Sacred Heart
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.4 #276
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 #284
Pace 71.5 #107
Improvement +2.3 #84

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #186 C D+ D C- C
Defense #327 D- D+ D B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #348 1.12 #221 -5.3 #342
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #263 0.65 #323 -2.3 #294
Three Pointers 53% #11 1.04 #138 +6.9 #18
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #195 -0.8 #194
Freethrows 0.27 #290 77% #22 0.21 #219
Second Chance 26.9% #284 0.98 #246 0.26 #283
Turnovers 19.2% #319
Total Offense -0.8 #186

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #157 1.32 #347 -3.9 #308
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #350 0.76 #190 +2.5 #19
Three Pointers 46% #43 1.10 #298 -4.7 #342
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #345 -6.1 #344
Freethrows 0.27 #76 72% #196 0.20 #70
Second Chance 32.7% #271 1.09 #271 0.36 #285
Turnovers 14.2% #321
Total Defense -5.6 #327

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #207 1.8% #330
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #197 10.0% #337
Possession Length 17.0 #139 17.0 #150
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #175 0.21 #316
Improvement +1.5 #100 +0.8 #135

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.0% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 7.3% 10.7% 2.1%
.500 or above in Conference 56.1% 71.3% 32.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.5% 1.5% 1.3%
First Round1.8% 2.4% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 60.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 411 - 1014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 113 @Duquesne L 80 - 92 12% -7  0 - 1 -6 +6 D C- B- -11 A F F
 Tue, Nov 11 32 @Villanova L 60 - 94 2% -21  0 - 2 -17 -1 C+ B- F -18 F D A
 Sat, Nov 15 208 @Queens L 64 - 81 27% -13  0 - 3 -17 -13 F+ F D- -4 F C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 323 Holy Cross W 79 - 66 74% +9  1 - 3 +0 +4 B F C- -3 F+ C A+
 Mon, Nov 24 300 @Central Connecticut St. L 106 - 108 OT 45% -2  1 - 4 -7 +15 B+ C+ D+ -22 F F D-
 Sat, Nov 29 112 @Penn St. L 59 - 90 12% -21  1 - 5 -25 -19 D- F F -2 D- F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 289 @Mount St. Mary's W 87 - 80 42% +2  2 - 5 1 - 0 +3 +18 D A+ D -15 F F F
 Sun, Dec 7 231 Iona L 69 - 81 53% -4  2 - 6 1 - 1 -19 -6 B D- F -13 D+ D- D-
 Sat, Dec 13 324 @NJIT W 65 - 49 53% +4  3 - 6 +9 -2 D- C+ D +13 A- B+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 314 @Umass Lowell L 82 - 87 49% +0  3 - 7 -11 +3 B+ D- F -14 F C F
 Fri, Dec 19 229 Dartmouth W 85 - 63 52% +8  4 - 7 +15 +4 F A+ C +10 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 155 @Towson L 47 - 72 19% -9  4 - 8 -22 -19 F C- F -5 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 201 Merrimack L 72 - 80 47% -8  4 - 9 1 - 2 -14 +3 B D C- -17 F C D
 Fri, Jan 2 349 @Niagara L 61 - 64 60% -9  4 - 10 1 - 3 -12 -3 F C F -10 F B+ D
 Sun, Jan 4 345 @Canisius L 78 - 82 59% +4  4 - 11 1 - 4 -13 +5 C C- D+ -17 D- F D-
 Fri, Jan 9 161 Marist L 72 - 76 38% +2  4 - 12 1 - 5 -7 +10 A- B D- -18 F F D-
 Sun, Jan 11 186 Quinnipiac L 60 - 70 44% -0  4 - 13 1 - 6 -15 -9 D D+ F -7 D+ A F
 Wed, Jan 14 174 @Siena W 86 - 80 22% +4  5 - 13 2 - 6 +8 +17 F+ A+ A+ -9 C+ D F
 Mon, Jan 19 352 @Rider W 105 - 85 63% +12  6 - 13 3 - 6 +10 +17 A+ F C+ -9 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 22 345 Canisius W 69 - 66 79% -2  7 - 13 4 - 6 -12 -8 C F D -3 F A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 349 Niagara W 71 - 70 79% -5  8 - 13 5 - 6 -14 -4 C+ F B- -10 F F B
 Fri, Jan 30 186 @Quinnipiac W 98 - 91 24% +1  9 - 13 6 - 6 +8 +20 A- D- A+ -12 D F+ F+
 Sun, Feb 1 201 @Merrimack L 58 - 75 26% -8  9 - 14 6 - 7 -17 -7 D+ F F -11 B F F
 Thu, Feb 5 272 Fairfield W 80 - 77 61%
 Sat, Feb 7 327 @Manhattan W 82 - 81 53%
 Fri, Feb 13 235 St. Peter's W 74 - 73 52%
 Sun, Feb 15 352 Rider W 80 - 71 82%
 Fri, Feb 20 272 @Fairfield L 77 - 80 39%
 Sun, Feb 22 161 @Marist L 67 - 76 19%
 Fri, Feb 27 289 Mount St. Mary's W 77 - 73 64%
Totals 13 - 17 10 - 10 -6 -1 C D+ D -6 D- D+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.4 2.5 4th
5th 0.3 3.7 3.4 0.1 7.5 5th
6th 0.8 7.6 11.1 1.5 21.0 6th
7th 0.3 7.2 15.4 4.5 0.1 27.4 7th
8th 0.1 3.2 12.4 4.5 0.1 20.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 7.3 5.1 0.2 14.0 9th
10th 0.3 2.4 2.7 0.3 5.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.5 4.1 13.5 25.8 28.0 19.9 7.0 1.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.2% 6.6% 6.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-8 7.0% 7.3% 7.3% 15.8 0.1 0.4 6.5
11-9 19.9% 3.9% 3.9% 15.9 0.1 0.7 19.1
10-10 28.0% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7 27.4
9-11 25.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 25.5
8-12 13.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.4
7-13 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 15.9 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 0.4%