Radford
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.0 233
Results Rating -5.9 257
Pace 75.3 27
Improvement +5.5 20

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 195 C- C- C- B+ C+
Defense D+ 261 D+ D+ C+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 239 D+ 55% 258 -2.3 268
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 255 C- 37% 208 -1.7 267
Three Pointers 47% 59 C 34% 203 +2.7 89
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 135 C- -1.6 231
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 209
Second Chance C- 28.9% 222 C- 0.99 245 C- 0.29 237
Turnovers C- 17.7% 239
Freethrows B+ 0.36 32 C 73% 171 B+ 0.26 41
Total Offense C- -1.0 195

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 36% 338 B- 9.6% 110
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 11% 353 C+ 4.8% 166
Three Pointers D+ 80% 280 D+ 1.3% 281
Total D 49% 315 B- 4.9% 101

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 77 C- 59% 207 +2.9 281
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 278 C 38% 199 -1.1 103
Three Pointers 40% 219 D 37% 309 +1.3 241
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 298 D+ +2.3 268
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 279
Second Chance C- 32.2% 260 D+ 1.10 288 D+ 0.35 292
Turnovers C+ 17.8% 121
Freethrows D+ 0.33 258 C+ 72% 127 C- 0.24 247
Total Defense D+ -2.9 261

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 236 D+ 9.1% 244
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 275 C+ 6.0% 101
Three Pointers D+ 87% 274 C- 0.6% 219
Total D+ 59% 268 C- 5.2% 204

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.1 57 16.9 122
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 69 0.20 263
Improvement +2.0 #97 +3.5 #34

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 255 229 198
Results Rating Rank 298 251 221
Conference Record 8 - 8 9 - 7 10 - 6
Conference Finish 4 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 5% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 16.0
.500 or above 23% 30% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 3%
First Round4% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Home) - 74.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 30 - 50 - 11
Quad 414 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 362 Western Illinois W 80 - 75 94% +5  87% 1 - 0 F+ -16 B +6 C+ A B+ F -21 F+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 27 @North Carolina L 74 - 89 3% -11  5% 1 - 1 C+ +3 D+ -4 D- C- C+ A +9 A C+ C+
 Sat, Nov 15 153 Wright St. L 59 - 92 34% -13  2% 1 - 2 F -33 F -20 F F F+ F -12 F F+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 314 Cleveland St. L 82 - 87 70% +9  87% 1 - 3 D- -14 F -15 F D+ F+ C+ +2 C- B- B-
 Tue, Nov 18 92 @South Carolina L 58 - 87 12% -15  0% 1 - 4 F -20 F -14 F D F+ D -6 F+ F B
 Fri, Nov 21 108 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 81 33% -8  3% 1 - 5 D+ -7 C- -2 B D F D -5 F F+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 31 @SMU L 72 - 89 3% -11  0% 1 - 6 C +1 D -6 F B- A A- +8 A F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 241 Southern Miss L 75 - 82 63% -6  10% 1 - 7 D- -14 D- -7 F C- B+ D- -7 B- C- C
