Denver
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.3 #288
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 #282
Pace 70.1 #145
Improvement -0.6 #217

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #120 C C B C D-
Defense #362 D- D- F+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #327 1.07 #289 -4.9 #336
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #54 0.80 #103 +3.3 #38
Three Pointers 40% #208 1.14 #29 +1.9 #116
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #167 +0.3 #166
Freethrows 0.30 #200 76% #57 0.23 #150
Second Chance 29.4% #218 1.12 #64 0.33 #135
Turnovers 14.5% #56
Total Offense +1.9 #120

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #64 1.28 #318 -5.1 #341
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #288 0.75 #160 +1.4 #84
Three Pointers 40% #222 1.15 #339 -2.1 #282
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #339 -5.8 #339
Freethrows 0.30 #197 69% #40 0.21 #151
Second Chance 35.9% #337 1.12 #303 0.40 #346
Turnovers 12.9% #347
Total Defense -9.2 #362

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.6% #326 1.5% #306
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.2% #121 9.8% #335
Possession Length 17.2 #176 16.6 #70
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #322 0.21 #301
Improvement -2.4 #317 +1.9 #79

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.5% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 1.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.1% 24.6% 5.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.1% 1.9%
First Four2.2% 2.7% 2.1%
First Round1.4% 2.1% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Away) - 13.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 32 - 64 - 12
Quad 46 - 710 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 124 @Seattle L 73 - 84 12% -6  0 - 1 -6 +2 C- B- D -7 C+ D D+
 Thu, Nov 6 41 @Washington L 70 - 84 3% -8  0 - 2 +1 +4 A- D+ D -3 C D D+
 Sun, Nov 9 166 @Montana St. W 75 - 73 18% -2  1 - 2 +5 +10 A+ A+ F -6 C+ F F+
 Sat, Nov 15 342 Texas San Antonio L 79 - 84 76% -4  1 - 3 -20 +6 B F A+ -26 F D- D
 Fri, Nov 21 103 @Colorado St. W 83 - 81 9% +2  2 - 3 +10 +25 A- C A+ -15 C F C-
 Mon, Nov 24 2 @Arizona L 73 - 103 0% -23  2 - 4 -3 +9 B- A C -9 F B B+
 Wed, Nov 26 111 @Wyoming L 59 - 101 10% -16  2 - 5 -35 -11 F B C -24 F+ F F+
 Wed, Dec 3 245 Eastern Washington W 93 - 89 52% +0  3 - 5 -4 +15 A+ F A -19 F D D+
 Sat, Dec 6 227 @Idaho St. L 79 - 93 26% -6  3 - 6 -15 +7 C A C -22 F F F
 Sat, Dec 13 224 Cal St. Fullerton L 86 - 105 47% -19  3 - 7 -25 +3 F+ A+ A- -27 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 20 190 @Northern Colorado W 86 - 79 22% -2  4 - 7 +8 +10 A- F+ C -2 C+ D+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 69 @Tulsa L 85 - 90 5% -4  4 - 8 +6 +6 D+ A+ F+ +1 A D+ D
 Wed, Dec 31 358 UMKC W 87 - 74 83% +12  5 - 8 1 - 0 -5 +8 C- D+ A+ -12 C F F+
 Sun, Jan 4 133 @St. Thomas L 88 - 92 13% -3  5 - 9 1 - 1 +1 +15 B- A B+ -14 C F F
 Thu, Jan 8 177 @South Dakota St. L 79 - 87 19% -1  5 - 10 1 - 2 -6 +7 D+ C+ A -13 C F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 285 @South Dakota L 72 - 82 38% -2  5 - 11 1 - 3 -14 -5 F C- C -9 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 335 Oral Roberts W 98 - 87 74% +6  6 - 11 2 - 3 -3 +19 A+ C+ B -22 F D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 139 North Dakota St. L 77 - 82 29% -5  6 - 12 2 - 4 -7 +8 C C+ A+ -15 F D+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 282 North Dakota L 86 - 93 60% -0  6 - 13 2 - 5 -17 +3 C+ F B -19 F D+ D-
 Wed, Jan 28 358 @UMKC W 69 - 61 66% -0  7 - 13 3 - 5 -4 -4 F C B +1 C+ B F
 Sat, Jan 31 241 Nebraska Omaha L 82 - 84 51% +1  7 - 14 3 - 6 -10 +3 C D A+ -13 D+ C F
 Thu, Feb 5 139 @North Dakota St. L 73 - 85 14%
 Sat, Feb 7 282 @North Dakota L 81 - 84 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 177 South Dakota St. L 81 - 84 39%
 Sat, Feb 14 241 @Nebraska Omaha L 77 - 83 29%
 Thu, Feb 19 285 South Dakota W 88 - 85 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 133 St. Thomas L 79 - 85 28%
 Thu, Feb 26 335 @Oral Roberts W 80 - 79 53%
Totals 10 - 18 6 - 10 -7 +2 C C B -9 D- D- F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.3 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.5 4.1 3.4 0.2 8.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 10.3 9.9 1.2 0.0 24.3 6th
7th 2.0 13.5 24.5 16.2 2.5 0.0 58.7 7th
8th 2.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.2 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 4.3 15.9 27.8 27.1 16.8 6.6 1.4 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.1% 25.0% 25.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1
9-7 1.4% 6.3% 6.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.3
8-8 6.6% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.3
7-9 16.8% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.7 16.2
6-10 27.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.7 26.4
5-11 27.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.5 27.3
4-12 15.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 15.8
3-13 4.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.3
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.0 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%