Harvard
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.4 #165
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 #187
Pace 61.1 #351
Improvement +4.7 #21

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #165 B- D+ D+ C- C+
Defense #170 C C C B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #118 1.16 #173 +1.4 #126
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #225 0.79 #119 -0.7 #216
Three Pointers 41% #187 1.14 #30 +2.6 #93
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #78 +3.3 #78
Freethrows 0.24 #341 82% #2 0.20 #257
Second Chance 26.2% #301 0.98 #250 0.26 #297
Turnovers 18.3% #286
Total Offense -0.1 #165

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #72 1.15 #169 -2.3 #262
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #269 0.79 #244 +0.7 #131
Three Pointers 40% #231 1.01 #174 +0.8 #142
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #204 -0.8 #207
Freethrows 0.27 #73 72% #170 0.19 #84
Second Chance 30.6% #172 1.01 #154 0.31 #163
Turnovers 16.2% #211
Total Defense -0.3 #170

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #119 1.3% #296
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.4% #84 0.1% #190
Possession Length 18.4 #296 18.6 #342
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #285 0.15 #113
Improvement +3.3 #36 +1.4 #103

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.8% 15.0% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 79.0% 92.0% 66.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.9% 98.9% 88.9%
Conference Champion 21.3% 31.0% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.8% 15.0% 10.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Away) - 50.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 3
Quad 35 - 67 - 9
Quad 49 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 320 New Hampshire W 86 - 75 87% -6  1 - 0 -2 +9 A+ F B -10 F C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 256 Northeastern L 60 - 77 78% -9  1 - 1 -25 -17 F F+ F -9 C D+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 336 @Army W 75 - 52 77% +9  2 - 1 +15 +4 B+ F F +13 B+ C A+
 Sun, Nov 16 161 @Marist W 56 - 54 38% +1  3 - 1 +5 -4 C- D+ F +9 B- A A
 Wed, Nov 19 112 @Penn St. L 80 - 84 26% -2  3 - 2 +2 +15 A A+ D+ -13 D D+ D-
 Sat, Nov 22 290 Boston University L 74 - 75 75% +2  3 - 3 -8 +1 B C- F -9 F C- A
 Wed, Nov 26 127 @Boston College L 60 - 73 30% -9  3 - 4 -8 -2 C C- C -7 F A+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 347 Bryant W 56 - 53 90% +2  4 - 4 -12 -11 D+ F F+ +0 A- D D
 Wed, Dec 3 173 @Massachusetts L 71 - 78 41% -10  4 - 5 -5 -3 D+ D+ C- -2 F A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 164 @Furman L 69 - 79 38% -7  4 - 6 -7 -1 C+ F B- -7 F F A-
 Sat, Dec 20 323 Holy Cross W 81 - 53 88% +16  5 - 6 +15 +14 A- A+ F+ +5 A+ D+ F
 Tue, Dec 23 19 @St. John's L 59 - 85 4% -10  5 - 7 -5 -2 B F C- -4 D C B+
 Sun, Dec 28 222 @Colgate W 78 - 69 50% +2  6 - 7 +9 +5 A+ F C +4 B C C+
 Mon, Jan 5 229 Dartmouth L 68 - 76 73% -3  6 - 8 0 - 1 -15 -2 F A+ C -14 F F D
 Sat, Jan 10 183 @Columbia W 79 - 54 43% +13  7 - 8 1 - 1 +26 +19 A+ C+ D +12 A+ B- B
 Sat, Jan 17 213 Princeton W 87 - 80 OT 71% -7  8 - 8 2 - 1 +1 +15 B+ D- A+ -14 C+ F F
 Mon, Jan 19 180 Penn W 64 - 63 65% +1  9 - 8 3 - 1 -3 -4 C D- F+ +0 C+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 176 Cornell L 79 - 86 64% +2  9 - 9 3 - 2 -11 +3 D B+ C+ -14 C- D C-
 Fri, Jan 30 280 @Brown W 69 - 59 63% +5  10 - 9 4 - 2 +6 +9 A+ F F -2 B- F F+
 Sat, Jan 31 80 @Yale W 67 - 65 16% +3  11 - 9 5 - 2 +12 +9 B+ F B- +3 B A+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 229 @Dartmouth W 72 - 71 50%
 Fri, Feb 13 280 Brown W 68 - 59 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 80 Yale L 69 - 74 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 176 @Cornell L 80 - 82 42%
 Fri, Feb 27 213 @Princeton L 66 - 67 48%
 Sat, Feb 28 180 @Penn L 70 - 72 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 183 Columbia W 73 - 69 65%
Totals 15 - 12 9 - 5 +0 +0 B- D+ D+ +0 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.1 9.4 6.5 1.2 21.3 1st
2nd 0.5 12.2 20.6 9.0 0.7 42.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.1 11.2 1.8 0.0 17.1 3rd
4th 0.4 7.9 1.7 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 2.2 2.8 0.1 5.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 0.2 2.7 6th
7th 0.5 0.5 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.8 5.3 15.4 25.2 26.5 18.4 7.2 1.2 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 1.2    1.2
11-3 90.2% 6.5    4.1 2.3
10-4 51.2% 9.4    3.4 5.6 0.4
9-5 15.3% 4.1    0.2 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.0
8-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 21.3% 21.3 9.1 9.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 1.2% 22.2% 22.2% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0
11-3 7.2% 24.0% 24.0% 13.3 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 5.4
10-4 18.4% 18.0% 18.0% 13.8 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.4 15.1
9-5 26.5% 15.4% 15.4% 14.2 0.5 2.1 1.4 0.1 22.4
8-6 25.2% 11.4% 11.4% 14.8 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.1 22.4
7-7 15.4% 3.3% 3.3% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 14.9
6-8 5.3% 5.3
5-9 0.8% 0.8
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 14.1 87.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.7 3.6 30.9 58.2 7.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 0.8%