Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.0 175
Results Rating -1.6 185
Pace 65.6 258
Improvement -1.0 220

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 220 C+ D+ D D+ B-
Defense C 154 C+ C+ D B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 193 B 64% 60 +2.1 103
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 312 A 47% 15 -1.7 264
Three Pointers 48% 42 D 31% 312 +1.2 142
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.9 70 C+ +0.9 134
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.06 115
Second Chance C- 29.2% 215 D+ 0.96 284 D+ 0.28 252
Turnovers D 19.1% 317
Freethrows D+ 0.28 252 D 68% 312 D+ 0.19 293
Total Offense C- -1.6 220

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B+ 59% 31 D+ 12.7% 286
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 6% 363 D- 8.6% 338
Three Pointers C 85% 173 C+ 0.7% 131
Total B- 60% 88 D+ 6.4% 269

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 197 B- 54% 72 -1.9 110
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 133 D+ 41% 291 +1.0 264
Three Pointers 40% 207 C+ 33% 126 -1.0 139
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 134 C+ -1.6 111
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.98 119
Second Chance C 30.5% 190 B- 0.98 104 C+ 0.30 144
Turnovers D 14.4% 319
Freethrows B+ 0.25 28 C+ 72% 138 B+ 0.18 31
Total Defense C +0.6 154

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 144 C 10.5% 188
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 47 D+ 3.0% 299
Three Pointers C+ 82% 117 B+ 1.9% 36
Total B- 52% 97 C 5.4% 187

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.9 240 17.3 175
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 195 0.19 236
Improvement -1.8 #272 +0.8 #140

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 201 176 150
Results Rating Rank 215 189 128
Conference Record 10 - 8 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 5 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 15% 12%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 15.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round15% 15% 12%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Home) - 92.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 35 - 45 - 8
Quad 413 - 517 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 90 High Point L 71 - 97 25% -17  6% 0 - 1 F -20 D- -7 C+ D F F -12 F C+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 152 Troy L 61 - 64 57% -7  0% 0 - 2 D+ -6 F -14 D+ D F A +9 B- A A-
 Fri, Nov 14 94 @Northern Iowa L 54 - 70 18% -10  3% 0 - 3 D+ -7 D- -8 D+ D D C -1 C B+ F+
 Sun, Nov 23 212 Queens W 90 - 79 68% +11  95% 1 - 3 B- +5 A+ +16 A+ F A+ F -10 B F F
 Thu, Nov 27 130 Richmond W 73 - 72 39% +6  96% 2 - 3 C+ +3 C- -2 B+ B+ F B +5 C B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 103 Illinois St. L 65 - 72 29% -4  12% 2 - 4 C- -2 D+ -3 B+ F D- C+ +1 B D- D+
 Wed, Dec 3 227 @Elon W 97 - 88 49% -1  49% 3 - 4 B +8 A+ +15 B+ F+ A D- -7 B- C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 146 Harvard W 79 - 69 55% +7  90% 4 - 4 B- +8 B +5 A+ B+ F B- +2 B- B F
