North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.0 129
Results Rating +3.6 110
Pace 66.0 248
Improvement +1.8 113

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 117 C C+ C D D+
Defense C 165 D B B B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 311 C 59% 145 -2.5 274
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 188 C+ 39% 138 +1.3 107
Three Pointers 43% 142 C+ 35% 125 +1.7 125
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 279 C+ +1.3 123
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 155
Second Chance C+ 32.3% 129 C- 1.01 200 C+ 0.33 140
Turnovers C 16.5% 159
Freethrows D 0.27 300 C- 71% 211 D 0.19 297
Total Offense C+ +1.9 117

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 289 C 10.8% 165
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 270 D+ 7.1% 304
Three Pointers B 91% 39 C- 1.1% 233
Total C- 54% 219 C 5.8% 207

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 281 D- 65% 340 +0.6 204
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 196 C- 40% 249 +0.1 193
Three Pointers 45% 70 D+ 36% 275 +3.4 324
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.1 138 D- +4.2 329
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 313
Second Chance C+ 29.5% 148 A- 0.88 16 B 0.26 54
Turnovers B 18.9% 63
Freethrows B 0.26 48 D+ 74% 273 B- 0.19 68
Total Defense C +0.1 165

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 52% 254 D+ 8.4% 278
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 192 C+ 6.1% 99
Three Pointers C- 86% 229 C- 0.8% 186
Total D+ 59% 257 D+ 4.5% 264

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.1 258 17.3 186
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 220 0.14 69
Improvement +3.1 #56 -1.2 #260

