High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.2 #98
Expected Predictive Rating +4.2 #99
Pace 71.6 #105
Improvement -3.8 #330

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #59 B- B- A- B B
Defense #194 C- D+ B+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #75 1.26 #70 +4.5 #42
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #310 0.71 #250 -2.9 #316
Three Pointers 43% #139 1.01 #195 +1.0 #141
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #100 +2.5 #104
Freethrows 0.35 #45 74% #107 0.26 #38
Second Chance 30.5% #187 1.19 #24 0.36 #79
Turnovers 13.2% #19
Total Offense +5.9 #59

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #171 1.20 #240 -1.2 #215
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #285 0.77 #210 +1.1 #109
Three Pointers 44% #99 1.03 #215 -1.7 #263
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #239 -1.9 #239
Freethrows 0.30 #183 72% #175 0.22 #180
Second Chance 31.8% #235 1.10 #285 0.35 #274
Turnovers 20.4% #24
Total Defense -0.7 #194

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #49 0.9% #254
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.2% #122 2.6% #228
Possession Length 15.9 #51 17.8 #266
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #28 0.16 #133
Improvement -3.0 #330 -0.8 #233

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.3% 51.1% 44.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.6 13.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 78.5% 80.7% 60.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round50.3% 51.1% 44.3%
Second Round5.3% 5.4% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Home) - 88.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 35 - 35 - 4
Quad 420 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 164 Furman W 97 - 71 70% +17  1 - 0 +26 +20 A+ C A+ +5 C C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 295 Jacksonville W 85 - 64 92% +11  2 - 0 +10 +10 F+ C A+ +1 B C B
 Fri, Nov 14 120 @UAB L 74 - 91 47% -3  2 - 1 -11 -4 D D+ D -6 F+ A B-
 Mon, Nov 17 345 Canisius W 93 - 50 96% +25  3 - 1 +28 +20 A+ A- A+ +11 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 135 Illinois-Chicago W 90 - 80 64% +6  4 - 1 +12 +15 B+ C B+ -4 D+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 248 Incarnate Word W 91 - 80 83% +5  5 - 1 +6 +21 B- A+ A -14 C+ F C
 Sat, Nov 29 277 Western Carolina W 93 - 73 91% +7  6 - 1 +11 +8 A+ F+ D- +2 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 137 Southern Illinois L 84 - 86 74% +3  6 - 2 -4 +9 B- C+ A- -13 C F C-
 Fri, Dec 5 324 NJIT W 89 - 72 95% +12  7 - 2 +4 +7 D A B+ -4 F C A+
 Sun, Dec 14 172 Appalachian St. L 78 - 86 OT 72% -2  7 - 3 -9 +1 C- F A- -10 F B+ C-
 Fri, Dec 19 214 La Salle W 84 - 72 85% +8  8 - 3 +6 +14 A- B+ A -8 C- C+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 347 Bryant W 93 - 47 96% +27  9 - 3 +31 +23 A+ A+ F +13 B- C A+
 Wed, Dec 31 209 @UNC Asheville W 87 - 69 69% +11  10 - 3 1 - 0 +18 +19 A+ A C +0 B D- F
 Sat, Jan 3 264 Longwood W 80 - 67 90% +7  11 - 3 2 - 0 +4 +8 C A- B+ -4 D- D B
 Wed, Jan 7 363 Gardner-Webb W 104 - 49 98% +38  12 - 3 3 - 0 +34 +8 D+ B+ B+ +19 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 246 @Charleston Southern W 84 - 82 OT 75% -2  13 - 3 4 - 0 +0 +0 C- D+ C+ -0 C C+ D-
 Wed, Jan 14 123 @Winthrop L 75 - 92 49% -15  13 - 4 4 - 1 -12 +3 C- F B+ -14 F+ F D
 Sat, Jan 17 302 South Carolina Upstate W 89 - 69 93% +7  14 - 4 5 - 1 +9 +16 C A+ A+ -7 B- F A-
 Fri, Jan 23 234 @Radford W 93 - 83 73% +1  15 - 4 6 - 1 +9 +13 A- D- A+ -5 F C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 29 262 Presbyterian W 84 - 81 90% +2  16 - 4 7 - 1 -6 +9 F+ B+ A+ -14 F F B
 Sat, Jan 31 264 @Longwood W 71 - 59 78% +6  17 - 4 8 - 1 +9 +5 D D+ A+ +5 B- C A+
 Wed, Feb 4 246 Charleston Southern W 89 - 76 89%
 Sat, Feb 7 234 Radford W 91 - 79 88%
 Thu, Feb 12 302 @South Carolina Upstate W 82 - 72 83%
 Sat, Feb 14 363 Gardner-Webb W 94 - 68 99%
 Thu, Feb 19 209 UNC Asheville W 82 - 71 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 123 Winthrop W 85 - 79 70%
 Thu, Feb 26 262 @Presbyterian W 79 - 71 77%
Totals 23 - 5 14 - 2 +5 +6 B- B- A- -1 C- D+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 10.5 35.0 31.6 78.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 5.7 10.4 3.9 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.3 7.0 20.9 38.9 31.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 31.6    31.6
14-2 89.9% 35.0    23.2 11.9
13-3 50.4% 10.5    4.2 6.3 0.1
12-4 17.5% 1.2    0.2 0.9 0.1
11-5 1.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total 78.5% 78.5 59.2 19.1 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 31.6% 57.5% 57.5% 12.2 1.5 12.3 4.3 0.1 13.5
14-2 38.9% 50.2% 50.2% 12.8 0.1 6.5 11.1 1.8 19.4
13-3 20.9% 44.2% 44.2% 13.1 0.0 1.5 5.6 2.0 0.0 11.7
12-4 7.0% 39.4% 39.4% 13.3 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.0 4.2
11-5 1.3% 40.2% 40.2% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.8
10-6 0.2% 26.3% 26.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-7 0.0% 0.0
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 50.3% 50.3% 0.0% 12.6 49.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 18.2% 100.0% 12.2 8.2 67.5 23.9 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.2%