Pacific
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.3 #125
Expected Predictive Rating +2.2 #126
Pace 64.4 #298
Improvement +0.7 #154

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #130 C+ C+ D- C C
Defense #141 B- B- C- D+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #126 1.12 #233 +0.4 #161
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #139 0.90 #36 +2.3 #68
Three Pointers 37% #265 1.12 #49 -0.2 #185
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #109 +2.5 #106
Freethrows 0.28 #261 77% #41 0.21 #199
Second Chance 34.7% #73 1.01 #199 0.35 #94
Turnovers 19.5% #334
Total Offense +1.5 #130

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #343 1.13 #146 +4.8 #43
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #33 0.76 #183 -2.4 #340
Three Pointers 42% #140 0.99 #141 +0.0 #183
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #100 +2.4 #101
Freethrows 0.33 #288 72% #133 0.24 #274
Second Chance 26.2% #45 1.03 #193 0.27 #73
Turnovers 15.4% #253
Total Defense +0.8 #141

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #204 -2.7% #20
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.0% #90 -2.0% #141
Possession Length 18.8 #325 17.2 #184
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #281 0.16 #141
Improvement +2.2 #69 -1.6 #274

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 11.9 12.4
.500 or above 89.8% 98.1% 86.8%
.500 or above in Conference 61.3% 86.4% 52.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Home) - 26.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 41 - 9
Quad 34 - 45 - 13
Quad 411 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 71 @Nevada L 77 - 78 20% -2  0 - 1 +10 +12 A+ F A+ -2 B C- C
 Wed, Nov 12 255 Long Beach St. W 69 - 66 84% -3  1 - 1 -5 -7 F A- F +1 A- D B-
 Sat, Nov 15 224 @Cal St. Fullerton W 85 - 73 61% +14  2 - 1 +12 +4 A+ F+ F +6 A+ B+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 109 @Florida Atlantic L 59 - 82 34% -11  2 - 2 -16 -6 C- D F -12 F A+ B-
 Mon, Nov 24 217 Stony Brook W 86 - 58 70% +17  3 - 2 +25 +16 A+ F+ F +10 A+ B+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 295 Jacksonville W 68 - 53 83% +7  4 - 2 +7 +3 D C+ C +6 A A+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 274 Sacramento St. W 68 - 54 86% +6  5 - 2 +5 -11 C- D- F +16 A+ A- C
 Wed, Dec 3 350 @Air Force W 80 - 65 86% +9  6 - 2 +6 +18 C+ A+ A- -10 C- F+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 64 @California L 61 - 67 19% -9  6 - 3 +6 +4 C B D- +1 C B- C+
 Tue, Dec 16 15 @BYU L 57 - 93 5% -18  6 - 4 -15 -8 D A- F -5 B- C D+
 Sun, Dec 21 249 Nicholls St. W 95 - 82 84% +7  7 - 4 +5 +16 A+ A+ F -12 F A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 28 202 @San Diego L 54 - 66 57% -9  7 - 5 0 - 1 -12 -14 F+ F F +1 A+ D- F
 Tue, Dec 30 170 @Loyola Marymount L 71 - 80 50% +1  7 - 6 0 - 2 -7 +2 D- B- D -9 F+ A+ F+
 Fri, Jan 2 184 Oregon St. W 84 - 53 75% +17  8 - 6 1 - 2 +26 +19 A+ B- C- +11 A+ C- C+
 Sun, Jan 4 283 Pepperdine W 74 - 69 87% +3  9 - 6 2 - 2 -5 +2 B A+ F -7 C- B- D
 Thu, Jan 8 232 @Portland L 89 - 90 OT 63% -4  9 - 7 2 - 3 -2 +12 B- C+ A- -14 D- F C
 Sat, Jan 10 202 San Diego W 77 - 70 77% -6  10 - 7 3 - 3 +1 +1 F C- A- +0 B- B C-
 Wed, Jan 14 46 @Santa Clara L 69 - 85 13% -4  10 - 8 3 - 4 -1 +7 A+ B F -9 C+ C F
 Sat, Jan 17 184 @Oregon St. W 81 - 64 53% +6  11 - 8 4 - 4 +18 +19 A+ C A- +1 B C D-
 Sat, Jan 24 124 Seattle W 56 - 54 61% +8  12 - 8 5 - 4 +1 -5 C C- D+ +6 C+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 232 Portland W 74 - 51 81% +15  13 - 8 6 - 4 +16 +6 C+ A+ D+ +13 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 97 @San Francisco L 82 - 87 28% -4  13 - 9 6 - 5 +3 +15 C+ A+ D+ -12 D C+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 46 Santa Clara L 72 - 78 27%
 Sat, Feb 7 283 @Pepperdine W 72 - 66 72%
 Wed, Feb 11 170 Loyola Marymount W 73 - 67 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 42 St. Mary's L 66 - 73 26%
 Wed, Feb 18 122 @Washington St. L 73 - 76 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 11 @Gonzaga L 65 - 85 3%
 Sat, Feb 28 97 San Francisco L 70 - 71 49%
Totals 16 - 13 9 - 9 +2 +2 C+ C+ D- +1 B- B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.4 8.7 16.6 7.0 0.8 33.5 4th
5th 0.1 5.4 16.1 4.3 0.2 26.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 12.9 6.0 0.2 20.6 6th
7th 0.1 5.2 6.3 0.4 12.1 7th
8th 0.8 3.8 0.6 5.2 8th
9th 1.0 0.5 1.4 9th
10th 0.2 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.0 11.0 25.7 31.2 21.1 7.8 1.2 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 1.2
11-7 7.8% 0.4% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 7.7
10-8 21.1% 0.7% 0.7% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 21.0
9-9 31.2% 0.3% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 31.1
8-10 25.7% 0.1% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 25.7
7-11 11.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 11.0
6-12 2.0% 2.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 12.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%