Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.7 109
Results Rating +1.2 142
Pace 66.7 233
Improvement +9.9 2

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 162 C- B C- C+ C
Defense B- 74 B- C- A- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 96 D+ 55% 263 +0.4 163
2 Pt. Jumpers 46% 84 C 38% 175 +1.0 124
Three Pointers 35% 300 C- 33% 233 -3.6 303
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 200 C- -2.0 251
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 244
Second Chance B+ 36.2% 35 C 1.04 166 B 0.38 58
Turnovers C- 18.0% 263
Freethrows C+ 0.31 152 C 72% 183 C+ 0.23 149
Total Offense C +0.0 162

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 47 D+ 12.9% 294
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 98 C- 5.7% 233
Three Pointers C 84% 189 C 1.0% 209
Total B- 59% 99 D 7.0% 320

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 296 B- 55% 101 -3.3 73
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 272 A- 32% 17 -2.1 29
Three Pointers 48% 23 B- 32% 98 +2.2 287
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 184 B -3.3 57
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 74
Second Chance D- 34.7% 332 B- 0.97 95 C- 0.34 252
Turnovers A- 20.5% 27
Freethrows C 0.30 179 D 75% 311 C 0.23 216
Total Defense B- +3.7 74

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 66% 365 B 14.6% 55
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 42% 352 C 5.2% 147
Three Pointers F 93% 363 C 0.9% 166
Total F 73% 363 C+ 6.4% 117

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 225 17.5 218
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 111 0.18 229
Improvement +3.1 #50 +6.8 #3

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 126 110 98
Results Rating Rank 162 136 97
Conference Record 11 - 9 12 - 8 13 - 7
Conference Finish 5 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 12% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.1
.500 or above 91% 100% 77%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round10% 12% 8%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Bradley (Home) - 62.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 24 - 44 - 6
Quad 34 - 79 - 13
Quad 48 - 116 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 255 Detroit Mercy W 91 - 71 86% +6  60% 1 - 0 B+ +12 C- -0 C- A F A +10 A B+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 158 @Oregon St. L 73 - 76 53% -3  28% 1 - 1 C -0 C +0 B D- F C -1 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 347 @Chicago St. W 67 - 63 89% -2  33% 2 - 1 D+ -6 D- -6 F A+ D- C+ +1 D C- B-
 Thu, Nov 20 90 High Point L 80 - 90 41% -6  2% 2 - 2 C- -4 C+ +2 C- A+ D- D -5 D+ C+ B
 Sat, Nov 22 339 Southern Indiana W 84 - 73 92% +11  99% 3 - 2 C -1 C +2 B- D D- C- -3 F B- B-
 Wed, Nov 26 179 @Robert Morris L 74 - 88 57% -13  0% 3 - 3 D- -12 C +1 D- A D+ F -14 D+ F B
 Wed, Dec 3 329 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62 - 63 94% -5  8% 3 - 4 F+ -15 F -23 F D- F A- +8 C+ D- B
 Sun, Dec 7 85 @Yale L 66 - 80 28% -4  33% 3 - 5 C- -4 D -4 F C- B C -1 A+ F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 67 @Belmont L 84 - 87 23% +3  60% 3 - 6 0 - 1 B +8 A+ +20 A- B+ A+ F -12 F D A-
