Gardner-Webb
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -18.5 364
Results Rating -20.5 363
Pace 73.7 50
Improvement +1.4 130

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ 358 D F+ D- D- B-
Defense F+ 360 F+ D- D+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 78 D 53% 307 -0.1 183
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 221 F+ 30% 355 -2.7 305
Three Pointers 41% 180 D+ 31% 282 -1.5 234
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 80 D- -4.9 334
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 314
Second Chance F+ 22.7% 348 D 0.94 299 F+ 0.21 350
Turnovers D- 20.1% 341
Freethrows D 0.26 309 D 68% 319 D- 0.18 326
Total Offense F+ -9.6 358

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 29% 359 C- 12.0% 243
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 173 D 7.2% 309
Three Pointers C- 81% 248 B+ 0.1% 18
Total D- 45% 342 D+ 6.3% 262

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 104 F 67% 361 +5.7 347
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 269 B- 36% 99 -1.1 101
Three Pointers 41% 188 D- 38% 345 +2.5 297
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 272 F+ +6.0 357
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.16 356
Second Chance F+ 35.8% 347 C- 1.07 246 D- 0.38 333
Turnovers D+ 15.0% 290
Freethrows C+ 0.29 156 D+ 74% 265 C 0.22 167
Total Defense F+ -8.9 360

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 237 D 7.0% 325
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 191 C- 4.2% 214
Three Pointers D- 90% 341 D 0.3% 313
Total D+ 60% 281 D 3.7% 320

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 118 16.7 67
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 157 0.20 262
Improvement -0.5 #216 +1.9 #82

