Gardner-Webb
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#236
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#233
Pace72.7#73
Improvement-1.1#241

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#228
First Shot-0.7#199
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#264
Layup/Dunks+3.3#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#279
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#272
Freethrows+0.6#135
Improvement-0.7#222

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#245
First Shot-2.0#241
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#227
Layups/Dunks-1.9#255
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#109
Freethrows-1.5#283
Improvement-0.4#206
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 5.9% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 7.8% 18.5% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 41.8% 68.7% 32.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.1% 1.2%
First Four2.6% 2.3% 2.7%
First Round3.2% 4.8% 2.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Away) - 25.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 49 - 713 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 6   @ Tennessee L 64-80 2%     0 - 1 +6.1 +8.1 -2.6
  Nov 08, 2024 295   @ NC Central W 88-82 52%     1 - 1 +1.1 +7.3 -6.4
  Nov 11, 2024 47   @ Pittsburgh L 64-83 6%     1 - 2 -5.7 -7.2 +2.4
  Nov 15, 2024 175   Elon W 80-79 45%     2 - 2 -2.2 +9.6 -11.8
  Nov 19, 2024 221   @ Charlotte L 54-60 36%     2 - 3 -6.8 -14.6 +7.2
  Nov 26, 2024 228   SE Louisiana W 73-69 47%     3 - 3 +0.3 -2.9 +3.0
  Nov 27, 2024 279   Bethune-Cookman W 79-64 58%     4 - 3 +8.5 +1.9 +5.7
  Nov 29, 2024 140   @ Belmont L 74-83 22%     4 - 4 -5.2 -5.7 +1.1
  Dec 04, 2024 151   @ Wofford L 64-88 23%     4 - 5 -20.7 -5.9 -16.3
  Dec 07, 2024 295   NC Central L 77-78 70%     4 - 6 -10.8 -4.0 -6.8
  Dec 14, 2024 213   Queens L 83-85 54%     4 - 7 -7.4 +9.0 -16.4
  Dec 17, 2024 254   @ Georgia Southern L 81-86 44%     4 - 8 -7.9 +1.2 -8.7
  Dec 21, 2024 150   @ East Carolina W 84-79 23%     5 - 8 +8.3 +10.7 -2.5
  Jan 02, 2025 285   @ Charleston Southern L 63-72 49%     5 - 9 0 - 1 -13.3 -13.7 +0.8
  Jan 04, 2025 283   Presbyterian W 63-61 68%     6 - 9 1 - 1 -7.2 -10.3 +3.2
  Jan 08, 2025 205   Winthrop W 89-83 51%     7 - 9 2 - 1 +1.3 +9.9 -8.7
  Jan 11, 2025 107   @ High Point L 55-96 15%     7 - 10 2 - 2 -34.5 -21.2 -12.2
  Jan 15, 2025 204   @ Radford L 75-79 32%     7 - 11 2 - 3 -3.6 +3.1 -6.9
  Jan 18, 2025 346   South Carolina Upstate W 97-68 83%     8 - 11 3 - 3 +14.5 +10.6 +2.2
  Jan 22, 2025 172   UNC Asheville L 53-61 44%     8 - 12 3 - 4 -10.9 -19.4 +7.9
  Jan 29, 2025 190   Longwood W 92-87 48%     9 - 12 4 - 4 +1.1 +10.0 -9.2
  Feb 01, 2025 205   @ Winthrop L 93-96 32%     9 - 13 4 - 5 -2.7 +10.4 -12.8
  Feb 06, 2025 172   @ UNC Asheville L 74-81 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 285   Charleston Southern W 77-72 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 346   @ South Carolina Upstate W 82-77 66%    
  Feb 19, 2025 190   @ Longwood L 74-80 29%    
  Feb 22, 2025 107   High Point L 76-82 30%    
  Feb 26, 2025 204   Radford W 73-72 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 283   @ Presbyterian L 72-73 48%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.1 0.3 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.8 4.6 2.2 0.2 7.8 3rd
4th 0.7 7.5 6.4 0.4 15.0 4th
5th 0.3 7.6 12.4 1.6 21.9 5th
6th 0.4 8.3 16.4 3.9 0.0 28.9 6th
7th 0.3 5.4 11.0 3.0 0.1 19.8 7th
8th 1.2 2.8 0.8 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 1.6 8.6 20.3 27.7 24.6 12.9 3.8 0.5 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 16.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.5% 16.3% 16.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
10-6 3.8% 9.3% 9.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.4
9-7 12.9% 7.1% 7.1% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 12.0
8-8 24.6% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.1 1.2 23.3
7-9 27.7% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 1.2 26.5
6-10 20.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.4 19.9
5-11 8.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.5
4-12 1.6% 1.6
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%