 Sun, Dec 7 355 St. Francis (PA) W 89 - 56 90% +17  97% 2 - 7 A- +15 B- +5 C A C+ A +10 B B+ B-
 Sun, Dec 14 363 Coppin St. W 107 - 77 94% +12  98% 3 - 7 B +9 A +13 A+ C D+ D- -7 F D+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 136 @William & Mary L 83 - 96 21% -3  33% 3 - 8 D -8 C- -2 D- B- C D -5 B F F+
 Sun, Dec 21 358 VMI W 97 - 90 91% +2  63% 4 - 8 D- -12 B +6 A- A- D- F -19 F F B
 Wed, Dec 31 297 @South Carolina Upstate W 76 - 69 54% +4  71% 5 - 8 1 - 0 C+ +2 D+ -3 C- C- F+ B +5 A- F+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 277 Presbyterian W 80 - 61 70% +6  85% 6 - 8 2 - 0 B +9 A +11 A F A C+ +1 B+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 223 UNC Asheville L 72 - 91 60% -9  0% 6 - 9 2 - 1 F -26 F+ -9 F F A+ F -16 F A- C+
 Wed, Jan 14 364 @Gardner-Webb W 89 - 80 86% +5  71% 7 - 9 3 - 1 D+ -7 B +6 D D A- F -12 D F F
 Sat, Jan 17 262 Longwood W 85 - 83 68% +11  98% 8 - 9 4 - 1 D+ -7 B +7 A- F+ B+ F -14 F F B-
 Wed, Jan 21 135 @Winthrop L 75 - 76 21% +2  67% 8 - 10 4 - 2 C+ +4 C+ +2 A+ D- F C+ +2 F A- B
 Fri, Jan 23 90 High Point L 83 - 93 25% -1  35% 8 - 11 4 - 3 D+ -7 C+ +2 A- D- D- F+ -9 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 29 268 @Charleston Southern W 84 - 75 47% +8  85% 9 - 11 5 - 3 B- +6 C- -2 C B F B+ +6 A- B- B-
 Sat, Jan 31 277 @Presbyterian W 93 - 84 2OT 48% +0  44% 10 - 11 6 - 3 B- +5 C+ +3 D- C- A C+ +2 F A A+
 Wed, Feb 4 135 Winthrop L 78 - 80 40% -3  11% 10 - 12 6 - 4 C- -3 C- -1 C- D+ C C- -2 F A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 90 @High Point L 77 - 86 11% -3  11% 10 - 13 6 - 5 C +0 D -6 F+ B- D A- +7 A- B+ A-
 Sat, Feb 14 268 Charleston Southern W 90 - 80 69% +14  93% 11 - 13 7 - 5 C +1 C+ +2 A+ B- F C- -2 D- B- C+
 Thu, Feb 19 364 Gardner-Webb W 82 - 70 94% +12  88% 12 - 13 8 - 5 D -10 D+ -3 F+ B- F+ D- -7 F+ F C
 Sat, Feb 21 223 @UNC Asheville L 73 - 74 OT 37% -1  26% 12 - 14 8 - 6 C -2 D+ -2 D D C- C+ +1 D+ B- F
 Thu, Feb 26 297 South Carolina Upstate W 81 - 74 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 262 @Longwood L 78 - 79 45%
Totals 13 - 15 9 - 7 -4 C- -1 C C- C+ D+ -3 C C B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ C- C C- 36% 31% 47% C+ C- C- C- C- C- B+ C B+ D+ C- C D D+ 43% 18% 40% D D+ C- D+ D+ C+ D+ C+ C-
1.07 55% 37% 34% -2 0 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 18% .36 73% .26 1.13 59% 38% 37% +2 +1 1.08 32% 1.1 .35 18% .33 72% .26
Nov
3		 Western Illinois B A+ A+ F C+ 41% 17% 41% C- C+ A- B- A B+ A+ F A+ F B F C- F 37% 30% 33% C F+ F F F C+ F C+ F+
1.29 82% 57% 24% +7 +1 1.17 43% 1.2 .53 11% .56 65% .36 1.21 47% 50% 33% -1 -1 0.98 47% 1.5 .72 18% .39 65% .25
Nov
11		 North Carolina D+ C F F D- 28% 25% 47% C D- B- F+ C- C+ A+ F A+ A C A+ C+ A+ 37% 17% 46% C A D- A- C+ C+ F A- F
0.91 53% 27% 25% -11 -1 0.78 27% 0.7 .20 13% .44 61% .27 1.09 63% 11% 33% -3 0 0.96 38% 0.9 .36 13% .70 63% .44
Nov
15		 Wright St. F F+ F F+ F 49% 14% 37% B+ F F+ F F F+ A- D- B F A+ F F F 40% 24% 36% B- F D+ F F+ C F B F