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 364 363 361
Results Rating Rank 364 363 358
Conference Record 1 - 15 1 - 15 2 - 14
Conference Finish 9 9 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 13.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 30 - 70 - 14
Quad 41 - 131 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 59 @Minnesota L 60 - 87 1% -25  0% 0 - 1 F+ -15 F -11 F F+ C- D+ -4 F D+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 41 @Clemson L 59 - 97 0% -21  0% 0 - 2 F -22 D- -6 C- D+ F F -16 C+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 227 @Elon L 84 - 95 6% -16  1% 0 - 3 D- -12 C- -2 C D- D+ F+ -9 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 93 @DePaul L 62 - 93 1% -21  0% 0 - 4 F -22 F -14 F D+ D- D+ -5 F A C+
 Sat, Nov 22 130 @Richmond L 67 - 102 2% -28  1% 0 - 5 F -30 F -12 B- F F F -16 F F D
 Wed, Nov 26 154 Navy L 51 - 84 5% -16  0% 0 - 6 F -33 F -19 F F+ F F -15 D- F B
 Fri, Nov 28 287 SE Louisiana L 68 - 76 15% +2  63% 0 - 7 F+ -15 F+ -9 D+ B- F D -6 C- B- D
 Sat, Nov 29 108 @UNC Wilmington L 62 - 88 2% -12  18% 0 - 8 F -19 F+ -9 C- F F F -10 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 212 @Queens L 74 - 107 5% -14  0% 0 - 9 F -33 F+ -10 F A B- F -21 F F D
 Sat, Dec 6 266 Georgia Southern L 84 - 88 18% -3  33% 0 - 10 D- -13 D+ -3 C+ D- D+ F -10 D- C- F
 Mon, Dec 15 238 Wofford L 57 - 83 15% -11  7% 0 - 11 F -33 F -24 F F F F+ -9 C F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 15 @Tennessee L 52 - 94 0% -26  11% 0 - 12 F -20 F -12 D D C- F+ -8 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 268 Charleston Southern L 79 - 89 19% +1  47% 0 - 13 0 - 1 F -19 D -5 F B+ D+ F -14 D- F D
 Sat, Jan 3 135 @Winthrop L 77 - 88 3% +5  72% 0 - 14 0 - 2 D+ -6 B- +5 A- F A+ F -12 F A D-
 Wed, Jan 7 90 @High Point L 49 - 104 1% -38  0% 0 - 15 0 - 3 F -46 F -30 F F+ F F+ -9 C- F D
 Wed, Jan 14 233 Radford L 80 - 89 14% -5  28% 0 - 16 0 - 4 F+ -16 C- -0 D+ C- A- F -15 D C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 277 Presbyterian L 55 - 92 20% -20  0% 0 - 17 0 - 5 F -47 F -24 F F+ F F -22 F D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 262 @Longwood L 56 - 91 8% -17  2% 0 - 18 0 - 6 F -38 F -20 F D F F -18 F F D
 Fri, Jan 23 297 South Carolina Upstate W 67 - 65 23% -3  20% 1 - 18 1 - 6 D -9 D- -8 D- D+ D- C -1 C+ B D+
 Thu, Jan 29 223 @UNC Asheville L 50 - 69 6% -12  0% 1 - 19 1 - 7 F -20 F -16 F D+ F D- -7 F C D
 Wed, Feb 4 262 Longwood L 66 - 86 18% -9  0% 1 - 20 1 - 8 F -29 F -14 D+ F F F -15 F A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 277 @Presbyterian L 62 - 68 9% +0  51% 1 - 21 1 - 9 D -10 D- -8 B- F D+ C- -2 D- B- C+
 Thu, Feb 12 135 Winthrop L 85 - 103 6% -13  3% 1 - 22 1 - 10 F -19 C +0 A D F F -18 F F C+
 Sat, Feb 14 90 High Point L 87 - 112 3% -15  1% 1 - 23 1 - 11 F -22 C +2 A+ F A+ F -21 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 17 268 @Charleston Southern L 66 - 75 8% -10  0% 1 - 24 1 - 12 D- -12 F -14 C F D+ B- +3 A D- F
 Thu, Feb 19 233 @Radford L 70 - 82 6% -12  8% 1 - 25 1 - 13 D- -13 D -6 C- C+ D D- -7 C- F C+
 Thu, Feb 26 223 UNC Asheville L 66 - 78 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 297 @South Carolina Upstate L 68 - 82 10%
