East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.9 #128
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #179
Pace 65.7 #277
Improvement +0.8 #135

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #121 C+ C C B B-
Defense #144 D+ B+ B+ D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #41 1.21 #119 +4.7 #45
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #213 0.84 #68 +0.1 #174
Three Pointers 37% #267 0.96 #243 -3.0 #282
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #129 +1.8 #128
Freethrows 19.1 #91 75% #111 14.3 #78
Second Chance 28.0% #260 1.17 #60 0.33 #159
Turnovers 16.6% #176
Total Offense +1.5 #121

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #256 1.26 #300 -0.4 #196
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #317 0.69 #105 +2.3 #37
Three Pointers 48% #26 1.05 #230 -4.7 #334
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #269 -2.8 #269
Freethrows 17.9 #215 77% #344 13.8 #99
Second Chance 30.7% #180 0.82 #8 0.25 #37
Turnovers 19.4% #48
Total Defense +0.4 #144

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #86 0.9% #252
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.0% #148 4.6% #265
Possession Length 18.0 #257 17.2 #166
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #191 0.18 #221
Improvement +1.1 #106 -0.3 #215

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.7% 33.6% 26.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 99.4% 99.7% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.6% 97.1%
Conference Champion 59.8% 63.0% 37.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round32.7% 33.6% 26.8%
Second Round1.8% 1.9% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Home) - 87.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 34 - 6
Quad 418 - 421 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 289 @Presbyterian L 64 - 68 72%  -2  0 - 1 -8 -5 F A+ F -4 D+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 174 Northern Kentucky W 75 - 63 72%  +8  1 - 1 +8 -2 A+ F F +10 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 293 @North Alabama W 78 - 74 73%  -8  2 - 1 -0 +6 A F A+ -6 F F A
 Fri, Nov 21 308 Morehead St. W 77 - 62 89%  +2  3 - 1 +3 +4 F B B -0 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 356 Louisiana Monroe W 97 - 55 95%  +20  4 - 1 +25 +16 A+ A C+ +10 A+ C B-
 Sat, Nov 29 261 Central Arkansas W 80 - 57 84%  +10  5 - 1 +14 +1 A+ F A +13 A+ A- B
 Tue, Dec 2 75 @Dayton L 71 - 88 20%  -10  5 - 2 -6 +2 B- C+ F -7 F B- A+
 Fri, Dec 5 200 South Alabama W 91 - 65 76%  +5  6 - 2 +21 +19 C A+ A+ +2 F A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 186 @Austin Peay L 75 - 76 53%  -6  6 - 3 +0 +5 B D A -5 F A+ C
 Tue, Dec 16 26 @North Carolina L 58 - 77 7%  -10  6 - 4 -1 +3 C- B B+ -7 D D D+
 Sat, Dec 20 208 Jacksonville St. L 75 - 81 76%  -1  6 - 5 -12 +11 A+ C- D -23 F C B-
 Tue, Dec 30 360 @The Citadel W 74 - 49 90%  +13  7 - 5 1 - 0 +13 +0 D+ C F +15 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 3 160 Mercer W 77 - 71 69%  +1  8 - 5 2 - 0 +3 +5 F A+ C -2 D+ A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 7 332 VMI W 81 - 67 92%  +10  9 - 5 3 - 0 +0 +5 B D C+ -4 D A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 284 UNC Greensboro W 81 - 69 87% 
 Wed, Jan 14 283 @Western Carolina W 78 - 72 71% 
 Sat, Jan 17 229 @Samford W 75 - 72 60% 
 Wed, Jan 21 273 @Chattanooga W 74 - 69 69% 
 Sat, Jan 24 360 The Citadel W 82 - 62 97% 
 Thu, Jan 29 283 Western Carolina W 81 - 69 86% 
 Sat, Jan 31 223 @Wofford W 75 - 73 58% 
 Wed, Feb 4 150 Furman W 74 - 69 66% 
 Sat, Feb 7 332 @VMI W 79 - 69 82% 
 Wed, Feb 11 273 Chattanooga W 77 - 66 85% 
 Sat, Feb 14 229 Samford W 78 - 69 79% 
 Wed, Feb 18 150 @Furman L 71 - 72 45% 
 Sat, Feb 21 284 @UNC Greensboro W 78 - 72 70% 
 Wed, Feb 25 223 Wofford W 78 - 70 78% 
 Sat, Feb 28 160 @Mercer L 75 - 76 47% 
Totals 20 - 9 14 - 4 +2 +2 C+ C C +0 D+ B+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 6.3 14.4 17.4 12.8 6.3 1.4 59.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.1 8.5 4.7 1.1 0.0 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 5.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.7 7.2 11.8 16.7 19.4 18.6 12.8 6.3 1.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 100.0% 6.3    6.3
16-2 99.7% 12.8    12.3 0.5
15-3 94.0% 17.4    14.7 2.6 0.1
14-4 74.6% 14.4    8.3 5.4 0.7 0.0
13-5 37.7% 6.3    1.9 2.9 1.3 0.2
12-6 9.6% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 59.8% 59.8 45.0 11.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 57.5% 57.5% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6
17-1 6.3% 51.8% 51.8% 13.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.0
16-2 12.8% 43.2% 43.2% 13.5 0.3 2.5 2.3 0.4 7.3
15-3 18.6% 38.9% 38.9% 13.9 0.1 2.0 4.1 1.1 0.0 11.3
14-4 19.4% 33.0% 33.0% 14.2 0.0 0.9 3.5 1.9 0.1 13.0
13-5 16.7% 27.8% 27.8% 14.4 0.3 2.2 2.0 0.2 12.1
12-6 11.8% 23.4% 23.4% 14.7 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.2 9.0
11-7 7.2% 16.9% 16.9% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 5.9
10-8 3.7% 17.0% 17.0% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 3.0
9-9 1.6% 16.2% 16.2% 15.5 0.1 0.1 1.4
8-10 0.5% 12.1% 12.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 32.7% 32.7% 0.0% 14.0 67.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 11.9 0.6 28.0 56.5 14.3 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%