Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.8 295
Results Rating -8.3 300
Pace 67.4 217
Improvement -3.0 296

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 311 C- D D D+ D-
Defense C- 247 D+ C- C C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 355 B- 62% 80 -4.0 316
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 114 C 39% 159 +2.4 61
Three Pointers 44% 122 D+ 32% 271 +0.2 168
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.4 333 C +0.0 173
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 211
Second Chance F+ 22.1% 350 C+ 1.08 106 D 0.24 325
Turnovers D 19.1% 316
Freethrows D+ 0.27 285 C 72% 191 D+ 0.20 272
Total Offense D -5.4 311

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 52% 115 B- 8.9% 71
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 119 B 3.1% 53
Three Pointers C 85% 174 B- 0.5% 84
Total C+ 58% 131 A- 3.7% 17

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 304 C- 60% 240 -1.9 113
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 113 C- 40% 262 +1.1 278
Three Pointers 44% 94 D- 38% 327 +3.8 334
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 83 D +3.5 313
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 280
Second Chance C- 32.0% 252 C 1.03 183 C- 0.33 234
Turnovers C 16.9% 179
Freethrows B- 0.28 96 C- 74% 258 C+ 0.20 113
Total Defense C- -2.4 247

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 188 C 11.0% 168
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 287 B+ 8.2% 41
Three Pointers D 89% 323 C- 0.7% 198
Total D+ 60% 279 C 5.9% 153

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 278 16.4 32
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 354 0.20 283
Improvement +0.1 #181 -3.1 #324

