Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.6 #135
Expected Predictive Rating +0.8 #146
Pace 66.7 #235
Improvement +8.0 #1

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #174 D+ B C- C+ C
Defense #112 C+ D+ B+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #84 1.07 #291 +0.1 #167
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #140 0.75 #181 +0.6 #148
Three Pointers 36% #298 0.96 #262 -3.8 #310
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #267 -3.0 #266
Freethrows 0.32 #128 74% #136 0.24 #118
Second Chance 36.8% #33 1.05 #145 0.39 #48
Turnovers 17.9% #261
Total Offense -0.3 #174

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #269 1.12 #121 +2.4 #97
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #272 0.68 #59 +1.8 #56
Three Pointers 47% #38 0.98 #117 -2.0 #276
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #103 +2.2 #104
Freethrows 0.31 #202 76% #334 0.23 #239
Second Chance 36.9% #354 0.95 #80 0.35 #282
Turnovers 19.9% #34
Total Defense +1.8 #112

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #189 0.3% #196
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.0% #284 -4.7% #85
Possession Length 17.8 #238 17.5 #236
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #128 0.19 #254
Improvement +3.3 #39 +4.7 #12

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 6.9% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 66.8% 85.7% 58.6%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 99.3% 93.9%
Conference Champion 5.5% 11.8% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.8% 6.9% 5.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 30.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 23 - 44 - 6
Quad 34 - 89 - 13
Quad 47 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 278 Detroit Mercy W 91 - 71 85% +6  1 - 0 +10 +1 C- A+ F +7 A B+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 184 @Oregon St. L 73 - 76 51% -3  1 - 1 -2 +2 B- D+ F -4 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 355 @Chicago St. W 67 - 63 88% -2  2 - 1 -7 -4 F A+ F+ -2 D C- C+
 Thu, Nov 20 98 High Point L 80 - 90 36% -6  2 - 2 -5 +3 C- A+ F -8 C- C+ B+
 Sat, Nov 22 332 Southern Indiana W 84 - 73 87% +11  3 - 2 +0 +6 B- C- D- -6 F C C+
 Wed, Nov 26 220 @Robert Morris L 74 - 88 57% -13  3 - 3 -14 +2 D- A- C- -17 D F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62 - 63 91% -5  3 - 4 -15 -19 F D F +5 C D B+
 Sun, Dec 7 80 @Yale L 66 - 80 21% -4  3 - 5 -4 -1 F C- B -4 A+ F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 74 @Belmont L 84 - 87 19% +3  3 - 6 0 - 1 +8 +23 A- B A+ -15 F D B+
 Wed, Dec 17 110 Northern Iowa L 54 - 60 54% -2  3 - 7 0 - 2 -5 -6 F B+ B -0 D+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 157 @Charlotte L 76 - 88 OT 45% +2  3 - 8 -9 +0 C+ D- D- -9 B- B C
 Thu, Jan 1 106 Murray St. L 77 - 81 51% +1  3 - 9 0 - 3 -3 -2 D B F+ -0 A+ F A-
 Sun, Jan 4 160 @Valparaiso L 59 - 66 45% +1  3 - 10 0 - 4 -4 -3 D+ B F -2 B C B
 Wed, Jan 7 137 Southern Illinois W 70 - 57 62% +8  4 - 10 1 - 4 +11 +6 F+ A+ A +7 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 87 @Illinois St. W 63 - 59 OT 23% +1  5 - 10 2 - 4 +13 -3 F A+ F +17 A+ C C+
 Tue, Jan 13 110 @Northern Iowa W 69 - 61 31% +0  6 - 10 3 - 4 +15 +12 A- B- A+ +3 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 162 Drake W 74 - 67 68% +7  7 - 10 4 - 4 +4 +3 F+ A B- +1 B- B C+
 Tue, Jan 20 269 Evansville W 76 - 49 84% +13  8 - 10 5 - 4 +18 +4 C B A- +15 A A- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 121 @Bradley W 85 - 70 35% +8  9 - 10 6 - 4 +21 +20 A+ C+ A +2 C C+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 198 Indiana St. W 76 - 74 75% +9  10 - 10 7 - 4 -3 +4 B+ D C- -7 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 137 @Southern Illinois W 68 - 66 39% -6  11 - 10 8 - 4 +6 +5 F+ A+ F +1 C A+ C-
 Tue, Feb 3 106 @Murray St. L 77 - 83 30%
 Fri, Feb 6 74 Belmont L 75 - 78 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 162 @Drake L 71 - 72 45%
 Sun, Feb 15 87 Illinois St. L 69 - 71 43%
 Wed, Feb 18 269 @Evansville W 72 - 67 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 160 Valparaiso W 71 - 66 68%
 Tue, Feb 24 121 Bradley W 74 - 72 57%
 Sun, Mar 1 198 @Indiana St. W 74 - 73 54%
Totals 15 - 14 12 - 8 +2 +0 D+ B C- +2 C+ D+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.1 2.4 0.6 5.5 1st
2nd 1.5 8.6 7.5 1.6 0.1 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.9 9.3 10.4 1.6 22.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 7.0 12.3 2.1 0.0 21.9 4th
5th 0.1 3.5 10.3 3.1 0.0 17.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.4 2.5 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 1.6 0.2 4.0 7th
8th 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.6 3.9 11.0 20.9 26.2 21.5 11.2 4.0 0.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 91.9% 0.6    0.4 0.2
15-5 59.7% 2.4    0.9 1.4 0.1
14-6 18.6% 2.1    0.3 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 1.6 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.7% 11.0% 11.0% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.6
15-5 4.0% 10.4% 10.4% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 3.6
14-6 11.2% 9.6% 9.6% 12.4 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 10.1
13-7 21.5% 8.5% 8.5% 12.7 0.7 1.0 0.1 19.7
12-8 26.2% 5.4% 5.4% 13.2 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 24.8
11-9 20.9% 3.4% 3.4% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 20.2
10-10 11.0% 2.0% 2.0% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.8
9-11 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 3.8
8-12 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 12.9 94.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.3%