1.21 64% 69% 30% +9 -2 1.16 42% 0.8 .35 13% .29 69% .20 1.14 57% 50% 25% -1 -1 0.97 32% 0.9 .29 10% .19 73% .14
Jan
10		 St. John's A- A+ B- A- A+ 27% 20% 53% D+ A+ F F F A+ A- A+ A+ F C- C F F 28% 33% 39% A+ F B+ A+ A+ F A+ A- A+
1.09 69% 40% 38% +7 -1 1.14 7% 0.0 .00 13% .34 85% .29 1.34 60% 39% 57% +14 -2 1.26 33% 0.8 .28 9% .29 67% .20
Jan
13		 Georgetown A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 25% 22% 53% C A+ D- A- C- A+ F A+ F+ F F C F F 37% 35% 29% A F C- F F D+ A B A+
1.33 79% 50% 45% +16 -1 1.33 23% 1.1 .27 9% .19 82% .15 1.29 74% 39% 47% +11 -2 1.21 35% 1.9 .65 12% .25 71% .18
Jan
16		 Providence B B- F C- D 35% 18% 47% B- D+ B+ A- A- B- A+ A+ A+ C+ C F A+ A+ 48% 14% 38% D+ A F D F D+ F B+ F
1.15 60% 10% 33% -5 0 0.93 34% 1.1 .39 13% .44 83% .36 1.22 63% 50% 19% -4 +2 0.96 45% 1.3 .57 13% .53 71% .38
Jan
21		 Xavier A+ B+ F A+ A+ 43% 14% 43% A- A+ D- F D- A A C+ A F F F+ F F 31% 32% 37% B+ F A F C C A+ F A
1.29 67% 25% 54% +15 +1 1.34 20% 0.7 .13 12% .38 71% .27 1.28 83% 47% 45% +17 -2 1.32 21% 1.3 .28 12% .13 88% .11
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Marquette D- A+ A+ F C+ 24% 24% 53% D- C D F F C F C F D- F A+ D- F 53% 9% 38% C- F A+ F B F C A+ A-
0.90 85% 54% 21% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 20% .07 75% .05 1.25 76% 0% 38% +8 +3 1.24 20% 1.3 .27 9% .30 53% .16
Jan
31		 Connecticut C B A+ F C+ 34% 20% 46% C C+ D A+ B- B+ A+ C A+ F A+ F F C- 27% 22% 51% A+ C+ D- F F D A+ A+ A+
0.98 57% 50% 21% -7 0 0.88 20% 1.3 .27 17% .49 71% .34 1.43 43% 55% 46% +9 -1 1.18 42% 1.8 .74 13% .14 43% .06
Feb
4		 Georgetown D A+ A+ F B 25% 23% 52% C- B- D+ F F+ F F F F A A+ C- F A 40% 21% 40% C- A D A+ A+ B F B- F
0.92 71% 62% 24% +1 -1 1.02 26% 0.7 .18 22% .17 60% .10 1.03 26% 40% 42% -7 0 0.88 38% 0.6 .24 16% .53 73% .39
Feb
7		 Seton Hall B D B B+ A- 29% 11% 60% C+ A- C A+ A+ F+ F A+ D B- D- B F F 43% 40% 17% A+ D A- F D+ A A- A A
1.03 46% 40% 37% 0 +1 1.02 30% 1.4 .43 27% .25 83% .21 1.02 65% 32% 50% +4 -2 1.06 30% 1.3 .40 21% .27 64% .17
Feb
11		 DePaul A F A+ A+ A+ 18% 32% 50% F A F+ A+ B+ A- D+ B C- D+ F C+ A+ C 49% 19% 33% D- C- F+ F F B C C C
1.15 25% 50% 50% +10 -3 1.16 20% 1.8 .36 16% .29 73% .21 1.16 71% 38% 21% 0 +1 1.05 37% 2.0 .74 19% .32 69% .22
Feb
14		 Villanova C- A+ F D- B- 31% 25% 44% C- C+ C+ F F+ A- D+ F D C+ C+ B- A- A 37% 26% 37% A- A A- F C F+ C D+ C-
0.99 76% 29% 29% 0 -1 1.00 31% 0.5 .17 17% .21 58% .12 1.15 60% 36% 30% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.3 .38 10% .30 74% .22
Feb
18		 Connecticut A+ D A+ A+ A+ 43% 18% 39% B A+ F A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ A B- B+ B- A 31% 25% 44% A+ A+ A+ D- A+ F B+ A+ A
1.21 45% 56% 45% +4 +1 1.12 13% 1.8 .23 11% .47 84% .40 1.11 60% 38% 32% -1 -1 0.98 18% 1.3 .22 7% .26 61% .16
Feb
21		 St. John's F F+ F D- F+ 42% 16% 42% B D- F D- F D- B D- C+ A D+ D- A+ C 44% 33% 24% A+ B- A+ A+ A+ C+ B F D+
0.70 43% 13% 29% -14 +1 0.76 13% 0.8 .10 24% .32 67% .21 1.08 63% 44% 23% 0 -1 1.00 29% 0.9 .26 15% .36 87% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 9.2 33.8 18.8 61.9 4th
5th 2.9 20.0 9.5 0.3 32.8 5th
6th 3.6 0.8 4.4 6th
7th 1.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 7.5 30.0 43.4 19.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 19.1% 7.4% 2.3% 5.1% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 17.7 5.2%
10-10 43.4% 2.5% 2.1% 0.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 42.3 0.4%
9-11 30.0% 1.1% 1.1% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 29.7
8-12 7.5% 0.5% 0.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.9% 1.7% 1.2% 11.2 97.1 1.2%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.3 1.5 15.9 31.8 48.5 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5% 18.5% 11.1 1.1 14.8 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.4% 7.2% 11.2 5.5 1.7 0.0
Lose Out 3.7%