North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.2 #326
Expected Predictive Rating -9.5 #321
Pace 66.0 #257
Improvement -4.7 #342

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #295 D- C C C- C+
Defense #328 C- F+ D C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #57 1.01 #335 -0.4 #191
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #187 0.60 #350 -1.7 #275
Three Pointers 37% #272 0.91 #311 -4.2 #316
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #343 -6.3 #343
Freethrows 0.31 #167 68% #320 0.21 #220
Second Chance 30.0% #199 1.09 #95 0.33 #142
Turnovers 17.2% #211
Total Offense -4.6 #295

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #120 1.19 #229 -1.9 #247
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #302 0.84 #303 +0.9 #118
Three Pointers 43% #116 1.02 #196 -1.2 #242
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #251 -2.2 #252
Freethrows 0.28 #105 75% #324 0.21 #148
Second Chance 35.9% #339 1.17 #333 0.42 #355
Turnovers 14.1% #325
Total Defense -5.6 #328

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #135 1.4% #297
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.1% #354 2.8% #234
Possession Length 18.2 #272 16.9 #131
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #308 0.20 #277
Improvement -1.8 #294 -2.9 #322

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 5.8% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 50.4% 25.6% 55.5%
First Four0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Away) - 17.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 31 - 72 - 9
Quad 46 - 118 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 73 @Mississippi St. L 62 - 86 4% -5  0 - 1 -13 -6 D B- F+ -7 C- B- F
 Tue, Nov 11 270 Northwestern St. W 87 - 83 OT 46% +5  1 - 1 -5 +3 F+ A+ C -8 D- A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 15 131 East Tennessee St. L 74 - 78 20% +8  1 - 2 -5 +2 D+ A+ C- -7 F+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 33 @Clemson L 61 - 81 1% -14  1 - 3 -3 +6 D+ B+ A+ -11 B F A-
 Sat, Nov 22 275 @Chattanooga L 57 - 71 25% -6  1 - 4 -17 -8 D D F -11 D F A
 Mon, Dec 1 191 @Jacksonville St. W 73 - 66 15% -2  2 - 4 +8 +6 D- B B+ +2 A F F+
 Wed, Dec 3 97 @San Francisco W 65 - 63 5% -4  3 - 4 +10 +1 F A+ F +10 A+ C D
 Mon, Dec 15 293 @Alabama A&M L 60 - 68 29% -0  3 - 5 -13 -10 D+ F D+ -3 A+ F F
 Fri, Dec 19 170 @Loyola Marymount L 57 - 91 13% -22  3 - 6 -32 -11 F F+ A -21 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 329 Stetson L 67 - 70 62% -0  3 - 7 0 - 1 -16 -8 F C+ D -9 F B C+
 Sat, Jan 3 223 Florida Gulf Coast L 55 - 72 36% -8  3 - 8 0 - 2 -23 -21 F F B -3 D B- B-
 Thu, Jan 8 265 @Eastern Kentucky L 80 - 88 24% -3  3 - 9 0 - 3 -11 +8 B- C C+ -19 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 305 @Bellarmine W 82 - 73 31% +1  4 - 9 1 - 3 +4 +14 A+ D C -9 D+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 351 North Florida L 91 - 105 70% -10  4 - 10 1 - 4 -30 +4 C A- C -33 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 295 Jacksonville L 68 - 90 52% -13  4 - 11 1 - 5 -33 -6 F C+ B- -28 F F D-
 Wed, Jan 21 208 @Queens L 62 - 87 17% -10  4 - 12 1 - 6 -25 -13 F D+ F -13 D- F C
 Thu, Jan 29 223 @Florida Gulf Coast L 64 - 72 18% -8  4 - 13 1 - 7 -8 -7 F A+ C -2 C C B-
 Sat, Jan 31 329 @Stetson W 68 - 66 39% +3  5 - 13 2 - 7 -5 -1 D+ D+ D+ -4 B+ F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 219 @Central Arkansas L 69 - 79 17%
 Sat, Feb 7 175 @Austin Peay L 67 - 79 12%
 Mon, Feb 9 219 Central Arkansas L 72 - 76 35%
 Wed, Feb 11 325 West Georgia W 76 - 73 60%
 Sun, Feb 15 265 Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 76 45%
 Wed, Feb 18 208 Queens L 76 - 80 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 178 @Lipscomb L 69 - 81 13%
 Wed, Feb 25 305 Bellarmine W 77 - 76 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 325 @West Georgia L 73 - 76 38%
Totals 8 - 19 5 - 13 -10 -5 D- C C -6 C- F+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.9 1.9 0.6 3.5 6th
7th 0.3 3.3 1.6 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 2.8 4.9 0.5 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 1.0 7.7 2.2 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.4 7.9 7.8 0.3 16.3 10th
11th 1.5 9.2 13.3 2.0 0.0 26.0 11th
12th 3.0 10.3 12.1 3.5 0.1 28.9 12th
Total 3.0 11.8 21.6 25.7 20.6 11.6 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 1.2% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.1 1.2
8-10 4.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.1
7-11 11.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.6
6-12 20.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 20.5
5-13 25.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 25.7
4-14 21.6% 21.6
3-15 11.8% 11.8
2-16 3.0% 3.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.0%