San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#38
Expected Predictive Rating+16.5#22
Pace65.7#259
Improvement+0.6#150

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#77
First Shot+2.1#113
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#88
Layup/Dunks+1.3#135
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#110
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#174
Freethrows-0.4#207
Improvement+0.5#137

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#12
First Shot+9.8#4
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#313
Layups/Dunks+10.1#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#236
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#201
Freethrows+0.2#173
Improvement+0.1#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 1.7% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 5.5% 7.6% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 12.7% 16.8% 5.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.6% 68.7% 48.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 46.8% 54.7% 33.9%
Average Seed 8.5 8.2 9.3
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 99.2% 96.2%
Conference Champion 41.3% 51.6% 22.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.5% 10.3% 10.8%
First Round56.4% 63.6% 43.2%
Second Round30.1% 35.4% 20.3%
Sweet Sixteen10.5% 12.9% 6.0%
Elite Eight4.1% 5.0% 2.3%
Final Four1.5% 1.8% 0.8%
Championship Game0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Utah St. (Home) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 25 - 39 - 7
Quad 38 - 116 - 8
Quad 46 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 90   UC San Diego W 63-58 79%     1 - 0 +8.2 -4.4 +12.9
  Nov 18, 2024 4   Gonzaga L 67-80 31%     1 - 1 +3.9 +0.8 +2.9
  Nov 26, 2024 46   Creighton W 71-53 53%     2 - 1 +28.9 +8.1 +22.1
  Nov 27, 2024 23   Oregon L 68-78 40%     2 - 2 +4.5 +4.6 -0.4
  Nov 30, 2024 5   Houston W 73-70 OT 23%     3 - 2 +22.7 +18.0 +4.9
  Dec 04, 2024 273   @ Fresno St. W 84-62 91%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +18.8 +4.4 +12.3
  Dec 07, 2024 316   San Diego W 74-57 98%     5 - 2 +5.1 -5.1 +9.4
  Dec 11, 2024 158   California Baptist W 81-75 91%     6 - 2 +3.0 +15.6 -11.7
  Dec 21, 2024 128   California W 71-50 82%     7 - 2 +22.9 +0.2 +23.8
  Dec 28, 2024 47   Utah St. W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 04, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 08, 2025 269   Air Force W 74-53 97%    
  Jan 11, 2025 64   @ New Mexico W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 14, 2025 97   Colorado St. W 72-62 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 106   UNLV W 71-61 83%    
  Jan 22, 2025 269   @ Air Force W 71-56 91%    
  Jan 25, 2025 60   @ Nevada L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 28, 2025 162   San Jose St. W 76-61 91%    
  Feb 01, 2025 159   Wyoming W 74-59 91%    
  Feb 08, 2025 97   @ Colorado St. W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 11, 2025 162   @ San Jose St. W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 15, 2025 58   Boise St. W 71-66 69%    
  Feb 18, 2025 273   Fresno St. W 81-60 97%    
  Feb 22, 2025 47   @ Utah St. L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 25, 2025 64   New Mexico W 78-71 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 159   @ Wyoming W 71-62 78%    
  Mar 04, 2025 106   @ UNLV W 68-64 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 60   Nevada W 69-63 69%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 5.3 10.7 11.5 7.9 3.8 1.0 41.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.9 8.8 5.2 1.3 0.1 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 4.6 6.1 2.3 0.2 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.2 1.3 0.1 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.7 0.9 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.7 7.5 11.0 14.4 16.4 16.1 12.8 8.0 3.8 1.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
19-1 100.0% 3.8    3.8 0.0
18-2 98.6% 7.9    7.5 0.4
17-3 89.9% 11.5    9.3 2.1 0.1
16-4 66.3% 10.7    6.1 4.0 0.6 0.0
15-5 32.1% 5.3    1.5 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-6 7.4% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 41.3% 41.3 29.2 9.4 2.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.0% 99.8% 58.3% 41.5% 2.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
19-1 3.8% 99.7% 50.6% 49.1% 4.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
18-2 8.0% 97.6% 46.5% 51.1% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 95.4%
17-3 12.8% 93.3% 40.1% 53.2% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 88.8%
16-4 16.1% 82.9% 33.7% 49.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.5 4.0 2.1 0.0 2.7 74.3%
15-5 16.4% 67.2% 28.0% 39.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.1 3.8 0.1 5.4 54.4%
14-6 14.4% 47.4% 21.0% 26.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 3.8 0.2 7.6 33.4%
13-7 11.0% 32.1% 15.9% 16.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 0.2 7.5 19.2%
12-8 7.5% 20.1% 12.9% 7.3% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.2 6.0 8.4%
11-9 4.7% 12.4% 9.8% 2.6% 11.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 4.1 2.9%
10-10 2.5% 8.1% 7.2% 0.9% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3 0.9%
9-11 1.1% 5.2% 4.9% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.4%
8-12 0.5% 4.7% 4.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 13.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.1% 3.3% 3.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 61.6% 27.8% 33.8% 8.5 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.7 3.2 4.0 5.0 6.4 9.3 13.2 14.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 38.4 46.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 2.1 31.2 39.4 21.3 7.1 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 3.3 6.3 13.9 36.7 31.6 11.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 98.9% 3.5 7.7 16.5 23.1 30.8 15.4 5.5