N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.3 273
Results Rating -6.3 265
Pace 70.8 118
Improvement +3.2 62

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 238 D+ C+ D B+ D
Defense D+ 288 D+ B- D- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 240 C- 56% 232 -2.0 254
2 Pt. Jumpers 58% 21 C+ 39% 136 +3.3 41
Three Pointers 35% 301 D 31% 293 -4.5 322
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 319 D+ -2.1 256
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 286
Second Chance C 30.4% 180 C+ 1.08 108 C+ 0.33 137
Turnovers D 18.9% 302
Freethrows B+ 0.36 28 B- 75% 98 B+ 0.27 25
Total Offense C- -2.4 238

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 144 C- 11.9% 240
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 226 C- 5.7% 232
Three Pointers D 77% 319 C 0.9% 175
Total D+ 50% 303 C- 6.3% 256

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 120 C 58% 181 +1.5 226
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 176 D+ 40% 271 +0.5 231
Three Pointers 38% 258 D- 38% 324 +0.7 218
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 205 D+ +2.5 277
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 266
Second Chance B- 27.5% 73 C 1.03 178 B- 0.28 88
Turnovers D- 13.4% 343
Freethrows C- 0.31 213 B 69% 40 C 0.22 175
Total Defense D+ -3.8 288

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 341 C+ 12.2% 122
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 34% 316 C 5.1% 156
Three Pointers C- 86% 235 D+ 0.4% 300
Total D 62% 316 C+ 6.2% 130

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 211 16.5 34
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 116 0.25 358
Improvement +3.8 #28 -0.6 #222

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 296 274 249
Results Rating Rank 309 267 238
Conference Record 4 - 14 5 - 13 6 - 12
Conference Finish 12 12 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 9% 1% 10%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Away) - 11.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 33 - 93 - 12
Quad 48 - 610 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 92 @South Carolina L 72 - 91 8% -14  0% 0 - 1 D -10 D -4 C F C D+ -4 F+ D- B+
 Mon, Nov 10 357 South Carolina St. W 85 - 62 87% +14  87% 1 - 1 C+ +5 F+ -9 F+ D- F A +11 C+ A A+
 Tue, Nov 18 350 @Morgan St. W 79 - 73 66% +4  84% 2 - 1 C- -5 C- -2 C B+ F C- -3 D- A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 113 @Davidson L 74 - 90 13% -9  6% 2 - 2 D -10 B +7 A- D B- F -17 F F+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 174 @Charlotte L 57 - 74 21% -17  0% 2 - 3 F+ -15 F -16 F D F C -0 F D+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 352 @NC Central W 69 - 54 67% -1  30% 3 - 3 C+ +4 F -14 F C F A+ +18 A+ A+ D
 Tue, Dec 9 202 Howard L 69 - 73 35% -8  0% 3 - 4 D+ -6 D+ -3 F A+ D- D+ -4 F A+ C
 Fri, Dec 12 349 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82 - 79 83% -2  33% 4 - 4 D- -13 C +2 C- B+ D- F -15 C- F F
