South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.2 #177
Expected Predictive Rating -4.9 #243
Pace 70.9 #123
Improvement -1.3 #249

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #156 C+ C C D+ C+
Defense #223 C C C- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #116 1.18 #143 +2.0 #113
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #209 0.79 #132 -0.4 #197
Three Pointers 40% #201 1.02 #187 -0.3 #196
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #137 +1.3 #137
Freethrows 0.28 #251 69% #286 0.20 #265
Second Chance 30.3% #194 1.05 #146 0.32 #163
Turnovers 16.5% #165
Total Offense +0.1 #156

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #303 1.19 #227 +2.0 #112
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #259 0.83 #295 +0.6 #145
Three Pointers 48% #26 1.00 #158 -3.1 #310
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #208 -0.6 #199
Freethrows 0.31 #208 74% #296 0.23 #231
Second Chance 29.2% #121 1.09 #270 0.32 #190
Turnovers 15.7% #240
Total Defense -1.3 #223

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #130 0.1% #173
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.6% #144 1.5% #212
Possession Length 17.3 #182 17.1 #156
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #191 0.15 #121
Improvement +1.2 #117 -2.6 #314

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.8% 17.7% 13.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.4
.500 or above 44.7% 60.0% 28.9%
.500 or above in Conference 90.2% 96.8% 83.5%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.6% 1.6% 3.6%
First Round15.0% 17.2% 12.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Home) - 50.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 413 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 201 Merrimack W 75 - 66 55% +2  1 - 0 +6 +3 C C- C- +4 A- B+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 110 @Northern Iowa L 58 - 65 23% -4  1 - 1 -0 -1 B- B F -0 D A- B
 Wed, Nov 12 82 @Oregon L 69 - 83 15% -5  1 - 2 -4 -0 C C- C -4 C- C+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 268 Georgia St. W 105 - 58 77% +28  2 - 2 +38 +27 A+ D B +10 B A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 100 Utah Valley L 52 - 75 28% -10  2 - 3 -18 -17 F D F -1 B- D- B+
 Wed, Nov 26 118 UC Irvine L 52 - 64 34% -7  2 - 4 -9 -17 F D- D- +9 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 313 @Northern Arizona W 75 - 62 68% +6  3 - 4 +7 -1 F C C+ +9 A- C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 185 Idaho L 81 - 84 63% +1  3 - 5 -8 +7 C+ D- A+ -14 F C D
 Tue, Dec 9 298 @Ball St. W 68 - 64 64% +0  4 - 5 -1 +1 C+ C- C+ -2 B- F+ F
 Mon, Dec 15 111 Wyoming L 72 - 87 32% -13  4 - 6 -11 +4 C C A+ -16 F F C
 Fri, Dec 19 254 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 87 - 88 66% -1  4 - 7 -6 +12 B B B+ -19 F D- C
 Mon, Dec 29 2 @Arizona L 71 - 99 1% -16  4 - 8 -1 +5 C+ A C+ -3 C F+ A-
 Thu, Jan 1 241 Nebraska Omaha W 84 - 69 73% +6  5 - 8 1 - 0 +7 +7 C A+ C +0 A- A F
 Sat, Jan 3 282 @North Dakota L 87 - 90 OT 61% -1  5 - 9 1 - 1 -7 +11 C B+ B- -18 F+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 288 Denver W 87 - 79 81% +1  6 - 9 2 - 1 -2 +4 D+ B+ C -6 C+ C D-
 Wed, Jan 14 139 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 76 30% -8  6 - 10 2 - 2 -7 -1 C F B -6 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 358 UMKC W 90 - 62 93% +6  7 - 10 3 - 2 +10 +18 A+ C B+ -5 C F D
 Thu, Jan 22 133 @St. Thomas L 69 - 74 29% +1  7 - 11 3 - 3 -0 -2 C D- C- +2 C+ D A
 Wed, Jan 28 241 @Nebraska Omaha L 71 - 80 51% -2  7 - 12 3 - 4 -11 -3 F C- D -8 C F+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 335 Oral Roberts W 95 - 72 88% +14  8 - 12 4 - 4 +9 +12 A+ A- B- -4 B B- F
 Wed, Feb 4 133 St. Thomas W 78 - 77 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 285 South Dakota W 87 - 78 80%
 Thu, Feb 12 288 @Denver W 84 - 81 61%
 Sat, Feb 14 335 @Oral Roberts W 78 - 71 74%
 Wed, Feb 18 139 North Dakota St. W 75 - 74 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 282 North Dakota W 83 - 74 80%
 Thu, Feb 26 358 @UMKC W 80 - 70 83%
 Sat, Feb 28 285 @South Dakota W 84 - 81 61%
Totals 13 - 15 9 - 7 -1 +0 C+ C C -1 C C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 5.9 4.2 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 6.0 16.4 10.8 0.8 34.3 3rd
4th 0.6 6.9 15.3 8.5 1.1 32.4 4th
5th 0.2 3.4 7.5 3.0 0.1 14.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.2 1.1 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.7 7.6 15.9 24.3 26.7 17.9 5.5 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 9.4% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
11-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 5.5% 29.3% 29.3% 13.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.0 3.9
11-5 17.9% 21.3% 21.3% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.6 0.0 14.1
10-6 26.7% 16.9% 16.9% 15.1 0.0 0.3 3.7 0.6 22.1
9-7 24.3% 13.5% 13.5% 15.6 1.3 2.0 21.0
8-8 15.9% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 0.1 1.7 14.1
7-9 7.6% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.7 6.9
6-10 1.7% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.1 1.5
5-11 0.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 15.0 84.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 13.4 5.9 46.7 44.5 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%