Totals 1 - 27 1 - 15 -19 F+ -10 C+ D- B- F+ -9 D+ D D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ D F+ D+ D- 42% 34% 41% B- D F+ D F+ D- D D D- F+ F B- D- F+ 42% 18% 41% D+ F+ F+ C- D- D+ C+ D+ C
0.95 53% 30% 31% -5 +1 0.93 23% 0.9 .21 20% .26 68% .18 1.21 67% 36% 38% +6 +1 1.16 36% 1.1 .38 15% .29 74% .20
Nov
3		 Minnesota F D F B- F 37% 29% 33% C- F C- F F+ C- A+ F A+ D+ F A+ C- F 52% 13% 35% F+ F F B+ D+ B+ F B- F
0.83 53% 7% 35% -11 -1 0.78 25% 0.5 .11 19% .47 59% .28 1.21 84% 17% 35% +12 +2 1.29 38% 0.9 .34 19% .52 67% .34
Nov
7		 Clemson D- F A+ C- D- 48% 9% 43% A+ C- D C+ D+ F A+ F A+ F F A- A+ B- 41% 5% 55% D- C+ F D F F B A A-
0.84 38% 50% 32% -10 +2 0.86 18% 1.0 .18 23% .48 65% .32 1.39 81% 33% 26% +2 +2 1.11 46% 1.1 .51 4% .30 65% .19
Nov
15		 Elon C- A B- F+ C 42% 20% 38% C+ C B+ F D- D+ D- F F F+ D- C+ F F 33% 12% 55% B F C F F A- F+ B+ D
1.11 68% 42% 30% +3 0 1.08 40% 0.7 .29 17% .24 60% .14 1.26 65% 33% 50% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.4 .47 20% .38 65% .25
Nov
18		 DePaul F F F C- F 35% 23% 42% C+ F C+ F+ D+ D- F+ F F D+ F F B F 43% 18% 38% D F A+ C- A C+ A F B-
0.78 40% 23% 33% -10 -1 0.81 30% 0.8 .23 23% .24 53% .13 1.17 73% 64% 30% +9 +1 1.22 20% 1.2 .23 18% .24 81% .20
Nov
22		 Richmond F B+ F A+ A- 11% 36% 53% F B- F F+ F F F F F F F A- F F 32% 29% 39% C F F C+ F D B+ B+ A-
0.89 67% 21% 46% +5 -4 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 23% .19 64% .12 1.36 84% 29% 48% +14 -1 1.27 39% 1.0 .39 12% .27 72% .20
Nov
26		 Navy F C+ A- F F 27% 23% 50% C F F C+ F+ F C- C C- F F B D- F+ 28% 26% 46% B+ D- F F F B C F D
0.77 62% 45% 17% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 24% .24 75% .18 1.26 69% 33% 38% +5 -1 1.09 43% 1.6 .70 21% .34 83% .29
Nov
28		 SE Louisiana F+ C F C+ D+ 38% 20% 43% C+ D+ F A+ B- F A+ D+ A D F C A+ C- 29% 22% 49% C C- D+ A B- D F F F
0.95 60% 25% 35% -1 0 1.00 21% 1.8 .38 29% .49 72% .36 1.06 79% 36% 21% -4 -1 0.92 31% 0.7 .22 15% .53 78% .41
Nov
29		 UNC Wilmington F+ F+ F A D+ 35% 14% 51% A- C- D- F F F C- B- C- F F C+ F F 32% 21% 47% C- F A F C+ F A+ D+ A+
0.90 50% 0% 38% -5 +1 0.94 20% 0.5 .10 20% .24 77% .18 1.27 72% 33% 44% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.4 .34 10% .18 73% .13
Dec
3		 Queens F+ F F+ F+ F 40% 24% 36% D+ F B A A B- D- A+ C F F F F F 36% 19% 45% B- F D+ F F D B A+ A
1.01 27% 31% 30% -16 0 0.69 38% 1.3 .49 14% .28 89% .25 1.46 71% 64% 50% +20 0 1.43 31% 1.7 .52 14% .27 59% .16
Dec
6		 Georgia Southern D+ D+ F A+ C- 60% 6% 33% A C+ F B D- D+ A+ A- A+ F B F F D- 51% 7% 42% F D- B+ F C- F F B+ D-
1.12 55% 0% 44% +1 +3 1.10 24% 1.1 .28 20% .47 82% .38 1.18 50% 50% 39% 0 +3 1.07 23% 1.4 .31 11% .42 68% .28
Dec
15		 Wofford F D- A F F 48% 22% 30% C- F F D- F F C+ A+ B+ F+ B- C- C- C- 39% 20% 41% B C F F F C+ C- A- C+
0.82 50% 50% 14% -10 +1 0.83 13% 1.0 .13 23% .32 88% .28 1.20 53% 40% 35% -1 0 1.00 49% 1.2 .57 16% .34 65% .22
Dec
21		 Tennessee F B+ F F D 30% 19% 52% C+ D F B D C- F F F F+ F C F+ F 46% 9% 45% F F B- C C+ F A+ B A+
0.74 63% 10% 25% -11 0 0.80 15% 1.0 .15 19% .16 56% .09 1.34 73% 40% 40% +11 +2 1.29 44% 1.1 .47 13% .20 67% .13
Dec
31		 Charleston Southern D F B C+ F 48% 13% 38% A F C- A+ B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F B- F F D- 48% 12% 40% D+ D- C- F F D F C- F
1.07 28% 43% 35% -13 +2 0.79 28% 1.4 .38 14% .52 88% .46 1.21 54% 67% 40% +5 +2 1.16 29% 1.4 .41 16% .50 68% .34
Jan
