Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.1 #269
Expected Predictive Rating -8.3 #296
Pace 68.5 #188
Improvement -0.7 #226

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #313 C- D D- C D-
Defense #185 C- C C C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #342 1.25 #80 -2.9 #284
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #64 0.76 #169 +2.4 #63
Three Pointers 42% #158 0.92 #305 -1.5 #240
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #234 -2.0 #233
Freethrows 0.29 #211 72% #180 0.21 #203
Second Chance 24.2% #339 1.05 #136 0.25 #299
Turnovers 19.5% #335
Total Offense -5.5 #313

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #279 1.18 #204 +1.5 #124
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #83 0.87 #334 -2.4 #341
Three Pointers 41% #178 1.06 #246 -1.0 #236
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #245 -2.0 #245
Freethrows 0.29 #157 72% #186 0.21 #155
Second Chance 31.2% #204 1.04 #198 0.32 #205
Turnovers 16.9% #162
Total Defense -0.6 #185

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.6% #327 -1.2% #83
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.3% #191 5.1% #279
Possession Length 18.0 #255 16.2 #28
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #319 0.21 #317
Improvement -0.8 #223 +0.1 #187

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 88.0% 76.7% 98.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Home) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 70 - 11
Quad 32 - 113 - 22
Quad 43 - 25 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 8 @Purdue L 51 - 82 1% -18  0 - 1 -7 -7 F A+ B- -5 C B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 12 154 Middle Tennessee L 72 - 77 38% -8  0 - 2 -8 -2 C+ D D+ -6 D+ A C-
 Tue, Nov 18 163 Texas Arlington L 76 - 84 39% -3  0 - 3 -11 +7 C A+ C -18 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 184 Oregon St. W 73 - 69 33% +4  1 - 3 +2 +2 D+ B- D- +1 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 23 61 Akron L 59 - 97 8% -13  1 - 4 -29 -12 D- B+ F -17 D- F C+
 Mon, Nov 24 152 College of Charleston L 59 - 78 27% -12  1 - 5 -19 -14 F+ F C- -5 D- C C+
 Wed, Dec 3 298 Ball St. W 64 - 52 68% +1  2 - 5 +1 -10 D F+ F+ +12 B A A-
 Sat, Dec 6 156 @Western Kentucky L 79 - 80 20% -3  2 - 6 +2 +6 B C+ D- -4 D- B+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 81 @Notre Dame L 58 - 82 8% -11  2 - 7 -14 -7 C+ D F -8 F+ B+ B-
 Tue, Dec 16 74 Belmont L 78 - 83 15% -7  2 - 8 0 - 1 -0 -1 C F+ B- +1 B+ A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 162 Drake L 65 - 66 39% -2  2 - 9 0 - 2 -4 -5 F B+ D- +1 C- C A-
 Mon, Dec 29 121 @Bradley L 68 - 76 14% +2  2 - 10 0 - 3 -2 -2 D- C+ B+ -1 C+ A F
 Thu, Jan 1 87 @Illinois St. L 47 - 73 8% -14  2 - 11 0 - 4 -17 -21 F F+ F +5 C+ A+ D-
 Sun, Jan 4 110 Northern Iowa L 48 - 62 26% -12  2 - 12 0 - 5 -13 -15 C- F F +0 D- B- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 106 Murray St. L 69 - 79 24% -4  2 - 13 0 - 6 -9 -8 B- F F -1 B C+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 198 @Indiana St. W 72 - 69 26% +0  3 - 13 1 - 6 +4 -2 B+ F F +5 A+ D- D-
 Tue, Jan 13 121 Bradley L 90 - 94 OT 29% +3  3 - 14 1 - 7 -4 +9 A- C C -13 D- B F
 Tue, Jan 20 135 @Illinois-Chicago L 49 - 76 16% -13  3 - 15 1 - 8 -22 -18 F F F -5 D- C F+
 Wed, Jan 28 162 @Drake L 78 - 82 20% +6  3 - 16 1 - 9 -1 +10 A+ F C- -11 D+ C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 110 @Northern Iowa L 55 - 71 12% -16  3 - 17 1 - 10 -9 +2 C C B+ -14 F+ F A-
 Tue, Feb 3 198 Indiana St. L 72 - 73 47%
 Fri, Feb 6 160 @Valparaiso L 64 - 73 20%
 Mon, Feb 9 87 Illinois St. L 64 - 74 19%
 Thu, Feb 12 137 @Southern Illinois L 64 - 75 16%
 Wed, Feb 18 135 Illinois-Chicago L 67 - 72 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 106 @Murray St. L 73 - 86 11%
 Wed, Feb 25 74 @Belmont L 67 - 84 6%
 Sat, Feb 28 160 Valparaiso L 67 - 70 39%
Totals 5 - 23 3 - 16 -6 -6 C- D D- -1 C- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.6 6.0 9.8 5.7 1.2 0.1 23.2 10th
11th 12.3 27.0 24.3 9.5 1.3 0.0 74.5 11th
Total 12.3 27.6 30.3 19.4 7.7 2.1 0.5 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.1
5-15 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
4-16 19.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.4
3-17 30.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 30.2
2-18 27.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 27.6
1-19 12.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.3
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.3%