 Thu, Dec 18 319 @Manhattan W 75 - 68 72% +2  74% 5 - 4 C -0 D- -7 C D+ F B+ +7 C+ C B-
 Sun, Dec 21 268 Charleston Southern W 84 - 76 78% +6  85% 6 - 4 C -1 C- -0 C B- C+ C -1 B- B- F
 Wed, Dec 31 178 Mercer W 74 - 72 62% +3  82% 7 - 4 1 - 0 C- -2 D+ -3 B F+ C+ C+ +1 A D- F
 Sat, Jan 3 247 Western Carolina L 77 - 80 OT 74% -3  21% 7 - 5 1 - 1 D -11 D -6 C- D B- D+ -5 C F C
 Wed, Jan 7 274 @Chattanooga W 78 - 67 59% +5  64% 8 - 5 2 - 1 B- +8 C+ +2 C B D B+ +6 C+ B B-
 Sat, Jan 10 358 VMI W 69 - 48 94% +10  83% 9 - 5 3 - 1 C+ +2 F -13 F+ B+ F A+ +16 A+ D A+
 Wed, Jan 14 190 @Samford W 77 - 73 42% +2  56% 10 - 5 4 - 1 B- +5 C +0 C C- C- B +5 B- C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 238 Wofford L 70 - 74 73% +3  72% 10 - 6 4 - 2 D -11 D -5 F A+ F+ D- -7 D D D
 Wed, Jan 21 348 @The Citadel L 75 - 77 OT 81% +6  68% 10 - 7 4 - 3 D- -12 D -5 D- F C+ D- -7 C+ F F+
 Fri, Jan 23 301 @UNC Greensboro W 89 - 66 66% +5  89% 11 - 7 5 - 3 A +18 A+ +16 A D A+ B +4 C+ C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 190 Samford W 78 - 73 65% +4  75% 12 - 7 6 - 3 C +0 B- +5 A A+ F D+ -5 B F F
 Sun, Feb 1 274 Chattanooga W 75 - 70 78% +12  95% 13 - 7 7 - 3 C- -4 C- -1 B- C+ F C- -3 B+ F C+
 Wed, Feb 4 131 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 75 OT 28% +5  82% 13 - 8 7 - 4 C +1 D -5 A D F B+ +6 C+ A+ F+
 Sun, Feb 8 301 UNC Greensboro L 64 - 67 83% -4  13% 13 - 9 7 - 5 D- -14 F -13 F D- F+ C -1 D- A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 11 178 @Mercer L 64 - 69 39% +2  67% 13 - 10 7 - 6 C- -3 F+ -9 F D+ A- B+ +6 A+ B F
 Sat, Feb 14 358 @VMI W 90 - 72 87% +12  99% 14 - 10 8 - 6 C+ +5 B- +5 A- C C- C -1 D+ A F
 Wed, Feb 18 131 East Tennessee St. L 69 - 78 50% -3  22% 14 - 11 8 - 7 D -10 D -5 F C- A+ D -5 D- A+ C
 Sat, Feb 21 238 @Wofford W 76 - 67 51% +4  74% 15 - 11 9 - 7 B- +8 B- +4 A F C- B +4 C B F+
 Wed, Feb 25 348 The Citadel W 76 - 61 92%
 Sat, Feb 28 247 @Western Carolina W 75 - 74 54%
Totals 16 - 12 10 - 8 -1 C- -2 D- C+ B- C +1 D D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B A D C+ 38% 25% 48% B- C+ C- D+ D+ D D+ D D+ C B- D+ C+ C+ 38% 22% 40% C+ C+ C B- C+ D B+ C+ B+
1.06 64% 47% 31% +1 +1 1.06 29% 1.0 .28 19% .28 68% .19 1.08 54% 41% 33% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.0 .30 14% .25 72% .20
Nov
3		 High Point D- A- A+ F+ C+ 40% 17% 44% C C+ A+ F D F A- B- A- F F D F+ F 43% 28% 30% A+ F A- F C+ F A+ A+ A+
0.97 68% 50% 29% +3 +1 1.08 44% 0.6 .26 30% .37 74% .27 1.33 81% 41% 39% +13 -1 1.26 26% 1.3 .34 8% .22 53% .12
Nov
7		 Troy F F F A D 41% 11% 48% B+ D+ D+ F+ D F D D D- A B F A- B 35% 10% 55% C+ B- A+ B A A- B+ B A-
0.89 42% 20% 41% -4 +1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 25% .23 67% .16 0.94 50% 60% 29% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 20% .24 69% .17
Nov
14		 Northern Iowa D- A+ A+ F D- 39% 4% 57% A D+ D+ D- D D D F F C C- F B+ C- 45% 19% 36% C+ C C A+ B+ F+ D- F F
0.84 74% 50% 14% -10 +2 0.86 22% 0.8 .17 20% .22 55% .12 1.09 62% 56% 29% +3 +1 1.09 22% 0.7 .16 11% .30 82% .24
Nov
