Harvard
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.2 #196
Expected Predictive Rating -4.7 #240
Pace 63.9 #320
Improvement +0.6 #148

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #206 B- D D F C
Defense #196 D+ C C B+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #135 1.15 #184 +0.8 #144
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #175 0.81 #111 +0.6 #153
Three Pointers 39% #213 1.12 #53 +1.3 #132
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #106 +2.7 #107
Freethrows 11.7 #358 84% #1 9.8 #327
Second Chance 26.1% #303 1.03 #210 0.27 #284
Turnovers 18.7% #297
Total Offense -1.5 #206

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #99 1.22 #265 -3.2 #283
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #230 0.74 #158 +0.8 #141
Three Pointers 40% #214 1.08 #270 -0.7 #205
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #273 -3.0 #274
Freethrows 14.4 #42 72% #150 10.3 #323
Second Chance 30.0% #149 1.03 #168 0.31 #152
Turnovers 16.6% #183
Total Defense -0.7 #196

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #172 1.0% #265
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.1% #107 4.8% #271
Possession Length 17.9 #233 18.6 #340
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #247 0.15 #117
Improvement +0.1 #174 +0.5 #152

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 7.3% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 14.8
.500 or above 23.5% 41.1% 16.8%
.500 or above in Conference 38.7% 58.9% 31.0%
Conference Champion 2.2% 5.0% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 20.8% 10.3% 24.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round4.3% 7.3% 3.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Columbia (Away) - 27.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 64 - 10
Quad 48 - 512 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 344 New Hampshire W 86 - 75 88%  -6  1 - 0 -4 +8 A+ F B -12 F C+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 233 Northeastern L 60 - 77 68%  -9  1 - 1 -24 -15 F F F -9 C D+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 330 @Army W 75 - 52 70%  +9  2 - 1 +15 +6 A+ F F +12 B+ C A+
 Sun, Nov 16 140 @Marist W 56 - 54 27%  +1  3 - 1 +6 -4 D+ D+ F +10 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 105 @Penn St. L 80 - 84 18%  -2  3 - 2 +3 +18 A+ A+ C- -14 D- D+ F
 Sat, Nov 22 258 Boston University L 74 - 75 63%  +2  3 - 3 -7 +1 B+ C F -8 F C A+
 Wed, Nov 26 151 @Boston College L 60 - 73 30%  -9  3 - 4 -10 -3 C D+ D+ -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 317 Bryant W 56 - 53 83%  +2  4 - 4 -9 -9 C- F F +0 A+ F F
 Wed, Dec 3 167 @Massachusetts L 71 - 78 33%  -10  4 - 5 -5 -2 C- C- C- -2 F A+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 150 @Furman L 69 - 79 29%  -7  4 - 6 -7 -1 B F C -6 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 326 Holy Cross W 81 - 53 85%  +16  5 - 6 +15 +14 B+ A+ F +5 A+ D+ F
 Tue, Dec 23 21 @St. John's L 59 - 85 3%  -9  5 - 7 -7 -2 A F D+ -5 D- C+ A-
 Sun, Dec 28 205 @Colgate W 78 - 69 39%  +2  6 - 7 +10 +6 A+ F C +4 A- C- B-
 Mon, Jan 5 230 Dartmouth L 68 - 76 67%  -3  6 - 8 0 - 1 -15 -1 F A+ C- -14 F F F
 Sat, Jan 10 139 @Columbia L 69 - 75 28% 
 Sat, Jan 17 242 Princeton W 70 - 65 69% 
 Mon, Jan 19 216 Penn W 76 - 72 64% 
 Sat, Jan 24 168 Cornell W 83 - 81 57% 
 Fri, Jan 30 247 @Brown L 64 - 65 48% 
 Sat, Jan 31 80 @Yale L 67 - 80 13% 
 Sat, Feb 7 230 @Dartmouth L 73 - 74 44% 
 Fri, Feb 13 247 Brown W 68 - 62 69% 
 Sat, Feb 14 80 Yale L 70 - 77 28% 
 Sat, Feb 21 168 @Cornell L 80 - 84 35% 
 Fri, Feb 27 242 @Princeton L 67 - 68 47% 
 Sat, Feb 28 216 @Penn L 73 - 75 42% 
 Sat, Mar 7 139 Columbia L 72 - 73 48% 
Totals 12 - 15 6 - 8 -2 -1 B- D D -1 D+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.4 3.0 4.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.5 5.2 6.7 2.1 0.1 14.6 3rd
4th 0.3 5.8 8.0 2.1 0.1 16.3 4th
5th 0.2 4.4 9.4 2.3 0.1 16.5 5th
6th 0.2 3.2 8.7 3.1 0.1 15.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.8 7.2 3.3 0.2 13.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.7 2.5 0.1 11.6 8th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.6 7.6 13.1 16.8 19.1 16.0 11.9 6.6 2.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 98.1% 0.3    0.2 0.1
11-3 61.0% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0
10-4 30.1% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
9-5 6.2% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.3% 27.8% 27.8% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
11-3 0.9% 23.5% 23.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
10-4 2.9% 17.7% 17.7% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.4
9-5 6.6% 15.4% 15.4% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 5.6
8-6 11.9% 13.0% 13.0% 14.9 0.3 1.2 0.1 10.4
7-7 16.0% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.4 0.4 15.2
6-8 19.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 19.0
5-9 16.8% 16.8
4-10 13.1% 13.1
3-11 7.6% 7.6
2-12 3.6% 3.6
1-13 0.9% 0.9
0-14 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 14.7 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%