Harvard
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#243
Expected Predictive Rating-8.4#304
Pace68.5#193
Improvement+0.6#151

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#282
First Shot+0.2#168
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#353
Layup/Dunks-2.3#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#92
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#101
Freethrows-1.4#267
Improvement-0.2#191

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#190
First Shot-2.8#268
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#44
Layups/Dunks-4.9#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#57
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#196
Freethrows+0.6#147
Improvement+0.8#131
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.1% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 3.7% 6.9% 1.6%
.500 or above in Conference 27.3% 32.4% 23.8%
Conference Champion 1.9% 2.6% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 24.6% 20.1% 27.6%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.2%
First Round1.9% 2.7% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Away) - 39.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 46 - 69 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 231   Marist W 79-66 58%     1 - 0 +6.3 +9.4 -2.2
  Nov 08, 2024 319   @ Navy L 80-85 55%     1 - 1 -10.9 +0.1 -10.8
  Nov 10, 2024 232   @ American L 55-67 35%     1 - 2 -12.7 -13.1 -0.8
  Nov 13, 2024 170   @ Northeastern L 56-78 25%     1 - 3 -19.5 -14.1 -5.2
  Nov 17, 2024 77   @ Colorado L 66-88 9%     1 - 4 -11.5 +0.3 -12.0
  Nov 22, 2024 241   Colgate W 78-67 61%     2 - 4 +3.6 +5.2 -1.1
  Nov 27, 2024 203   Massachusetts L 54-62 51%     2 - 5 -12.9 -16.6 +3.2
  Nov 30, 2024 14   @ St. John's L 64-77 3%     2 - 6 +5.7 +1.0 +4.5
  Dec 04, 2024 313   @ Holy Cross L 67-68 53%     2 - 7 -6.5 -7.0 +0.4
  Dec 08, 2024 355   @ New Hampshire W 72-62 70%     3 - 7 +0.1 -2.6 +2.9
  Dec 21, 2024 115   Furman L 63-77 33%     3 - 8 -14.0 -2.6 -12.9
  Dec 29, 2024 247   @ Iona L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 110   Princeton L 70-75 32%    
  Jan 18, 2025 173   @ Brown L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 20, 2025 292   Penn W 72-67 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 99   @ Yale L 65-78 12%    
  Jan 31, 2025 179   @ Columbia L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 01, 2025 131   @ Cornell L 73-82 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 280   @ Dartmouth L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 14, 2025 131   Cornell L 76-79 38%    
  Feb 15, 2025 179   Columbia L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 21, 2025 110   @ Princeton L 67-78 16%    
  Feb 22, 2025 292   @ Penn L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 28, 2025 173   Brown L 68-69 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 99   Yale L 68-75 28%    
  Mar 08, 2025 280   Dartmouth W 74-69 67%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 5 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 3.9 1.7 0.2 7.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.9 6.3 2.6 0.2 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.2 8.9 3.8 0.2 17.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 6.0 10.1 4.2 0.3 21.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 6.5 8.4 3.3 0.2 20.1 7th
8th 0.5 2.6 5.3 4.8 1.5 0.1 14.7 8th
Total 0.5 2.7 6.9 12.2 16.3 17.9 16.2 12.3 7.8 4.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 94.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-3 77.7% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
10-4 40.0% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
9-5 8.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.1% 21.7% 21.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-3 0.7% 20.3% 20.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
10-4 1.9% 11.8% 11.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.7
9-5 4.3% 12.9% 12.9% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 3.8
8-6 7.8% 9.3% 9.3% 15.9 0.1 0.7 7.1
7-7 12.3% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5 11.9
6-8 16.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 16.1
5-9 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.9
4-10 16.3% 16.3
3-11 12.2% 12.2
2-12 6.9% 6.9
1-13 2.7% 2.7
0-14 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.5 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%