3		 Winthrop B- C A+ B+ A 27% 17% 56% D+ A- F D F A+ C- F F F F A+ B- F 46% 13% 41% D+ F F A+ A D- F F+ F
1.14 57% 67% 38% +8 0 1.17 14% 1.0 .14 10% .31 58% .18 1.30 86% 0% 32% +6 +2 1.17 47% 0.5 .24 12% .54 81% .44
Jan
7		 High Point F F B F F 36% 13% 52% C+ F F A F+ F F F F F+ C+ F B+ C 48% 12% 40% D+ C- F D F D C- C- C-
0.62 40% 43% 17% -19 +1 0.66 18% 1.3 .23 30% .11 33% .04 1.31 59% 71% 29% +1 +2 1.08 40% 1.3 .50 11% .37 77% .28
Jan
14		 Radford C- A F F D- 52% 8% 40% A- D+ F A+ C- A- A+ A+ A+ F C+ A+ F D+ 49% 13% 38% F+ D F A+ C- F F D+ F
1.13 69% 0% 25% -3 +3 1.02 20% 1.7 .33 14% .43 81% .35 1.26 56% 14% 43% +1 +2 1.07 43% 0.7 .31 11% .46 76% .35
Jan
17		 Presbyterian F F F D- F 34% 20% 45% D F F B+ F+ F A F B- F D F F F 53% 26% 21% D F C F D- F D+ F F+
0.79 47% 22% 30% -10 0 0.82 18% 1.2 .21 24% .38 60% .23 1.31 64% 50% 45% +10 0 1.23 32% 1.2 .39 13% .36 77% .28
Jan
21		 Longwood F F A+ F F 46% 17% 38% C+ F B F D F F F F F F F B+ F 37% 23% 40% C F F F F D B+ F+ B
0.80 41% 50% 28% -9 +1 0.85 33% 0.6 .21 30% .25 58% .14 1.30 79% 58% 29% +9 0 1.19 48% 1.3 .61 17% .26 80% .21
Jan
23		 South Carolina Upstate D- F+ F C- F 60% 12% 29% A D- B- F D+ D- D- A- D C A+ A F B- 43% 23% 34% C C+ C A B D+ F D+ F
1.01 48% 17% 33% -9 +3 0.90 34% 0.9 .31 18% .24 77% .18 0.98 40% 27% 44% -5 0 0.91 28% 0.7 .21 17% .40 73% .29
Jan
29		 UNC Asheville F F+ A+ F F 53% 6% 40% A F F+ B- D+ F F F F D- F A+ F F+ 26% 24% 50% F F F A C D F A D
0.84 48% 67% 21% -11 +3 0.85 24% 1.0 .24 22% .15 57% .09 1.16 73% 10% 48% +7 -1 1.14 37% 0.8 .29 15% .41 62% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Longwood F C- D D D- 53% 6% 40% A D+ D F F F B- F D+ F F C D F 58% 15% 26% F F A A+ A+ F C- A+ B
0.93 60% 33% 32% -1 +3 1.06 25% 0.5 .13 25% .38 60% .23 1.21 77% 38% 36% +12 +2 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 15% .33 60% .20
Feb
7		 Presbyterian D- C D+ A+ C+ 54% 17% 29% B B- F+ F F D+ D- F F C- F B A+ D- 51% 27% 22% D D- F A+ B- C+ F D+ F
0.98 58% 38% 43% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.5 .12 17% .23 33% .08 1.07 74% 33% 20% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.7 .28 21% .46 70% .32
Feb
12		 Winthrop C C+ C- A+ A- 49% 9% 42% A A D- C+ D F C- F D- F C F F F 44% 2% 55% F F F F F C+ F+ C- F+
1.11 59% 40% 43% +7 +2 1.20 23% 1.1 .26 21% .31 63% .20 1.34 54% 100% 47% +10 +3 1.27 42% 1.3 .53 16% .43 75% .32
Feb
14		 High Point C C A+ A+ A+ 56% 11% 33% A- A+ F F F A+ A- F C+ F F F F F 33% 10% 57% C+ F F A F A+ F F F
1.11 60% 67% 50% +12 +2 1.31 0% 0.0 .00 13% .38 62% .24 1.43 79% 67% 39% +14 +1 1.33 52% 0.9 .48 20% .47 90% .42
Feb
17		 Charleston Southern F A- F+ F C- 43% 17% 40% B+ C F F F D+ F C+ F B- B+ A+ B+ A+ 59% 7% 34% F A C+ F D- F D- C+ D
0.89 65% 30% 25% -4 +1 0.97 18% 0.1 .02 13% .17 73% .12 1.01 50% 0% 30% -9 +3 0.90 28% 1.2 .33 13% .31 65% .20
Feb
19		 Radford D B- B+ F C- 53% 18% 29% B- C- F+ A+ C+ D F+ F F D- F A+ C+ C- 31% 10% 58% D+ C- D F F C+ F+ F F
1.01 63% 44% 27% 0 +1 1.06 24% 1.6 .38 20% .25 57% .15 1.19 73% 0% 32% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.3 .42 19% .43 92% .39



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 78.3 20.2 1.5 100.0 9th
Total 78.3 20.2 1.5 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13 1.5% 1.5
2-14 20.2% 20.2
1-15 78.3% 78.3
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 69.5%