San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.3 #52
Expected Predictive Rating +11.2 #53
Pace 68.9 #193
Improvement +0.4 #158

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #67 B+ B C- C+ D
Defense #58 B+ C+ A C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #172 1.36 #20 +3.9 #61
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #58 0.65 #299 +1.2 #112
Three Pointers 35% #309 1.22 #6 +0.4 #167
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #50 +5.4 #49
Freethrows 18.1 #147 74% #140 13.4 #133
Second Chance 35.0% #67 1.07 #154 0.37 #75
Turnovers 17.5% #239
Total Offense +5.2 #67

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #345 1.08 #85 +6.0 #24
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #279 0.61 #23 +2.4 #31
Three Pointers 53% #9 0.95 #108 -4.1 #324
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #55 +4.4 #55
Freethrows 15.5 #88 76% #329 11.9 #218
Second Chance 29.0% #117 1.05 #199 0.30 #143
Turnovers 20.4% #24
Total Defense +5.1 #58

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #286 -0.4% #133
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.5% #26 -8.2% #53
Possession Length 16.1 #73 18.2 #319
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #60 0.13 #52
Improvement +0.0 #183 +0.4 #161

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.3% 34.6% 21.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.5% 20.7% 9.3%
Average Seed 10.0 9.9 10.5
.500 or above 98.4% 98.9% 94.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 98.7% 93.5%
Conference Champion 29.1% 30.8% 13.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.2% 8.5% 5.4%
First Round29.2% 30.3% 18.8%
Second Round11.5% 12.2% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 2.5% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 90.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 6
Quad 26 - 38 - 8
Quad 37 - 214 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 262 Long Beach St. W 77 - 45 95%  +13  1 - 0 +23 -2 D- A+ F +25 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 187 Idaho St. W 73 - 57 92%  +11  2 - 0 +11 +5 A+ F F +8 B- B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 137 Troy L 107 - 108 2OT 86%  -3  2 - 1 -3 +11 B- A+ F -13 B+ F F
 Mon, Nov 24 1 Michigan L 54 - 94 7%  -18  2 - 2 -13 -8 B- F F -3 A F A-
 Tue, Nov 25 65 Oregon W 97 - 80 56%  +10  3 - 2 +26 +28 A+ A+ F -2 D- A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 32 Baylor L 81 - 91 36%  -4  3 - 3 +4 +12 A+ F B -8 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 101 Utah Valley W 77 - 66 79%  +6  4 - 3 +13 +6 C+ A+ C +7 A- A- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 231 Lamar W 89 - 71 94%  +10  5 - 3 +11 +8 B C- B- +2 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 334 Air Force W 81 - 58 98%  +8  6 - 3 1 - 0 +9 +12 A A+ D+ -1 C+ D A-
 Sat, Dec 20 2 Arizona L 45 - 68 11%  -5  6 - 4 +1 -10 F F A+ +9 A+ B B
 Tue, Dec 30 221 @San Jose St. W 81 - 68 84%  +4  7 - 4 2 - 0 +13 +4 B- A- D+ +9 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 63 Boise St. W 110 - 107 3OT 67%  +6  8 - 4 3 - 0 +9 +13 A+ A+ B- -5 C A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 6 90 @Nevada W 73 - 68 54%  -2  9 - 4 4 - 0 +14 +11 C+ A+ D- +4 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 157 Fresno St. W 80 - 66 90% 
 Wed, Jan 14 95 @Wyoming W 75 - 73 56% 
 Sat, Jan 17 56 New Mexico W 77 - 73 64% 
 Wed, Jan 21 83 @Grand Canyon W 72 - 71 51% 
 Sat, Jan 24 142 @UNLV W 80 - 74 72% 
 Wed, Jan 28 94 Colorado St. W 76 - 68 76% 
 Sat, Jan 31 35 @Utah St. L 73 - 79 28% 
 Tue, Feb 3 95 Wyoming W 78 - 70 76% 
 Sat, Feb 7 334 @Air Force W 76 - 58 95% 
 Sat, Feb 14 90 Nevada W 75 - 68 73% 
 Tue, Feb 17 83 Grand Canyon W 75 - 69 72% 
 Sat, Feb 21 94 @Colorado St. W 73 - 71 56% 
 Wed, Feb 25 35 Utah St. L 75 - 76 49% 
 Sat, Feb 28 56 @New Mexico L 74 - 76 41% 
 Tue, Mar 3 63 @Boise St. L 69 - 71 44% 
 Fri, Mar 6 142 UNLV W 83 - 71 87% 
Totals 19 - 10 14 - 6 +10 +5 B+ B C- +5 B+ C+ A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 4.8 8.4 8.0 4.9 1.7 0.3 29.1 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 8.1 10.2 5.8 1.4 0.2 27.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 6.4 7.2 2.1 0.1 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.9 4.8 1.1 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 3.6 0.9 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.8 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.1 6.0 9.8 14.1 17.5 17.0 14.3 9.4 5.0 1.7 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
18-2 97.0% 4.9    4.5 0.4
17-3 85.0% 8.0    6.2 1.8 0.0
16-4 58.4% 8.4    4.5 3.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 28.1% 4.8    1.3 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.6% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.1% 29.1 18.5 8.3 2.0 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 40.7% 59.3% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.7% 93.8% 38.8% 55.0% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 89.9%
18-2 5.0% 84.4% 32.8% 51.6% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.8 76.7%
17-3 9.4% 66.5% 28.1% 38.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.2 1.5 3.1 53.4%
16-4 14.3% 49.8% 22.6% 27.2% 10.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.6 3.2 0.1 7.2 35.1%
15-5 17.0% 35.8% 18.8% 16.9% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.9 0.1 10.9 20.9%
14-6 17.5% 23.8% 15.2% 8.5% 10.8 0.1 0.8 3.2 0.1 13.4 10.1%
13-7 14.1% 14.8% 11.3% 3.5% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 0.2 12.0 4.0%
12-8 9.8% 9.6% 8.7% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.8 0.1 8.9 1.0%
11-9 6.0% 6.7% 6.4% 0.3% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 5.6 0.4%
10-10 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 11.5 0.1 0.1 3.0
9-11 1.2% 4.1% 4.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
8-12 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 13.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 33.3% 17.1% 16.2% 10.0 66.7 19.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.5 4.5 13.6 36.4 22.7 18.2 4.5