East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +2.0 131
Results Rating +0.6 150
Pace 65.8 252
Improvement -1.0 222

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 138 C+ C C+ B- C+
Defense C+ 148 C- C+ B C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 53 C+ 59% 144 +3.4 66
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 128 B- 41% 69 +0.3 155
Three Pointers 37% 269 C- 33% 239 -2.8 276
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 118 C +0.4 163
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 143
Second Chance D+ 26.9% 283 B 1.13 52 C 0.30 196
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 133
Freethrows C+ 0.32 144 B+ 77% 34 B- 0.24 97
Total Offense C+ +1.1 138

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 141 B- 9.1% 80
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 313 C 4.9% 180
Three Pointers C+ 86% 155 C- 1.1% 254
Total C- 54% 216 C+ 5.3% 151

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 205 D+ 61% 257 +0.7 209
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 335 B+ 34% 37 -2.7 10
Three Pointers 47% 32 C- 35% 220 +3.6 330
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 287 C- +0.9 219
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 230
Second Chance C+ 29.7% 153 B- 0.97 77 C+ 0.29 102
Turnovers B 19.2% 49
Freethrows C+ 0.30 165 D 75% 305 C 0.22 194
Total Defense C+ +0.9 148

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 181 C 11.2% 162
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 188 B 7.8% 48
Three Pointers D+ 87% 287 C 1.0% 141
Total D+ 60% 289 C 5.9% 155

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 277 17.0 128
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 218 0.20 271
Improvement -0.3 #202 -0.7 #233

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 149 132 115
Results Rating Rank 175 149 106
Conference Record 13 - 5 14 - 4 15 - 3
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36% 37% 33%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round36% 37% 33%
Second Round1% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 80.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 24 - 4
Quad 418 - 522 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 277 @Presbyterian L 64 - 68 70% -2  33% 0 - 1 D+ -8 D- -7 F A D- C -1 C+ F A
 Wed, Nov 12 195 Northern Kentucky W 75 - 63 75% +8  98% 1 - 1 B- +7 D -5 A+ F F A+ +12 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 342 @North Alabama W 78 - 74 85% -8  8% 2 - 1 D+ -5 C- -1 B F A D+ -5 D- F B
 Fri, Nov 21 280 Morehead St. W 77 - 62 86% +2  47% 3 - 1 B- +5 C +0 F+ B- C+ B+ +6 D A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 353 Louisiana Monroe W 97 - 55 95% +20  97% 4 - 1 A+ +25 A +13 A A- C+ A+ +13 A+ C+ B-
 Sat, Nov 29 183 Central Arkansas W 80 - 57 73% +10  84% 5 - 1 A +19 C +1 A F A+ A+ +17 A+ B B-
 Tue, Dec 2 87 @Dayton L 71 - 88 23% -10  17% 5 - 2 D+ -7 C- -2 B C+ F D+ -5 F B B+
 Fri, Dec 5 182 South Alabama W 91 - 65 73% +5  53% 6 - 2 A +22 A+ +16 C A+ A+ B+ +6 D- A+ B+
 Fri, Dec 12 157 @Austin Peay L 75 - 76 46% -6  1% 6 - 3 C+ +2 C+ +3 B- D C+ C -1 D- A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 27 @North Carolina L 58 - 77 7% -10  3% 6 - 4 C -1 C- -1 D+ B- B+ C- -3 C- D+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 196 Jacksonville St. L 75 - 81 75% -1  45% 6 - 5 D -11 B+ +8 A+ D+ D+ F -20 F C- B