0.81 50% 29% 28% -9 +2 0.88 23% 0.2 .05 21% .37 67% .24 1.27 40% 50% 61% +10 0 1.22 33% 1.3 .42 17% .45 70% .31
Nov
16		 Cleveland St. F F A+ F F 40% 19% 41% C F C+ F+ D+ F+ A+ F A C+ C+ F D+ C 39% 9% 52% F C- D+ A B- B- F A+ F
1.00 48% 55% 21% -9 0 0.84 39% 0.9 .35 18% .45 67% .30 1.06 56% 50% 38% +3 +2 1.11 29% 0.8 .23 20% .70 65% .45
Nov
18		 South Carolina F F D+ D F 34% 18% 48% B- F D D D F+ A+ D+ A+ D F F A+ F 33% 21% 46% B- F+ C- F F B A C A
0.82 29% 33% 29% -14 0 0.74 23% 0.9 .21 20% .44 68% .30 1.23 76% 82% 25% +9 0 1.19 30% 1.9 .57 17% .25 80% .20
Nov
21		 UNC Wilmington C- F+ F A B 24% 14% 61% B B C- F+ D F A B A D F+ C+ F+ F 49% 13% 38% F F F B- F+ A+ C- A+ B
1.04 50% 29% 40% +2 0 1.06 25% 0.9 .22 20% .34 79% .27 1.16 65% 33% 39% +6 +2 1.17 45% 1.0 .45 21% .38 57% .22
Nov
24		 SMU D F F F F 29% 15% 56% B F F+ A+ B- A C+ A+ B+ A- C+ A+ C+ A+ 37% 16% 47% D- A B- F F+ A+ F D+ F
0.92 41% 22% 24% -15 0 0.71 21% 1.5 .32 14% .27 83% .22 1.14 61% 25% 35% 0 0 1.02 35% 1.4 .49 21% .52 78% .40
Dec
3		 Southern Miss D- F+ F D F 39% 9% 52% B F D+ C C- B+ A- A A+ D- B B- B- B- 33% 35% 33% B B- F A- C- C F F F
1.00 48% 0% 32% -9 +2 0.87 25% 1.0 .25 15% .42 78% .33 1.09 53% 33% 29% -6 -2 0.87 38% 0.9 .32 19% .52 84% .44
Dec
7		 St. Francis (PA) B- C C+ B+ C 35% 9% 56% C+ C C- A+ A C+ F C- F A A+ D- C+ B 31% 23% 46% C B B- A B+ B- A+ D+ A+
1.28 63% 40% 40% +7 +1 1.19 32% 1.6 .52 17% .24 71% .17 0.81 38% 42% 33% -6 -1 0.88 24% 0.7 .17 20% .13 71% .09
Dec
14		 Coppin St. A A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 9% 58% C+ A+ C- B C D+ D D D- D- C+ A+ F F 34% 18% 48% D- F C+ D- D+ A+ C- F D-
1.37 83% 60% 47% +22 +1 1.47 33% 1.2 .41 18% .33 71% .23 0.99 53% 11% 50% +5 0 1.12 27% 1.1 .30 29% .35 79% .27
Dec
18		 William & Mary C- F A+ D+ D- 28% 8% 63% C+ D- C B+ B- C B+ D+ B- D C- A+ A+ A- 60% 5% 35% F B F F F F+ F F F
1.03 41% 60% 32% -5 +1 0.93 31% 1.2 .36 19% .34 68% .23 1.19 62% 0% 25% -5 +4 1.00 33% 1.3 .44 14% .45 87% .39
Dec
21		 VMI B C+ A+ A+ A- 39% 11% 50% B A- C+ A+ A- D- A+ A A+ F C- F+ F+ F 38% 19% 44% C F D- F F B F F F
1.33 65% 60% 45% +14 +1 1.32 40% 1.3 .52 19% .68 80% .54 1.23 56% 44% 38% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.9 .57 19% .47 89% .42
Dec
31		 South Carolina Upstate D+ C D+ C- C- 44% 19% 38% C C- D+ C+ C- F+ A+ C A B A D+ A+ A+ 60% 9% 30% F A- F D+ F+ B- B- D- C
1.04 57% 33% 33% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.2 .33 19% .41 71% .29 0.95 44% 40% 25% -13 +3 0.83 36% 1.0 .36 19% .27 75% .20
Jan
7		 Presbyterian A C A+ A+ A+ 24% 27% 49% F A D- F F A C A+ A- C+ B+ B B B+ 47% 32% 21% C+ B+ D+ C C- F C- A+ A-
1.30 58% 54% 46% +13 -2 1.24 25% 0.7 .18 11% .29 88% .26 0.99 50% 33% 30% -7 -1 0.87 34% 1.0 .34 15% .34 50% .17
Jan
10		 UNC Asheville F+ A- F F F 46% 8% 46% A- F F D- F A+ A+ B A+ F F C F F 29% 29% 41% D- F C+ A+ A- C+ F A- F
0.98 67% 25% 13% -12 +2 0.83 21% 0.8 .17 10% .48 72% .35 1.24 80% 40% 52% +18 -2 1.35 28% 0.7 .19 18% .48 62% .30
Jan
14		 Gardner-Webb B D- F A+ D- 49% 13% 38% B D B+ F D A- A+ B- A+ F F A+ A+ D+ 52% 8% 40% F D B- F F F F F F
