San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#54
Expected Predictive Rating+12.8#45
Pace65.5#250
Improvement-3.5#316

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#108
First Shot+0.8#140
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#89
Layup/Dunks+0.7#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#153
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#190
Freethrows+0.0#175
Improvement-0.9#228

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#15
First Shot+9.4#7
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#273
Layups/Dunks+10.0#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#227
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement-2.7#308
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.6% 80.0% 45.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.2% 73.3% 45.0%
Average Seed 10.2 9.8 10.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four24.8% 16.9% 32.7%
First Round49.2% 71.0% 27.2%
Second Round16.3% 23.6% 8.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 4.0% 1.8%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 6
Quad 25 - 29 - 8
Quad 34 - 113 - 9
Quad 48 - 021 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 46   UC San Diego W 63-58 58%     1 - 0 +13.6 -1.2 +15.1
  Nov 18, 2024 10   Gonzaga L 67-80 30%     1 - 1 +3.3 +1.1 +2.0
  Nov 26, 2024 32   Creighton W 71-53 38%     2 - 1 +31.9 +9.9 +23.3
  Nov 27, 2024 35   Oregon L 68-78 39%     2 - 2 +3.6 +4.2 -1.0
  Nov 30, 2024 4   Houston W 73-70 OT 13%     3 - 2 +25.8 +18.7 +7.4
  Dec 04, 2024 258   @ Fresno St. W 84-62 89%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +19.5 +2.9 +14.3
  Dec 07, 2024 312   San Diego W 74-57 97%     5 - 2 +5.2 -7.6 +11.9
  Dec 11, 2024 163   California Baptist W 81-75 89%     6 - 2 +3.1 +19.1 -15.1
  Dec 21, 2024 106   California W 71-50 75%     7 - 2 +24.9 +2.4 +23.6
  Dec 28, 2024 55   Utah St. L 66-67 61%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +7.0 -7.6 +14.7
  Jan 04, 2025 52   @ Boise St. W 76-68 39%     8 - 3 2 - 1 +21.7 +10.6 +11.2
  Jan 08, 2025 296   Air Force W 67-38 97%     9 - 3 3 - 1 +18.5 -4.4 +25.3
  Jan 11, 2025 41   @ New Mexico L 48-62 33%     9 - 4 3 - 2 +1.4 -13.3 +14.1
  Jan 14, 2025 53   Colorado St. W 75-60 61%     10 - 4 4 - 2 +23.1 +8.3 +15.4
  Jan 18, 2025 93   UNLV L 68-76 78%     10 - 5 4 - 3 -5.3 -3.7 -1.3
  Jan 22, 2025 296   @ Air Force W 77-76 OT 92%     11 - 5 5 - 3 -4.0 +3.0 -7.0
  Jan 25, 2025 82   @ Nevada W 69-50 55%     12 - 5 6 - 3 +28.5 +18.3 +15.1
  Jan 28, 2025 152   San Jose St. W 71-68 88%     13 - 5 7 - 3 +0.7 -1.8 +2.6
  Feb 01, 2025 174   Wyoming W 63-61 91%     14 - 5 8 - 3 -1.8 -4.6 +3.0
  Feb 08, 2025 53   @ Colorado St. L 63-68 39%     14 - 6 8 - 4 +8.6 +6.2 +1.6
  Feb 11, 2025 152   @ San Jose St. W 69-66 77%     15 - 6 9 - 4 +6.2 -1.6 +7.9
  Feb 15, 2025 52   Boise St. W 64-47 60%     16 - 6 10 - 4 +25.2 +2.9 +24.5
  Feb 18, 2025 258   Fresno St. W 83-60 95%     17 - 6 11 - 4 +15.0 +9.6 +6.0
  Feb 22, 2025 55   @ Utah St. L 71-79 40%     17 - 7 11 - 5 +5.5 +7.8 -3.1
  Feb 25, 2025 41   New Mexico W 73-65 53%     18 - 7 12 - 5 +17.9 +6.0 +11.8
  Mar 01, 2025 174   @ Wyoming W 72-69 80%     19 - 7 13 - 5 +4.7 +9.2 -4.1
  Mar 04, 2025 93   @ UNLV L 67-74 60%     19 - 8 13 - 6 +1.2 +2.1 -1.0
  Mar 08, 2025 82   Nevada W 80-61 74%     20 - 8 14 - 6 +23.0 +13.9 +10.3
  Mar 13, 2025 52   Boise St. L 67-68 50%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 62.6% 12.5% 50.0% 10.2 0.0 0.4 3.5 10.2 19.9 27.1 1.4 37.4 57.2%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 62.6% 12.5% 50.0% 10.2 0.0 0.4 3.5 10.2 19.9 27.1 1.4 37.4 57.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.5% 100.0% 9.0 0.2 3.2 24.8 45.7 23.4 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.7% 81.4% 9.9 0.1 3.0 18.7 40.1 19.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 27.0% 70.0% 10.4 0.3 7.3 30.2 31.5 0.7
Lose Out 49.8% 45.0% 10.8 0.0 0.9 9.0 32.6 2.5