 Tue, Dec 30 348 @The Citadel W 74 - 49 87% +13  88% 7 - 5 1 - 0 A- +15 C+ +2 D+ B- D A+ +16 A- D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 178 Mercer W 77 - 71 72% +1  50% 8 - 5 2 - 0 C+ +2 C +1 F A+ C- C+ +1 D+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 358 VMI W 81 - 67 96% +10  96% 9 - 5 3 - 0 D+ -5 C- -1 B- D B- D+ -3 C- A F
 Sat, Jan 10 301 UNC Greensboro W 86 - 60 89% +10  88% 10 - 5 4 - 0 A- +15 C- -1 A- F+ B A+ +15 A+ D A+
 Wed, Jan 14 247 @Western Carolina L 68 - 72 64% +0  44% 10 - 6 4 - 1 D+ -6 D+ -3 D F A+ D+ -3 F C+ A
 Sat, Jan 17 190 @Samford W 76 - 75 53% +5  96% 11 - 6 5 - 1 C+ +2 A +12 A- C B+ F+ -10 F B- F+
 Wed, Jan 21 274 @Chattanooga W 67 - 66 69% +2  72% 12 - 6 6 - 1 C- -2 F+ -8 F B+ D+ B+ +6 D A+ A
 Fri, Jan 23 348 The Citadel W 84 - 55 94% +18  89% 13 - 6 7 - 1 B+ +13 B+ +8 B A- B A- +7 C A+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 247 Western Carolina L 88 - 90 82% -9  0% 13 - 7 7 - 2 D -10 B+ +8 C+ C A+ F -18 F F C-
 Sun, Feb 1 238 @Wofford W 86 - 72 62% +5  90% 14 - 7 8 - 2 B+ +13 A +14 F+ A+ A+ C -0 C- D C
 Wed, Feb 4 175 Furman W 75 - 71 OT 72% -5  10% 15 - 7 9 - 2 C +0 D+ -4 C+ F B B +4 F B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 358 @VMI W 87 - 70 91% +10  91% 16 - 7 10 - 2 C+ +4 C+ +3 A- A- F C+ +1 D- C- C
 Wed, Feb 11 274 Chattanooga W 73 - 61 85% +4  82% 17 - 7 11 - 2 C+ +3 D+ -4 F D- A+ A- +7 A C- C-
 Sat, Feb 14 190 Samford L 72 - 82 OT 74% -2  22% 17 - 8 11 - 3 F+ -15 F -13 F+ D+ D- C- -2 A F C
 Wed, Feb 18 175 @Furman W 78 - 69 50% +3  66% 18 - 8 12 - 3 B +11 B +7 A F D+ B +4 A+ C F
 Sat, Feb 21 301 @UNC Greensboro W 87 - 75 76% +4  75% 19 - 8 13 - 3 B- +7 A- +10 A+ C F C- -2 F F+ A-
 Wed, Feb 25 238 Wofford W 80 - 71 80%
 Sat, Feb 28 178 @Mercer W 78 - 77 50%
Totals 20 - 9 14 - 4 +2 C+ +1 A+ C C+ C+ +1 C- B+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C+ B- C- C 43% 42% 37% C+ C+ D+ B C C+ C+ B+ B- C+ D+ B+ C- C- 38% 15% 47% D+ C- C+ B- C+ B C+ D C
1.10 59% 41% 33% 0 0 1.04 27% 1.1 .30 16% .32 77% .24 1.07 61% 34% 35% +1 +1 1.05 30% 1.0 .29 19% .30 75% .24
Nov
8		 Presbyterian D- D- A F F 38% 17% 45% C- F B A A D- A+ A A+ C B+ A+ D- B- 45% 15% 40% F C+ D- F F A F D- F
0.99 50% 50% 14% -14 0 0.74 36% 1.2 .44 19% .40 76% .30 1.05 50% 17% 38% -5 +1 0.95 37% 1.3 .47 25% .53 73% .39
Nov
12		 Northern Kentucky D B A+ A+ A 67% 12% 21% A+ A+ F F F F A+ C A+ A+ B- A- A A- 38% 13% 49% C- B+ D- A+ A+ A+ B- C B-
1.04 64% 60% 44% +10 +3 1.29 13% 0.7 .09 25% .50 70% .35 0.87 55% 29% 27% -8 +1 0.89 34% 0.4 .14 25% .26 71% .18
Nov
15		 North Alabama C- A+ A- C B+ 35% 18% 47% D B F F F A D- F F D+ C+ A+ F+ D- 41% 13% 46% D+ D- D F F B F F F
1.14 74% 50% 35% +8 0 1.18 22% 0.6 .14 10% .23 57% .13 1.08 53% 17% 38% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.4 .45 20% .39 81% .31
Nov
21		 Morehead St. C C+ A F F 56% 13% 31% B+ F+ B+ C- B- C+ A+ B A+ B+ F+ C D+ D- 31% 33% 36% A- D C- A+ A+ A+ F B- F
1.18 60% 50% 14% -7 +2 0.93 42% 0.9 .39 14% .59 76% .45 0.95 67% 38% 36% +4 -2 1.05 35% 0.5 .16 28% .51 71% .36
Nov
23		 Louisiana Monroe A A+ A- A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% C A B- A A- C+ F A+ D- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 20% 49% C+ A+ B D- C+ B- A- F+ B-
