San Diego
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.6 #202
Expected Predictive Rating -3.7 #224
Pace 74.6 #42
Improvement +3.5 #45

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #188 C C C- D C-
Defense #240 C- D B D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #321 1.21 #106 -2.3 #263
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.72 #228 -0.5 #202
Three Pointers 47% #59 1.04 #144 +3.6 #63
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #148 +0.8 #147
Freethrows 0.24 #343 75% #81 0.18 #322
Second Chance 29.8% #209 1.02 #187 0.30 #196
Turnovers 17.4% #230
Total Offense -0.8 #188

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #146 1.25 #290 -2.6 #273
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #279 0.80 #266 +0.8 #128
Three Pointers 43% #127 0.97 #115 +0.1 #176
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #237 -1.7 #235
Freethrows 0.34 #300 71% #85 0.24 #272
Second Chance 35.1% #327 1.07 #262 0.38 #325
Turnovers 19.5% #44
Total Defense -1.8 #240

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #235 1.0% #267
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.2% #140 2.4% #223
Possession Length 17.2 #172 16.3 #40
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #68 0.24 #352
Improvement +1.1 #123 +2.4 #56

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.2% 2.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 8.0% 28.4% 6.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.0% 2.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 4.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 34 - 55 - 14
Quad 46 - 511 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 227 Idaho St. L 68 - 71 65% -7  0 - 1 -10 -3 C D C -7 C+ D+ D+
 Wed, Nov 12 185 Idaho W 78 - 74 58% +5  1 - 1 -1 +6 A+ B- F+ -6 C- D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 287 Grambling St. W 78 - 68 77% +7  2 - 1 -0 -2 D F D+ +1 A D- C-
 Fri, Nov 21 291 UC Riverside L 71 - 85 78% -10  2 - 2 -25 -4 F B- D+ -21 F F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 134 California Baptist L 61 - 76 34% -2  2 - 3 -13 -10 C F D -3 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 30 255 @Long Beach St. L 72 - 76 49% +1  2 - 4 -6 +6 B- A+ F -13 D F F
 Fri, Dec 5 242 @San Jose St. L 69 - 86 46% -18  2 - 5 -19 -9 F C+ B+ -8 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 9 48 USC L 81 - 94 16% -5  2 - 6 -5 +4 C C+ C -8 F D A+
 Sat, Dec 13 313 Northern Arizona W 78 - 69 81% +6  3 - 6 -3 +1 B- A+ F -3 D+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 138 @UC San Diego W 82 - 80 25% +7  4 - 6 +6 +21 B A B- -14 D+ F+ D+
 Mon, Dec 22 41 @Washington L 56 - 86 6% -16  4 - 7 -15 -13 C- D- F -1 A F C+
 Sun, Dec 28 125 Pacific W 66 - 54 43% +9  5 - 7 1 - 0 +11 -1 F+ B+ B+ +14 A A A+
 Tue, Dec 30 11 Gonzaga L 93 - 99 5% -10  5 - 8 1 - 1 +11 +17 A+ C+ A+ -6 C- F A
 Fri, Jan 2 97 @San Francisco L 64 - 74 16% -4  5 - 9 1 - 2 -2 -7 C F C- +5 A D C
 Sun, Jan 4 46 @Santa Clara L 70 - 98 6% -12  5 - 10 1 - 3 -13 -1 B F C -11 C- F B
 Thu, Jan 8 283 Pepperdine W 83 - 63 76% +12  6 - 10 2 - 3 +10 +11 A+ C+ C -0 C B B+
 Sat, Jan 10 125 @Pacific L 70 - 77 23% +6  6 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -0 C C- D+ -1 A+ C D-
 Thu, Jan 15 124 @Seattle L 64 - 75 23% -6  6 - 12 2 - 5 -6 -2 C- D- C- -3 F+ B- B
 Wed, Jan 21 122 Washington St. W 96 - 92 42% +8  7 - 12 3 - 5 +4 +21 A+ A- A+ -17 C+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 46 Santa Clara L 73 - 85 15% -14  7 - 13 3 - 6 -3 -1 C- F A+ -2 F A A+
 Wed, Jan 28 283 @Pepperdine W 92 - 88 OT 56% -3  8 - 13 4 - 6 -0 +8 D- A B- -8 D+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 31 184 Oregon St. L 76 - 78 OT 58% +1  8 - 14 4 - 7 -7 -10 C D+ F +4 C A C+
 Wed, Feb 4 42 @St. Mary's L 66 - 83 5%
 Sat, Feb 7 170 @Loyola Marymount L 73 - 78 32%
 Wed, Feb 11 232 Portland W 81 - 77 66%
 Sun, Feb 15 97 San Francisco L 74 - 79 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 170 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 75 54%
 Wed, Feb 25 184 @Oregon St. L 73 - 77 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 232 @Portland L 78 - 80 44%
Totals 11 - 18 7 - 11 -3 -1 C C C- -2 C- D B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 0.9 0.1 2.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 3.2 0.3 5.8 5th
6th 1.3 7.7 1.7 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.3 8.6 6.5 0.3 15.7 7th
8th 0.0 5.1 14.5 1.7 0.0 21.4 8th
9th 1.7 16.5 4.6 0.0 22.9 9th
10th 0.2 7.5 5.0 0.1 12.7 10th
11th 3.0 4.6 0.2 7.8 11th
12th 0.3 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 3.5 13.9 27.2 29.2 18.4 6.7 1.2 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 1.2% 1.2
9-9 6.7% 6.7
8-10 18.4% 18.4
7-11 29.2% 29.2
6-12 27.2% 27.2
5-13 13.9% 13.9
4-14 3.5% 3.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.5%