Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.7 #184
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 #269
Pace 68.0 #220
Improvement +3.0 #45

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #207 D B D B C
Defense #170 C D+ A- D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.03 #319 -0.6 #204
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #165 0.73 #210 +0.0 #179
Three Pointers 37% #273 0.93 #277 -3.7 #300
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #298 -4.3 #298
Freethrows 19.1 #90 75% #96 14.4 #77
Second Chance 37.8% #25 1.02 #213 0.39 #63
Turnovers 18.4% #283
Total Offense -1.5 #207

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #258 1.15 #160 +1.8 #113
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #229 0.58 #12 +2.2 #40
Three Pointers 46% #59 1.05 #235 -3.2 #306
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #148 +0.8 #147
Freethrows 19.0 #267 77% #335 14.5 #55
Second Chance 37.6% #351 0.96 #77 0.36 #277
Turnovers 19.7% #40
Total Defense -0.2 #170

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #163 0.1% #173
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.8% #311 -1.7% #147
Possession Length 17.9 #237 17.4 #212
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #147 0.23 #331
Improvement +0.8 #132 +2.2 #62

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.8% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.4 15.3
.500 or above 2.3% 7.4% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 11.2% 27.2% 8.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.8% 5.2% 15.1%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.8% 1.7% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 13.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 33 - 94 - 17
Quad 46 - 310 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 281 Detroit Mercy W 91 - 71 78%  +6  1 - 0 +10 +1 C- A+ F +6 A+ A- A
 Fri, Nov 7 182 @Oregon St. L 73 - 76 38%  -3  1 - 1 -2 +2 C+ D+ F -3 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 353 @Chicago St. W 67 - 63 79%  -2  2 - 1 -6 -4 F A+ F -2 D- B C+
 Thu, Nov 20 86 High Point L 80 - 90 21%  -6  2 - 2 -3 +4 C- A+ F -7 C B- B+
 Sat, Nov 22 333 Southern Indiana W 84 - 73 80%  +11  3 - 2 +0 +4 C C- F -4 F C B
 Wed, Nov 26 206 @Robert Morris L 74 - 88 41%  -13  3 - 3 -14 +3 F A D -17 D- F B
 Wed, Dec 3 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62 - 63 86%  -5  3 - 4 -14 -21 F D F +6 C+ D A-
 Sun, Dec 7 80 @Yale L 66 - 80 13%  -4  3 - 5 -4 -1 F C B -3 A+ F C
 Sat, Dec 13 73 @Belmont L 84 - 87 12%  +3  3 - 6 0 - 1 +8 +23 A A- A+ -15 F D A
 Wed, Dec 17 96 Northern Iowa L 54 - 60 34%  -2  3 - 7 0 - 2 -4 -6 F A- A+ +1 C- C- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 166 @Charlotte L 76 - 88 OT 35%  +9  3 - 8 -10 +1 C+ F F -10 B- A- B-
 Thu, Jan 1 91 Murray St. L 77 - 81 32%  +1  3 - 9 0 - 3 -1 -0 D+ B+ F -0 A+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 4 188 @Valparaiso L 59 - 66 39%  +1  3 - 10 0 - 4 -6 -4 C- B- F -3 B C B
 Wed, Jan 7 130 Southern Illinois W 70 - 57 48%  +8  4 - 10 1 - 4 +12 +4 F A+ A +8 C A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 85 @Illinois St. L 66 - 78 14% 
 Tue, Jan 13 96 @Northern Iowa L 58 - 68 17% 
 Sat, Jan 17 169 Drake W 72 - 70 57% 
 Tue, Jan 20 263 Evansville W 73 - 66 75% 
 Sat, Jan 24 116 @Bradley L 68 - 76 22% 
 Tue, Jan 27 191 Indiana St. W 75 - 72 62% 
 Sat, Jan 31 130 @Southern Illinois L 69 - 76 27% 
 Tue, Feb 3 91 @Murray St. L 74 - 85 16% 
 Fri, Feb 6 73 Belmont L 73 - 80 27% 
 Thu, Feb 12 169 @Drake L 69 - 73 36% 
 Sun, Feb 15 85 Illinois St. L 69 - 75 30% 
 Wed, Feb 18 263 @Evansville W 70 - 69 54% 
 Sat, Feb 21 188 Valparaiso W 71 - 68 62% 
 Tue, Feb 24 116 Bradley L 71 - 73 41% 
 Sun, Mar 1 191 @Indiana St. L 72 - 75 41% 
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 13 -2 -2 D B D +0 C D+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 6.5 5.0 1.3 0.0 15.3 7th
8th 0.4 3.3 7.9 5.8 1.4 0.0 18.8 8th
9th 0.7 4.4 9.3 6.3 1.3 0.0 22.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 5.5 8.4 4.6 0.9 0.1 21.0 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.5 1.0 0.1 7.3 11th
Total 0.2 1.1 4.0 8.7 14.2 17.5 17.6 15.1 10.6 6.6 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 15.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.4% 9.2% 9.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 1.2% 5.5% 5.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
11-9 2.8% 4.2% 4.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7
10-10 6.6% 2.6% 2.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.4
9-11 10.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 10.4
8-12 15.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 14.9
7-13 17.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.5
6-14 17.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.5
5-15 14.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.2
4-16 8.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.7
3-17 4.0% 4.0
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%