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 314 297 275
Results Rating Rank 321 292 268
Conference Record 2 - 18 2 - 18 4 - 16
Conference Finish 11 11 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 95% 73% 96%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 3.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 90 - 12
Quad 33 - 113 - 22
Quad 42 - 35 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 7 @Purdue L 51 - 82 1% -18  7% 0 - 1 D+ -7 F+ -9 F A+ B C- -2 C B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 12 167 Middle Tennessee L 72 - 77 33% -8  4% 0 - 2 D -8 D- -7 C+ D- D+ C- -2 D A+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 180 Texas Arlington L 76 - 84 36% -3  27% 0 - 3 D- -12 B- +4 C A+ C- F -16 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 158 Oregon St. W 73 - 69 23% +4  82% 1 - 3 C+ +4 C +0 C- C+ D- B +4 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 23 79 Akron L 59 - 97 8% -13  3% 1 - 4 F -30 F -15 F+ B+ F F -15 F+ F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 149 College of Charleston L 59 - 78 22% -12  2% 1 - 5 F -19 F -15 F F C D+ -4 F+ C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 313 Ball St. W 64 - 52 67% +1  51% 2 - 5 C -0 F -12 D F+ F+ A+ +12 B A A-
 Sat, Dec 6 147 @Western Kentucky L 79 - 80 14% -3  43% 2 - 6 C+ +3 C+ +3 B+ C D- C -1 D- B+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 86 @Notre Dame L 58 - 82 6% -11  1% 2 - 7 D- -14 F -10 C+ D- F+ D -5 F+ A- B-
 Tue, Dec 16 67 Belmont L 78 - 83 11% -7  0% 2 - 8 0 - 1 C +0 D+ -4 C F+ C+ B +5 A- A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 193 Drake L 65 - 66 39% -2  38% 2 - 9 0 - 2 D+ -6 F+ -10 F B+ F+ B +4 C- C+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 112 @Bradley L 68 - 76 10% +2  61% 2 - 10 0 - 3 C- -2 D+ -3 D- C+ B+ C+ +1 B- A F
 Thu, Jan 1 103 @Illinois St. L 47 - 73 8% -14  9% 2 - 11 0 - 4 F -18 F -24 F F F B+ +6 C+ A F+
 Sun, Jan 4 94 Northern Iowa L 48 - 62 16% -12  0% 2 - 12 0 - 5 D -11 F -17 D+ F F B +5 D B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 123 Murray St. L 69 - 79 23% -4  20% 2 - 13 0 - 6 D -10 F -11 C+ F F C+ +1 B C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 213 @Indiana St. W 72 - 69 23% +0  46% 3 - 13 1 - 6 C+ +3 D -5 B+ F F A- +8 A+ D- D-
 Tue, Jan 13 112 Bradley L 90 - 94 OT 22% +3  55% 3 - 14 1 - 7 C- -4 B+ +8 A C- C- F -11 D- B F
 Tue, Jan 20 109 @Illinois-Chicago L 49 - 76 9% -13  11% 3 - 15 1 - 8 F -20 F -19 F+ F F C- -2 D- C- F
 Wed, Jan 28 193 @Drake L 78 - 82 20% +6  88% 3 - 16 1 - 9 C- -3 B- +5 A+ F D+ F+ -9 D+ B- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 94 @Northern Iowa L 55 - 71 7% -16  5% 3 - 17 1 - 10 D+ -7 C- -1 C C A F -10 D- F A
 Tue, Feb 3 213 Indiana St. L 63 - 84 43% -15  1% 3 - 18 1 - 11 F -27 D- -8 D+ D- C- F -21 F F F+
 Fri, Feb 6 151 @Valparaiso L 63 - 70 OT 15% -1  25% 3 - 19 1 - 12 C- -4 F+ -9 C F D+ B+ +5 A+ F A
 Mon, Feb 9 103 Illinois St. W 88 - 80 18% +9  82% 4 - 19 2 - 12 B +10 A+ +20 A+ D+ A+ F -10 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 125 @Southern Illinois L 60 - 86 11% -15  8% 4 - 20 2 - 13 F -20 D -6 C+ F D- F -15 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 18 109 Illinois-Chicago L 46 - 84 21% -16  0% 4 - 21 2 - 14 F -37 F -23 F F D+ F -17 F C A
 Sat, Feb 21 123 @Murray St. L 75 - 88 11% -1  42% 4 - 22 2 - 15 D+ -7 D+ -3 B+ D C D+ -4 C- B+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 67 @Belmont L 67 - 86 3%
 Sat, Feb 28 151 Valparaiso L 67 - 72 32%
 Sun, Mar 1 125 Southern Illinois L 65 - 72 24%
