Lehigh
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#246
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#239
Pace69.0#178
Improvement+1.1#114

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#205
First Shot+2.8#97
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#351
Layup/Dunks-2.4#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#14
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#136
Freethrows-0.7#230
Improvement-1.9#308

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#285
First Shot+0.1#169
After Offensive Rebounds-3.7#358
Layups/Dunks+1.6#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#59
Freethrows+0.0#192
Improvement+3.0#15
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 16.9% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 50.6% 59.8% 34.0%
.500 or above in Conference 71.9% 80.2% 56.8%
Conference Champion 19.6% 25.4% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.3% 2.9% 9.8%
First Four5.9% 6.0% 5.9%
First Round11.8% 13.9% 8.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 64.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 414 - 814 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 55   @ Northwestern L 46-90 6%     0 - 1 -31.2 -16.6 -16.1
  Nov 06, 2024 67   @ Georgetown L 77-85 8%     0 - 2 +3.0 +7.3 -4.0
  Nov 12, 2024 179   @ Columbia L 75-76 26%     0 - 3 +1.1 +9.4 -8.5
  Nov 15, 2024 20   @ UCLA L 45-85 3%     0 - 4 -22.1 -12.5 -12.5
  Nov 26, 2024 339   @ St. Francis (PA) L 78-88 63%     0 - 5 -18.2 +1.7 -20.0
  Nov 30, 2024 231   Marist W 74-69 58%     1 - 5 -1.7 +6.3 -7.6
  Dec 04, 2024 261   Monmouth W 90-63 64%     2 - 5 +18.6 +13.6 +5.3
  Dec 07, 2024 48   @ Dayton L 62-86 5%     2 - 6 -10.2 +0.8 -13.6
  Dec 21, 2024 336   @ LIU Brooklyn W 60-59 63%     3 - 6 -7.0 -13.3 +6.3
  Jan 02, 2025 266   Bucknell W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 05, 2025 322   @ Loyola Maryland W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 08, 2025 241   @ Colgate L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 312   Army W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 15, 2025 257   @ Boston University L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 322   Loyola Maryland W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 22, 2025 232   @ American L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 267   Lafayette W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 29, 2025 318   Navy W 78-71 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 313   @ Holy Cross W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 03, 2025 241   Colgate W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 232   American W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 12, 2025 318   @ Navy W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 313   Holy Cross W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 17, 2025 266   @ Bucknell L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 267   @ Lafayette L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 26, 2025 257   Boston University W 71-68 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 312   @ Army W 73-72 53%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.1 5.3 5.0 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 19.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.3 5.9 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.2 6.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 6.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.6 2.5 0.2 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.5 2.8 0.2 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.1 0.3 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.2 7.4 10.3 12.2 13.7 13.4 11.7 9.1 6.1 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 99.5% 1.6    1.5 0.0
15-3 95.3% 3.3    3.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 82.3% 5.0    3.8 1.2 0.1
13-5 58.4% 5.3    2.7 2.1 0.4 0.0
12-6 26.2% 3.1    0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 4.9% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.6% 19.6 12.4 5.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 61.4% 61.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 44.4% 44.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.6% 37.0% 37.0% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0
15-3 3.5% 35.5% 35.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 2.2
14-4 6.1% 28.3% 28.3% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 4.4
13-5 9.1% 26.3% 26.3% 15.5 0.1 0.9 1.4 6.7
12-6 11.7% 21.3% 21.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 9.2
11-7 13.4% 15.9% 15.9% 15.9 0.2 2.0 11.3
10-8 13.7% 12.1% 12.1% 16.0 0.1 1.6 12.1
9-9 12.2% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 1.2 11.0
8-10 10.3% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.6 9.8
7-11 7.4% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.3 7.2
6-12 5.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 5.1
5-13 2.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 2.9
4-14 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.6 9.8 85.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.2 3.7 70.4 25.9