Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.3 #327
Expected Predictive Rating -9.4 #317
Pace 69.5 #161
Improvement -0.3 #195

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #241 D+ D+ C+ C+ C-
Defense #357 D- F C- B C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #225 1.03 #327 -3.4 #296
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #126 0.81 #95 +1.5 #96
Three Pointers 40% #199 0.95 #268 -1.7 #244
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #285 -3.5 #285
Freethrows 0.29 #228 79% #7 0.23 #139
Second Chance 26.8% #288 1.00 #218 0.27 #275
Turnovers 16.1% #140
Total Offense -2.6 #241

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #143 1.23 #281 -2.4 #264
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #232 0.81 #281 +0.2 #175
Three Pointers 41% #172 1.19 #356 -3.7 #324
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #340 -5.9 #340
Freethrows 0.24 #29 74% #276 0.18 #36
Second Chance 38.3% #361 1.11 #296 0.42 #357
Turnovers 15.4% #252
Total Defense -7.8 #357

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #246 0.7% #232
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.3% #288 10.7% #345
Possession Length 17.8 #237 16.4 #48
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #290 0.19 #247
Improvement -1.5 #270 +1.2 #111

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.2% 17.5% 2.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.1% 2.3%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Home) - 37.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 410 - 1111 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 48 @USC L 83 - 114 2% -16  0 - 1 -17 +6 C+ D B+ -18 C+ F D+
 Wed, Nov 12 210 Utah Tech W 79 - 75 24% +3  1 - 1 +1 +11 B B+ D+ -10 B F F
 Fri, Nov 14 102 @Hawaii L 56 - 86 6% -15  1 - 2 -22 -12 C- F C -10 C F F
 Sat, Nov 15 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 73 89% +5  2 - 2 -17 +6 C+ A- D- -22 F F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 27 @Texas A&M L 68 - 109 1% -21  2 - 3 -22 -0 B- F+ C -20 F C- F+
 Wed, Nov 26 330 Wagner L 101 - 103 OT 62% +8  2 - 4 -16 +11 C B+ B- -26 F F+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 336 @Army L 78 - 81 OT 42% -3  2 - 5 -11 -5 F C C -6 F+ C- B
 Fri, Dec 5 272 Fairfield W 70 - 66 46% +4  3 - 5 1 - 0 -5 -11 F+ F F +5 B- C+ A
 Sun, Dec 7 161 @Marist L 68 - 80 12% -3  3 - 6 1 - 1 -9 -3 C F C -6 C F+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 169 @Fordham L 53 - 82 12% -11  3 - 7 -27 -13 F D+ C+ -16 F F+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 164 Furman L 68 - 75 25% -2  3 - 8 -10 -6 D+ D+ D+ -4 D+ D- A-
 Sun, Dec 21 262 Presbyterian W 87 - 81 44% +3  4 - 8 -3 +9 A- D B+ -12 D D- D-
 Mon, Dec 29 352 @Rider W 74 - 71 48% -2  5 - 8 2 - 1 -7 +1 F+ C+ D -8 D+ F C
 Fri, Jan 2 186 Quinnipiac W 80 - 79 30% -8  6 - 8 3 - 1 -4 +4 B- F B- -8 B- F A-
 Sun, Jan 4 201 @Merrimack L 66 - 73 16% -4  6 - 9 3 - 2 -7 -2 D+ F A+ -5 F B+ D
 Fri, Jan 9 345 Canisius L 64 - 70 66% +1  6 - 10 3 - 3 -21 -11 F+ F D+ -10 C- D+ F
 Sun, Jan 11 349 Niagara W 79 - 70 68% -1  7 - 10 4 - 3 -6 +12 F A+ A+ -17 F B D+
 Wed, Jan 14 272 @Fairfield L 62 - 98 25% -20  7 - 11 4 - 4 -39 -15 F D- D- -23 F D C-
 Sat, Jan 17 174 Siena L 59 - 74 27% -12  7 - 12 4 - 5 -19 -10 F D- A- -11 F B- B-
 Mon, Jan 19 186 @Quinnipiac L 92 - 98 OT 14% +1  7 - 13 4 - 6 -5 +9 C- C+ B+ -13 F+ F C
 Sat, Jan 24 231 @Iona L 57 - 66 19% -8  7 - 14 4 - 7 -10 -10 F D+ C- -1 C C C+
 Fri, Jan 30 352 Rider W 95 - 90 70% +2  8 - 14 5 - 7 -11 +18 A+ C- C+ -28 F F F
 Sun, Feb 1 289 @Mount St. Mary's L 65 - 72 28% -4  8 - 15 5 - 8 -11 -3 F B+ B- -9 A- F D
 Thu, Feb 5 235 St. Peter's L 71 - 74 37%
 Sat, Feb 7 276 Sacred Heart L 81 - 82 47%
 Fri, Feb 13 349 @Niagara L 71 - 72 45%
 Sun, Feb 15 345 @Canisius L 71 - 73 45%
 Fri, Feb 20 161 Marist L 67 - 74 25%
 Fri, Feb 27 235 @St. Peter's L 68 - 77 19%
 Sun, Mar 1 231 Iona L 76 - 79 39%
Totals 11 - 19 8 - 12 -10 -3 D+ D+ C+ -8 D- F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.3 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.2 3.0 3.2 0.2 6.6 7th
8th 0.2 3.7 7.3 1.2 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.4 5.4 12.9 5.1 0.1 23.9 9th
10th 0.6 9.7 19.7 8.2 0.5 38.7 10th
11th 2.5 7.0 2.4 0.2 12.1 11th
12th 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 13th
Total 4.8 17.8 27.7 25.2 16.3 6.6 1.5 0.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.2% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
10-10 6.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.5
9-11 16.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.2
8-12 25.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 25.1
7-13 27.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 27.7
6-14 17.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.8
5-15 4.8% 4.8
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.6%