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 151 132 114
Results Rating Rank 136 119 88
Conference Record 13 - 3 14 - 2 15 - 1
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39% 43% 36%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round39% 43% 36%
Second Round2% 2% 2%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Away) - 37.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 37 - 48 - 5
Quad 415 - 223 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 158 @Oregon St. L 65 - 67 46% -1  26% 0 - 1 C +1 D -5 C- F+ A- B+ +5 D- A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 5 177 @UC Davis L 68 - 80 50% -2  43% 0 - 2 D -10 D -5 F B+ B- D -5 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 159 Cal St. Northridge W 90 - 68 69% +5  68% 1 - 2 A +19 C+ +2 F A+ A- A+ +14 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Nov 17 125 Southern Illinois W 92 - 85 59% +4  79% 2 - 2 B- +7 A +12 A A- A- D- -6 F C+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 196 Jacksonville St. W 56 - 43 65% +10  79% 3 - 2 B +11 F -12 C- F C A+ +25 A+ A A+
 Fri, Nov 28 143 @Arkansas St. L 80 - 85 OT 43% +1  40% 3 - 3 C -1 D+ -3 C- F+ C B- +2 C B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 194 @Montana W 81 - 72 54% +3  75% 4 - 3 B +10 B +7 D- A+ C+ B- +3 D+ B- C
 Sat, Dec 6 304 Northern Arizona W 69 - 68 89% +1  65% 5 - 3 D -10 F -15 F D- F B +5 C- B B-
 Thu, Dec 11 332 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 69 83% +6  78% 6 - 3 C+ +3 D+ -3 F A+ D B +5 C+ D+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 193 @Drake W 99 - 94 54% +9  94% 7 - 3 B- +6 A+ +20 A+ B+ A+ F -14 F A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 21 120 UC Irvine L 73 - 74 47% -3  15% 7 - 4 C+ +2 B+ +9 B+ A+ F D- -7 F C- C-
 Mon, Dec 22 243 @UTEP L 66 - 76 63% -3  23% 7 - 5 D- -11 D- -7 C+ F F D -5 F C B
 Wed, Dec 31 293 South Dakota W 84 - 61 88% +10  58% 8 - 5 1 - 0 B+ +12 A +12 B- A B+ B- +3 C- B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 335 Oral Roberts W 79 - 77 2OT 93% -0  47% 9 - 5 2 - 0 D- -12 D- -8 F B+ F D -5 D+ C- C
 Thu, Jan 8 360 @UMKC W 97 - 73 92% +18  99% 10 - 5 3 - 0 B +10 A+ +21 A+ F+ A- F -10 F B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 239 @Nebraska Omaha W 78 - 76 63% -6  8% 11 - 5 4 - 0 C +1 A- +10 A- C- B- F+ -9 D- F B
 Wed, Jan 14 210 South Dakota St. W 76 - 65 77% +8  96% 12 - 5 5 - 0 B- +5 C+ +3 A+ F B- B- +3 D- A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 128 St. Thomas W 68 - 65 60% +3  74% 13 - 5 6 - 0 C+ +2 F+ -9 D F D+ A+ +12 B A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 228 @Denver W 82 - 77 61% +5  80% 14 - 5 7 - 0 C+ +4 B +7 B+ C- C+ C- -2 D B- D
 Sat, Jan 24 335 @Oral Roberts W 86 - 58 84% +19  95% 15 - 5 8 - 0 A +20 A+ +18 A B- A+ B +5 D- C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 293 @South Dakota W 89 - 84 OT 74% +7  90% 16 - 5 9 - 0 C +0 B +6 A- D+ F D -6 F C D-
 Thu, Feb 5 228 Denver L 71 - 78 80% -5  7% 16 - 6 9 - 1 D- -14 F -14 F D+ C- C+ +0 C- B C
 Sat, Feb 7 239 Nebraska Omaha W 92 - 84 81% +8  85% 17 - 6 10 - 1 C +1 A+ +15 A C+ A+ F -14 F D+ C-
 Sat, Feb 14 294 @North Dakota W 83 - 66 74% +4  61% 18 - 6 11 - 1 B+ +12 B+ +9 B A+ F+ B +4 D+ B+ B+
 Wed, Feb 18 210 @South Dakota St. W 74 - 66 57% +2  72% 19 - 6 12 - 1 B +8 C+ +3 C+ F A+ B+ +6 D A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 21 360 UMKC W 95 - 59 97% +23  98% 20 - 6 13 - 1 A- +16 B- +5 B- A+ D A- +8 C+ A- C-
 Thu, Feb 26 128 @St. Thomas L 76 - 79 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 294 North Dakota W 83 - 70 89%
Totals 21 - 7 14 - 2 +2 C+ +2 B+ C+ D+ C +0 C+ C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C+ C+ C+ 34% 37% 43% D+ C C+ C- C+ C D C- D C D- C- D+ D- 35% 20% 45% C+ D C+ A- B B B D+ B-
