East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#142
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#219
Pace67.4#222
Improvement+0.2#171

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#144
First Shot-0.1#175
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#114
Layup/Dunks-2.3#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#135
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#48
Freethrows-2.8#329
Improvement-1.2#276

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#165
First Shot+0.2#167
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#204
Layups/Dunks-2.5#284
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#72
Freethrows+0.0#193
Improvement+1.4#81
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 14.7% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 80.2% 82.1% 56.6%
.500 or above in Conference 87.5% 88.9% 68.9%
Conference Champion 18.2% 19.1% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 1.3%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round14.2% 14.6% 9.0%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 92.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 41 - 4
Quad 35 - 65 - 10
Quad 412 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 230   Eastern Kentucky L 78-82 76%     0 - 1 -10.6 +3.7 -14.5
  Nov 16, 2024 122   @ Davidson L 70-76 33%     0 - 2 -0.5 +6.4 -7.5
  Nov 22, 2024 342   South Carolina Upstate W 87-76 92%     1 - 2 -3.5 +1.8 -6.1
  Nov 24, 2024 264   Queens W 82-67 81%     2 - 2 +6.4 +6.0 +0.7
  Nov 27, 2024 193   @ Charlotte W 75-55 48%     3 - 2 +21.4 +5.3 +17.3
  Nov 30, 2024 283   Austin Peay W 79-57 84%     4 - 2 +12.4 +9.3 +4.4
  Dec 03, 2024 135   @ James Madison L 61-71 36%     4 - 3 -5.5 -6.6 +0.5
  Dec 07, 2024 101   @ Wichita St. L 87-96 26%     4 - 4 -1.3 +10.8 -11.3
  Dec 14, 2024 211   @ Jacksonville L 52-60 52%     4 - 5 -7.5 -17.1 +9.5
  Dec 18, 2024 181   Elon W 84-58 68%     5 - 5 +22.0 +14.5 +9.3
  Dec 21, 2024 222   @ UMKC L 66-73 55%     5 - 6 -7.4 +5.1 -13.7
  Jan 01, 2025 344   VMI W 81-65 93%    
  Jan 04, 2025 151   Wofford W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 08, 2025 235   @ Mercer W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 354   The Citadel W 77-60 94%    
  Jan 15, 2025 113   @ Furman L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 18, 2025 118   @ Samford L 78-83 32%    
  Jan 22, 2025 311   Western Carolina W 78-66 87%    
  Jan 25, 2025 172   Chattanooga W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 29, 2025 161   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 113   Furman W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 05, 2025 344   @ VMI W 78-68 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 118   Samford W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 12, 2025 311   @ Western Carolina W 75-69 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 172   @ Chattanooga L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 19, 2025 161   UNC Greensboro W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 151   @ Wofford L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 26, 2025 235   Mercer W 79-71 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 354   @ The Citadel W 74-63 83%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.8 5.1 2.7 0.9 0.1 18.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.8 7.3 4.1 0.8 0.1 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.1 7.6 3.0 0.3 0.0 16.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.6 7.2 2.7 0.2 15.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.9 6.0 2.2 0.1 13.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.0 1.7 0.1 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.0 0.8 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.2 9.5 13.4 15.3 15.7 13.6 10.3 6.0 2.7 0.9 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 97.6% 2.7    2.5 0.2
15-3 85.9% 5.1    3.7 1.3 0.1
14-4 56.4% 5.8    2.6 2.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 22.4% 3.0    0.7 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.2% 18.2 10.5 5.6 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 46.6% 46.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.9% 39.4% 39.4% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.7% 34.7% 34.7% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8
15-3 6.0% 30.4% 30.4% 13.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 4.2
14-4 10.3% 24.6% 24.6% 13.6 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.2 7.8
13-5 13.6% 20.0% 20.0% 13.9 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.0 10.8
12-6 15.7% 14.1% 14.1% 14.3 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.0 13.5
11-7 15.3% 10.6% 10.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 13.7
10-8 13.4% 7.8% 7.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 12.3
9-9 9.5% 5.9% 5.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 9.0
8-10 6.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.9
7-11 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 3.4
6-12 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.7 5.2 3.4 0.9 85.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 5.9 55.9 38.2