 Wed, Dec 17 94 Northern Iowa L 54 - 60 53% -2  36% 3 - 7 0 - 2 C- -3 F+ -8 F B+ A- B +4 D+ C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 174 @Charlotte L 76 - 88 OT 56% +2  63% 3 - 8 D -10 C- -2 C+ F+ D- D- -7 C+ B C-
 Thu, Jan 1 123 Murray St. L 77 - 81 65% +1  48% 3 - 9 0 - 3 C- -4 D -5 D- B F C+ +1 A+ F B+
 Sun, Jan 4 151 @Valparaiso L 59 - 66 51% +1  49% 3 - 10 0 - 4 C- -4 D- -6 D B F C+ +2 B B- B
 Wed, Jan 7 125 Southern Illinois W 70 - 57 65% +8  88% 4 - 10 1 - 4 B+ +13 B- +5 F+ A+ A A +8 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 103 @Illinois St. W 63 - 59 OT 35% +1  52% 5 - 10 2 - 4 B+ +12 D- -6 F A+ F A+ +18 A+ C- C+
 Tue, Jan 13 94 @Northern Iowa W 69 - 61 31% +0  38% 6 - 10 3 - 4 A- +17 A- +10 A- B- A+ A- +8 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 193 Drake W 74 - 67 80% +7  95% 7 - 10 4 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 F A C+ B +3 B B+ C+
 Tue, Jan 20 295 Evansville W 76 - 49 91% +13  86% 8 - 10 5 - 4 A- +16 C -0 C B A- A+ +17 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 112 @Bradley W 85 - 70 40% +8  76% 9 - 10 6 - 4 A +21 A+ +19 A+ C+ A- B +4 C C+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 213 Indiana St. W 76 - 74 82% +9  94% 10 - 10 7 - 4 C- -4 C +0 B D D+ D+ -4 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 125 @Southern Illinois W 68 - 66 43% -6  26% 11 - 10 8 - 4 B- +8 B- +5 F+ A+ F B- +3 C A+ D+
 Tue, Feb 3 123 @Murray St. L 74 - 81 42% -8  0% 11 - 11 8 - 5 C -1 D- -7 F+ B- C B+ +6 A- F A
 Fri, Feb 6 67 Belmont L 62 - 68 43% -9  0% 11 - 12 8 - 6 C -1 D- -7 C F C+ B+ +6 C A A+
 Thu, Feb 12 193 @Drake W 80 - 70 60% +4  76% 12 - 12 9 - 6 B +11 B+ +9 C- C- A- B- +2 C C- A-
 Sun, Feb 15 103 Illinois St. W 83 - 56 58% +13  79% 13 - 12 10 - 6 A+ +29 B +7 A A+ C A+ +21 A+ A A+
 Wed, Feb 18 295 @Evansville W 84 - 46 79% +16  97% 14 - 12 11 - 6 A+ +33 A+ +15 A+ B- F A+ +22 A+ C+ B
 Sat, Feb 21 151 Valparaiso L 67 - 71 73% -6  11% 14 - 13 11 - 7 D+ -7 D+ -3 D A D+ D+ -4 C+ C C-
 Tue, Feb 24 112 Bradley W 73 - 70 63%
 Sun, Mar 1 213 @Indiana St. W 74 - 70 64%
Totals 15 - 14 12 - 8 +4 C +0 D- C- C B- +4 C- C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C C- C- 42% 46% 35% C C- B+ C B C- C+ C C+ B- B- A- B- B 35% 18% 48% C B- D- B- C- A- C D C
1.09 55% 38% 33% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.0 .38 18% .31 72% .23 1.03 55% 32% 32% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.0 .34 20% .30 75% .24
Nov
3		 Detroit Mercy C- F D A+ C 35% 18% 47% D+ C- C A+ A F A+ A+ A+ A C C- A+ A+ 15% 25% 59% C- A F A+ B+ B+ D C+ D+
1.15 44% 33% 42% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.5 .50 20% .57 83% .47 0.90 56% 40% 23% -10 -2 0.78 39% 0.6 .22 19% .31 75% .23
Nov
7		 Oregon St. C B- A+ C- B 31% 10% 58% C+ B C- F D- F B+ A+ A+ C D- F D+ F 27% 20% 54% B D- F A- F A+ F D F
1.06 60% 60% 32% +1 +1 1.06 30% 0.8 .24 20% .38 86% .33 1.10 64% 50% 36% +6 -1 1.12 54% 1.1 .57 30% .52 80% .42
Nov
15		 Chicago St. D- C F F F 53% 10% 38% B+ F A- A+ A+ D- A+ C- A+ C+ F C+ B D- 33% 30% 37% D+ D F+ B C- B- D C D
1.06 62% 25% 13% -11 +2 0.85 43% 1.4 .60 22% .57 75% .42 0.99 67% 36% 29% 0 -2 0.98 34% 0.8 .29 17% .31 75% .23
Nov
20		 High Point C+ A+ C- F C 33% 23% 44% D- C- A+ B- A+ D- A+ C- A+ D C+ A+ F D+ 39% 11% 50% C D+ D+ A- C+ B F D- F