1.11 59% 39% 35% +1 -1 1.03 32% 1.0 .33 16% .27 71% .19 1.09 65% 40% 36% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.9 .26 19% .26 74% .20
Nov
3		 Oregon St. D C+ A+ F C- 44% 15% 41% B- C- D+ F F+ A- F F F B+ D+ F D+ F+ 29% 17% 54% C+ D- A+ A+ A+ C+ F B F
0.99 58% 50% 23% -5 +1 0.94 28% 0.7 .21 11% .19 64% .12 1.02 58% 57% 36% +5 0 1.12 17% 0.6 .10 18% .48 73% .35
Nov
5		 UC Davis D C- D F F 46% 17% 37% C+ F A+ D- B+ B- F A+ C- D F+ A+ F F 58% 9% 33% F F F B F A+ C B+ B-
0.99 56% 33% 10% -15 +1 0.74 47% 0.9 .40 17% .25 93% .23 1.16 69% 25% 47% +12 +3 1.31 44% 0.9 .40 26% .33 71% .24
Nov
11		 Cal St. Northridge C+ C- A- F F 30% 18% 52% C F A+ A A+ A- A- B- A- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 50% 23% 27% B- A+ C+ F+ D+ A+ B D C+
1.12 56% 45% 22% -9 0 0.84 39% 1.4 .54 12% .37 77% .28 0.84 54% 23% 20% -11 0 0.80 31% 1.2 .36 25% .26 69% .18
Nov
17		 Southern Illinois A F A- A+ A+ 25% 25% 50% D- A C A+ A- A- C+ A+ B+ D- F F A+ F 45% 29% 25% C- F F A C+ A- A F B
1.19 40% 47% 47% +7 -2 1.13 28% 1.4 .39 15% .29 84% .24 1.10 72% 69% 21% +10 -1 1.22 37% 0.7 .27 21% .21 77% .16
Nov
26		 Jacksonville St. F A F A+ B- 23% 34% 43% F C- D F F C C F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 43% A+ A+ C A+ A A+ F A+ D
0.90 70% 20% 42% +2 -3 1.00 23% 0.4 .09 16% .33 59% .19 0.69 42% 17% 22% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 24% .49 57% .28
Nov
28		 Arkansas St. D+ F C A+ C- 34% 23% 43% C- C- D+ F F+ C A+ F A B- B- A+ D+ C+ 37% 10% 53% D+ C A+ D+ B+ F C F D-
1.02 42% 38% 42% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.7 .18 15% .47 65% .30 1.08 55% 17% 35% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 14% .33 91% .30
Dec
3		 Montana B C A+ F D 28% 34% 38% F D- B+ A+ A+ C+ A- A+ A+ B- D+ F C- F+ 22% 35% 43% A+ D+ D A+ B- C A- A+ A+
1.16 60% 56% 15% -4 -2 0.89 36% 1.5 .53 14% .37 91% .33 1.03 64% 56% 36% +9 -3 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 20% .23 62% .14
Dec
6		 Northern Arizona F F+ B- D F+ 27% 37% 37% F F A- F D- F B- F D+ B F A- F+ D 34% 38% 28% A+ C- C A+ B B- A+ F A
0.98 50% 42% 32% -2 -3 0.92 40% 0.7 .29 23% .33 61% .20 0.96 72% 30% 40% +4 -3 1.06 24% 0.8 .18 18% .14 75% .10
Dec
11		 Cal St. Bakersfield D+ F F F F 43% 17% 40% C+ F A+ A+ A+ D A+ D+ A+ B D A B+ C+ 35% 38% 27% B- C+ D C+ D+ B D+ F+ D
1.09 45% 25% 21% -16 +1 0.72 49% 1.3 .65 19% .62 70% .44 0.94 61% 25% 29% -6 -3 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 22% .37 81% .30
Dec
13		 Drake A+ C- D A+ A+ 21% 23% 55% D+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ B- F+ C F F A F F 27% 20% 53% C+ F B A+ A+ A- F F F
1.37 58% 31% 55% +16 -2 1.30 18% 2.0 .36 7% .33 64% .21 1.30 77% 30% 54% +19 -1 1.39 22% 0.3 .07 18% .49 90% .44
Dec
21		 UC Irvine B+ C- D A+ A- 31% 27% 42% D+ B+ A+ B+ A+ F A+ F C- D- F D+ C+ F 46% 24% 30% D F D+ C+ C- C- C B+ B-
1.11 50% 33% 42% +1 -1 1.02 51% 1.1 .54 29% .36 47% .17 1.12 70% 42% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.0 .33 17% .29 63% .18
Dec
22		 UTEP D- B- A+ F B- 36% 32% 32% D C+ F F F F B C- B- D D+ F F F 22% 40% 38% A F F+ A C B F F F
0.97 63% 71% 14% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.8 .19 24% .40 71% .29 1.12 64% 45% 42% +9 -4 1.12 32% 0.8 .26 19% .38 76% .29
Dec
31		 South Dakota A A+ A+ F B+ 40% 19% 40% D B- A- B- A B+ B- F C- B- A+ F F D- 25% 30% 45% A+ C- C- A+ B+ A+ B+ F C
1.32 76% 70% 24% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.3 .52 13% .31 65% .20 0.96 36% 46% 40% +1 -2 1.00 28% 0.7 .19 24% .31 87% .27
Jan
3		 Oral Roberts D- F+ F F+ F 39% 24% 37% F+ F A+ F B+ F A+ F A+ D C- A C- D 31% 12% 57% C D+ F+ B C- C A F B
