IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Gardner-Webb
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-16.1	#363
Expected Predictive Rating	-18.0	#355

Pace	75.5	#43
Improvement	+0.1	#180

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#349	D-	F	F	D+	C+
Defense	#359	F	F	D	B-	C

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	39%	#168	1.02	#322	-2.5	#268
2 Pt. Jumpers	18%	#220	0.58	#350	-2.5	#301
Three Pointers	43%	#145	0.97	#238	+0.1	#175
1st FG Attempt			0.92	#314	-4.9	#313
Freethrows	16.3	#242	70%	#266	11.4	#256
Second Chance	23.4%	#342	0.96	#280	0.22	#347
Turnovers					19.8%	#337
Total Offense					-8.2	#349

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	39%	#174	1.38	#364	-4.7	#324
2 Pt. Jumpers	20%	#197	0.80	#253	-0.3	#209
Three Pointers	41%	#180	1.12	#312	-2.3	#275
1st FG Attempt			1.16	#353	-7.4	#353
Freethrows	15.8	#110	71%	#138	11.3	#267
Second Chance	34.7%	#313	1.20	#330	0.42	#347
Turnovers					14.5%	#303
Total Defense					-8.0	#359

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	0.7%	#145	0.3%	#186
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-10.1%	#329	14.1%	#354
Possession Length	16.5	#111	16.4	#57
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.20	#109	0.21	#307
Improvement	+0.0	#187	+0.1	#183

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	16.0	16.0

.500 or above	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
.500 or above in Conference	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	90.7%	81.6%	92.9%

First Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Home) - 19.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 5	0 - 8
Quad 3	0 - 5	0 - 13
Quad 4	2 - 13	2 - 26

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	76 @Minnesota	L	60 - 87	2%	-25	0 - 1		-16	-9	F	F	C-	-7	F	C-	B+
Fri, Nov 7	39 @Clemson	L	59 - 97	1%	-21	0 - 2		-22	-5	C	D-	F	-17	B-	F	F
Sat, Nov 15	163 @Elon	L	84 - 95	5%	-16	0 - 3		-9	+3	C	D-	D	-10	F	F	A+
Tue, Nov 18	102 @DePaul	L	62 - 93	2%	-16	0 - 4		-23	-11	D-	D	F	-8	F	A+	B-
Sat, Nov 22	115 @Richmond	L	67 - 102	3%	-28	0 - 5		-28	-9	B-	F	F	-17	F	F	F
Wed, Nov 26	193 Navy	L	51 - 84	10%	-16	0 - 6		-35	-19	F	F	F	-18	F	F	A-
Fri, Nov 28	260 SE Louisiana	L	68 - 76	16%	+2	0 - 7		-14	-6	C-	B-	F	-7	C	C-	D
Sat, Nov 29	118 @UNC Wilmington	L	62 - 88	3%	-12	0 - 8		-20	-7	C	F	F	-13	F	B-	F
Wed, Dec 3	207 @Queens	L	74 - 107	7%	-14	0 - 9		-33	-7	F	A+	C	-24	F	F	D-
Sat, Dec 6	213 Georgia Southern	L	84 - 88	17%	-3	0 - 10		-10	+1	B	F	D	-11	F	C	F
Mon, Dec 15	223 Wofford	L	57 - 83	18%	-11	0 - 11		-32	-20	F	F	F	-12	D	F	C
Sun, Dec 21	16 @Tennessee	L	52 - 94	0%	-26	0 - 12		-21	-10	D	D-	C+	-12	F	B	F
Wed, Dec 31	225 Charleston Southern	L	79 - 89	18%	+1	0 - 13	0 - 1	-17	-0	F	B+	D	-16	F	F	C-
Sat, Jan 3	152 @Winthrop	L	77 - 88	5%	+5	0 - 14	0 - 2	-8	+5	B+	F	A+	-14	F	A+	D-
Wed, Jan 7	86 @High Point	L	49 - 104	2%	-38	0 - 15	0 - 3	-45	-28	F	F	F	-10	C	F	F
Wed, Jan 14	234 Radford	L	79 - 88	20%
Sat, Jan 17	289 Presbyterian	L	68 - 74	29%
Wed, Jan 21	279 @Longwood	L	72 - 84	12%
Sat, Jan 24	287 South Carolina Upstate	L	74 - 80	28%
Thu, Jan 29	239 @UNC Asheville	L	68 - 83	8%
Wed, Feb 4	279 Longwood	L	75 - 81	28%
Sat, Feb 7	289 @Presbyterian	L	65 - 77	14%
Thu, Feb 12	152 Winthrop	L	75 - 88	11%
Sat, Feb 14	86 @High Point	L	70 - 96	1%
Thu, Feb 19	234 @Radford	L	76 - 91	8%
Thu, Feb 26	239 UNC Asheville	L	71 - 80	21%
Sat, Feb 28	287 @South Carolina Upstate	L	71 - 83	13%
Totals						2 - 25	2 - 13	-16	-8	D-	F	F	-8	F	F	D

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big South Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0	Total
1st																			1st
2nd																			2nd
3rd								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0							0.0	3rd
4th								0.1	0.0									0.1	4th
5th						0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0									0.4	5th
6th					0.0	0.4	0.5	0.1										1.0	6th
7th			0.0	0.2	1.3	1.7	0.4	0.0										3.7	7th
8th		0.2	1.7	5.0	4.8	1.0	0.0											12.8	8th
9th	15.3	26.8	24.6	12.4	2.7	0.1												82.1	9th

Total	15.3	27.0	26.3	17.7	8.9	3.3	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0								Total

Big South Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6	0.0%																					0.0
9-7	0.0%																					0.0
8-8	0.1%																				0.0	0.1
7-9	0.3%																					0.3
6-10	1.1%	0.5%	0.5%		16.0																0.0	1.1
5-11	3.3%																					3.3
4-12	8.9%																					8.9
3-13	17.7%																					17.7
2-14	26.3%	0.0%	0.0%		16.0																0.0	26.3
1-15	27.0%																					27.0
0-16	15.3%																					15.3

Total	100%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0																	100.0	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	13.0%