1.10 81% 36% 24% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .55 25% .44 71% .31 1.23 59% 20% 41% +3 +1 1.11 34% 1.0 .34 16% .61 81% .49
Nov
22		 Southern Indiana C C A+ C- C+ 60% 13% 27% A- B- C+ F D D- A+ A+ A+ C- F F A+ F+ 38% 9% 53% F F F+ A+ B- B- D+ A+ A
1.14 59% 50% 33% +2 +2 1.11 35% 0.7 .26 19% .55 85% .47 0.99 64% 80% 23% -3 +2 0.98 35% 0.6 .21 19% .34 40% .13
Nov
26		 Robert Morris C F A+ B+ F 60% 10% 31% A D- A+ D+ A D+ A+ F A- F D A+ D- C- 43% 10% 47% F D+ F F F B D- F F
1.09 40% 50% 38% -8 +3 0.93 47% 0.9 .42 18% .59 58% .34 1.30 62% 0% 39% +1 +2 1.08 48% 1.4 .70 21% .30 81% .24
Dec
3		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F F D F F 61% 12% 27% A F B- F D- F B- D+ C+ A- D+ A+ C+ B- 46% 18% 36% F C+ D+ F+ D- B A A+ A+
0.86 43% 33% 15% -17 +3 0.73 40% 0.8 .33 24% .40 73% .29 0.87 61% 11% 33% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.1 .31 21% .21 50% .11
Dec
7		 Yale D F F+ A- F 37% 27% 37% D+ F A- F C- B B- A+ A C A A+ D+ A+ 35% 27% 38% A- A+ D- F F C- F D- F
1.01 28% 31% 39% -10 -1 0.80 36% 0.8 .27 12% .30 88% .26 1.23 47% 15% 39% -7 -1 0.85 38% 1.5 .56 14% .50 82% .41
Dec
13		 Belmont A+ B- C- A+ A 20% 24% 56% D- A- A C B+ A+ D A+ B- F C- F F F 40% 5% 56% D F F A+ D A- F D F
1.32 60% 33% 43% +7 -2 1.12 42% 1.0 .42 13% .23 100% .23 1.36 65% 50% 54% +20 +2 1.47 44% 0.9 .40 22% .44 73% .32
Dec
17		 Northern Iowa F+ D F F F 48% 16% 36% B F B B B+ A- D- F F+ B B- D F D- 21% 26% 52% A+ D+ F A+ C+ A+ C+ F D+
0.88 50% 13% 17% -17 +1 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 15% .21 64% .13 0.98 56% 45% 41% +7 -2 1.12 29% 0.8 .21 24% .24 82% .19
Dec
21		 Charlotte C- F A+ A+ C+ 42% 19% 38% B- C+ A- F F+ D- B- D C+ D- B B- D B- 45% 12% 43% D+ C+ F A+ B C- F F F
1.07 41% 50% 45% +1 0 1.06 37% 0.6 .23 18% .36 67% .24 1.23 55% 33% 38% 0 +2 1.06 47% 0.6 .26 18% .60 86% .51
Jan
1		 Murray St. D D F A- D- 42% 38% 21% F+ D- A D B F A+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ B- A+ 35% 29% 37% A A+ F F F B+ D F F
1.05 50% 28% 40% -5 -2 0.88 44% 0.9 .41 20% .45 81% .36 1.10 44% 20% 32% -11 -1 0.77 43% 1.4 .62 19% .37 86% .32
Jan
4		 Valparaiso D- B+ B+ F D+ 36% 36% 29% F D B- B B F B+ F+ B- C+ A A+ F B 39% 34% 26% C B C+ B- B- B F F F
0.95 67% 40% 17% -4 -2 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 26% .37 65% .24 1.06 47% 15% 50% -6 -2 0.87 30% 1.0 .30 18% .78 78% .61
Jan
7		 Southern Illinois B- F F F F 51% 15% 34% A- F+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ F+ A- A B+ F B C- 41% 25% 33% D+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.08 46% 29% 25% -12 +2 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 14% .40 64% .25 0.88 52% 62% 29% +1 0 1.04 17% 0.6 .10 23% .08 50% .04
Jan
10		 Illinois St. D- F C+ F F 40% 40% 19% D- F B+ A+ A+ F F A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 15% 58% C A+ D- B C- C+ F F+ F
0.91 43% 38% 10% -13 -2 0.71 33% 1.7 .56 22% .20 91% .18 0.85 43% 13% 19% -21 0 0.60 32% 1.0 .32 17% .38 77% .30
Jan
13		 Northern Iowa A- A+ A- F A 45% 27% 29% C- A- F+ A+ B- A+ B+ F C- A- C+ A- A+ A+ 39% 14% 48% C A+ F D+ F B+ F+ F F
1.10 73% 46% 21% +3 0 1.08 17% 1.6 .28 10% .32 56% .18 0.97 59% 33% 14% -14 +1 0.75 33% 1.2 .39 18% .31 88% .27
Jan
17		 Drake C- F F C F 28% 23% 50% C- F B A A C+ A+ F+ A+ B A+ F A- B- 25% 25% 49% B+ B C A+ B+ C+ C- A+ B
