San Diego
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 #222
Expected Predictive Rating -5.8 #256
Pace 74.9 #46
Improvement +3.7 #29

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #210 C C C- D+ C
Defense #222 C- F A- D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #310 1.20 #123 -2.1 #255
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #218 0.70 #255 -1.3 #243
Three Pointers 48% #47 1.02 #181 +3.8 #63
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #173 +0.3 #172
Freethrows 15.1 #293 74% #146 11.2 #269
Second Chance 28.7% #246 1.13 #87 0.32 #162
Turnovers 17.6% #241
Total Offense -1.6 #210

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #147 1.25 #289 -2.6 #267
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #260 0.80 #254 +0.6 #155
Three Pointers 43% #135 0.94 #90 +0.9 #149
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #220 -1.2 #218
Freethrows 20.2 #312 70% #90 14.1 #70
Second Chance 36.5% #343 1.13 #291 0.41 #343
Turnovers 20.1% #30
Total Defense -1.6 #222

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #204 0.9% #259
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.7% #165 1.4% #209
Possession Length 17.4 #181 16.5 #63
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #68 0.27 #358
Improvement +0.8 #136 +2.9 #36

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 13.0 13.0
.500 or above 1.2% 4.3% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 15.6% 21.2% 14.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.1% 7.4% 9.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 16.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 51 - 9
Quad 33 - 74 - 16
Quad 46 - 410 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 187 Idaho St. L 68 - 71 57%  -7  0 - 1 -8 -3 C D C- -6 B- D D
 Wed, Nov 12 195 Idaho W 78 - 74 58%  +5  1 - 1 -1 +5 A+ B- F -6 D+ C- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 246 Grambling St. W 78 - 68 67%  +7  2 - 1 +2 -2 F F C- +3 A+ D C
 Fri, Nov 21 295 UC Riverside L 71 - 85 76%  -10  2 - 2 -25 -5 F B- F -20 F F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 147 California Baptist L 61 - 76 35%  -2  2 - 3 -14 -11 C- F D -3 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 30 262 @Long Beach St. L 72 - 76 49%  +1  2 - 4 -7 +5 B- A+ F -13 D- F F
 Fri, Dec 5 221 @San Jose St. L 69 - 86 38%  -18  2 - 5 -17 -8 F C A+ -8 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 9 46 USC L 81 - 94 15%  -5  2 - 6 -5 +3 D+ B C -7 F D A+
 Sat, Dec 13 302 Northern Arizona W 78 - 69 77%  +6  3 - 6 -2 +4 B A+ F -6 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 108 @UC San Diego L 71 - 82 17%  +7 
 Mon, Dec 22 47 @Washington L 56 - 86 6%  -16  3 - 7 -16 -14 D+ F F -1 A- F B-
 Sun, Dec 28 144 Pacific W 66 - 54 46%  +9  4 - 7 1 - 0 +10 -2 F A- B+ +13 A+ A A+
 Tue, Dec 30 10 Gonzaga L 93 - 99 4%  -10  4 - 8 1 - 1 +11 +16 A+ C+ A+ -4 C+ F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 100 @San Francisco L 64 - 74 15%  -4  4 - 9 1 - 2 -2 -6 C+ F C- +4 A D C+
 Sun, Jan 4 61 @Santa Clara L 70 - 98 9%  -12  4 - 10 1 - 3 -16 -3 B+ F C- -12 D+ F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 274 Pepperdine W 83 - 63 73%  +12  5 - 10 2 - 3 +10 +11 A+ C+ C+ +0 C B A-
 Sat, Jan 10 144 @Pacific L 72 - 79 25% 
 Thu, Jan 15 120 @Seattle L 69 - 78 21% 
 Wed, Jan 21 145 Washington St. L 76 - 77 46% 
 Sat, Jan 24 61 Santa Clara L 76 - 85 19% 
 Wed, Jan 28 274 @Pepperdine W 74 - 73 52% 
 Sat, Jan 31 182 Oregon St. W 74 - 73 55% 
 Wed, Feb 4 41 @St. Mary's L 65 - 84 4% 
 Sat, Feb 7 122 @Loyola Marymount L 69 - 78 21% 
 Wed, Feb 11 238 Portland W 80 - 76 65% 
 Sun, Feb 15 100 San Francisco L 72 - 77 31% 
 Sat, Feb 21 122 Loyola Marymount L 72 - 75 40% 
 Wed, Feb 25 182 @Oregon St. L 71 - 76 34% 
 Sat, Feb 28 238 @Portland L 77 - 79 43% 
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 11 -3 -2 C C C- -2 C- F A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 3.7 1.6 0.1 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 5.2 3.2 0.3 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.4 5.2 5.8 0.7 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.1 3.8 8.5 2.1 0.0 14.5 8th
9th 0.0 2.6 9.7 4.2 0.1 16.7 9th
10th 0.1 2.4 9.2 5.6 0.4 17.6 10th
11th 0.2 2.0 6.0 4.4 0.4 12.9 11th
12th 0.7 1.9 1.1 0.2 3.8 12th
Total 0.8 3.9 9.5 16.4 19.9 19.2 14.7 8.9 4.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 13.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 1.8% 1.8
10-8 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 4.4
9-9 8.9% 8.9
8-10 14.7% 14.7
7-11 19.2% 19.2
6-12 19.9% 19.9
5-13 16.4% 16.4
4-14 9.5% 9.5
3-15 3.9% 3.9
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%