Le Moyne
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.2 #291
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 #270
Pace 70.9 #135
Improvement +2.0 #82

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #216 C C D- C C+
Defense #328 C- D+ D D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #222 1.21 #118 +0.1 #174
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #241 0.61 #337 -2.4 #297
Three Pointers 46% #100 1.03 #158 +2.7 #101
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #170 +0.4 #168
Freethrows 17.6 #171 71% #240 12.5 #183
Second Chance 29.9% #210 1.03 #207 0.31 #205
Turnovers 19.1% #313
Total Offense -1.9 #216

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #224 1.07 #77 +2.4 #96
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #241 0.54 #5 +2.7 #19
Three Pointers 45% #84 1.23 #362 -6.7 #355
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #230 -1.6 #230
Freethrows 18.5 #242 77% #341 14.2 #67
Second Chance 33.8% #290 1.08 #231 0.37 #284
Turnovers 14.8% #290
Total Defense -5.3 #328

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #151 0.4% #200
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.2% #173 2.7% #232
Possession Length 16.7 #125 16.7 #92
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #216 0.21 #287
Improvement -0.9 #249 +2.9 #37

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 58.1% 69.3% 42.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.1% 96.8% 87.9%
Conference Champion 13.1% 18.1% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.4% 1.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 58.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 414 - 815 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 97 @Xavier L 69 - 74 8%  -4  0 - 1 +3 +2 A+ F F +1 D A A+
 Sun, Nov 9 132 @Bowling Green L 60 - 83 13%  -6  0 - 2 -18 -10 D+ C- F -8 C- A+ F
 Thu, Nov 13 167 @Massachusetts L 80 - 94 18%  -11  0 - 3 -12 +3 C C A- -14 F F C
 Mon, Nov 17 354 Niagara W 74 - 68 81%  +4  1 - 3 -10 -3 C F F -7 F C C-
 Sat, Nov 22 282 Fairfield L 83 - 97 60%  -12  1 - 4 -24 +3 D A+ F -26 F F F
 Fri, Nov 28 318 @Lafayette W 76 - 63 47%  +1  2 - 4 +7 +1 D+ A+ F +6 B+ B- B
 Sat, Nov 29 194 Monmouth W 83 - 79 31%  +1  3 - 4 +2 +12 A B- D- -10 A+ F F
 Sun, Nov 30 312 Ball St. L 85 - 96 57%  -0  3 - 5 -20 +12 A+ F A- -32 F F C-
 Sat, Dec 6 359 @Binghamton W 78 - 63 68%  +10  4 - 5 +3 +3 B- D- D +0 A- D+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 45 @Texas L 53 - 95 3%  -18  4 - 6 -28 -18 F D+ D- -7 C F A-
 Sat, Dec 20 119 @St. Bonaventure L 81 - 92 12%  -1  4 - 7 -5 +12 C+ B+ C -17 F D+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 151 @Boston College L 64 - 72 17%  -2  4 - 8 -5 -7 C F F +2 D- A+ C-
 Fri, Jan 2 361 @St. Francis (PA) W 84 - 58 70%  +9  5 - 8 1 - 0 +13 +9 A A- F +5 A- A+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 307 @Mercyhurst L 60 - 74 44%  -8  5 - 9 1 - 1 -20 -8 F C+ C+ -13 D+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 338 New Haven W 73 - 47 76%  +16  6 - 9 2 - 1 +11 +6 B C- A +9 B+ B+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 269 Central Connecticut St. W 76 - 74 59% 
 Sat, Jan 17 353 @Chicago St. W 78 - 75 61% 
 Mon, Jan 19 209 LIU Brooklyn L 77 - 79 44% 
 Fri, Jan 23 316 Wagner W 77 - 72 68% 
 Sun, Jan 25 349 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 79 - 76 59% 
 Thu, Jan 29 209 @LIU Brooklyn L 74 - 82 24% 
 Sat, Jan 31 340 Stonehill W 75 - 68 75% 
 Thu, Feb 5 316 @Wagner L 74 - 75 46% 
 Sat, Feb 7 361 St. Francis (PA) W 83 - 72 85% 
 Thu, Feb 12 307 Mercyhurst W 73 - 69 66% 
 Sat, Feb 14 353 Chicago St. W 81 - 72 79% 
 Thu, Feb 19 269 @Central Connecticut St. L 73 - 77 36% 
 Sat, Feb 21 340 @Stonehill W 72 - 71 55% 
 Thu, Feb 26 349 Fairleigh Dickinson W 82 - 73 78% 
 Sat, Feb 28 338 @New Haven W 70 - 69 55% 
Totals 15 - 15 11 - 7 -7 -2 C C D- -5 C- D+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.3 4.1 2.8 1.0 13.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 5.7 9.3 7.8 3.2 0.7 0.0 27.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 6.6 9.5 5.1 1.2 0.1 23.7 3rd
4th 0.6 4.8 6.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 14.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 4.5 1.5 0.1 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 3.2 1.2 0.1 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.1 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.0 4.1 7.7 11.8 15.6 17.7 16.1 12.3 7.4 3.5 1.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 98.5% 1.0    0.9 0.1
15-1 80.7% 2.8    2.1 0.7 0.0
14-2 56.2% 4.1    2.3 1.6 0.2
13-3 27.2% 3.3    1.3 1.6 0.5 0.0
12-4 8.8% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-5 1.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 13.0% 13.0 7.0 4.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.0% 1.0
15-1 3.5% 3.5
14-2 7.4% 7.4
13-3 12.3% 12.3
12-4 16.1% 16.1
11-5 17.7% 17.7
10-6 15.6% 15.6
9-7 11.8% 11.8
8-8 7.7% 7.7
7-9 4.1% 4.1
6-10 2.0% 2.0
5-11 0.5% 0.5
4-12 0.2% 0.2
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1%