1.40 76% 50% 43% +15 +1 1.34 39% 1.4 .54 14% .17 80% .14 0.79 53% 20% 21% -15 -1 0.71 21% 1.1 .23 19% .25 79% .20
Nov
29		 Central Arkansas C A+ B- A- A 35% 9% 56% B- A F F+ F A+ C- F F A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 17% 13% 70% B A+ A+ F B B- A+ F+ A+
1.12 74% 40% 40% +11 +1 1.26 13% 1.0 .13 14% .26 50% .13 0.79 44% 14% 29% -11 -1 0.80 13% 1.8 .24 18% .14 75% .10
Dec
2		 Dayton C- B B B- B 37% 24% 39% C B B+ D C+ F C- A C+ D+ F F B- F 42% 16% 42% C+ F D- A+ B B+ F D F
0.96 61% 42% 37% +4 -1 1.08 35% 0.9 .32 30% .29 80% .23 1.19 89% 43% 32% +12 +1 1.29 33% 0.9 .29 20% .59 80% .48
Dec
5		 South Alabama A+ C- F D+ C- 36% 7% 57% B+ C A- A+ A+ A+ F B D- B+ A- A+ F D 46% 8% 46% F D- A A+ A+ B+ B- A+ B+
1.33 59% 25% 31% -3 +2 1.00 39% 1.7 .66 12% .15 78% .12 0.95 48% 25% 43% +1 +2 1.08 17% 0.5 .08 16% .28 56% .16
Dec
12		 Austin Peay C+ B B+ C C+ 41% 16% 43% C+ B- D D D C+ F+ A+ D+ C C+ F D D- 39% 12% 49% D- D- D A+ A+ C- C+ F D
1.07 65% 44% 33% +4 +1 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 17% .24 79% .19 1.09 55% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 16% .29 88% .25
Dec
16		 North Carolina C- C F F+ D 28% 26% 46% C D+ F+ A+ B- B+ A C- A C- F B+ C+ C- 39% 7% 55% F+ C- B+ F D+ C- F B D
0.95 54% 25% 29% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.5 .26 12% .30 69% .20 1.27 76% 33% 33% +6 +2 1.18 29% 1.4 .42 12% .43 65% .28
Dec
20		 Jacksonville St. B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 21% 39% C- A+ F+ B+ D+ D+ A+ B- A+ F D F F F 45% 5% 50% D- F F A+ C- B F C+ F
1.21 53% 50% 53% +12 0 1.26 21% 1.2 .25 18% .57 79% .45 1.31 61% 50% 55% +18 +2 1.43 42% 0.7 .31 19% .54 67% .36
Dec
30		 The Citadel C+ C- D- B- D 51% 13% 36% B- D+ C+ B B- D A A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A 24% 11% 64% C- A- D D+ D A+ C- A- C
1.17 61% 33% 38% +3 +2 1.11 35% 1.1 .38 17% .36 84% .31 0.78 64% 0% 24% -12 0 0.78 31% 1.0 .31 27% .28 62% .17
Jan
3		 Mercer C F A+ F F 58% 7% 35% A+ F A+ B+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ C+ F A- B- C- 38% 13% 48% F+ D+ C+ A+ A+ B+ B- B- B-
1.15 44% 67% 27% -10 +3 0.88 44% 1.1 .50 18% .49 85% .42 1.06 70% 29% 32% +2 +1 1.08 31% 0.5 .17 19% .32 71% .22
Jan
7		 VMI C- B+ A+ B- B- 43% 23% 34% C B- F A+ D B- B- A- B+ D+ C D- A C- 42% 13% 44% D C- D+ A+ A F F A F
1.22 70% 55% 38% +11 0 1.23 21% 1.6 .33 15% .34 79% .27 1.01 55% 43% 26% -6 +1 0.92 28% 0.4 .10 9% .45 63% .28
Jan
10		 UNC Greensboro C- A+ C D+ B+ 53% 17% 30% A- A- F A+ F+ B F B F A+ A- A+ B+ A+ 43% 18% 39% F+ A+ F B D A+ F F+ F
1.20 78% 40% 33% +11 +2 1.27 12% 2.0 .23 11% .13 75% .09 0.84 47% 0% 29% -14 +1 0.75 35% 0.9 .32 29% .49 76% .37
Jan
14		 Western Carolina D+ C F D+ D- 44% 14% 42% B+ D C+ F F A+ A C- A- D+ D+ F D F 36% 17% 47% C- F D- A- C+ A B D- C+
1.08 59% 29% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.5 .13 8% .40 74% .29 1.15 59% 63% 36% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.8 .32 22% .25 75% .18
Jan
17		 Samford A A+ C A+ A 31% 44% 24% F A- F A+ C B+ B- A+ A F+ A- F F F 24% 16% 60% C F B+ D B- F+ A+ F B+
1.26 79% 40% 45% +11 -4 1.18 17% 1.8 .30 10% .31 94% .30 1.25 50% 50% 43% +8 0 1.18 19% 1.2 .22 10% .24 85% .20
