IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Evansville
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.8	#315
Expected Predictive Rating	-10.6	#326

Pace	69.4	#168
Improvement	-4.5	#352

Offense
Total Offense	-5.8	#330

First Shot	-0.8	#194
After Offensive Rebound	-5.0	#361

Layup/Dunks	+0.2	#172
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.3	#185
3 Pt Jumpshots	+1.8	#118
Freethrows	-2.4	#314

Improvement	-5.0	#364

Defense
Total Defense	-3.0	#269

First Shot	-2.9	#270
After Offensive Rebounds	-0.2	#203

Layups/Dunks	-1.6	#234
2 Pt Jumpshots	-1.1	#282
3 Pt Jumpshots	+0.2	#182
Freethrows	-0.3	#211

Improvement	+0.5	#143

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.9	15.9

.500 or above	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
.500 or above in Conference	1.2%	2.9%	0.5%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	68.3%	52.1%	75.5%

First Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Home) - 30.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 6	0 - 8
Quad 3	2 - 12	2 - 20
Quad 4	4 - 5	6 - 25

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2024	85	@ North Texas	L	63-80	5%	0 - 1			-7.2	+3.6	-12.4
Nov 13, 2024	129	@ Middle Tennessee	L	63-80	11%	0 - 2			-12.2	-9.7	-1.7
Nov 16, 2024	214	Radford	L	81-92	38%	0 - 3			-16.7	+13.0	-30.8
Nov 19, 2024	29	@ Ohio St.	L	30-80	2%	0 - 4			-33.7	-34.5	-1.0
Nov 22, 2024	329	Green Bay	W	98-81	64%	1 - 4			+4.4	+3.8	-1.7
Nov 24, 2024	296	Campbell	W	66-53	56%	2 - 4			+2.7	-6.4	+9.9
Dec 03, 2024	133	@ Murray St.	L	61-63	11%	2 - 5	0 - 1		+2.6	-4.4	+6.9
Dec 07, 2024	108	Western Kentucky	L	65-79	17%	2 - 6			-12.8	-6.0	-6.6
Dec 12, 2024	172	Chattanooga	L	67-75	31%	2 - 7			-11.6	-5.8	-6.2
Dec 18, 2024	164	@ Texas Arlington	L	54-80	14%	2 - 8			-23.3	-16.1	-8.8
Dec 21, 2024	252	@ Ball St.	L	43-80	26%	2 - 9			-38.9	-27.1	-15.2
Dec 29, 2024	171	Missouri St.	L	66-71	31%
Jan 01, 2025	198	@ Southern Illinois	L	66-76	17%
Jan 04, 2025	150	Indiana St.	L	76-82	29%
Jan 08, 2025	141	Illinois St.	L	66-73	26%
Jan 11, 2025	80	@ Drake	L	55-74	4%
Jan 14, 2025	99	@ Northern Iowa	L	62-79	6%
Jan 18, 2025	130	Belmont	L	74-82	24%
Jan 22, 2025	192	Illinois-Chicago	L	71-75	35%
Jan 25, 2025	224	@ Valparaiso	L	70-78	22%
Jan 29, 2025	133	Murray St.	L	65-72	24%
Feb 02, 2025	130	@ Belmont	L	71-85	11%
Feb 05, 2025	198	Southern Illinois	L	69-73	36%
Feb 08, 2025	78	Bradley	L	65-78	11%
Feb 12, 2025	171	@ Missouri St.	L	63-74	15%
Feb 16, 2025	224	Valparaiso	L	73-75	41%
Feb 19, 2025	150	@ Indiana St.	L	73-85	14%
Feb 22, 2025	192	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	68-78	18%
Feb 26, 2025	80	Drake	L	58-71	12%
Mar 02, 2025	141	@ Illinois St.	L	63-76	13%
Projected Record						6 - 24	4 - 16

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0									0.0	1st
2nd													0.0	0.0	0.0								0.0	2nd
3rd												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0								0.1	3rd
4th										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0								0.2	4th
5th										0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0									0.4	5th
6th								0.0	0.1	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0										1.0	6th
7th								0.1	0.7	0.7	0.2	0.0											1.7	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	1.1	1.4	0.4	0.0												3.0	8th
9th					0.0	0.3	1.7	2.6	1.0	0.1													5.7	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.9	3.2	4.5	1.8	0.2	0.0													10.6	10th
11th		0.0	0.7	3.3	7.0	7.1	2.9	0.4	0.0														21.4	11th
12th	3.4	9.5	14.9	14.7	9.5	3.4	0.4	0.0															55.9	12th

Total	3.4	9.6	15.6	18.1	17.4	13.9	9.7	6.0	3.4	1.7	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0									Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6	0.0%
13-7	5.9%	0.0			0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0			0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6	0.0%																							0.0
13-7	0.0%																							0.0
12-8	0.1%		1.9%	1.9%		15.0																0.0		0.1
11-9	0.3%		0.7%	0.7%		15.0																0.0		0.3
10-10	0.8%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.0	0.8
9-11	1.7%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	1.7
8-12	3.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.4
7-13	6.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.0
6-14	9.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.7
5-15	13.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	13.9
4-16	17.4%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	17.4
3-17	18.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	18.0
2-18	15.6%																							15.6
1-19	9.6%																							9.6
0-20	3.4%																							3.4

Total	100%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	15.9																0.0	0.0	100.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	3.2%