 Tue, Dec 16 301 @UNC Greensboro W 71 - 65 46% +6  90% 5 - 4 C +1 D -5 F C- D+ B+ +7 A- C+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 108 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 25% +1  46% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -8 D+ -3 C- D- A- D -5 D- A C+
 Wed, Dec 31 292 Northeastern L 74 - 85 67% -4  1% 5 - 6 0 - 2 F -22 D+ -4 F B C+ F -19 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 214 @Stony Brook L 80 - 81 27% -4  13% 5 - 7 0 - 3 C -1 A- +11 D+ A+ C- F -12 F C F
 Thu, Jan 8 227 Elon L 64 - 69 52% -6  0% 5 - 8 0 - 4 D- -12 F -16 F B+ F+ B +5 A- B D-
 Thu, Jan 15 136 @William & Mary L 89 - 97 16% -7  5% 5 - 9 0 - 5 C- -3 B+ +8 A+ C F F -10 F B- F+
 Mon, Jan 19 259 @Hampton L 61 - 82 36% -5  35% 5 - 10 0 - 6 F -24 F+ -8 D- F B- F -17 D F F
 Thu, Jan 22 106 Hofstra W 79 - 78 24% -5  25% 6 - 10 1 - 6 C+ +2 B+ +8 C- A+ C+ D -6 C+ A F
 Sat, Jan 24 170 Towson W 80 - 73 40% +4  60% 7 - 10 2 - 6 C+ +3 B- +4 A+ D+ F C -1 D A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 199 @Monmouth L 81 - 83 OT 25% +2  60% 7 - 11 2 - 7 C -1 C+ +3 F+ A+ D- D+ -4 B- C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 221 @Drexel L 60 - 61 29% -6  10% 7 - 12 2 - 8 C -1 D- -7 F+ F C B+ +6 B D- D
 Thu, Feb 5 149 @College of Charleston L 62 - 78 18% -5  23% 7 - 13 2 - 9 D- -13 F -11 D D+ F C -1 F A- B+
 Sat, Feb 7 197 Campbell L 71 - 79 45% -6  3% 7 - 14 2 - 10 D- -13 F+ -8 D F A D+ -5 C F C-
 Fri, Feb 13 259 Hampton W 71 - 70 47% -4  6% 8 - 14 3 - 10 C- -5 C- -1 F+ C+ A+ D+ -4 D- F B
 Thu, Feb 19 149 College of Charleston L 61 - 74 36% -11  0% 8 - 15 3 - 11 F+ -16 D- -8 D- B F F+ -9 F A F+
 Sat, Feb 21 227 @Elon W 102 - 82 30% +10  96% 9 - 15 4 - 11 A +19 A+ +26 A+ A+ C- D -6 C+ F+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 108 @UNC Wilmington L 67 - 80 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 136 William & Mary L 81 - 86 33%
 Tue, Mar 3 197 @Campbell L 77 - 84 25%
Totals 10 - 17 5 - 13 -6 C- -2 F D+ D D+ -4 D B- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C+ D D+ 36% 58% 35% D D+ C C+ C+ D B+ B- B+ D+ C D+ D- D+ 41% 21% 38% C- D+ B- C B- D- C- B C
1.05 56% 39% 31% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.1 .33 19% .36 75% .27 1.14 58% 40% 38% +2 0 1.07 27% 1.0 .28 13% .31 69% .25
Nov
4		 South Carolina D A F B B- 35% 45% 20% F C F F F C A- B- A- D+ C C- F F+ 38% 13% 49% D F+ C F D- B+ C A B-
0.95 68% 28% 36% 0 -3 0.95 19% 0.7 .14 16% .35 73% .25 1.20 60% 43% 42% +7 +1 1.19 29% 1.3 .38 17% .33 71% .24
Nov
10		 South Carolina St. F+ C F F F 60% 10% 29% B+ F+ C F D- F A+ C+ A+ A A- B+ F C 29% 42% 29% B+ C+ C A+ A A+ F A+ D-
1.05 62% 20% 21% -5 +3 0.98 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 73% .39 0.77 43% 30% 43% -4 -3 0.88 29% 0.6 .17 30% .49 50% .25
Nov
