South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.1 #173
Expected Predictive Rating -4.3 #234
Pace 71.0 #130
Improvement -1.3 #252

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #146 C C C D C+
Defense #224 C C C- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #123 1.18 #152 +1.6 #123
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #216 0.72 #220 -1.1 #227
Three Pointers 41% #178 1.03 #165 +0.4 #166
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #154 +0.9 #154
Freethrows 15.0 #297 71% #236 10.6 #299
Second Chance 31.1% #174 1.07 #151 0.33 #151
Turnovers 16.8% #195
Total Offense +0.6 #146

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #286 1.19 #223 +1.6 #121
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #257 0.89 #334 +0.1 #177
Three Pointers 48% #35 0.96 #125 -2.1 #268
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #199 -0.4 #187
Freethrows 17.9 #210 75% #299 13.5 #117
Second Chance 29.4% #127 1.08 #232 0.32 #176
Turnovers 15.8% #231
Total Defense -1.7 #224

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #132 0.2% #177
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.9% #160 1.2% #204
Possession Length 17.5 #190 16.9 #122
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #168 0.17 #155
Improvement +2.4 #45 -3.7 #351

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.1% 23.1% 17.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 61.4% 79.4% 52.8%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 97.7% 88.0%
Conference Champion 17.2% 32.1% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four2.5% 1.3% 3.1%
First Round18.2% 22.5% 16.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Away) - 32.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 413 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 237 Merrimack W 75 - 66 62%  +2  1 - 0 +5 +1 C C- D- +3 A B C
 Sun, Nov 9 96 @Northern Iowa L 58 - 65 19%  -4  1 - 1 +1 -0 B A- F +1 D+ B+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 65 @Oregon L 69 - 83 12%  -5  1 - 2 -2 +1 B- D+ C -3 D+ B F
 Fri, Nov 21 304 Georgia St. W 105 - 58 82%  +28  2 - 2 +36 +26 A+ F B+ +9 B A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 101 Utah Valley L 52 - 75 28%  -10  2 - 3 -18 -17 F D F -1 B+ F A-
 Wed, Nov 26 121 UC Irvine L 52 - 64 37%  -7  2 - 4 -10 -19 F F D- +10 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 302 @Northern Arizona W 75 - 62 64%  +6  3 - 4 +8 +2 F B- B- +7 B+ C B-
 Sat, Dec 6 195 Idaho L 81 - 84 66%  +1  3 - 5 -8 +6 C F A+ -14 F B- F
 Tue, Dec 9 312 @Ball St. W 68 - 64 69%  +0  4 - 5 -2 +0 C D C+ -2 B- D- F
 Mon, Dec 15 95 Wyoming L 72 - 87 26%  -13  4 - 6 -9 +5 C+ C- A+ -15 F F C
 Fri, Dec 19 226 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 87 - 88 60%  -1  4 - 7 -5 +12 A- B+ B- -17 F D- C
 Mon, Dec 29 2 @Arizona L 71 - 99 1%  -16  4 - 8 -1 +5 B- A+ C+ -3 C D- A-
 Thu, Jan 1 257 Nebraska Omaha W 84 - 69 76%  +6  5 - 8 1 - 0 +6 +5 C- A+ D+ +1 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 319 @North Dakota L 87 - 90 OT 70%  -1  5 - 9 1 - 1 -10 +11 B- B C+ -21 F F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 264 Denver W 87 - 79 78%  +1  6 - 9 2 - 1 -1 +4 D+ B- C+ -5 B C F
 Wed, Jan 14 146 @North Dakota St. L 73 - 78 32% 
 Sat, Jan 17 343 UMKC W 82 - 68 90% 
 Thu, Jan 22 135 @St. Thomas L 75 - 81 30% 
 Wed, Jan 28 257 @Nebraska Omaha W 78 - 77 55% 
 Sat, Jan 31 298 Oral Roberts W 80 - 70 82% 
 Wed, Feb 4 135 St. Thomas W 79 - 78 52% 
 Sat, Feb 7 290 South Dakota W 88 - 79 80% 
 Thu, Feb 12 264 @Denver W 83 - 81 57% 
 Sat, Feb 14 298 @Oral Roberts W 77 - 73 63% 
 Wed, Feb 18 146 North Dakota St. W 76 - 75 54% 
 Sat, Feb 21 319 North Dakota W 83 - 71 86% 
 Thu, Feb 26 343 @UMKC W 79 - 71 75% 
 Sat, Feb 28 290 @South Dakota W 85 - 82 62% 
Totals 14 - 14 10 - 6 -1 +1 C C C -2 C C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.6 6.0 2.7 0.4 17.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.4 10.3 8.0 1.9 0.1 26.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 9.0 12.6 6.6 1.2 0.1 31.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.1 5.6 1.7 0.1 13.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.2 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 5.7 10.0 15.9 20.0 19.2 14.8 8.0 2.8 0.4 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
14-2 96.6% 2.7    2.3 0.4
13-3 75.6% 6.0    3.7 2.1 0.2
12-4 37.7% 5.6    2.1 2.7 0.8 0.0
11-5 11.4% 2.2    0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 8.8 6.4 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.4% 39.1% 39.1% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
14-2 2.8% 40.1% 40.1% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.7
13-3 8.0% 32.3% 32.3% 14.2 0.4 1.4 0.9 0.0 5.4
12-4 14.8% 26.9% 26.9% 14.6 0.2 1.5 2.1 0.3 10.8
11-5 19.2% 21.5% 21.5% 15.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 0.8 15.1
10-6 20.0% 17.4% 17.4% 15.3 0.1 2.1 1.2 16.5
9-7 15.9% 12.5% 12.5% 15.8 0.3 1.7 13.9
8-8 10.0% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9 9.1
7-9 5.7% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.5 5.2
6-10 2.3% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.2 2.1
5-11 0.7% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-12 0.2% 0.2
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 15.0 81.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.4 8.8 41.2 50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%