North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.3 342
Results Rating -11.2 330
Pace 64.2 297
Improvement -3.4 305

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 318 D- C C- C- B-
Defense D- 339 D D- D C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 25 D- 51% 334 +0.6 153
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 100 D- 32% 335 -1.4 257
Three Pointers 35% 305 D- 30% 329 -5.3 335
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 105 F+ -6.4 353
1st FG Attempt D- 0.90 343
Second Chance C 30.0% 195 C 1.04 161 C 0.31 175
Turnovers C- 18.0% 265
Freethrows C 0.31 175 D- 67% 338 C- 0.21 230
Total Offense D -5.7 318

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 31% 355 D+ 12.8% 291
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 284 D+ 6.6% 279
Three Pointers D 79% 297 C 1.0% 215
Total F 41% 360 D- 7.4% 338

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 94 D+ 61% 260 +3.3 292
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 343 F 45% 352 -1.1 104
Three Pointers 43% 108 D+ 35% 250 +2.1 281
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 345 D +3.1 302
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 319
Second Chance D 34.0% 313 D- 1.14 323 D- 0.39 340
Turnovers D 14.5% 318
Freethrows C+ 0.29 125 D 75% 306 C+ 0.21 156
Total Defense D- -6.6 339

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 215 C 11.0% 167
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 33% 311 C- 3.9% 237
Three Pointers D 89% 322 B+ 2.0% 30
Total D+ 60% 287 C+ 6.1% 140

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.8 322 16.9 110
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 344 0.21 301
Improvement -1.6 #265 -1.7 #278

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 349 341 330
Results Rating Rank 341 331 312
Conference Record 3 - 15 4 - 14 5 - 13
Conference Finish 12 12 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 96% 90% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 43.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 31 - 62 - 9
Quad 45 - 127 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 74 @Mississippi St. L 62 - 86 3% -5  10% 0 - 1 D- -13 F+ -9 D- B F D+ -3 C B- F
 Tue, Nov 11 275 Northwestern St. W 87 - 83 OT 39% +5  85% 1 - 1 D+ -5 C+ +2 D- A+ C D- -8 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 15 131 East Tennessee St. L 74 - 78 15% +8  88% 1 - 2 D+ -5 C -0 D+ A+ D+ D -5 F+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 41 @Clemson L 61 - 81 1% -14  5% 1 - 3 C- -4 C+ +3 D A- A+ F+ -9 B F A
 Sat, Nov 22 274 @Chattanooga L 57 - 71 20% -6  28% 1 - 4 F+ -17 F -12 D D F D- -8 D+ F A-
 Mon, Dec 1 196 @Jacksonville St. W 73 - 66 11% -2  17% 2 - 4 B- +8 C+ +3 D- B B+ B +5 A F D-
 Wed, Dec 3 127 @San Francisco W 65 - 63 6% -4  37% 3 - 4 B- +7 D+ -4 F A+ F A+ +11 A+ C- D+
 Mon, Dec 15 310 @Alabama A&M L 60 - 68 26% -0  36% 3 - 5 D- -14 F -14 D F D- C -1 A F F
