Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.4 #150
Expected Predictive Rating +2.0 #138
Pace 66.5 #254
Improvement +0.9 #125

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #154 B D+ D+ D B+
Defense #162 B- C D- A B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #156 1.32 #34 +3.5 #71
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #327 0.87 #45 -2.7 #307
Three Pointers 49% #42 0.96 #245 +2.6 #103
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #82 +3.5 #89
Freethrows 15.9 #265 68% #298 10.8 #279
Second Chance 29.9% #214 0.93 #300 0.28 #267
Turnovers 18.1% #270
Total Offense +0.4 #154

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #284 1.10 #105 +3.2 #76
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #51 0.78 #213 -2.3 #329
Three Pointers 40% #221 0.95 #109 +2.0 #108
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #87 +3.0 #91
Freethrows 12.2 #13 72% #157 8.8 #352
Second Chance 30.8% #184 1.09 #239 0.34 #219
Turnovers 13.8% #327
Total Defense +0.0 #162

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #57 -1.8% #50
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.2% #104 -4.1% #104
Possession Length 17.1 #161 17.7 #254
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #83 0.18 #218
Improvement +0.8 #135 +0.1 #180

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.3% 23.9% 17.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 98.1% 98.7% 92.3%
.500 or above in Conference 96.4% 97.4% 86.8%
Conference Champion 27.3% 28.9% 11.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round23.2% 23.8% 17.1%
Second Round1.1% 1.1% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 90.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 45 - 7
Quad 415 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 86 High Point L 71 - 97 27%  -17  0 - 1 -19 -5 C+ D- F -13 F B- F
 Fri, Nov 7 137 Troy L 61 - 64 57%  -7  0 - 2 -5 -11 C- D- F +6 B+ A A-
 Fri, Nov 14 96 @Northern Iowa L 54 - 70 22%  -10  0 - 3 -8 -5 D+ D+ D+ -4 C B- F
 Sun, Nov 23 207 Queens W 90 - 79 72%  +11  1 - 3 +5 +19 A+ F A+ -13 B F F
 Thu, Nov 27 115 Richmond W 73 - 72 38%  +6  2 - 3 +5 +1 B A F +4 B C A+
 Fri, Nov 28 85 Illinois St. L 65 - 72 27%  -4  2 - 4 -0 -2 B+ F F +1 A F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 163 @Elon W 97 - 88 42%  -1  3 - 4 +11 +19 A+ F A+ -8 B+ C F
 Sat, Dec 6 196 Harvard W 79 - 69 71%  +7  4 - 4 +5 +6 A+ B+ F -1 C+ B+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 311 @Manhattan W 75 - 68 73%  +2  5 - 4 +1 -3 C+ D- F +4 B- D C
 Sun, Dec 21 225 Charleston Southern W 84 - 76 75%  +6  6 - 4 +1 +4 C+ B- C+ -3 B- C+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 160 Mercer W 74 - 72 64%  +3  7 - 4 1 - 0 -1 +2 B+ D- B- -3 A+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 3 283 Western Carolina L 77 - 80 OT 83%  -3  7 - 5 1 - 1 -13 -2 C- D- B -11 C F D-
 Wed, Jan 7 273 @Chattanooga W 78 - 67 65%  +5  8 - 5 2 - 1 +8 +4 C- C+ C +4 C C+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 332 VMI W 81 - 67 91% 
 Wed, Jan 14 229 @Samford W 74 - 73 54% 
 Sat, Jan 17 223 Wofford W 78 - 71 73% 
 Wed, Jan 21 360 @The Citadel W 78 - 65 88% 
 Sat, Jan 24 284 @UNC Greensboro W 77 - 73 66% 
 Thu, Jan 29 229 Samford W 77 - 70 75% 
 Sun, Feb 1 273 Chattanooga W 77 - 67 82% 
 Wed, Feb 4 128 @East Tennessee St. L 69 - 74 34% 
 Sun, Feb 8 284 UNC Greensboro W 80 - 70 82% 
 Wed, Feb 11 160 @Mercer L 75 - 77 41% 
 Sat, Feb 14 332 @VMI W 78 - 70 77% 
 Wed, Feb 18 128 East Tennessee St. W 72 - 71 55% 
 Sat, Feb 21 223 @Wofford W 75 - 74 52% 
 Wed, Feb 25 360 The Citadel W 81 - 62 95% 
 Sat, Feb 28 283 @Western Carolina W 77 - 73 65% 
Totals 18 - 10 12 - 6 +0 +0 B D+ D+ +0 B- C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 4.8 9.1 7.7 3.8 0.9 27.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 7.5 11.2 6.2 1.2 0.1 27.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 7.0 8.0 3.2 0.3 0.0 19.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.7 5.4 1.5 0.1 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.1 0.9 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 5.4 9.6 15.0 17.9 19.2 15.6 8.9 3.8 0.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9
16-2 98.7% 3.8    3.5 0.3
15-3 86.4% 7.7    5.8 1.8 0.1
14-4 58.4% 9.1    4.5 3.9 0.6 0.0
13-5 24.9% 4.8    1.3 2.3 1.1 0.2
12-6 5.3% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.3% 27.3 16.1 8.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.9% 46.6% 46.6% 12.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5
16-2 3.8% 43.3% 43.3% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.2
15-3 8.9% 35.5% 35.5% 13.4 0.2 1.5 1.3 0.1 5.8
14-4 15.6% 31.7% 31.7% 13.8 0.1 1.6 2.6 0.7 0.0 10.6
13-5 19.2% 25.7% 25.7% 14.1 0.0 0.9 2.8 1.2 0.0 14.3
12-6 17.9% 20.1% 20.1% 14.3 0.3 1.8 1.4 0.1 14.3
11-7 15.0% 16.2% 16.2% 14.6 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.1 12.6
10-8 9.6% 13.3% 13.3% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 8.3
9-9 5.4% 10.1% 10.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 4.8
8-10 2.4% 9.6% 9.6% 15.5 0.1 0.1 2.2
7-11 0.9% 6.2% 6.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.8
6-12 0.3% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 14.0 76.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.1 14.6 63.4 22.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%