North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.9 #146
Expected Predictive Rating +1.7 #143
Pace 66.8 #243
Improvement +0.3 #164

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #139 C- B- C D D-
Defense #165 D B+ B B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #334 1.12 #226 -4.7 #322
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #87 0.84 #71 +2.9 #55
Three Pointers 43% #141 0.96 #252 -0.1 #182
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #225 -1.9 #226
Freethrows 15.7 #272 70% #268 11.0 #275
Second Chance 35.2% #59 1.01 #227 0.36 #104
Turnovers 16.2% #153
Total Offense +1.0 #139

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #279 1.27 #308 +0.0 #180
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #93 0.81 #268 -1.7 #295
Three Pointers 42% #167 1.09 #286 -2.0 #262
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #297 -3.6 #297
Freethrows 14.6 #51 75% #273 10.9 #295
Second Chance 32.3% #244 0.77 #4 0.25 #36
Turnovers 18.7% #68
Total Defense -0.1 #165

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.3% #307 -1.2% #80
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #193 8.6% #325
Possession Length 17.7 #212 17.3 #194
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #130 0.14 #69
Improvement +3.7 #15 -3.4 #347

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.2% 32.0% 27.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 99.4% 99.8% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.7% 97.4%
Conference Champion 48.7% 56.9% 34.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round30.2% 31.9% 27.1%
Second Round1.2% 1.4% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Away) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 35 - 55 - 7
Quad 415 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 182 @Oregon St. L 65 - 67 48%  -1  0 - 1 -1 -3 D D- A+ +2 F A+ C
 Wed, Nov 5 171 @UC Davis L 68 - 80 46%  -2  0 - 2 -10 -4 F A- C -6 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 211 Cal St. Northridge W 90 - 68 74%  +5  1 - 2 +16 +2 F A+ B +11 A+ D A+
 Mon, Nov 17 130 Southern Illinois W 92 - 85 58%  +4  2 - 2 +6 +12 A A- B -7 F A A
 Wed, Nov 26 208 Jacksonville St. W 56 - 43 63%  +10  3 - 2 +10 -10 C F C +22 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 126 @Arkansas St. L 80 - 85 OT 35%  +1  3 - 3 -0 +0 D+ D- C- +0 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 178 @Montana W 81 - 72 47%  +3  4 - 3 +11 +9 D A+ C+ +2 D+ B C
 Sat, Dec 6 302 Northern Arizona W 69 - 68 86%  +1  5 - 3 -10 -9 F C- F -0 D- B B-
 Thu, Dec 11 294 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 69 70%  +6  6 - 3 +7 +2 F A+ C- +4 C C+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 169 @Drake W 99 - 94 45%  +9  7 - 3 +7 +24 A+ A- A+ -17 F A+ A
 Sun, Dec 21 121 UC Irvine L 73 - 74 44%  -3  7 - 4 +1 +10 A A+ F -9 F C+ C-
 Mon, Dec 22 244 @UTEP L 66 - 76 60%  -3  7 - 5 -12 -5 C F F -7 F B+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 290 South Dakota W 84 - 61 85%  +10  8 - 5 1 - 0 +13 +12 B- B+ A +3 C A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 298 Oral Roberts W 79 - 77 2OT 86%  -0  9 - 5 2 - 0 -9 -4 F B F -5 C- C C-
 Thu, Jan 8 343 @UMKC W 97 - 73 82%  +18  10 - 5 3 - 0 +15 +25 A+ D- A+ -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 257 @Nebraska Omaha W 76 - 73 63% 
 Wed, Jan 14 173 South Dakota St. W 78 - 73 68% 
 Sat, Jan 17 135 St. Thomas W 76 - 74 59% 
 Thu, Jan 22 264 @Denver W 81 - 77 64% 
 Sat, Jan 24 298 @Oral Roberts W 76 - 70 70% 
 Sat, Jan 31 290 @South Dakota W 82 - 77 69% 
 Thu, Feb 5 264 Denver W 84 - 74 82% 
 Sat, Feb 7 257 Nebraska Omaha W 79 - 70 81% 
 Sat, Feb 14 319 @North Dakota W 78 - 70 76% 
 Wed, Feb 18 173 @South Dakota St. L 75 - 76 46% 
 Sat, Feb 21 343 UMKC W 80 - 64 92% 
 Thu, Feb 26 135 @St. Thomas L 73 - 77 37% 
 Sat, Feb 28 319 North Dakota W 81 - 67 89% 
Totals 19 - 9 12 - 4 +1 +1 C- B- C +0 D B+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.9 9.5 15.0 13.0 6.3 1.6 48.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.3 11.0 10.4 4.5 0.7 31.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.2 5.9 3.4 0.5 13.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.9 0.1 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.4 6.2 11.3 17.3 20.4 19.6 13.7 6.3 1.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
15-1 100.0% 6.3    6.2 0.1
14-2 95.2% 13.0    11.3 1.7
13-3 76.8% 15.0    10.2 4.6 0.2
12-4 46.7% 9.5    4.2 4.3 0.9 0.0
11-5 16.4% 2.9    0.6 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 48.7% 48.7 34.2 12.2 2.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.6% 52.8% 52.8% 12.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8
15-1 6.3% 46.2% 46.2% 13.1 0.4 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.4
14-2 13.7% 40.6% 40.6% 13.5 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 8.1
13-3 19.6% 34.6% 34.6% 13.9 0.1 1.7 3.7 1.2 0.0 12.8
12-4 20.4% 29.7% 29.7% 14.2 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.0 0.1 14.4
11-5 17.3% 24.9% 24.9% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.0 0.2 13.0
10-6 11.3% 20.7% 20.7% 14.7 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.2 9.0
9-7 6.2% 15.5% 15.5% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 5.2
8-8 2.4% 11.7% 11.7% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.2
7-9 0.8% 13.8% 13.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.7
6-10 0.3% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-12
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 30.2% 30.2% 0.0% 14.0 69.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 12.1 15.5 56.5 27.4 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%