 Fri, Dec 19 148 @Loyola Marymount L 57 - 91 8% -22  0% 3 - 6 F -30 F -14 F F+ A F -17 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 326 Stetson L 67 - 70 55% -0  38% 3 - 7 0 - 1 F+ -17 F -12 F C D- D -5 F B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 251 Florida Gulf Coast L 55 - 72 33% -8  0% 3 - 8 0 - 2 F -25 F -24 F F B- C -1 D B- B-
 Thu, Jan 8 279 @Eastern Kentucky L 80 - 88 20% -3  15% 3 - 9 0 - 3 D- -12 B- +4 C+ C B F -17 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 285 @Bellarmine W 82 - 73 23% +1  39% 4 - 9 1 - 3 C+ +5 A- +10 A+ D C D+ -4 D+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 340 North Florida L 91 - 105 60% -10  12% 4 - 10 1 - 4 F -29 C+ +3 C+ A C- F -32 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 306 Jacksonville L 68 - 90 47% -13  10% 4 - 11 1 - 5 F -34 F+ -10 F C C F -25 F F D
 Wed, Jan 21 212 @Queens L 62 - 87 13% -10  4% 4 - 12 1 - 6 F -25 F -16 F D F F+ -9 D- F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 251 @Florida Gulf Coast L 64 - 72 16% -8  5% 4 - 13 1 - 7 D -10 F+ -10 F A+ C C -1 C- C B
 Sat, Jan 31 326 @Stetson W 68 - 66 33% +3  81% 5 - 13 2 - 7 D+ -6 D -5 D+ D D C -1 A- F D+
 Wed, Feb 4 183 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 10% -7  15% 5 - 14 2 - 8 F -19 F -11 F D- C F+ -9 F D- C-
 Sat, Feb 7 157 @Austin Peay L 62 - 91 8% -17  4% 5 - 15 2 - 9 F -26 D+ -2 D C- D+ F -28 F F F
 Mon, Feb 9 183 Central Arkansas L 65 - 72 23% +5  82% 5 - 16 2 - 10 D- -11 F+ -10 C- C F C- -2 B- F B+
 Wed, Feb 11 317 West Georgia L 73 - 82 51% -6  2% 5 - 17 2 - 11 F -22 D+ -3 C+ F B F -20 F F+ F
 Sun, Feb 15 279 Eastern Kentucky W 84 - 78 OT 40% -1  39% 6 - 17 3 - 11 C- -4 D -5 D+ C F C+ +1 B A+ F
 Wed, Feb 18 212 Queens L 78 - 85 27% +1  55% 6 - 18 3 - 12 D- -13 D+ -3 C- A C F -11 F A+ D
 Sat, Feb 21 188 @Lipscomb L 51 - 73 11% -4  39% 6 - 19 3 - 13 F -21 F -17 F D+ C D- -6 F A+ C+
 Wed, Feb 25 285 Bellarmine L 75 - 77 43%
 Sat, Feb 28 317 @West Georgia L 71 - 77 29%
Totals 7 - 20 4 - 14 -12 D -6 D+ F+ B- D- -7 D- D- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D- D- F+ 45% 45% 35% B- D- C C C C- C D- C- D- D+ F D+ D 42% 15% 43% D- D D D- D- D C+ D C+
1.00 51% 32% 30% -6 +1 0.90 30% 1.0 .31 18% .31 67% .21 1.18 61% 45% 35% +3 +1 1.11 34% 1.1 .39 14% .29 75% .23
Nov
5		 Mississippi St. F+ F D+ B D 26% 43% 31% F D- C- A+ B F D- F F D+ D- A C- C 40% 24% 36% C- C F A+ B- F F C+ D-
0.87 29% 35% 35% -8 -4 0.78 24% 1.3 .31 18% .20 58% .12 1.20 68% 31% 35% +3 0 1.07 43% 0.7 .30 10% .37 67% .25
Nov
11		 Northwestern St. C+ F+ F B F+ 51% 15% 34% B D- B+ A+ A+ C A+ D- A+ D- F D C F 40% 31% 29% C F B+ A+ A+ D F F F
1.17 50% 29% 38% -4 +2 0.98 40% 1.5 .60 17% .60 68% .41 1.11 67% 44% 33% +5 -1 1.10 20% 0.3 .07 15% .46 83% .38
Nov
15		 East Tennessee St. C D- F B+ D+ 41% 13% 46% B- D+ B- A+ A+ D+ A A- A+ D F F C- F 35% 18% 47% B- F+ B+ A+ A+ F A A+ A+