1.12 45% 22% 35% -6 -1 0.88 35% 1.2 .41 14% .66 63% .42 1.01 38% 69% 28% -1 -2 0.96 26% 0.8 .21 15% .32 56% .18
Jan
20		 Evansville C A+ A- F C 43% 29% 27% C- C C+ B+ B A- A- F C A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 25% 11% 64% F A+ F A+ B+ A+ B- F C-
1.13 73% 47% 21% +4 -1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 13% .34 60% .21 0.73 45% 40% 25% -12 0 0.80 31% 0.5 .17 28% .25 83% .21
Jan
24		 Bradley A+ A B A+ A+ 20% 43% 37% F A+ B- D+ C+ A- D A C B F+ F A C 34% 19% 47% D+ C A- F C+ C- F+ C+ D-
1.30 70% 43% 56% +16 -4 1.27 34% 0.9 .31 15% .29 81% .23 1.07 69% 44% 27% 0 0 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 14% .39 73% .28
Jan
27		 Indiana St. C C C- A+ B 45% 24% 31% C+ B B- F D D+ A+ B A+ D+ F F C+ F 43% 7% 50% C F+ F F F A+ A A+ A+
1.12 57% 42% 44% +5 0 1.12 36% 0.7 .24 16% .35 75% .26 1.09 74% 67% 32% +7 +2 1.20 50% 1.2 .61 31% .17 50% .09
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Southern Illinois B- C- F F F 47% 16% 37% B+ F+ A+ C A+ F A+ A+ A+ B- A- A- F C 47% 26% 28% D C A+ A+ A+ D+ F D- F
1.03 55% 29% 19% -11 +1 0.81 49% 1.0 .49 26% .53 81% .43 1.00 50% 33% 46% 0 0 1.02 16% 0.4 .06 15% .39 73% .29
Feb
3		 Murray St. D- F F C F+ 38% 25% 36% C- F+ D- A+ B- C A+ F A- B+ A+ F B A 35% 14% 51% C- A- C+ F F A D B- D+
0.99 43% 29% 35% -8 -1 0.85 27% 1.4 .38 16% .46 59% .27 1.08 44% 57% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.7 .53 21% .37 73% .27
Feb
6		 Belmont D- B- A+ F C+ 39% 27% 34% C- C B- F F C+ A F B+ B+ D+ A+ F D+ 21% 9% 70% A- C D+ A+ A A+ D A+ B-
0.98 59% 58% 20% -1 -1 0.98 35% 0.5 .18 17% .36 68% .25 1.07 67% 25% 43% +10 0 1.23 31% 0.8 .23 27% .35 56% .19
Feb
12		 Drake B+ B- D A+ C+ 30% 37% 33% F C- B- F+ C- A- C+ A+ A+ B- B A+ F+ C+ 33% 17% 50% D+ C C+ F+ C- A- C+ F D+
1.22 63% 30% 44% +4 -3 1.04 33% 0.8 .25 11% .31 94% .29 1.07 53% 25% 39% 0 0 1.02 25% 1.3 .31 18% .30 81% .24
Feb
15		 Illinois St. B A- A F A 48% 33% 19% C+ A A+ B A+ C F F F A+ A D- A+ A+ 22% 17% 61% B- A+ A+ F A A+ A+ F A+
1.14 68% 47% 27% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.1 .42 16% .13 50% .07 0.77 50% 44% 24% -10 -1 0.81 14% 1.4 .20 23% .11 83% .09
Feb
18		 Evansville A+ B D+ A+ A+ 28% 22% 50% C- A+ A D B- F F A- F A+ F A+ A+ A+ 21% 19% 60% C- A+ A- F C+ B A+ A+ A+
1.30 64% 36% 60% +21 -1 1.42 41% 0.9 .38 23% .10 80% .08 0.71 80% 11% 18% -15 -1 0.70 16% 1.3 .22 22% .16 63% .10
Feb
21		 Valparaiso D+ C- D- F+ D 46% 24% 30% C D B- A+ A D+ B- F C- D+ D+ A+ F+ C+ 28% 34% 38% B C+ F+ A- C C- F F+ F
1.04 57% 27% 29% -5 0 0.91 35% 1.2 .41 19% .34 61% .21 1.11 62% 19% 39% -3 -2 0.91 37% 0.9 .34 14% .45 76% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 40.4 40.4 2nd
3rd 37.1 37.1 3rd
4th 2.9 8.4 11.3 4th
5th 7.0 7.0 5th
6th 4.2 4.2 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 14.1 45.5 40.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 40.4% 12.9% 12.9% 12.4 0.1 3.1 2.0 0.0 35.2
12-8 45.5% 9.2% 9.2% 13.0 0.0 0.7 2.8 0.7 0.0 41.3
11-9 14.1% 6.7% 6.7% 13.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 13.1
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 12.7 89.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.2% 100.0% 12.4 2.3 59.2 37.7 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.0%
Lose Out 2.7%