Furman
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#113
Expected Predictive Rating+16.7#20
Pace64.1#305
Improvement-1.1#254

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#141
First Shot-1.1#208
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#56
Layup/Dunks-4.1#318
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#39
Freethrows-1.4#270
Improvement+0.8#115

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#117
First Shot+4.0#62
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#331
Layups/Dunks-3.5#310
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.0#1
Freethrows-0.3#208
Improvement-1.9#320
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.6% 26.1% 19.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.4 12.7
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 97.0% 87.7%
Conference Champion 34.7% 38.7% 19.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round24.6% 26.1% 19.2%
Second Round3.4% 3.8% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Away) - 78.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 38 - 39 - 6
Quad 414 - 223 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 130   @ Belmont W 76-74 43%     1 - 0 +6.7 +2.6 +4.1
  Nov 11, 2024 211   Jacksonville W 78-69 79%     2 - 0 +3.5 +1.5 +1.6
  Nov 15, 2024 202   Tulane W 75-67 77%     3 - 0 +3.1 +4.0 -0.4
  Nov 23, 2024 298   @ Charleston Southern W 67-46 76%     4 - 0 +16.6 -3.9 +21.8
  Nov 26, 2024 143   Seattle W 61-56 58%     5 - 0 +5.8 -4.2 +10.7
  Nov 30, 2024 8   @ Kansas L 51-86 6%     5 - 1 -14.1 -7.6 -8.6
  Dec 04, 2024 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 76-73 56%     6 - 1 +4.5 +7.9 -3.2
  Dec 07, 2024 110   Princeton W 69-63 60%     7 - 1 +6.5 -0.5 +7.4
  Dec 14, 2024 253   South Carolina St. W 68-64 85%     8 - 1 -4.0 +3.7 -7.0
  Dec 21, 2024 243   @ Harvard W 77-63 67%     9 - 1 +12.4 +13.3 +0.6
  Jan 01, 2025 311   @ Western Carolina W 74-66 78%    
  Jan 04, 2025 161   @ UNC Greensboro W 66-65 50%    
  Jan 08, 2025 354   @ The Citadel W 73-60 88%    
  Jan 11, 2025 151   Wofford W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 15, 2025 142   East Tennessee St. W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 18, 2025 172   Chattanooga W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 22, 2025 344   @ VMI W 76-64 86%    
  Jan 25, 2025 235   @ Mercer W 74-70 65%    
  Jan 29, 2025 118   Samford W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 142   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 05, 2025 311   Western Carolina W 77-63 90%    
  Feb 08, 2025 172   @ Chattanooga W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 235   Mercer W 77-67 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 161   UNC Greensboro W 69-63 71%    
  Feb 19, 2025 118   @ Samford L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 22, 2025 344   VMI W 79-61 95%    
  Feb 26, 2025 354   The Citadel W 76-57 95%    
  Mar 01, 2025 151   @ Wofford L 68-69 49%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.0 9.1 10.4 6.9 2.9 0.7 34.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.0 8.9 5.7 1.5 0.1 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.1 7.2 3.3 0.4 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.8 1.7 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 1.0 0.1 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.2 8.4 12.2 15.2 16.4 15.2 11.9 7.0 2.9 0.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9 0.0
16-2 98.3% 6.9    6.4 0.5
15-3 87.7% 10.4    8.0 2.4 0.1
14-4 60.2% 9.1    4.6 3.8 0.8 0.0
13-5 24.5% 4.0    0.9 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.7% 34.7 23.4 8.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 57.7% 54.6% 3.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 6.9%
17-1 2.9% 52.4% 51.8% 0.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.0 1.4 1.3%
16-2 7.0% 44.7% 44.7% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 3.9 0.1%
15-3 11.9% 37.6% 37.6% 12.1 0.3 3.3 0.9 0.0 7.4
14-4 15.2% 30.9% 30.9% 12.4 0.1 2.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 10.5
13-5 16.4% 24.5% 24.5% 12.6 0.0 1.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.4
12-6 15.2% 18.5% 18.5% 12.8 0.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 12.4
11-7 12.2% 14.9% 14.9% 13.1 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 10.4
10-8 8.4% 12.0% 12.0% 13.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 7.4
9-9 5.2% 9.6% 9.6% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.7
8-10 2.9% 6.8% 6.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7
7-11 1.3% 5.6% 5.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
6-12 0.5% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.6% 24.6% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 12.2 8.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 75.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 9.9 0.5 1.0 6.3 4.7 8.9 8.4 15.7 40.8 13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 8.3% 10.8 1.7 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 8.1% 11.0 8.1