1.08 53% 17% 38% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.4 .45 20% .39 81% .31 1.14 74% 50% 35% +8 0 1.18 22% 0.6 .14 10% .23 57% .13
Nov
17		 Clemson C+ D- F F+ F+ 35% 13% 52% A- D A C+ A- A+ C- F D F+ C F+ B A- 39% 4% 57% D- B F D F A D- F+ F
0.97 47% 17% 28% -11 +1 0.81 33% 1.0 .33 13% .27 67% .18 1.29 61% 50% 31% -1 +2 1.04 54% 1.1 .60 19% .39 80% .31
Nov
22		 Chattanooga F C+ F D D 36% 19% 45% C- D D+ D- D F C F F D- D+ F C+ D+ 27% 15% 58% C- D+ F C+ F A- C- B C
0.94 60% 25% 32% -3 0 0.95 30% 1.0 .30 20% .35 53% .19 1.18 62% 57% 32% +2 0 1.06 42% 1.1 .45 20% .29 71% .21
Dec
1		 Jacksonville St. C+ F C+ D- F 52% 10% 38% A- D- B- B B B+ C- C C- B A+ A+ B A+ 46% 8% 46% D A D+ F F D- C A+ A
1.11 44% 40% 30% -9 +2 0.88 32% 1.2 .37 14% .32 78% .25 1.00 41% 0% 32% -13 +2 0.81 31% 1.5 .45 14% .35 45% .16
Dec
3		 San Francisco D+ F C+ F F 47% 29% 24% C F A+ C- A+ F B+ A A A+ A- D- A+ A+ 29% 14% 57% C+ A+ B+ F C- D+ B A A-
1.00 38% 40% 25% -12 -1 0.76 48% 1.1 .50 19% .32 82% .26 0.97 50% 43% 25% -9 0 0.84 27% 1.4 .38 14% .29 63% .18
Dec
15		 Alabama A&M F C F A D+ 32% 28% 40% F D F F F D- C- F D- C A+ F A+ A+ 36% 23% 40% C- A F F F F F A- F
0.92 60% 23% 42% +1 -1 1.02 12% 0.5 .06 18% .32 59% .19 1.04 35% 45% 21% -14 -1 0.72 32% 1.2 .39 11% .53 68% .36
Dec
19		 Loyola Marymount F F C F F 43% 31% 25% C- F C- F F+ A A+ F B+ F B F F D- 40% 9% 51% F F F F F F C- B C
0.83 32% 38% 23% -16 -1 0.69 30% 0.7 .21 12% .41 64% .26 1.32 55% 60% 43% +7 +2 1.20 38% 1.6 .59 13% .28 65% .18
Jan
1		 Stetson F D F+ F F 45% 6% 49% A F B- D C D- B- D C D F F A F 44% 16% 40% F F C+ A+ B+ C+ F D F
1.02 57% 33% 20% -11 +2 0.84 36% 1.1 .38 18% .30 69% .20 1.06 75% 57% 28% +7 +1 1.18 25% 0.7 .18 20% .36 74% .27
Jan
3		 Florida Gulf Coast F F F F F 48% 12% 40% B+ F F F F B- A+ F B+ C C+ D- F D 40% 21% 38% F+ D B- C+ B- B- A+ D- A
0.80 42% 0% 25% -18 +2 0.70 15% 0.8 .13 15% .46 67% .31 1.05 57% 45% 40% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.0 .28 19% .16 78% .13
Jan
8		 Eastern Kentucky B- B A A- B 26% 32% 43% F C+ F A+ C B A+ F C F B F D+ D+ 28% 16% 56% D- D+ F F F F F F F
1.21 67% 53% 40% +11 -2 1.19 23% 1.4 .33 14% .44 56% .25 1.34 50% 50% 36% +1 0 1.04 43% 1.4 .60 9% .38 83% .32
Jan
10		 Bellarmine A- A- F A+ A+ 37% 20% 44% C A+ B+ F D C A+ B A+ D+ F A+ D+ D+ 35% 10% 55% C+ D+ C+ F F D- B A+ A
1.36 73% 25% 61% +21 0 1.44 42% 0.8 .33 15% .43 77% .33 1.21 76% 20% 37% +7 +1 1.18 19% 1.8 .33 13% .25 62% .15
Jan
15		 North Florida C+ C C- B C 60% 10% 31% A C+ C A+ A C- B D- C+ F F F F F 30% 13% 57% C+ F F F F F F+ F F
1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +3 1.15 36% 1.6 .58 13% .33 65% .21 1.49 69% 57% 45% +15 0 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 10% .30 95% .28
Jan
17		 Jacksonville F+ D- A+ F F 53% 11% 36% A- F F A+ C C A+ A A+ F B- D F F 61% 14% 25% F F F+ F F D D+ F F
1.01 54% 60% 19% -8 +2 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 15% .52 77% .40 1.34 52% 43% 54% +4 +2 1.16 35% 1.9 .65 15% .31 89% .28
