North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.5 #293
Expected Predictive Rating -8.5 #297
Pace 66.6 #250
Improvement -3.7 #343

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #291 F C+ C D C
Defense #265 C- D- D- B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #111 0.91 #363 -3.5 #297
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.64 #310 -0.9 #221
Three Pointers 38% #251 0.93 #280 -3.2 #291
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #351 -7.7 #351
Freethrows 16.4 #236 65% #349 10.6 #300
Second Chance 30.2% #204 1.13 #86 0.34 #135
Turnovers 16.5% #172
Total Offense -4.4 #291

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #161 1.18 #205 -1.1 #220
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #294 0.82 #285 +0.9 #135
Three Pointers 44% #103 0.99 #154 -0.9 #211
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #215 -1.1 #216
Freethrows 15.7 #102 71% #105 11.1 #285
Second Chance 35.8% #336 1.10 #250 0.39 #326
Turnovers 14.1% #322
Total Defense -3.0 #265

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #170 1.2% #278
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.3% #356 1.0% #200
Possession Length 18.4 #286 16.8 #102
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #253 0.21 #293
Improvement -3.0 #341 -0.7 #235

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.1% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 6.7% 12.7% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 21.7% 35.4% 14.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 14.1% 6.5% 18.4%
First Four1.9% 2.3% 1.7%
First Round2.0% 2.9% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Away) - 36.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 32 - 53 - 8
Quad 48 - 1010 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 55 @Mississippi St. L 62 - 86 4%  -5  0 - 1 -11 -6 D C+ F -5 D+ B+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 288 Northwestern St. W 87 - 83 OT 60%  +5  1 - 1 -6 +3 F A+ C -9 F A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 15 128 East Tennessee St. L 74 - 78 27%  +8  1 - 2 -5 +2 D A+ C- -7 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 39 @Clemson L 61 - 81 2%  -14  1 - 3 -4 +4 D+ B+ A+ -11 B+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 273 @Chattanooga L 57 - 71 35%  -6  1 - 4 -17 -9 F F F -11 D- F A+
 Mon, Dec 1 208 @Jacksonville St. W 73 - 66 23%  -2  2 - 4 +7 +6 F A- B+ +2 A+ F F
 Wed, Dec 3 100 @San Francisco W 65 - 63 8%  -4  3 - 4 +10 +2 F A+ F +8 A+ C+ D+
 Mon, Dec 15 303 @Alabama A&M L 60 - 68 40%  -0  3 - 5 -13 -10 D F D -3 A+ F F
 Fri, Dec 19 122 @Loyola Marymount L 57 - 91 12%  -22  3 - 6 -29 -10 F C- A+ -19 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 337 Stetson L 67 - 70 75%  -0  3 - 7 0 - 1 -17 -9 F C D -8 F B B-
 Sat, Jan 3 189 Florida Gulf Coast L 55 - 72 40%  -8  3 - 8 0 - 2 -22 -22 F F B+ -1 C- B- A-
 Thu, Jan 8 254 @Eastern Kentucky L 80 - 88 31%  -3  3 - 9 0 - 3 -10 +8 B C C -19 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 280 @Bellarmine L 72 - 76 36% 
 Thu, Jan 15 350 North Florida W 84 - 76 79% 
 Sat, Jan 17 328 Jacksonville W 70 - 64 71% 
 Wed, Jan 21 207 @Queens L 74 - 82 23% 
 Sat, Jan 24 261 Central Arkansas W 73 - 72 54% 
 Thu, Jan 29 189 @Florida Gulf Coast L 71 - 79 21% 
 Sat, Jan 31 337 @Stetson W 73 - 72 54% 
 Wed, Feb 4 261 @Central Arkansas L 70 - 75 33% 
 Sat, Feb 7 186 @Austin Peay L 66 - 75 21% 
 Wed, Feb 11 297 West Georgia W 74 - 71 61% 
 Sat, Feb 14 254 Eastern Kentucky W 75 - 74 54% 
 Wed, Feb 18 207 Queens L 77 - 79 43% 
 Sat, Feb 21 177 @Lipscomb L 69 - 78 20% 
 Wed, Feb 25 280 Bellarmine W 75 - 73 58% 
 Sat, Feb 28 297 @West Georgia L 71 - 74 40% 
Totals 10 - 17 7 - 11 -7 -4 F C+ C -3 C- D- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.1 3rd
4th 0.4 1.9 1.2 0.2 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 6.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.5 1.2 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.3 5.9 2.6 0.1 11.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 6.6 4.4 0.5 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 6.3 6.1 0.9 0.0 15.2 9th
10th 0.3 1.8 6.4 6.5 1.8 0.1 16.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.1 5.2 1.6 0.1 14.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 7.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.0 9.1 14.0 16.4 17.0 14.0 10.6 6.4 3.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 87.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 33.3% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.1
13-5 0.4% 17.3% 17.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.2% 14.9% 14.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
11-7 3.1% 8.3% 8.3% 15.5 0.1 0.1 2.9
10-8 6.4% 7.5% 7.5% 15.9 0.1 0.4 5.9
9-9 10.6% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7 9.9
8-10 14.0% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.5 13.5
7-11 17.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 16.7
6-12 16.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 16.2
5-13 14.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.9
4-14 9.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.1
3-15 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.0
2-16 2.1% 2.1
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.8 97.1 0.0%