Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.8 #263
Expected Predictive Rating -9.4 #311
Pace 69.0 #190
Improvement +0.8 #131

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #328 D C- D- C F
Defense #142 C- C C+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #330 1.26 #80 -2.1 #254
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #52 0.72 #223 +2.2 #70
Three Pointers 41% #192 0.83 #343 -4.0 #306
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #289 -4.0 #288
Freethrows 17.2 #199 72% #188 12.5 #191
Second Chance 24.7% #324 1.20 #33 0.30 #238
Turnovers 19.3% #318
Total Offense -6.3 #328

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #270 1.11 #122 +2.6 #92
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #95 0.84 #302 -2.1 #326
Three Pointers 41% #173 1.10 #290 -1.9 #260
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #227 -1.4 #227
Freethrows 16.3 #135 74% #235 12.0 #211
Second Chance 29.9% #143 1.04 #182 0.31 #157
Turnovers 17.7% #108
Total Defense +0.4 #142

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.7% #329 -1.1% #84
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.2% #258 4.0% #252
Possession Length 17.6 #203 15.3 #5
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #264 0.19 #229
Improvement -2.7 #328 +3.6 #21

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 76.6% 57.1% 83.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 26.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 70 - 10
Quad 33 - 123 - 21
Quad 43 - 36 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 4 @Purdue L 51 - 82 1%  -18  0 - 1 -5 -5 F A+ C -5 C- A D
 Wed, Nov 12 123 Middle Tennessee L 72 - 77 31%  -8  0 - 2 -6 -3 B+ F C- -3 D+ A C
 Tue, Nov 18 156 Texas Arlington L 76 - 84 39%  -3  0 - 3 -11 +7 C A+ C -18 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 182 Oregon St. W 73 - 69 34%  +4  1 - 3 +2 +2 D B D- +1 A+ F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 64 Akron L 59 - 97 9%  -13  1 - 4 -29 -13 F B F -16 D- F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 149 College of Charleston L 59 - 78 27%  -12  1 - 5 -19 -14 F F C- -4 F C C+
 Wed, Dec 3 312 Ball St. W 64 - 52 73%  +1  2 - 5 -0 -11 F F F +12 B A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 155 @Western Kentucky L 79 - 80 20%  -3  2 - 6 +2 +4 B- B+ F -2 F A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 59 @Notre Dame L 58 - 82 6%  -11  2 - 7 -12 -5 B D+ F -9 F A- B
 Tue, Dec 16 73 Belmont L 78 - 83 16%  -7  2 - 8 0 - 1 -0 -0 C F C+ +1 A A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 169 Drake L 65 - 66 42%  -2  2 - 9 0 - 2 -5 -6 F A- F +1 C C+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 116 @Bradley L 68 - 76 13%  +2  2 - 10 0 - 3 -1 +0 D- B- A+ -2 B- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 85 @Illinois St. L 47 - 73 8%  -14  2 - 11 0 - 4 -16 -22 F F F +7 B- A+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 96 Northern Iowa L 48 - 62 22%  -12  2 - 12 0 - 5 -12 -15 C- F F +2 D C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 91 Murray St. L 69 - 79 20%  -4  2 - 13 0 - 6 -7 -6 B+ F F -0 B+ C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 191 @Indiana St. L 68 - 75 27% 
 Tue, Jan 13 116 Bradley L 67 - 73 27% 
 Tue, Jan 20 184 @Illinois-Chicago L 66 - 73 25% 
 Sun, Jan 25 130 Southern Illinois L 68 - 73 33% 
 Wed, Jan 28 169 @Drake L 65 - 73 23% 
 Sat, Jan 31 96 @Northern Iowa L 54 - 68 9% 
 Tue, Feb 3 191 Indiana St. L 71 - 72 47% 
 Fri, Feb 6 188 @Valparaiso L 64 - 71 27% 
 Mon, Feb 9 85 Illinois St. L 65 - 75 18% 
 Thu, Feb 12 130 @Southern Illinois L 65 - 76 16% 
 Wed, Feb 18 184 Illinois-Chicago L 69 - 70 46% 
 Sat, Feb 21 91 @Murray St. L 70 - 85 8% 
 Wed, Feb 25 73 @Belmont L 66 - 83 6% 
 Sat, Feb 28 188 Valparaiso L 67 - 68 47% 
Totals 6 - 23 4 - 16 -6 -6 D C- D- +0 C- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.3 1.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.6 3.2 3.9 1.3 0.1 9.1 9th
10th 0.3 2.4 6.9 7.7 2.4 0.1 19.8 10th
11th 2.8 9.8 17.2 18.7 11.7 3.4 0.3 0.0 63.8 11th
Total 2.8 9.8 17.4 21.1 19.2 14.5 8.5 4.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.1% 4.2% 4.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1
9-11 0.6% 0.6
8-12 1.8% 1.8
7-13 4.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.1
6-14 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.5
5-15 14.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.5
4-16 19.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.1
3-17 21.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.1
2-18 17.4% 17.4
1-19 9.8% 9.8
0-20 2.8% 2.8
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4%