18		 Morgan St. C- B+ A+ D+ B 29% 29% 42% F C D- A+ B+ F B A- A C- D F A+ D- 41% 25% 34% D- D- A+ A+ A+ F A B A
1.14 69% 54% 32% +6 -2 1.11 30% 1.8 .52 20% .49 78% .38 1.05 60% 53% 24% -1 0 1.00 14% 0.4 .05 7% .26 71% .19
Nov
28		 Davidson B D- B+ A+ A 32% 30% 39% D+ A- D- C- D B- A+ F+ A+ F D- F+ F F 51% 13% 36% F F D+ F F+ F F A F
1.12 50% 46% 47% +7 -2 1.14 23% 1.0 .23 17% .55 60% .33 1.36 65% 50% 44% +10 +2 1.27 33% 1.3 .42 9% .58 57% .33
Dec
2		 Charlotte F F+ B- F F 34% 24% 41% D+ F D- C D F A+ D- A+ C F A+ F F 41% 11% 48% D+ F B- F D+ C+ D+ B- C-
0.87 50% 40% 18% -12 -1 0.76 23% 1.1 .27 20% .55 66% .36 1.13 72% 20% 43% +10 +1 1.25 31% 1.1 .35 20% .36 68% .25
Dec
6		 NC Central F F+ B F F 38% 23% 40% D+ F C C+ C F A+ C- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 46% 21% 33% D A+ A A+ A+ D F C F
0.96 53% 44% 25% -6 0 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 29% .69 71% .49 0.75 45% 20% 13% -20 +1 0.63 21% 0.4 .09 15% .49 73% .36
Dec
9		 Howard D+ C- D+ F F 40% 32% 28% F F A+ B A+ D- D- B- D D+ B- F F F 64% 9% 27% F F C A+ A+ C F A- F
1.01 55% 31% 14% -12 -1 0.76 45% 1.2 .55 22% .28 73% .21 1.07 50% 75% 50% +5 +3 1.18 34% 0.2 .06 21% .52 68% .35
Dec
12		 Maryland Eastern Shore C A F C C- 31% 22% 47% D C- C+ A B+ D- A+ A A+ F B F A+ D+ 35% 32% 33% B+ C- D- F F F D D D-
1.18 71% 20% 33% 0 -1 1.00 34% 1.4 .47 19% .67 82% .55 1.14 50% 61% 21% -2 -2 0.95 33% 1.2 .40 10% .27 76% .21
Dec
16		 UNC Greensboro D B- F D- F 28% 28% 44% D- F A F C- D+ B+ A+ A B+ A+ B- B- A- 26% 28% 46% B+ A- D A- C+ F B A+ A+
1.09 64% 29% 32% -2 -2 0.94 41% 0.8 .31 15% .33 83% .27 1.00 43% 33% 32% -7 -2 0.85 30% 0.9 .26 9% .32 53% .17
Dec
29		 UNC Wilmington D+ F+ A D+ C 32% 33% 35% D C- F A+ D- A- A+ D A- D A- D F D- 41% 20% 39% D- D- B+ A+ A C+ F F F
1.03 50% 47% 30% -2 -2 0.95 14% 1.4 .19 11% .36 71% .25 1.15 48% 40% 45% +3 0 1.08 29% 0.8 .23 16% .55 77% .43
Dec
31		 Northeastern D+ B- A- F F+ 33% 28% 40% F F B C B C+ A+ C- A+ F C F F F 48% 24% 28% B- F C- C- C- F F B+ F
1.13 64% 50% 24% -1 -1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 17% .59 72% .42 1.30 58% 58% 43% +9 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 11% .46 63% .29
Jan
3		 Stony Brook A- F C A+ C- 40% 33% 27% D- D+ A+ D+ A+ C- B+ A+ A+ F C- B+ F F 40% 17% 42% C- F A- F C F C+ F+ C
1.22 43% 35% 50% -1 -1 0.98 56% 0.8 .46 17% .35 89% .31 1.24 57% 33% 50% +9 +1 1.21 22% 1.1 .25 12% .24 79% .19
Jan
8		 Elon F F B- F F 22% 24% 55% D- F C+ A B+ F+ F A- F B A A+ D- A 56% 8% 36% F+ A- A D B D- F+ A+ C
0.94 45% 42% 25% -9 -2 0.80 35% 1.4 .48 19% .16 78% .13 1.02 46% 0% 39% -7 +3 0.94 26% 1.1 .29 13% .37 59% .22
Jan
15		 William & Mary B+ A A+ A+ A+ 41% 24% 35% D+ A+ D- A+ C F A+ B A+ F C- D+ F F 62% 10% 29% F F A- F B- F+ F B F
1.17 71% 58% 44% +16 0 1.33 24% 1.3 .32 24% .39 74% .29 1.27 63% 40% 53% +11 +3 1.31 20% 1.3 .27 13% .47 71% .33
Jan
19		 Hampton F+ F F+ A+ D- 41% 33% 25% F+ D- D F F B- F C+ F F F C B+ F 19% 42% 40% A+ D C F F F A- F C+