1.26 56% 14% 43% +1 +2 1.07 43% 0.7 .31 11% .46 76% .35 1.13 69% 0% 25% -3 +3 1.02 20% 1.7 .33 14% .43 81% .35
Jan
17		 Longwood B A+ F A A- 40% 16% 44% C A- D F F+ B+ A+ F+ A+ F C F F F 34% 26% 40% B- F F F F B- C- A C+
1.22 80% 25% 41% +11 +1 1.26 25% 0.6 .16 16% .53 65% .34 1.19 59% 46% 40% +6 -1 1.12 41% 1.4 .56 22% .33 67% .22
Jan
21		 Winthrop C+ B+ A A A 48% 5% 48% A+ A+ D- D D- F A+ C+ A+ C+ B+ D+ F F 44% 10% 46% D+ F A+ D+ A- B B- A+ A-
1.09 65% 50% 40% +8 +3 1.24 23% 1.0 .23 28% .48 75% .36 1.11 48% 40% 50% +7 +2 1.19 24% 1.1 .27 17% .34 63% .21
Jan
23		 High Point C+ B C+ A A- 43% 9% 47% B A- C F D- D- C+ C+ C+ F+ D- A+ F F 37% 8% 55% C- F A+ F A- F F C F
1.13 65% 40% 40% +8 +2 1.21 32% 0.8 .26 24% .32 72% .23 1.26 68% 25% 43% +10 +2 1.25 21% 1.3 .28 10% .50 76% .38
Jan
29		 Charleston Southern C- F A A+ C 45% 31% 24% C- C C- A+ B F A+ A A+ B+ C A+ A A+ 42% 6% 52% D- A- D A B- B- F B+ F
1.07 41% 47% 42% -2 -1 0.96 29% 1.3 .37 18% .51 79% .40 0.96 57% 0% 27% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.7 .23 20% .58 61% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Presbyterian C+ F B+ B- D 38% 27% 35% F+ D- D B- C- A A+ C+ A C+ F A+ D F 48% 31% 20% C F F+ A+ A A+ C- F D-
1.13 42% 47% 36% -3 -1 0.95 27% 1.1 .29 11% .40 69% .27 1.02 85% 18% 36% +7 -1 1.15 38% 0.5 .21 27% .35 76% .27
Feb
4		 Winthrop C- C D+ C- D+ 37% 14% 49% B- C- B+ F D+ C D B- D+ C- D F C- F 43% 13% 43% C- F A A+ A+ C+ C+ A B
1.09 57% 38% 32% -2 +1 1.00 37% 0.7 .27 17% .29 76% .22 1.12 61% 57% 35% +4 +1 1.13 26% 0.7 .17 15% .35 67% .23
Feb
7		 High Point D B- A+ F F 37% 8% 55% B F+ C B B- D A+ F A A- C+ A+ A+ A+ 59% 4% 37% F A- D A+ B+ A- F F F
0.97 63% 50% 21% -8 +2 0.90 33% 1.2 .38 24% .46 64% .30 1.08 59% 0% 22% -8 +4 0.94 35% 0.8 .30 18% .57 84% .47
Feb
14		 Charleston Southern C+ B- A+ A+ A+ 38% 26% 36% C- A+ C+ B+ B- F B- D- C C- A+ F F D 46% 3% 51% F D- A D B- C+ A+ A+ A+
1.17 60% 50% 42% +8 -1 1.17 31% 1.2 .36 17% .37 67% .25 1.04 44% 50% 47% +4 +3 1.15 22% 1.0 .22 19% .13 38% .05
Feb
19		 Gardner-Webb D+ A F D F+ 31% 10% 58% C+ F+ D+ A B- F+ A+ A+ A+ D- D- F A F+ 53% 18% 29% D+ F+ C- F F C C+ A+ B
1.19 73% 0% 32% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.3 .42 19% .43 92% .39 1.01 63% 44% 27% 0 +1 1.06 24% 1.6 .38 20% .25 57% .15
Feb
21		 UNC Asheville D+ F F A+ D 38% 25% 37% D D C F D C- A+ D- A+ C+ C- D C+ C- 43% 36% 21% D- D+ B- B- B- F A A+ A+
1.03 35% 31% 47% -3 -1 0.94 32% 0.7 .22 17% .51 63% .32 1.04 58% 45% 33% +2 -2 1.04 26% 0.9 .24 11% .22 50% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 5.6 51.5 33.8 90.9 3rd
4th 8.8 8.8 4th
5th 0.3 0.3 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 14.7 51.5 33.8 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 33.8% 5.7% 5.7% 15.2 0.1 1.4 0.5 31.9
9-7 51.5% 4.4% 4.4% 15.9 0.1 2.2 49.2
8-8 14.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.5 14.2
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 15.7 95.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 15.2 2.7 69.6 27.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.2%
Lose Out 7.5%