High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#132
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#131
Pace66.8#235
Improvement-0.1#193

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#47
First Shot+4.7#63
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#108
Layup/Dunks-0.1#185
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#104
Freethrows+3.3#22
Improvement+1.5#90

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#299
First Shot-2.3#251
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#316
Layups/Dunks-1.6#240
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#260
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#207
Freethrows+0.3#160
Improvement-1.6#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.6% 33.4% 27.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 97.8% 89.9%
Conference Champion 45.3% 52.4% 29.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round31.6% 33.4% 27.3%
Second Round2.4% 2.6% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Away) - 69.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 36 - 56 - 5
Quad 416 - 323 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 93-51 97%     1 - 0 +22.4 +13.7 +8.1
  Nov 09, 2024 296   Jackson St. W 80-71 87%     2 - 0 -1.5 +4.8 -6.4
  Nov 12, 2024 309   NC Central W 76-60 89%     3 - 0 +4.6 +8.3 -1.2
  Nov 15, 2024 107   UAB W 68-65 54%     4 - 0 +3.7 -5.2 +9.1
  Nov 18, 2024 258   American W 80-73 84%     5 - 0 -1.6 +18.0 -18.2
  Nov 24, 2024 217   Missouri St. L 61-71 68%     5 - 1 -13.1 -9.0 -4.6
  Nov 25, 2024 311   Old Dominion W 73-67 83%     6 - 1 -2.5 +5.2 -6.9
  Nov 26, 2024 248   Hampton W 76-73 74%     7 - 1 -1.8 +15.0 -16.3
  Dec 03, 2024 139   @ UNC Greensboro L 68-72 40%     7 - 2 +0.4 +10.2 -10.5
  Dec 06, 2024 80   North Texas W 76-71 42%     8 - 2 +8.9 +7.8 +1.1
  Dec 14, 2024 177   Appalachian St. W 65-59 60%     9 - 2 +5.2 -6.7 +11.9
  Dec 21, 2024 251   @ Southern Illinois W 94-81 64%     10 - 2 +11.1 +19.2 -8.5
  Dec 29, 2024 160   Norfolk St. L 74-77 69%     10 - 3 -6.2 +7.4 -13.9
  Jan 02, 2025 207   Radford W 76-58 75%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +12.7 +13.3 +2.7
  Jan 04, 2025 186   @ UNC Asheville L 99-103 49%     11 - 4 1 - 1 -1.9 +14.7 -16.2
  Jan 08, 2025 278   @ Charleston Southern W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 241   Gardner-Webb W 82-73 81%    
  Jan 16, 2025 196   @ Longwood W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 246   Presbyterian W 78-68 82%    
  Jan 22, 2025 345   @ South Carolina Upstate W 86-75 84%    
  Jan 25, 2025 197   Winthrop W 85-78 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 246   @ Presbyterian W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 05, 2025 207   @ Radford W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 186   UNC Asheville W 82-76 70%    
  Feb 12, 2025 196   Longwood W 80-73 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 197   @ Winthrop W 82-81 53%    
  Feb 19, 2025 278   Charleston Southern W 83-71 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 241   @ Gardner-Webb W 79-76 62%    
  Feb 26, 2025 345   South Carolina Upstate W 89-72 94%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.6 8.3 13.8 12.9 6.8 1.8 45.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 7.5 9.9 4.5 1.0 0.1 24.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.8 6.4 1.8 0.1 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 4.5 1.1 0.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.0 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.9 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.1 6.3 11.5 16.6 19.9 18.5 13.9 6.9 1.8 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
14-2 98.9% 6.8    6.5 0.3
13-3 93.0% 12.9    10.9 1.9 0.0
12-4 74.9% 13.8    8.5 4.8 0.5 0.0
11-5 41.5% 8.3    2.5 3.9 1.7 0.2 0.0
10-6 9.8% 1.6    0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 45.3% 45.3 30.3 11.4 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 1.8% 54.5% 54.5% 11.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.8
14-2 6.9% 47.7% 47.7% 12.8 0.0 1.1 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.6
13-3 13.9% 44.2% 44.2% 13.2 0.0 0.8 3.3 1.9 0.1 7.7
12-4 18.5% 36.1% 36.1% 13.6 0.3 2.5 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.8
11-5 19.9% 30.8% 30.8% 14.0 0.1 1.3 3.4 1.3 0.0 13.8
10-6 16.6% 25.5% 25.5% 14.3 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.6 0.1 12.4
9-7 11.5% 21.6% 21.6% 14.6 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.1 9.0
8-8 6.3% 17.5% 17.5% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 5.2
7-9 3.1% 13.3% 13.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.7
6-10 1.1% 10.9% 10.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0
5-11 0.4% 7.1% 7.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3
4-12 0.1% 11.8% 11.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 31.6% 31.6% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.3 2.9 9.4 12.6 5.8 0.6 68.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 11.8 0.2 25.4 64.1 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%