Jan
21		 Queens F D- F F F 54% 13% 33% B+ F C F D F A C A- F+ F+ F A+ D 58% 11% 31% F D- F C+ F C+ F F F
0.92 52% 17% 27% -10 +2 0.87 34% 0.8 .29 24% .43 73% .31 1.29 69% 80% 21% +5 +3 1.18 46% 1.1 .50 16% .44 96% .42
Jan
29		 Florida Gulf Coast F+ A- F F F 48% 24% 28% C F D+ A+ A+ C A D B+ C B F C- C- 27% 20% 53% C- C- C- C+ C B B+ F C
0.97 68% 18% 8% -11 0 0.80 27% 1.8 .48 17% .43 71% .31 1.09 54% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 20% .21 91% .19
Jan
31		 Stetson D A- F D- D+ 40% 16% 44% C+ D+ D C- D D A- D- B C F+ A+ A+ A 46% 22% 33% D- A- F F F D+ D+ F F
1.08 72% 29% 30% +2 +1 1.07 29% 1.1 .32 17% .35 67% .23 1.05 67% 10% 20% -9 0 0.85 34% 1.3 .46 17% .31 88% .27
Feb
4		 Central Arkansas F F D+ D+ F 43% 12% 45% B- F D- C- D- C B- F D- F+ D- A+ F F 39% 7% 54% F+ F D+ F+ D- C- A+ F A-
0.90 43% 33% 32% -9 +1 0.88 22% 1.1 .24 20% .30 50% .15 1.22 67% 0% 41% +6 +2 1.19 29% 1.2 .35 15% .16 78% .12
Feb
7		 Austin Peay D+ F+ A+ F F+ 59% 18% 24% B+ D A+ F C- D+ F A F F D- F F F 54% 6% 40% F F D+ F F F A+ A- A+
1.00 50% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.96 45% 0.5 .21 19% .18 78% .14 1.47 63% 100% 55% +19 +3 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 11% .16 67% .11
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Central Arkansas F+ D A+ D D 58% 8% 34% A C- C+ C- C F A+ B- A+ C- B- F A+ B+ 39% 9% 52% F+ B- C F F B+ F D- F
0.96 55% 67% 31% -1 +3 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 28% .47 74% .35 1.07 56% 75% 25% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.4 .41 19% .42 74% .31
Feb
11		 West Georgia D+ C D- A+ B- 53% 23% 25% C- C+ F D- F B D- D D- F C+ D F F 33% 31% 37% D+ F C- F F+ F B- F D+
1.13 61% 33% 46% +5 +1 1.13 22% 0.9 .19 12% .28 69% .19 1.27 53% 44% 47% +7 -2 1.13 31% 1.3 .41 11% .24 86% .21
Feb
15		 Eastern Kentucky D D+ B+ C D 45% 14% 40% B+ D+ A F C F A+ F+ A+ C+ C+ F A+ A 43% 5% 52% F B B A+ A+ F F A+ D
1.13 58% 50% 35% +2 +1 1.10 42% 0.8 .33 20% .77 67% .52 1.05 54% 100% 22% -8 +2 0.90 29% 0.7 .20 11% .39 58% .23
Feb
18		 Queens D+ C F A D 60% 10% 29% A C- C- A+ A C C F F F D+ B F F 49% 7% 44% F F A+ D- A+ D F F+ F
1.16 59% 0% 43% 0 +3 1.08 32% 1.5 .50 15% .35 50% .17 1.26 64% 33% 45% +10 +3 1.27 15% 1.3 .19 13% .48 82% .39
Feb
21		 Lipscomb F D- D+ F F 41% 33% 25% D+ F B- F D+ C F F F D- F F F F 35% 13% 52% B- F A A+ A+ C+ B+ A+ A+
0.82 52% 35% 0% -16 -1 0.67 34% 0.8 .27 18% .19 60% .12 1.17 88% 67% 42% +20 +1 1.43 17% 0.5 .09 18% .17 56% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 1.4 1.4 10th
11th 15.9 10.2 26.1 11th
12th 41.0 29.9 1.6 72.5 12th
Total 41.0 45.7 13.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 13.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.2
4-14 45.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 45.7
3-15 41.0% 41.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 1.8% 16.0 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 41.0%