San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#52
Expected Predictive Rating+12.9#42
Pace65.7#247
Improvement-4.2#331

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#135
First Shot+0.0#174
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#103
Layup/Dunks+0.5#157
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#200
Freethrows-0.1#180
Improvement-3.1#327

Defense
Total Defense+8.7#8
First Shot+9.6#5
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#271
Layups/Dunks+10.2#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#223
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#223
Freethrows+0.4#154
Improvement-1.1#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.3% 2.3% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.3% 66.2% 46.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 46.6% 57.6% 36.2%
Average Seed 9.9 9.7 10.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 9.6% 15.6% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four17.1% 17.2% 17.0%
First Round46.8% 56.7% 37.2%
Second Round17.4% 21.9% 13.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 4.4% 2.5%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.7% 0.9%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 49.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 4
Quad 25 - 39 - 7
Quad 35 - 215 - 9
Quad 46 - 021 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 65   UC San Diego W 63-58 67%     1 - 0 +10.7 -2.7 +13.7
  Nov 18, 2024 11   Gonzaga L 67-80 31%     1 - 1 +2.3 -0.5 +2.6
  Nov 26, 2024 28   Creighton W 71-53 34%     2 - 1 +32.4 +11.1 +22.6
  Nov 27, 2024 45   Oregon L 68-78 45%     2 - 2 +1.6 +3.0 -1.8
  Nov 30, 2024 3   Houston W 73-70 OT 12%     3 - 2 +25.7 +19.1 +6.8
  Dec 04, 2024 259   @ Fresno St. W 84-62 89%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +18.9 +2.7 +14.0
  Dec 07, 2024 311   San Diego W 74-57 96%     5 - 2 +5.9 -6.1 +11.2
  Dec 11, 2024 161   California Baptist W 81-75 87%     6 - 2 +3.8 +17.7 -13.0
  Dec 21, 2024 116   California W 71-50 76%     7 - 2 +23.9 +1.3 +23.7
  Dec 28, 2024 49   Utah St. L 66-67 59%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +6.7 -5.0 +11.7
  Jan 04, 2025 51   @ Boise St. W 76-68 40%     8 - 3 2 - 1 +20.7 +9.8 +11.0
  Jan 08, 2025 277   Air Force W 67-38 95%     9 - 3 3 - 1 +20.1 -4.5 +26.9
  Jan 11, 2025 40   @ New Mexico L 48-62 34%     9 - 4 3 - 2 +0.4 -14.1 +13.9
  Jan 14, 2025 77   Colorado St. W 75-60 69%     10 - 4 4 - 2 +20.0 +8.5 +12.1
  Jan 18, 2025 101   UNLV L 68-76 78%     10 - 5 4 - 3 -5.9 -6.6 +1.0
  Jan 22, 2025 277   @ Air Force W 77-76 OT 90%     11 - 5 5 - 3 -2.9 +2.7 -5.7
  Jan 25, 2025 88   @ Nevada W 69-50 55%     12 - 5 6 - 3 +28.0 +18.4 +14.5
  Jan 28, 2025 146   San Jose St. W 71-68 86%     13 - 5 7 - 3 +1.6 -2.0 +3.7
  Feb 01, 2025 167   Wyoming W 63-61 88%     14 - 5 8 - 3 -0.5 -4.4 +4.0
  Feb 08, 2025 77   @ Colorado St. W 66-65 50%    
  Feb 11, 2025 146   @ San Jose St. W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 51   Boise St. W 68-66 61%    
  Feb 18, 2025 259   Fresno St. W 80-62 96%    
  Feb 22, 2025 49   @ Utah St. L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 25, 2025 40   New Mexico W 72-71 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 167   @ Wyoming W 68-60 76%    
  Mar 04, 2025 101   @ UNLV W 67-64 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 88   Nevada W 67-61 74%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.2 5.2 2.1 9.6 1st
2nd 0.3 4.5 12.9 5.1 0.3 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.5 6.1 15.1 6.2 0.3 28.1 3rd
4th 0.3 5.1 11.5 4.9 0.1 21.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.7 7.3 3.4 0.2 15.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 1.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 5.1 13.2 21.3 24.8 21.3 10.5 2.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 87.1% 2.1    1.4 0.7 0.0
16-4 49.2% 5.2    1.5 2.8 0.8 0.0
15-5 10.3% 2.2    0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 3.1 4.4 1.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 2.4% 96.7% 28.3% 68.3% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 95.3%
16-4 10.5% 88.9% 27.2% 61.7% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.9 2.5 0.8 1.2 84.8%
15-5 21.3% 76.8% 25.0% 51.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 7.1 4.1 0.0 5.0 69.1%
14-6 24.8% 59.5% 18.0% 41.5% 10.3 0.3 1.6 5.8 7.0 0.1 10.1 50.6%
13-7 21.3% 42.8% 14.0% 28.9% 10.6 0.1 0.4 2.8 5.8 0.1 12.2 33.6%
12-8 13.2% 25.9% 9.9% 15.9% 10.8 0.1 0.7 2.5 0.2 9.8 17.7%
11-9 5.1% 17.1% 10.0% 7.1% 11.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 4.2 7.8%
10-10 1.2% 11.4% 10.6% 0.8% 11.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.9%
9-11 0.2% 0.2
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 56.3% 18.3% 38.1% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 4.1 9.0 19.2 21.0 0.5 43.7 46.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 4.8 1.5 16.2 27.9 22.1 27.9 1.5 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 7.3 10.5 15.8 28.1 28.1 10.5 7.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 94.3% 8.1 11.4 12.9 32.9 27.1 10.0