High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.9 #86
Expected Predictive Rating +2.9 #125
Pace 72.5 #88
Improvement +0.3 #166

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #49 B B B+ A B+
Defense #158 C- C A- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #66 1.26 #75 +5.0 #40
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #313 0.78 #134 -2.6 #305
Three Pointers 43% #147 1.04 #148 +1.6 #126
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #70 +3.9 #80
Freethrows 21.1 #22 75% #101 15.9 #22
Second Chance 31.2% #170 1.24 #16 0.39 #64
Turnovers 14.1% #42
Total Offense +6.8 #49

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #176 1.21 #254 -1.3 #230
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #289 0.81 #270 +0.8 #139
Three Pointers 44% #92 0.98 #146 -0.9 #213
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #224 -1.4 #226
Freethrows 16.8 #165 74% #256 12.5 #175
Second Chance 31.6% #218 1.06 #213 0.34 #218
Turnovers 20.2% #28
Total Defense +0.1 #158

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #43 1.0% #266
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.8% #91 1.7% #213
Possession Length 15.8 #57 17.9 #284
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #16 0.17 #171
Improvement -0.7 #236 +1.0 #115

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.5% 64.8% 59.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 92.0% 94.8% 83.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round63.5% 64.8% 59.1%
Second Round9.8% 10.7% 7.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.3% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Away) - 76.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 35 - 35 - 3
Quad 421 - 225 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 150 Furman W 97 - 71 73%  +17  1 - 0 +26 +20 A+ C A+ +5 C C A+
 Tue, Nov 11 328 Jacksonville W 85 - 64 96%  +11  2 - 0 +8 +8 F C A+ -0 B C- B
 Fri, Nov 14 113 @UAB L 74 - 91 51%  -3  2 - 1 -10 -3 D C- F -5 F A+ B-
 Mon, Nov 17 331 Canisius W 93 - 50 96%  +25  3 - 1 +29 +20 A+ A A +11 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 184 Illinois-Chicago W 90 - 80 79%  +6  4 - 1 +8 +13 A- C- A- -5 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 165 Incarnate Word W 91 - 80 76%  +5  5 - 1 +10 +22 B+ A+ A+ -11 C+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 29 283 Western Carolina W 93 - 73 93%  +7  6 - 1 +10 +10 A+ F F -1 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 130 Southern Illinois L 84 - 86 78%  +3  6 - 2 -3 +8 C C+ B+ -11 C F C
 Fri, Dec 5 351 NJIT W 89 - 72 97%  +12  7 - 2 +1 +7 F A+ A- -6 F C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 224 Appalachian St. L 78 - 86 OT 83%  -2  7 - 3 -11 -0 D+ F A -10 F A+ C-
 Fri, Dec 19 217 La Salle W 84 - 72 88%  +8  8 - 3 +6 +14 A+ B A+ -7 C- B C-
 Mon, Dec 22 317 Bryant W 93 - 47 95%  +27  9 - 3 +34 +25 A+ A+ F +13 B+ D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 239 @UNC Asheville W 87 - 69 78%  +11  10 - 3 1 - 0 +17 +17 A+ A C- +0 B+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 279 Longwood W 80 - 67 93%  +7  11 - 3 2 - 0 +3 +7 C B+ C+ -3 F D- A
 Wed, Jan 7 363 Gardner-Webb W 104 - 49 98%  +38  12 - 3 3 - 0 +36 +9 D B+ A +20 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 225 @Charleston Southern W 86 - 79 76% 
 Wed, Jan 14 152 @Winthrop W 86 - 82 64% 
 Sat, Jan 17 287 South Carolina Upstate W 88 - 71 94% 
 Sat, Jan 24 234 @Radford W 89 - 81 77% 
 Thu, Jan 29 289 Presbyterian W 82 - 65 95% 
 Sat, Jan 31 279 @Longwood W 86 - 75 84% 
 Wed, Feb 4 225 Charleston Southern W 89 - 76 89% 
 Sat, Feb 7 234 Radford W 92 - 78 90% 
 Thu, Feb 12 287 @South Carolina Upstate W 85 - 74 84% 
 Sat, Feb 14 363 Gardner-Webb W 96 - 70 99% 
 Thu, Feb 19 239 UNC Asheville W 84 - 70 90% 
 Sat, Feb 21 152 Winthrop W 89 - 79 82% 
 Thu, Feb 26 289 @Presbyterian W 79 - 68 84% 
Totals 23 - 5 14 - 2 +7 +7 B B B+ +0 C- C A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 6.0 15.4 25.8 28.2 15.5 92.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.6 1.3 0.1 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.5 8.7 16.7 25.9 28.2 15.5 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 15.5    15.5
15-1 100.0% 28.2    28.2 0.0
14-2 99.5% 25.8    24.6 1.2
13-3 92.1% 15.4    12.4 2.9 0.1
12-4 69.0% 6.0    3.2 2.6 0.2
11-5 32.3% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
10-6 5.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 92.0% 92.0 84.1 7.2 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 15.5% 74.6% 74.6% 11.6 0.0 0.1 5.0 6.0 0.5 0.0 3.9
15-1 28.2% 68.5% 68.5% 12.5 0.7 9.8 8.1 0.8 8.9
14-2 25.9% 64.1% 64.1% 12.9 0.1 4.0 9.6 2.8 0.1 9.3
13-3 16.7% 56.3% 56.3% 13.3 0.0 1.1 5.0 3.0 0.2 7.3
12-4 8.7% 51.6% 51.6% 13.5 0.2 1.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.2
11-5 3.5% 44.5% 44.5% 13.8 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9
10-6 1.1% 36.2% 36.2% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.7
9-7 0.3% 31.3% 31.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
8-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 63.5% 63.5% 0.0% 12.7 36.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.6% 100.0% 11.6 0.1 0.6 43.4 51.4 4.4 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%