23		 Queens A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 41% 6% 53% B+ A+ B- F F A+ C+ F+ C- F B- F+ B- C+ 27% 25% 48% A+ B B+ F F F B- F C
1.43 81% 67% 41% +16 +2 1.39 37% 0.6 .23 6% .36 67% .24 1.25 57% 46% 32% 0 -1 1.00 24% 1.9 .45 6% .29 82% .24
Nov
27		 Richmond C- A+ B- D+ A- 26% 26% 49% C- B+ B B B+ F A+ F D B C B C B 41% 12% 47% F C F A+ B+ A+ C F D
1.06 83% 42% 30% +5 -2 1.09 35% 1.3 .44 23% .40 43% .17 1.04 60% 33% 35% +1 +1 1.06 39% 0.5 .19 25% .33 88% .29
Nov
28		 Illinois St. D+ D+ B+ B+ B 39% 14% 47% A B+ F+ F F D- F F F C+ D- D B- C 20% 37% 43% A+ B C F D- D+ D B C-
0.97 55% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.7 .13 19% .20 55% .11 1.08 70% 42% 32% +2 -3 1.00 27% 1.3 .36 15% .32 67% .21
Dec
3		 Elon A+ A+ C- B 38% 0% 62% A+ B+ C F F+ A A+ B+ A+ D- B+ A+ C- B 45% 2% 53% F+ B- C D+ C- F F+ D- F
1.35 75% 34% +7 +3 1.21 33% 0.8 .28 11% .49 77% .38 1.23 50% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 33% 1.1 .35 8% .38 76% .29
Dec
6		 Harvard B A+ A+ F A+ 41% 11% 48% B- A+ D A+ B+ F A+ A- A+ B- B D F+ C 35% 38% 27% A+ B- B B- B F A- A+ A+
1.16 83% 100% 24% +10 +1 1.25 26% 1.5 .39 23% .38 80% .31 1.01 53% 43% 40% +2 -3 1.02 23% 0.9 .20 13% .19 55% .10
Dec
18		 Manhattan D- C+ A C+ C- 42% 8% 50% A- C C+ F+ D+ F C+ F F B+ F C+ A C 28% 30% 43% A- C+ F+ A C B- C+ A+ B+
1.08 62% 50% 36% +4 +2 1.14 39% 0.9 .36 24% .27 36% .10 0.98 67% 38% 26% -3 -2 0.93 33% 0.9 .29 17% .28 69% .19
Dec
21		 Charleston Southern C- D+ D C+ C 38% 21% 41% C+ C F A+ B- C+ B B+ B+ C D D+ A+ B 43% 8% 49% D B- A- D B- F A+ A+ A+
1.13 52% 33% 35% -3 0 0.96 20% 1.8 .35 11% .39 77% .30 1.02 63% 40% 26% -4 +2 0.98 23% 1.0 .23 12% .14 56% .08
Dec
31		 Mercer D+ C B- A B- 45% 14% 41% B+ B B- F F+ C+ A+ F B C+ A+ D+ B- A 32% 35% 33% A+ A C F D- F A+ D A+
1.10 57% 43% 43% +5 +1 1.16 36% 0.6 .22 16% .39 59% .23 1.07 39% 40% 32% -7 -2 0.84 33% 1.2 .40 10% .15 78% .12
Jan
3		 Western Carolina D A+ D D+ C 27% 25% 48% D- C- C- F D B- D F F D+ A+ B F D+ 40% 33% 27% A- C F D+ F C C+ A B
1.08 80% 36% 33% +5 -1 1.09 26% 0.8 .21 14% .28 47% .13 1.12 41% 33% 53% 0 -1 0.98 41% 1.1 .44 17% .27 63% .17
Jan
7		 Chattanooga C+ D+ F A- C- 45% 8% 47% A- C C- A+ B D C- B C+ B+ A+ A F C+ 27% 18% 55% C C+ D- A+ B B- A+ C A+
1.14 55% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 31% 1.4 .44 16% .35 75% .26 0.98 40% 30% 40% -1 0 0.98 26% 0.7 .18 17% .14 75% .11
Jan
10		 VMI F C- A- D F 24% 15% 61% C- F+ A C- B+ F A F C- A+ A+ A A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% B- A+ D- C D A+ B- B- B-
1.05 60% 50% 32% 0 0 1.02 49% 1.0 .49 30% .39 56% .22 0.73 29% 25% 22% -21 0 0.60 30% 0.9 .28 24% .26 69% .18
Jan
14		 Samford C C+ A+ F C 27% 24% 49% C C A F C- C- D+ F+ D B C- A+ A+ B 46% 15% 38% F B- A- F C+ C- C- F D-
1.10 60% 69% 26% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.7 .27 14% .27 69% .18 1.04 63% 25% 25% -5 +1 0.94 18% 1.3 .24 13% .38 78% .29
Jan
17		 Wofford D F A+ F F+ 23% 26% 51% F F B+ A A+ F+ C- C+ C D- D- F B D- 44% 16% 40% C D C+ F D D A D- A-
1.10 45% 58% 25% -5 -2 0.89 37% 1.4 .51 19% .29 80% .23 1.16 64% 50% 30% +2 +1 1.08 27% 1.3 .33 13% .23 77% .18
Jan