Totals 5 - 24 3 - 17 -8 D -5 A C D- C- -2 D+ C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D B- C D+ C 29% 44% 44% D- C- F+ C+ D D D+ C D+ C- C- C- D- D 34% 22% 44% B- D+ C- C C- C B- C- C+
1.01 62% 39% 32% 0 -1 0.99 22% 1.1 .24 19% .27 72% .20 1.12 60% 40% 38% +4 -1 1.08 32% 1.0 .33 17% .28 74% .20
Nov
4		 Purdue F+ C- F F F 17% 33% 50% D- F A+ C- A+ B F F F C- D+ B+ F C- 27% 23% 50% B- C C A B+ C- C F D+
0.83 56% 24% 15% -19 -3 0.58 42% 1.0 .42 16% .08 50% .04 1.33 69% 36% 46% +12 -1 1.23 38% 1.0 .38 11% .29 81% .24
Nov
12		 Middle Tennessee D- B- A F B- 44% 31% 25% D- C+ D- D+ D- D+ A D- B+ C- F F A+ F+ 27% 31% 42% A D B A+ A+ C D+ A C+
1.01 62% 47% 25% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .41 71% .29 1.08 73% 65% 26% +7 -2 1.13 26% 0.6 .15 15% .28 59% .17
Nov
18		 Texas Arlington B- A F D- C 35% 26% 39% C C C- A+ A+ C- A+ C- A+ F F F F F 33% 28% 38% A F F F F A+ F F F
1.11 69% 25% 28% -3 -1 0.93 26% 2.0 .53 18% .55 71% .39 1.23 69% 64% 47% +18 -1 1.36 56% 1.3 .72 31% .50 83% .42
Nov
21		 Oregon St. C A F D C 31% 29% 40% F C- B+ D C+ D- A+ A- A+ B A F A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% D+ A+ F F F B- D- F+ F
1.08 69% 25% 29% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.9 .34 18% .63 80% .50 1.02 42% 63% 16% -14 +1 0.76 39% 1.5 .58 19% .42 83% .35
Nov
23		 Akron F B- A F F+ 30% 26% 44% D- F+ D- A+ B+ F A+ F A+ F F F C- F+ 42% 8% 50% D- F+ F F F B- F B- F
0.84 62% 45% 21% -6 -1 0.88 27% 1.6 .42 26% .44 65% .29 1.39 76% 50% 36% +10 +2 1.26 40% 2.1 .84 17% .47 74% .35
Nov
24		 College of Charleston F D- C F F 47% 21% 32% B+ F F A+ F C A- B- A- D+ B+ D F F 31% 20% 49% C+ F+ B- C- C+ C C- C- C-
0.84 52% 36% 18% -11 +1 0.81 6% 2.0 .11 14% .30 72% .22 1.11 53% 40% 42% +5 -1 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 17% .36 76% .27
Dec
3		 Ball St. F A+ A- F D 26% 23% 51% D D F+ D- F+ F+ A- C- B+ A+ B+ A B+ B- 31% 25% 44% A- B B A+ A A- B- C- C+
0.95 75% 45% 25% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 22% .35 78% .27 0.77 47% 25% 29% -10 -1 0.79 22% 0.4 .10 21% .26 71% .19
Dec
6		 Western Kentucky C+ A- D A+ A 12% 33% 56% F B+ C+ D+ C D- C F F+ C A- B F F+ 45% 24% 31% C D- D- A+ B+ A F+ C+ F+
1.08 67% 35% 45% +9 -3 1.13 31% 0.8 .26 21% .40 57% .22 1.10 44% 31% 53% +1 0 1.04 38% 0.6 .24 19% .39 74% .29
Dec
13		 Notre Dame F B- F+ B- B- 28% 22% 50% C- C+ C- F D- F+ D F F D A+ F+ F F 25% 29% 45% A F+ B+ A- A- B- C C- C
0.87 62% 30% 35% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.8 .17 20% .24 62% .15 1.23 38% 47% 57% +13 -2 1.24 29% 0.8 .24 18% .31 71% .22
Dec
16		 Belmont D+ F D B+ C 24% 19% 57% C- C F+ D F+ C+ A+ A A+ B B+ A+ F A 50% 13% 37% C- A- A A+ A+ C F D+ F
1.02 38% 30% 39% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.9 .22 17% .38 83% .32 1.09 56% 14% 45% +2 +2 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 18% .40 72% .29
Dec
21		 Drake F+ F+ C+ F F 22% 36% 42% F F C- A+ B+ F+ A+ B- A+ B C D+ C- C- 35% 18% 47% D+ C- C B C+ A- A+ A+ A+
0.99 50% 38% 26% -7 -3 0.82 29% 1.3 .37 18% .41 73% .30 1.01 59% 44% 35% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 18% .21 45% .09
Dec
29		 Bradley D+ C- C+ D C- 17% 47% 36% F D- D- A+ C+ B+ F C- F C+ F A+ D+ C- 26% 39% 35% A+ B- C A+ A F C- F+ D
0.99 56% 40% 32% -1 -5 0.91 25% 1.3 .33 16% .24 71% .17 1.10 79% 24% 37% +1 -3 0.98 28% 0.6 .18 7% .33 81% .27
Jan
1		 Illinois St. F D- F D+ F 21% 38% 40% F F D F F F D+ C D+ B+ C- D+ B- C+ 36% 23% 42% C+ C+ A+ D- A F+ D+ A C+
0.66 50% 17% 32% -11 -4 0.72 22% 0.6 .14 32% .27 69% .19 1.02 63% 42% 32% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.2 .18 13% .30 63% .19
Jan
4		 Northern Iowa F A+ C- F D+ 42% 26% 33% C- D+ F B F F C+ D+ C B A+ D+ F F+ 30% 21% 49% A- D C+ A+ B+ A+ C+ A- B-
