South Carolina Upstate
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.2 #302
Expected Predictive Rating -8.1 #293
Pace 69.9 #153
Improvement -4.4 #336

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #341 D+ D+ D+ D+ C
Defense #226 C C- D+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #109 1.03 #321 -0.9 #210
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #118 0.69 #294 +0.3 #162
Three Pointers 35% #307 1.00 #200 -3.2 #292
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #297 -3.8 #298
Freethrows 0.29 #238 69% #297 0.20 #277
Second Chance 27.7% #266 0.94 #292 0.26 #287
Turnovers 18.0% #267
Total Offense -6.9 #341

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #32 1.15 #167 -3.3 #293
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.70 #81 +0.7 #137
Three Pointers 35% #332 1.07 #252 +2.0 #105
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #198 -0.5 #198
Freethrows 0.30 #199 71% #124 0.22 #186
Second Chance 31.1% #199 1.06 #235 0.33 #228
Turnovers 14.9% #290
Total Defense -1.3 #226

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #214 0.9% #255
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.1% #300 0.2% #192
Possession Length 17.0 #141 17.0 #146
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #189 0.16 #162
Improvement -3.9 #342 -0.5 #215

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.4% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.0% 9.7% 1.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 0.9% 5.1%
First Four0.9% 1.2% 0.8%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Away) - 22.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 32 - 42 - 11
Quad 48 - 811 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 134 @California Baptist L 75 - 87 12% -8  0 - 1 -7 +5 C+ C+ F -12 F A- F
 Wed, Nov 5 146 @Fresno St. W 67 - 66 13% -4  1 - 1 +5 -2 B B- F +6 A+ F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 116 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 73 10% -8  1 - 2 -7 -2 D- C+ F+ -7 C- F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 333 Tennessee Tech L 84 - 88 70% -3  1 - 3 -18 -3 C F B+ -15 F F B
 Fri, Nov 21 325 @West Georgia L 64 - 72 46% -4  1 - 4 -15 -14 F F+ C+ -1 C- F A
 Tue, Nov 25 341 NC Central W 82 - 67 73% +10  2 - 4 +0 +3 A D+ F -3 A- D- F
 Sat, Nov 29 13 @Nebraska L 63 - 72 1% -2  2 - 5 +12 -0 C C- A+ +13 A+ C+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 239 Coastal Carolina W 85 - 78 OT 47% -7  3 - 5 -0 -1 C D- D+ -1 C A- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 277 Western Carolina W 78 - 67 55% +4  4 - 5 +2 -4 D- C- D- +5 A+ C+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 29 @North Carolina L 62 - 80 2% -8  4 - 6 +0 +2 C B- B+ -3 C B- F+
 Tue, Dec 16 359 @South Carolina St. W 78 - 72 64% +6  5 - 6 -6 +3 C+ C- C- -9 F D+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 225 @Youngstown St. L 65 - 74 24% -8  5 - 7 -10 -8 F C- C- -1 D+ A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 234 Radford L 69 - 76 46% -4  5 - 8 0 - 1 -14 -12 F C C- -2 C D B-
 Sat, Jan 3 262 @Presbyterian L 77 - 86 30% -4  5 - 9 0 - 2 -12 +3 B D F+ -15 F D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 123 Winthrop L 50 - 71 24% -15  5 - 10 0 - 3 -22 -22 F D F+ -0 C C+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 246 @Charleston Southern W 86 - 81 OT 27% -1  6 - 10 1 - 3 +3 +3 D- B+ B- -1 F+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 98 @High Point L 69 - 89 7% -7  6 - 11 1 - 4 -12 -1 F B- D -12 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 21 209 UNC Asheville L 69 - 83 42% -6  6 - 12 1 - 5 -20 -3 C+ F A -17 F C+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 363 @Gardner-Webb L 65 - 67 75% +3  6 - 13 1 - 6 -17 -11 F F D -6 C D- D
 Thu, Jan 29 264 Longwood W 65 - 60 53% +2  7 - 13 2 - 6 -4 -12 C- F+ F +8 B- B- A-
 Wed, Feb 4 209 @UNC Asheville L 66 - 74 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 246 Charleston Southern L 74 - 75 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 98 High Point L 72 - 82 17%
 Sat, Feb 14 264 @Longwood L 69 - 74 31%
 Thu, Feb 19 123 @Winthrop L 68 - 82 11%
 Sat, Feb 21 262 Presbyterian W 69 - 68 53%
 Thu, Feb 26 234 @Radford L 74 - 81 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 363 Gardner-Webb W 81 - 68 89%
Totals 10 - 18 5 - 11 -8 -7 D+ D+ D+ -1 C C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.2 2.5 4th
5th 1.5 4.3 0.8 0.0 6.6 5th
6th 1.7 9.1 3.0 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.1 3.2 14.1 8.7 0.4 26.5 7th
8th 0.7 10.0 22.4 14.6 1.2 48.9 8th
9th 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.2 9th
Total 1.2 10.7 25.7 30.4 20.5 8.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0% 0.0
9-7 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 15.0 0.0 0.4
8-8 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.5
7-9 8.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 8.3
6-10 20.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 20.1
5-11 30.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.3 30.1
4-12 25.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 25.6
3-13 10.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.6
2-14 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%