San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.9 #43
Expected Predictive Rating +11.6 #52
Pace 70.5 #135
Improvement +3.0 #60

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #91 B- C+ C C+ D
Defense #16 B+ B+ A- C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #193 1.33 #26 +2.9 #83
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #41 0.70 #276 +2.3 #67
Three Pointers 33% #324 1.17 #19 -1.3 #228
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #69 +3.9 #69
Freethrows 0.31 #164 76% #62 0.23 #123
Second Chance 31.2% #160 1.12 #66 0.35 #98
Turnovers 16.7% #176
Total Offense +3.3 #91

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #354 1.06 #69 +7.1 #14
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #218 0.59 #5 +2.2 #33
Three Pointers 52% #5 0.94 #73 -3.7 #326
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #38 +5.6 #37
Freethrows 0.29 #167 73% #207 0.21 #167
Second Chance 28.1% #85 0.82 #7 0.23 #19
Turnovers 21.0% #17
Total Defense +8.6 #16

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #311 -1.0% #89
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.0% #40 -9.9% #36
Possession Length 15.8 #44 18.1 #308
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #89 0.11 #26
Improvement -2.0 #300 +5.0 #8

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.1% 51.6% 40.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.7% 37.1% 27.1%
Average Seed 9.9 9.9 10.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 44.1% 47.5% 23.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.2% 13.1% 14.1%
First Round43.6% 45.2% 33.4%
Second Round17.2% 18.2% 11.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 3.8% 2.3%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.0% 0.7%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

Next Game: Wyoming (Home) - 86.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 6
Quad 26 - 29 - 8
Quad 37 - 116 - 9
Quad 46 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 255 Long Beach St. W 77 - 45 96% +13  1 - 0 +24 -1 D A+ F +25 A+ A- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 227 Idaho St. W 73 - 57 95% +11  2 - 0 +9 +5 A+ F F+ +7 C+ B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 140 Troy L 107 - 108 2OT 89% -3  2 - 1 -3 +9 C+ A F -12 C+ D D
 Mon, Nov 24 1 Michigan L 54 - 94 11% -18  2 - 2 -15 -9 C- F F+ -3 B D B-
 Tue, Nov 25 82 Oregon W 97 - 80 69% +10  3 - 2 +24 +26 A+ A+ F -3 D A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 47 Baylor L 81 - 91 51% -4  3 - 3 +2 +11 A- D- B -10 D- A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 100 Utah Valley W 77 - 66 83% +6  4 - 3 +13 +6 C A- B- +7 B B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 197 Lamar W 89 - 71 94% +10  5 - 3 +13 +8 B- C C+ +3 C- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 350 Air Force W 81 - 58 99% +8  6 - 3 1 - 0 +8 +11 B A+ D -1 C+ D- B
 Sat, Dec 20 2 Arizona L 45 - 68 13% -5  6 - 4 +1 -11 F D- A+ +9 A+ C+ B+
 Tue, Dec 30 242 @San Jose St. W 81 - 68 89% +4  7 - 4 2 - 0 +11 +2 C A- D- +9 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 62 Boise St. W 110 - 107 3OT 72% +6  8 - 4 3 - 0 +9 +11 A- A B -2 C+ A+ B
 Tue, Jan 6 71 @Nevada W 73 - 68 53% -2  9 - 4 4 - 0 +16 +11 C+ A+ D- +5 A+ D- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 146 Fresno St. W 71 - 52 90% +15  10 - 4 5 - 0 +17 -4 F A+ A +19 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 14 111 @Wyoming W 74 - 57 70% +11  11 - 4 6 - 0 +24 +9 B C- A +16 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 45 New Mexico W 83 - 79 62% +3  12 - 4 7 - 0 +13 +7 A C- C +6 B+ B- A+
 Wed, Jan 21 65 @Grand Canyon L 69 - 70 51% -2  12 - 5 7 - 1 +11 +5 D+ C+ A- +6 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 128 @UNLV W 82 - 71 75% +4  13 - 5 8 - 1 +16 +13 A+ F C- +3 D B+ B
 Wed, Jan 28 103 Colorado St. W 73 - 50 83% +10  14 - 5 9 - 1 +25 +9 A- B+ F+ +19 A+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 31 38 @Utah St. L 66 - 71 33% +2  14 - 6 9 - 2 +12 -4 C F A +16 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Feb 3 111 Wyoming W 77 - 66 86%
 Sat, Feb 7 350 @Air Force W 77 - 56 97%
 Sat, Feb 14 71 Nevada W 74 - 67 73%
 Tue, Feb 17 65 Grand Canyon W 73 - 67 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 103 @Colorado St. W 71 - 67 65%
 Wed, Feb 25 38 Utah St. W 74 - 73 55%
 Sat, Feb 28 45 @New Mexico L 74 - 77 40%
 Tue, Mar 3 62 @Boise St. L 70 - 71 50%
 Fri, Mar 6 128 UNLV W 82 - 69 89%
Totals 20 - 9 15 - 5 +12 +3 B- C+ C +9 B+ B+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 6.3 18.7 14.7 4.2 44.1 1st
2nd 0.1 4.4 15.7 7.1 0.4 27.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 8.9 4.6 0.1 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.7 4.1 0.1 8.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.3 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 7.5 18.0 26.7 26.0 15.0 4.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 4.2    4.2
17-3 97.4% 14.7    12.1 2.6
16-4 72.1% 18.7    7.8 9.0 1.9 0.0
15-5 23.6% 6.3    0.6 2.4 2.6 0.7 0.0
14-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 44.1% 44.1 24.7 14.1 4.5 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 4.2% 91.3% 30.8% 60.5% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.4 87.5%
17-3 15.0% 79.4% 30.9% 48.5% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.6 3.9 2.0 3.1 70.2%
16-4 26.0% 60.1% 26.6% 33.5% 10.1 0.1 0.7 2.8 6.0 6.0 0.0 10.4 45.7%
15-5 26.7% 45.2% 21.7% 23.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.7 7.1 0.1 14.6 30.1%
14-6 18.0% 27.6% 15.0% 12.6% 10.7 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.4 0.1 13.0 14.8%
13-7 7.5% 18.3% 11.9% 6.4% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.1 6.1 7.3%
12-8 2.1% 12.8% 10.2% 2.7% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.8 3.0%
11-9 0.4% 4.7% 1.2% 3.5% 11.0 0.0 0.4 3.5%
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 50.1% 22.4% 27.7% 9.9 49.9 35.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 5.9 1.9 10.4 24.3 35.9 18.1 8.1 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 90.7% 8.4 2.2 17.5 30.6 25.7 13.7 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 85.7% 8.8 0.4 8.6 23.7 33.9 15.9 3.3