Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#235
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#234
Pace68.5#168
Improvement+5.7#10

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#139
First Shot+3.3#90
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#308
Layup/Dunks-2.1#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#55
Freethrows+0.1#168
Improvement+2.5#68

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#317
First Shot-1.4#222
After Offensive Rebounds-3.7#359
Layups/Dunks-3.4#303
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#94
Freethrows+0.1#176
Improvement+3.2#37
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 19.9% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 1.8% 0.0%
First Round10.4% 19.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 11 - 3
Quad 416 - 917 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 11   @ Maryland L 49-79 2%     0 - 1 -9.0 -12.8 +4.5
  Nov 15, 2024 222   Fordham W 78-76 58%     1 - 1 -4.1 -3.6 -0.6
  Nov 17, 2024 314   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 82-85 59%     1 - 2 -9.4 +9.1 -18.6
  Nov 22, 2024 323   Army W 80-79 79%     2 - 2 -11.5 -0.8 -10.7
  Nov 26, 2024 99   @ Virginia L 65-74 15%     2 - 3 -1.7 +3.4 -6.2
  Nov 29, 2024 355   Le Moyne L 77-81 88%     2 - 4 -21.0 -12.1 -8.7
  Dec 06, 2024 287   @ St. Peter's W 70-67 52%     3 - 4 1 - 0 -1.5 +1.0 -2.4
  Dec 08, 2024 266   Marist L 75-82 67%     3 - 5 1 - 1 -15.6 +4.2 -20.1
  Dec 18, 2024 343   @ Wagner W 80-66 70%     4 - 5 +4.5 +14.5 -8.5
  Dec 21, 2024 241   @ Presbyterian W 86-81 OT 41%     5 - 5 +3.4 +8.1 -5.0
  Jan 03, 2025 255   @ Siena L 95-103 2OT 43%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -10.3 +1.8 -10.4
  Jan 05, 2025 303   @ Rider W 80-79 56%     6 - 6 2 - 2 -4.5 +5.4 -9.8
  Jan 10, 2025 259   Mount St. Mary's L 66-75 65%     6 - 7 2 - 3 -17.1 -5.3 -12.3
  Jan 12, 2025 191   @ Merrimack L 62-69 31%     6 - 8 2 - 4 -5.9 -0.9 -5.6
  Jan 18, 2025 311   Niagara W 72-65 77%     7 - 8 3 - 4 -4.8 +4.8 -8.4
  Jan 23, 2025 327   Fairfield L 84-87 OT 80%     7 - 9 3 - 5 -15.9 +1.7 -17.5
  Jan 25, 2025 259   @ Mount St. Mary's W 74-64 45%     8 - 9 4 - 5 +7.4 +7.2 +0.9
  Jan 31, 2025 256   Iona W 76-55 65%     9 - 9 5 - 5 +13.1 +7.5 +7.1
  Feb 02, 2025 261   @ Sacred Heart L 72-74 45%     9 - 10 5 - 6 -4.7 -9.1 +4.6
  Feb 08, 2025 287   St. Peter's W 84-83 OT 72%     10 - 10 6 - 6 -9.0 +11.5 -20.5
  Feb 14, 2025 191   Merrimack W 79-75 52%     11 - 10 7 - 6 -0.4 +12.1 -12.3
  Feb 16, 2025 327   @ Fairfield W 80-67 63%     12 - 10 8 - 6 +5.6 +9.8 -3.3
  Feb 21, 2025 256   @ Iona L 60-65 44%     12 - 11 8 - 7 -7.4 -8.7 +1.2
  Feb 23, 2025 199   Quinnipiac L 71-74 54%     12 - 12 8 - 8 -7.9 -2.8 -5.1
  Feb 28, 2025 356   @ Canisius W 77-72 77%     13 - 12 9 - 8 -6.9 +0.4 -7.0
  Mar 02, 2025 311   @ Niagara W 85-70 59%     14 - 12 10 - 8 +8.7 +21.6 -10.5
  Mar 06, 2025 261   Sacred Heart W 90-74 66%     15 - 12 11 - 8 +7.8 +14.8 -6.5
  Mar 08, 2025 255   Siena W 78-66 64%     16 - 12 12 - 8 +4.2 -2.7 +6.3
  Mar 13, 2025 256   Iona W 75-74 54%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 100.0% 10.9% 10.9% 15.8 1.7 9.1 89.1
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 15.8 1.7 9.1 89.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.9% 100.0% 15.8 15.9 84.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 12.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 31.1%
Lose Out 45.3%