North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#139
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#155
Pace64.2#292
Improvement+0.0#188

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#57
First Shot+5.7#45
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#228
Layup/Dunks-4.1#321
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#254
3 Pt Jumpshots+12.2#1
Freethrows-1.2#259
Improvement-0.9#246

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#286
First Shot-4.8#322
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#99
Layups/Dunks-3.1#297
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#131
Freethrows+2.0#57
Improvement+1.0#135
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.8% 24.1% 18.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 96.9% 99.4% 93.1%
Conference Champion 2.1% 3.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round21.8% 24.1% 18.4%
Second Round1.6% 1.8% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Away) - 59.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 21 - 32 - 3
Quad 33 - 56 - 8
Quad 413 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 135   Illinois St. L 68-77 59%     0 - 1 -10.0 -3.1 -7.6
  Nov 11, 2024 258   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 81-86 67%     0 - 2 -8.1 +13.5 -22.0
  Nov 13, 2024 64   @ Santa Clara W 88-80 OT 18%     1 - 2 +19.0 +11.8 +6.5
  Nov 18, 2024 183   @ Southern Illinois L 44-69 50%     1 - 3 -23.7 -24.6 -0.9
  Nov 26, 2024 109   @ Samford L 98-103 OT 31%     1 - 4 +1.4 +20.3 -18.6
  Nov 27, 2024 345   West Georgia W 73-61 89%     2 - 4 +0.1 -1.3 +2.2
  Nov 28, 2024 132   Utah Valley W 83-63 49%     3 - 4 +21.6 +28.3 -3.2
  Dec 04, 2024 286   @ Weber St. W 77-73 71%     4 - 4 -0.3 +11.2 -11.0
  Dec 07, 2024 154   Northern Colorado W 82-70 62%     5 - 4 +10.2 -1.9 +10.9
  Dec 10, 2024 75   @ Butler W 71-68 21%     6 - 4 +13.0 +12.2 +1.3
  Dec 15, 2024 306   Western Michigan W 98-62 87%     7 - 4 +25.2 +23.9 +2.7
  Dec 23, 2024 258   Cal St. Bakersfield W 94-60 81%     8 - 4 +26.0 +18.3 +8.5
  Jan 02, 2025 119   St. Thomas L 85-89 55%     8 - 5 0 - 1 -4.1 +14.8 -19.2
  Jan 04, 2025 212   Nebraska Omaha L 80-85 73%     8 - 6 0 - 2 -10.2 +3.4 -13.6
  Jan 09, 2025 315   @ Oral Roberts W 110-96 77%     9 - 6 1 - 2 +7.5 +32.8 -25.0
  Jan 11, 2025 331   @ Denver W 69-50 81%     10 - 6 2 - 2 +10.9 +1.0 +12.5
  Jan 16, 2025 235   UMKC W 71-64 78%     11 - 6 3 - 2 +0.2 -0.4 +0.9
  Jan 18, 2025 262   @ South Dakota W 103-77 67%     12 - 6 4 - 2 +22.8 +19.7 +2.3
  Jan 25, 2025 269   North Dakota W 87-82 82%     13 - 6 5 - 2 -3.6 +4.7 -8.4
  Jan 30, 2025 114   South Dakota St. L 62-72 53%     13 - 7 5 - 3 -9.5 -3.1 -7.7
  Feb 02, 2025 119   @ St. Thomas L 62-79 36%     13 - 8 5 - 4 -12.1 -4.5 -9.6
  Feb 06, 2025 235   @ UMKC W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 212   @ Nebraska Omaha W 77-75 53%    
  Feb 13, 2025 315   Oral Roberts W 84-71 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 331   Denver W 81-67 92%    
  Feb 19, 2025 114   @ South Dakota St. L 74-78 33%    
  Feb 22, 2025 269   @ North Dakota W 82-77 66%    
  Feb 26, 2025 262   South Dakota W 90-81 82%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.4 1.7 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 7.6 4.4 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 11.9 10.8 0.4 25.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 8.0 22.0 18.4 2.6 51.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.4 1.7 0.1 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.7 11.5 26.0 31.6 21.4 6.4 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 26.0% 1.7    0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1
11-5 1.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 6.4% 34.1% 34.1% 12.2 0.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.2
11-5 21.4% 27.1% 27.1% 13.0 1.1 3.5 1.2 0.0 15.6
10-6 31.6% 22.0% 22.0% 13.3 0.6 3.9 2.3 0.2 24.7
9-7 26.0% 18.2% 18.2% 13.7 0.2 1.7 2.3 0.6 21.3
8-8 11.5% 17.0% 17.0% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.4 9.5
7-9 2.7% 7.4% 7.4% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.5
6-10 0.4% 7.7% 7.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.4
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 21.8% 21.8% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 3.4 10.1 6.9 1.3 0.0 78.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 12.2 1.4 75.7 22.5 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%