0.75 72% 36% 7% -8 0 0.86 7% 1.0 .07 24% .27 69% .18 0.97 46% 44% 48% +8 -1 1.16 21% 0.8 .17 25% .23 64% .15
Jan
7		 Murray St. F A+ A+ F B 41% 35% 24% D- C+ F F F F B C+ B C+ C+ F A B 40% 17% 42% C B A- F+ C+ D- F A D
0.97 76% 50% 8% +3 -2 1.04 16% 0.4 .06 21% .34 74% .25 1.11 57% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 27% 1.3 .35 13% .43 67% .29
Jan
10		 Indiana St. D D+ B- A+ A- 38% 23% 39% C B+ F A+ F F F A+ F A- B+ D+ A+ A+ 47% 13% 40% C+ A+ F C+ D- D- D+ D+ D+
1.00 52% 46% 45% +6 0 1.14 7% 2.0 .14 21% .07 100% .07 0.96 54% 43% 18% -11 +2 0.84 33% 1.0 .33 15% .28 71% .20
Jan
13		 Bradley B+ A B+ A+ A+ 20% 36% 44% F+ A D- B+ C- C- A+ C+ A+ F D+ F B F+ 40% 28% 32% C+ D- D+ A+ B F D- D+ D-
1.18 70% 44% 45% +12 -3 1.20 25% 1.1 .28 20% .51 74% .38 1.24 63% 59% 32% +7 -1 1.13 29% 0.8 .24 8% .37 77% .29
Jan
20		 Illinois-Chicago F F B F F 25% 11% 64% C F+ D F F F D- A D+ C- F F+ A+ F+ 43% 29% 27% B D- B- F+ C- F D+ A+ B-
0.73 45% 40% 25% -12 0 0.80 31% 0.5 .17 28% .25 83% .21 1.13 73% 47% 21% +4 -1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 13% .34 60% .21
Jan
28		 Drake B- A+ B+ A+ A+ 23% 37% 40% F A+ F F F D+ F F F F+ F F C D- 18% 22% 60% B+ D+ D+ A B- F+ F D F
1.17 83% 42% 52% +18 -3 1.33 18% 0.6 .11 16% .21 58% .13 1.23 75% 50% 33% +5 -2 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 10% .63 74% .47
Jan
31		 Northern Iowa C- B A+ F B- 17% 30% 52% F C D- A+ C A F A+ F F F F B F 31% 16% 53% B D- F F F A A+ D- A+
0.95 63% 50% 25% -3 -3 0.91 19% 1.2 .23 14% .14 86% .12 1.22 87% 50% 31% +8 0 1.18 28% 1.7 .48 19% .08 75% .06
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Indiana St. D- D- A+ F C 17% 40% 43% F D+ D- D+ D- C- A- F+ B- F D- C+ F F 37% 15% 48% A F F F+ F F+ A A+ A+
1.01 50% 58% 25% +1 -4 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 16% .32 65% .21 1.34 68% 38% 48% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .43 14% .17 56% .09
Feb
6		 Valparaiso F+ F+ F A+ C+ 35% 25% 39% D+ C F+ F F D+ F F+ F B+ C+ A+ A A+ 23% 38% 40% A A+ F F F A A F B-
0.91 50% 23% 45% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.6 .13 19% .20 64% .12 1.01 55% 22% 26% -11 -3 0.73 43% 1.6 .69 20% .27 80% .22
Feb
9		 Illinois St. A+ D+ A A+ A+ 30% 30% 40% D+ A+ F A+ D+ A+ B- A+ A F F A F F 29% 20% 52% C+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F B C- B
1.33 53% 47% 65% +20 -2 1.38 8% 2.5 .21 11% .32 84% .27 1.21 81% 27% 41% +10 -1 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 11% .24 71% .17
Feb
12		 Southern Illinois D B+ A- C- B 21% 25% 55% D- C+ D- F F D- F B+ F F F A+ D- F+ 42% 13% 45% F F F D- F C- A+ F B+
0.88 64% 46% 31% +1 -2 1.00 23% 0.6 .14 22% .08 75% .06 1.26 74% 29% 36% +7 +1 1.18 43% 1.1 .47 16% .19 82% .16
Feb
18		 Illinois-Chicago F A+ F F F 21% 19% 60% D F F A+ F D+ F F F F D- C+ F F 28% 22% 50% B F D- B+ C A A+ F A+
0.71 80% 11% 18% -15 -1 0.70 16% 1.3 .22 22% .16 63% .10 1.30 64% 36% 60% +21 -1 1.42 41% 0.9 .38 23% .10 80% .08
Feb
21		 Murray St. D+ A D+ B+ A- 29% 25% 46% D B+ F A+ D C F A+ F D+ C+ A+ F C- 29% 10% 61% C- C- B+ C+ B+ F F+ F F
1.04 69% 36% 38% +6 -1 1.11 7% 4.0 .27 17% .10 83% .08 1.22 57% 20% 40% +3 +1 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 11% .41 92% .37



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 19.9 8.5 0.3 28.8 10th
11th 50.4 20.0 0.8 71.2 11th
Total 50.4 39.9 9.3 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.3
3-17 39.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 39.9
2-18 50.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 50.4
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 44.6%