0.95 48% 29% 46% -3 -1 0.94 24% 0.6 .13 16% .24 69% .17 1.27 90% 36% 29% +2 -4 0.98 34% 1.2 .42 6% .26 88% .23
Jan
22		 Hofstra B+ D A+ F B- 13% 39% 48% F C- A+ A A+ C+ A+ B- A+ D C+ B D- C- 17% 30% 53% A C+ A B- A F D C+ D
1.20 50% 50% 27% -1 -4 0.91 44% 1.3 .56 14% .61 74% .46 1.18 56% 31% 39% +2 -3 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 9% .33 75% .25
Jan
24		 Towson B- A+ A+ B- A+ 40% 16% 44% B A+ D C D+ F A+ C A+ C D F A D 35% 29% 37% C- D A+ A+ A+ D+ F C- F
1.12 72% 57% 35% +9 +1 1.22 22% 1.0 .22 21% .59 70% .41 1.02 61% 53% 26% +1 -1 1.02 26% 0.5 .13 15% .48 69% .33
Jan
29		 Monmouth C+ C- C+ F F+ 51% 27% 22% C- F+ A A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ D+ B- F A+ B 44% 26% 30% D+ B- B- C C+ F F F F
1.09 56% 38% 18% -6 0 0.90 41% 1.8 .72 22% .39 87% .34 1.12 52% 47% 24% -5 0 0.91 29% 1.0 .29 11% .38 84% .32
Jan
31		 Drexel D- D+ D+ F F+ 35% 22% 43% C F+ F B+ F C D+ A+ C+ B+ A- B- D- B 41% 24% 35% C+ B C+ F D- D A+ A+ A+
0.94 53% 36% 24% -9 0 0.84 16% 1.2 .19 16% .28 87% .24 0.95 48% 33% 39% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.2 .33 17% .04 0% .00
Feb
5		 College of Charleston F B- F C- D 23% 30% 47% D- D C D- D+ F A+ A+ A+ C F D B+ F 35% 31% 33% A- F A- B A- B+ A+ B A+
0.87 64% 21% 32% -5 -2 0.87 31% 0.8 .26 25% .34 83% .28 1.10 84% 41% 28% +7 -2 1.13 23% 1.0 .23 20% .25 71% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Campbell F+ D+ C+ C- D 51% 33% 16% D+ D D- F F A B F D D+ A D D- C+ 55% 11% 34% D- C A- F F C- F+ C- F+
1.01 57% 39% 33% 0 -1 1.00 25% 0.8 .20 13% .34 57% .20 1.13 46% 40% 38% -5 +3 0.98 27% 1.9 .52 17% .45 73% .33
Feb
13		 Hampton C- D F A+ D- 48% 39% 14% F F+ D+ A C+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ C- C- C+ D+ 44% 19% 37% F D- B- F F B F B+ F
1.07 57% 24% 50% -3 -2 0.93 26% 1.3 .32 11% .51 70% .35 1.06 58% 38% 31% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.3 .41 21% .54 68% .36
Feb
19		 College of Charleston D- F C+ D- F+ 37% 17% 46% B D- D+ A+ B F A- D B F+ F A+ F F 31% 29% 40% A- F D A+ A F+ A B A
0.96 47% 38% 29% -8 0 0.87 28% 1.3 .36 19% .29 67% .19 1.17 81% 20% 43% +7 -2 1.13 32% 0.6 .19 13% .25 71% .18
Feb
21		 Elon A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 31% 27% D A+ A+ C- A+ C- A A+ A+ D A A+ F C+ 40% 11% 49% C+ C+ D- D- F+ F D+ D D
1.51 81% 67% 54% +26 -1 1.53 50% 1.1 .55 16% .37 86% .32 1.21 48% 17% 42% 0 +1 1.04 38% 1.1 .43 12% .33 75% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.3 0.3 9th
10th 0.8 0.5 1.3 10th
11th 4.7 0.3 5.0 11th
12th 45.0 40.9 6.6 0.1 92.6 12th
13th 0.8 0.8 13th
Total 45.9 40.9 12.1 1.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 12.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.0
5-13 40.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 40.7
4-14 45.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 45.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 21.1%