Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#271
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#263
Pace69.8#137
Improvement+2.1#91

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#200
First Shot+1.5#130
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#318
Layup/Dunks-2.8#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#132
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#67
Freethrows-0.2#183
Improvement-0.5#203

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#326
First Shot-1.5#225
After Offensive Rebounds-3.8#361
Layups/Dunks-3.5#310
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#90
Freethrows+0.1#176
Improvement+2.5#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 5.7% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 47.4% 57.9% 30.7%
.500 or above in Conference 55.7% 67.0% 37.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four2.6% 3.1% 1.9%
First Round3.3% 4.0% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Home) - 61.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 31 - 5
Quad 414 - 1115 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 16   @ Maryland L 49-79 2%     0 - 1 -10.8 -15.4 +5.2
  Nov 15, 2024 191   Fordham W 78-76 41%     1 - 1 -1.9 -1.9 -0.1
  Nov 17, 2024 322   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 82-85 55%     1 - 2 -10.4 +7.3 -17.7
  Nov 22, 2024 297   Army W 80-79 64%     2 - 2 -8.9 +0.5 -9.5
  Nov 26, 2024 97   @ Virginia L 65-74 11%     2 - 3 -1.6 +4.9 -7.7
  Nov 29, 2024 355   Le Moyne L 77-81 82%     2 - 4 -19.9 -9.6 -10.1
  Dec 06, 2024 272   @ St. Peter's W 70-67 40%     3 - 4 1 - 0 -0.7 +1.3 -2.0
  Dec 08, 2024 211   Marist L 75-82 46%     3 - 5 1 - 1 -12.1 +6.2 -18.6
  Dec 18, 2024 335   @ Wagner W 80-66 60%     4 - 5 +5.2 +13.3 -6.7
  Dec 21, 2024 283   @ Presbyterian W 86-81 OT 42%     5 - 5 +0.8 +5.5 -5.0
  Jan 03, 2025 246   @ Siena L 95-103 2OT 36%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -10.6 +2.1 -11.1
  Jan 05, 2025 303   @ Rider W 80-79 47%     6 - 6 2 - 2 -4.5 +6.5 -11.0
  Jan 10, 2025 260   Mount St. Mary's L 66-75 57%     6 - 7 2 - 3 -17.1 -5.3 -12.3
  Jan 12, 2025 198   @ Merrimack L 62-69 25%     6 - 8 2 - 4 -6.2 -1.4 -5.5
  Jan 18, 2025 316   Niagara W 72-65 70%     7 - 8 3 - 4 -4.6 +5.2 -8.6
  Jan 23, 2025 326   Fairfield L 84-87 OT 73%     7 - 9 3 - 5 -15.6 -0.8 -14.8
  Jan 25, 2025 260   @ Mount St. Mary's W 74-64 38%     8 - 9 4 - 5 +6.9 +7.0 +0.7
  Jan 31, 2025 256   Iona W 76-55 57%     9 - 9 5 - 5 +13.0 +7.5 +6.9
  Feb 02, 2025 288   @ Sacred Heart L 72-74 43%     9 - 10 5 - 6 -6.5 -10.0 +3.7
  Feb 08, 2025 272   St. Peter's W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 14, 2025 198   Merrimack L 68-70 46%    
  Feb 16, 2025 326   @ Fairfield W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 21, 2025 256   @ Iona L 72-75 36%    
  Feb 23, 2025 187   Quinnipiac L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 28, 2025 352   @ Canisius W 78-74 64%    
  Mar 02, 2025 316   @ Niagara W 73-72 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 288   Sacred Heart W 81-78 63%    
  Mar 08, 2025 246   Siena W 73-72 57%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.2 2.5 3rd
4th 1.0 4.9 6.8 2.1 0.1 14.8 4th
5th 0.4 5.6 8.8 2.7 0.1 17.6 5th
6th 0.1 3.8 10.0 3.7 0.2 17.8 6th
7th 1.3 9.1 5.4 0.6 16.4 7th
8th 0.3 5.4 6.8 0.9 13.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 5.9 1.2 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.7 1.7 0.1 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 1.1 0.1 2.1 11th
12th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.3 2.0 6.2 14.5 21.4 22.9 18.1 10.5 3.8 0.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.9% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.5% 13.0% 13.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 3.8% 10.1% 10.1% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.4
12-8 10.5% 9.2% 9.2% 15.8 0.2 0.8 9.5
11-9 18.1% 7.4% 7.4% 15.9 0.2 1.2 16.7
10-10 22.9% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.1 1.0 21.8
9-11 21.4% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.5 20.8
8-12 14.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 14.2
7-13 6.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.2
6-14 2.0% 2.0
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.9 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%