North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#197
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#187
Pace69.0#181
Improvement-2.1#292

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#174
First Shot+0.8#150
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#247
Layup/Dunks+1.8#120
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#66
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#190
Freethrows-2.8#328
Improvement-0.8#246

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#217
First Shot-3.2#285
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#65
Layups/Dunks-3.4#305
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#209
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#241
Freethrows+1.5#72
Improvement-1.3#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 11.8% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 86.8% 88.8% 70.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 87.6% 67.7%
Conference Champion 11.0% 11.9% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 1.7%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.8%
First Round11.1% 11.5% 7.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 89.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 63 - 8
Quad 415 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 269   @ Air Force W 73-57 54%     1 - 0 +13.2 +7.6 +7.5
  Nov 11, 2024 288   Tennessee Martin W 87-69 78%     2 - 0 +8.2 +10.1 -2.0
  Nov 15, 2024 118   Samford L 96-97 OT 44%     2 - 1 -1.1 -0.8 -0.2
  Nov 18, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 69-102 1%     2 - 2 -6.6 +1.6 -6.3
  Nov 23, 2024 334   Louisiana Monroe W 74-62 80%     3 - 2 +1.5 +4.2 -1.6
  Nov 24, 2024 290   @ Northwestern St. L 58-71 59%     3 - 3 -17.0 -9.6 -8.8
  Dec 01, 2024 151   @ Wofford L 54-74 32%     3 - 4 -16.8 -17.4 -0.2
  Dec 04, 2024 328   Tennessee Tech W 82-59 84%     4 - 4 +10.5 +7.4 +4.5
  Dec 11, 2024 182   @ East Carolina W 74-67 36%     5 - 4 +9.0 +2.6 +6.4
  Dec 19, 2024 298   Charleston Southern W 86-69 79%     6 - 4 +6.6 +10.9 -3.7
  Dec 22, 2024 157   @ Loyola Marymount L 69-85 32%     6 - 5 -13.0 +0.0 -13.2
  Jan 02, 2025 345   Bellarmine W 81-68 89%    
  Jan 04, 2025 230   Eastern Kentucky W 79-74 68%    
  Jan 09, 2025 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 68-71 37%    
  Jan 11, 2025 348   @ Stetson W 78-71 74%    
  Jan 16, 2025 211   @ Jacksonville L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 18, 2025 207   @ North Florida L 80-82 41%    
  Jan 23, 2025 109   Lipscomb L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 283   Austin Peay W 71-63 76%    
  Jan 29, 2025 264   @ Queens W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 338   Central Arkansas W 78-66 88%    
  Feb 05, 2025 283   @ Austin Peay W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 341   @ West Georgia W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 13, 2025 207   North Florida W 83-79 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 211   Jacksonville W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 18, 2025 341   West Georgia W 79-66 87%    
  Feb 20, 2025 109   @ Lipscomb L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 24, 2025 338   @ Central Arkansas W 75-69 72%    
  Feb 26, 2025 264   Queens W 80-73 73%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 3.5 2.0 0.8 0.1 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.4 5.1 1.6 0.2 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.6 7.3 4.7 0.9 0.0 17.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.4 7.2 4.2 0.7 0.0 15.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.2 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.1 7.0 10.3 13.8 15.4 15.3 13.0 9.3 5.2 2.2 0.8 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 92.3% 2.0    1.6 0.4 0.0
15-3 67.2% 3.5    2.1 1.2 0.1
14-4 34.6% 3.2    1.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.7% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 6.0 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 47.5% 47.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.8% 33.9% 33.9% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.2% 30.4% 30.4% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5
15-3 5.2% 26.2% 26.2% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 3.8
14-4 9.3% 20.2% 20.2% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 7.4
13-5 13.0% 15.8% 15.8% 14.6 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 11.0
12-6 15.3% 12.6% 12.6% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 13.4
11-7 15.4% 9.4% 9.4% 15.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 14.0
10-8 13.8% 6.6% 6.6% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.5 12.8
9-9 10.3% 4.6% 4.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.8
8-10 7.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.9
7-11 4.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 4.0
6-12 2.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.1
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 4.6 2.0 88.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.9 17.2 75.9 6.9