21		 The Citadel D A C+ F F+ 44% 9% 47% B D- C- F F C+ C- A+ B- D- F A+ A+ B- 37% 10% 53% F+ C+ D F F F+ F F F
1.07 75% 40% 23% 0 +2 1.05 31% 0.6 .18 14% .27 81% .22 1.10 67% 20% 23% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.3 .38 14% .50 77% .38
Jan
23		 UNC Greensboro A+ A F A+ A+ 36% 15% 49% B- A F A+ D A+ F+ A+ C B F A+ A+ B 40% 13% 47% F C+ B+ D- C+ D+ B D+ C+
1.40 74% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 20% 1.4 .28 8% .20 92% .19 1.04 74% 17% 23% -4 +1 0.96 22% 1.1 .25 14% .33 72% .24
Jan
29		 Samford B- A+ A+ F A 37% 23% 40% B A B- A+ A+ F A+ C A D+ A- F A+ C+ 18% 38% 44% A+ B F C F F C A+ B+
1.21 81% 70% 24% +10 0 1.21 29% 1.7 .50 22% .40 75% .30 1.13 50% 52% 25% -2 -4 0.91 36% 1.1 .39 6% .36 55% .20
Feb
1		 Chattanooga C- D+ A+ C+ C+ 50% 11% 39% A- B- D- A+ C+ F B B+ B+ C- A D B B+ 25% 22% 53% B- B+ F D+ F C+ C- C C-
1.14 55% 60% 35% +1 +2 1.09 26% 1.6 .41 18% .39 76% .30 1.06 46% 45% 30% -5 -1 0.90 36% 1.2 .42 17% .29 75% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 East Tennessee St. D A+ A+ D+ A 45% 9% 47% B+ A D D D F F F F B+ B- A F C+ 44% 25% 31% B C+ B+ A+ A+ F+ D+ B C-
0.98 76% 75% 32% +10 +2 1.26 25% 0.9 .21 29% .19 60% .12 1.03 54% 29% 41% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 12% .35 73% .25
Feb
8		 UNC Greensboro F F+ A F F 59% 9% 33% A+ F D+ F D- F+ B+ B+ A- C A+ F+ F D 44% 19% 38% F+ D- B A+ A+ D+ C+ C+ C+
1.02 52% 50% 27% -6 +3 0.96 27% 0.9 .24 17% .33 76% .25 1.06 33% 44% 56% +2 +1 1.08 23% 0.6 .14 14% .35 68% .24
Feb
11		 Mercer F+ F F D F 35% 9% 56% B F F+ B D+ A- D+ F F+ B+ A+ D- B+ A+ 53% 14% 33% F A+ C- A B F C- F F+
0.96 42% 20% 32% -9 +1 0.87 25% 1.1 .28 14% .23 62% .14 1.04 37% 43% 29% -13 +2 0.80 34% 0.8 .27 11% .35 86% .30
Feb
14		 VMI B- A+ A+ C+ A- 26% 8% 66% B- A- F+ A+ C C- B- B- B C A+ F D D+ 28% 4% 69% D- D+ B A+ A F D+ F F
1.27 85% 100% 36% +14 +1 1.32 30% 1.3 .40 17% .34 75% .25 1.01 33% 50% 35% -5 +1 0.94 21% 0.6 .12 10% .31 85% .27
Feb
18		 East Tennessee St. D B+ A+ F F 30% 12% 58% C F B- D- C- A+ A+ C A+ D A+ D F F+ 41% 18% 41% C D- D+ A+ A+ C C- B- C
1.01 67% 50% 17% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.8 .28 13% .47 75% .35 1.14 43% 44% 52% +6 +1 1.16 30% 0.5 .16 16% .33 74% .24
Feb
21		 Wofford B- C F A+ A 55% 11% 34% B+ A F+ D- F C- C+ C- C B C- F A+ B- 48% 8% 44% F+ C B+ B- B F+ C A+ A-
1.19 58% 20% 56% +9 +3 1.26 22% 1.0 .22 16% .31 76% .24 1.05 58% 75% 23% -4 +2 0.98 24% 0.9 .21 11% .33 53% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.3 29.9 30.2 2nd
3rd 4.2 17.3 21.5 3rd
4th 0.0 18.1 2.5 20.7 4th
5th 1.8 23.9 25.7 5th
6th 1.9 1.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 3.8 46.6 49.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 49.7% 16.6% 16.6% 14.3 0.8 4.6 2.9 0.1 41.4
10-8 46.6% 13.7% 13.7% 15.0 0.0 1.1 4.0 1.3 40.2
9-9 3.8% 12.4% 12.4% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.3
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 14.6 84.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.3% 100.0% 14.3 9.3 55.4 34.6 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.7%
Lose Out 1.1%