1.05 48% 31% 30% -8 0 0.85 52% 0.9 .45 21% .53 61% .32 1.03 56% 29% 33% -2 +1 0.98 33% 0.8 .28 19% .21 85% .18
Jan
8		 UMKC A+ A A+ A+ A+ 34% 19% 47% D+ A+ B+ F F+ A- B+ B- B+ F F F F F 39% 22% 39% D F F A+ B+ A+ F+ B- D-
1.42 72% 50% 52% +20 0 1.42 44% 0.6 .26 13% .32 74% .24 1.06 67% 60% 39% +11 0 1.24 38% 0.4 .16 25% .33 65% .21
Jan
10		 Nebraska Omaha A- A+ A+ D A- 38% 16% 46% C+ A- F A+ C- B- F A+ D F+ F A+ F D- 40% 17% 43% D D- F D+ F B C+ F D-
1.26 79% 63% 30% +9 +1 1.22 20% 1.4 .28 13% .20 91% .19 1.23 74% 13% 40% +6 +1 1.15 38% 1.1 .42 19% .28 93% .26
Jan
14		 South Dakota St. C+ C B A+ A+ 24% 22% 55% D A+ F+ F F B- F A+ D- B- F A+ D+ D- 33% 16% 51% C D- A A+ A+ B- B B B+
1.17 58% 45% 50% +15 -1 1.29 20% 0.5 .10 14% .22 83% .18 1.00 75% 25% 36% +5 0 1.12 22% 0.3 .06 17% .22 67% .15
Jan
17		 St. Thomas F+ A+ F B C- 30% 30% 41% F D B+ F F D+ C F D+ A+ B- F C+ B 31% 6% 63% C+ B C+ A+ A+ A+ C- B C
0.98 75% 13% 36% -1 -2 0.96 36% 0.6 .21 19% .27 67% .18 0.93 60% 67% 33% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.3 .06 22% .31 65% .20
Jan
22		 Denver B B+ D A+ A- 37% 18% 45% C- B+ C- C- C- C+ D- B D+ C- C+ B F D 33% 19% 47% F+ D A- D- B- D A+ B- A+
1.26 68% 33% 43% +9 0 1.22 32% 1.1 .35 12% .26 73% .19 1.18 53% 36% 44% +5 0 1.12 24% 1.3 .29 12% .07 75% .05
Jan
24		 Oral Roberts A+ B+ A A+ A 53% 8% 40% B+ A C- A B- A+ F A+ F B D+ C D+ F+ 40% 17% 43% C- D- B D+ C+ A- A+ A- A+
1.38 64% 50% 43% +9 +3 1.26 31% 1.3 .41 10% .16 89% .14 0.93 58% 38% 35% 0 +1 1.04 23% 1.0 .23 22% .19 67% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 South Dakota B C+ C+ A+ A- 50% 13% 38% C+ A- C- D+ D+ F F A- F+ D F+ F C F 35% 13% 52% C- F A F C D- C F D-
1.20 61% 43% 48% +10 +2 1.25 31% 1.1 .34 20% .19 82% .15 1.13 67% 57% 33% +5 +1 1.13 19% 1.3 .26 15% .36 87% .32
Feb
5		 Denver F D F F F 42% 23% 35% D+ F F A- D+ C- B C- B- C+ D F A+ C 35% 22% 43% D- C- A+ F B C C- F+ D
1.00 55% 17% 28% -10 0 0.83 25% 1.3 .33 14% .36 68% .25 1.10 61% 64% 27% +2 0 1.06 18% 1.6 .29 14% .31 84% .26
Feb
7		 Nebraska Omaha A+ B B- A+ A+ 34% 26% 40% D- A B- C- C+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F F B F F 31% 12% 57% D F B- F D+ C- A D+ B+
1.37 67% 43% 48% +12 -1 1.25 32% 1.0 .32 7% .35 91% .32 1.25 69% 33% 48% +15 +1 1.33 23% 1.3 .30 16% .21 75% .16
Feb
14		 North Dakota B+ B F B B- 49% 2% 49% A- B A A+ A+ F+ D B C- B B+ F C- C- 44% 8% 48% D- D+ B- A- B+ B+ D- C D
1.28 67% 0% 38% +6 +3 1.21 44% 1.6 .70 23% .34 76% .26 1.02 48% 50% 35% -3 +2 1.00 25% 0.9 .22 19% .38 70% .27
Feb
18		 South Dakota St. C+ A+ B+ F B- 33% 27% 41% D C+ F D F A+ A+ D- A B+ F A+ C- D 35% 20% 45% C+ D A+ A+ A+ C- C+ A+ B+
1.13 81% 46% 25% +4 -1 1.08 13% 1.0 .13 8% .43 69% .30 1.01 78% 20% 35% +4 0 1.10 19% 0.4 .08 15% .25 57% .14
Feb
21		 UMKC B- D F A+ C+ 39% 7% 54% B B- A A+ A+ D F D F A- F+ D- A+ C 24% 24% 53% B- C+ A+ F A- C- C A+ A
1.23 54% 25% 42% +4 +2 1.15 46% 1.3 .59 19% .10 67% .06 0.76 64% 43% 23% -6 -1 0.86 13% 1.2 .15 18% .25 38% .09



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 7.5 58.9 33.6 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 7.5 58.9 33.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 33.6    33.6
14-2 100.0% 58.9    58.9
13-3 100.0% 7.5    7.5
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 33.6% 43.2% 43.2% 13.0 0.0 2.5 9.0 2.9 0.1 19.1
14-2 58.9% 37.1% 37.1% 13.6 0.6 9.4 10.7 1.1 0.0 37.1
13-3 7.5% 32.6% 32.6% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.1
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 38.8% 38.8% 0.0% 13.4 61.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.5% 100.0% 13.0 0.2 17.1 62.0 20.3 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.3%
Lose Out 0.7%