Jan
21		 Chattanooga F+ D B+ F F 52% 13% 35% A- F C+ A B+ D+ F C+ F B+ B- F C- C- 41% 6% 53% F D C+ A+ A+ A A- F B-
1.00 52% 43% 17% -12 +2 0.83 34% 1.4 .47 15% .19 73% .14 0.98 55% 67% 35% +1 +2 1.08 19% 0.5 .10 21% .21 91% .19
Jan
23		 The Citadel B+ A+ A B- B 37% 8% 55% C+ B D+ A+ A- B C+ C+ C+ A- A+ A+ F C 31% 16% 53% C C A+ B+ A+ D C- A+ A
1.31 78% 50% 37% +11 +2 1.27 30% 1.5 .44 12% .30 71% .21 0.86 40% 0% 42% -5 0 0.92 13% 0.8 .10 16% .28 40% .11
Jan
29		 Western Carolina B+ C+ A+ C C+ 40% 20% 40% C C+ C- B C A+ A+ B A+ F F A+ D- F 33% 15% 52% C- F D+ F F C- F D- F
1.29 60% 60% 35% +6 0 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 9% .56 80% .45 1.31 87% 14% 38% +8 0 1.20 35% 1.3 .45 16% .49 75% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Wofford A D F D- F 59% 14% 27% B+ F+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C B- F B+ C+ 58% 8% 34% F C- A F D C B F C
1.32 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.94 38% 1.7 .66 9% .47 93% .44 1.11 52% 75% 29% -3 +3 1.02 20% 1.7 .33 15% .29 81% .24
Feb
4		 Furman D+ C- F A+ C+ 44% 25% 31% C C+ F F F B A+ C+ A B F F C+ F 45% 9% 47% D- F B B B+ A+ A A A
1.03 54% 29% 41% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 12% .35 73% .25 0.98 76% 75% 32% +10 +2 1.26 25% 0.9 .21 29% .19 60% .12
Feb
7		 VMI C+ C- A+ A+ A+ 20% 31% 49% F A- C+ A+ A- F D A+ C C+ B F C- D 39% 6% 56% F D- A F C- C C+ B- C+
1.23 60% 67% 46% +18 -3 1.33 40% 1.3 .52 24% .26 86% .22 0.99 48% 67% 33% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 17% .27 69% .19
Feb
11		 Chattanooga D+ F F F+ F 47% 17% 36% B- F F B- D- A+ A+ B- A+ A- A A+ B+ A+ 37% 16% 47% D A A- F C- C- B+ F B-
1.10 45% 25% 29% -11 +1 0.83 23% 1.2 .28 8% .57 74% .43 0.92 47% 25% 29% -9 +1 0.84 15% 1.6 .24 15% .21 83% .18
Feb
14		 Samford F F+ B+ F F 42% 24% 35% B F+ D- B+ D+ D- B+ B- B+ C- B+ A+ A A+ 36% 15% 49% D A B- F F C F F F
0.96 48% 46% 26% -6 0 0.89 21% 1.3 .26 16% .35 77% .27 1.09 53% 14% 26% -11 +1 0.81 21% 2.0 .42 13% .61 78% .48
Feb
18		 Furman B F B A+ A 41% 18% 41% B- A C F F D+ A B- A B D F+ A+ A+ 30% 12% 58% C+ A+ D B+ C F F F F
1.14 43% 44% 52% +6 +1 1.16 30% 0.5 .16 16% .33 74% .24 1.01 67% 50% 17% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.8 .28 13% .47 75% .35
Feb
21		 UNC Greensboro A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 24% 40% C- A+ D- A C F C- A+ B- C- F B- D F 33% 26% 41% B- F C- F F+ A- A B- A
1.30 78% 58% 45% +19 -1 1.38 25% 1.3 .33 18% .26 86% .22 1.12 87% 33% 37% +10 -1 1.20 29% 1.3 .36 19% .28 67% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 10.3 49.0 40.7 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 10.3 49.0 40.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 40.7    40.7
14-4 100.0% 49.0    49.0
13-5 100.0% 10.3    10.3
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 40.7% 39.1% 39.1% 13.4 0.0 1.2 8.2 6.1 0.3 24.8
14-4 49.0% 35.1% 35.1% 13.9 0.1 3.8 10.4 2.8 0.0 31.8
13-5 10.3% 31.1% 31.1% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.1 0.0 7.1
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 36.3% 36.3% 0.0% 13.7 63.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.9% 100.0% 13.4 0.0 7.6 51.6 38.6 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.8%
Lose Out 1.9%