Gardner-Webb
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -18.3 #363
Expected Predictive Rating -18.7 #359
Pace 73.5 #64
Improvement -0.7 #224

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #357 D- D- F+ D+ C+
Defense #361 F+ D- D C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #129 1.00 #341 -2.1 #258
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #246 0.56 #361 -2.8 #314
Three Pointers 42% #154 0.91 #310 -1.6 #243
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #352 -6.5 #349
Freethrows 0.27 #296 71% #240 0.19 #298
Second Chance 24.6% #334 0.94 #291 0.23 #341
Turnovers 20.5% #352
Total Offense -9.5 #357

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #133 1.35 #358 -5.1 #340
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #229 0.73 #121 +0.6 #143
Three Pointers 41% #187 1.15 #340 -2.7 #302
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #354 -7.2 #356
Freethrows 0.28 #99 73% #208 0.20 #109
Second Chance 35.3% #330 1.13 #310 0.40 #341
Turnovers 14.0% #328
Total Defense -8.8 #361

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #113 0.8% #237
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -14.0% #359 12.5% #356
Possession Length 16.7 #115 16.6 #73
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #144 0.21 #297
Improvement -1.3 #257 +0.6 #153

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 98.5% 90.5% 99.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Away) - 5.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 30 - 70 - 15
Quad 42 - 122 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 76 @Minnesota L 60 - 87 1% -25  0 - 1 -16 -9 F+ F+ C- -7 F C- B
 Fri, Nov 7 33 @Clemson L 59 - 97 0% -21  0 - 2 -21 -3 C D+ F+ -18 C+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 192 @Elon L 84 - 95 5% -16  0 - 3 -10 +2 C D- D+ -12 F F B
 Tue, Nov 18 94 @DePaul L 62 - 93 1% -21  0 - 4 -22 -12 F+ C- F+ -7 F A C
 Sat, Nov 22 136 @Richmond L 67 - 102 3% -28  0 - 5 -30 -9 B- F F -19 F F D
 Wed, Nov 26 179 Navy L 51 - 84 7% -16  0 - 6 -34 -18 F F+ F -18 D- F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 271 SE Louisiana L 68 - 76 13% +2  0 - 7 -14 -6 C- C+ F -8 C C+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 116 @UNC Wilmington L 62 - 88 2% -12  0 - 8 -20 -8 C- F F -13 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 3 208 @Queens L 74 - 107 5% -14  0 - 9 -33 -6 F A C -25 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 6 260 Georgia Southern L 84 - 88 18% -3  0 - 10 -13 -0 C D- C- -12 D- C F
 Mon, Dec 15 200 Wofford L 57 - 83 12% -11  0 - 11 -32 -20 F F F -12 C- F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 18 @Tennessee L 52 - 94 0% -26  0 - 12 -21 -10 D+ D C -11 F C F
 Wed, Dec 31 246 Charleston Southern L 79 - 89 16% +1  0 - 13 0 - 1 -18 -0 F+ B D+ -17 D- F D+
 Sat, Jan 3 123 @Winthrop L 77 - 88 2% +5  0 - 14 0 - 2 -6 +8 A- F A+ -14 F A D-
 Wed, Jan 7 98 @High Point L 49 - 104 2% -38  0 - 15 0 - 3 -47 -29 F F+ F -11 C F D+
 Wed, Jan 14 234 Radford L 80 - 89 15% -5  0 - 16 0 - 4 -16 +1 D+ C- A- -17 D C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 262 Presbyterian L 55 - 92 19% -20  0 - 17 0 - 5 -46 -22 F D- F -24 F D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 264 @Longwood L 56 - 91 8% -17  0 - 18 0 - 6 -38 -17 F D+ F -21 F F D-
 Fri, Jan 23 302 South Carolina Upstate W 67 - 65 25% -3  1 - 18 1 - 6 -9 -5 D- C D- -4 C+ B D+
 Thu, Jan 29 209 @UNC Asheville L 50 - 69 5% -12  1 - 19 1 - 7 -19 -14 F D+ F -8 F+ C D
 Mon, Feb 2 246 @Charleston Southern L 71 - 88 6%
 Wed, Feb 4 264 Longwood L 72 - 81 19%
 Sat, Feb 7 262 @Presbyterian L 65 - 80 7%
 Thu, Feb 12 123 Winthrop L 70 - 88 5%
 Sat, Feb 14 98 @High Point L 68 - 94 1%
 Thu, Feb 19 234 @Radford L 73 - 90 6%
 Thu, Feb 26 209 UNC Asheville L 68 - 80 12%
 Sat, Feb 28 302 @South Carolina Upstate L 68 - 81 11%
Totals 2 - 26 2 - 14 -18 -9 D- D- F+ -9 F+ D- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.8 2.5 1.4 0.1 4.9 8th
9th 51.2 33.8 8.9 0.8 0.0 94.6 9th
Total 51.2 34.6 11.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11 0.3% 0.3
4-12 2.5% 2.5
3-13 11.5% 11.5
2-14 34.6% 34.6
1-15 51.2% 51.2
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 44.8%