South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#120
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#128
Pace70.4#142
Improvement-0.4#204

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#128
First Shot-0.4#185
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#63
Layup/Dunks-0.5#201
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#159
Freethrows-0.2#192
Improvement-0.6#226

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#131
First Shot-2.3#254
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#7
Layups/Dunks+3.8#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#326
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#339
Freethrows+1.0#112
Improvement+0.2#168
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.9% 36.7% 28.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 12.5 13.3
.500 or above 93.8% 98.7% 93.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 98.1% 95.3%
Conference Champion 38.4% 49.8% 37.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round28.8% 36.7% 28.5%
Second Round3.1% 5.9% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 4.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 35 - 46 - 9
Quad 413 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 91   McNeese St. W 80-73 37%     1 - 0 +13.1 +6.9 +5.9
  Nov 08, 2024 258   Long Beach St. W 80-79 85%     2 - 0 -7.3 +2.8 -10.1
  Nov 14, 2024 180   Northern Colorado L 69-78 64%     2 - 1 -10.0 -7.1 -2.9
  Nov 20, 2024 282   Southern Miss W 101-76 87%     3 - 1 +15.4 +6.9 +4.1
  Nov 24, 2024 163   Duquesne W 71-60 61%     4 - 1 +10.8 +4.6 +6.9
  Nov 25, 2024 58   Boise St. L 82-83 26%     4 - 2 +8.4 +14.4 -6.1
  Nov 26, 2024 171   Missouri St. W 75-55 63%     5 - 2 +19.4 +7.9 +12.8
  Dec 04, 2024 191   @ Montana L 67-71 55%     5 - 3 -2.6 -9.2 +6.8
  Dec 07, 2024 254   Eastern Washington W 74-53 84%     6 - 3 +12.9 -2.8 +16.5
  Dec 11, 2024 60   @ Nevada L 63-77 18%     6 - 4 -1.7 +6.4 -10.5
  Dec 13, 2024 76   @ Colorado L 70-81 23%     6 - 5 -0.5 +9.5 -10.9
  Dec 29, 2024 9   @ Alabama L 74-92 4%    
  Jan 02, 2025 319   Denver W 81-66 92%    
  Jan 08, 2025 125   @ St. Thomas L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 11, 2025 294   @ Nebraska Omaha W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 16, 2025 275   North Dakota W 82-70 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 284   Oral Roberts W 81-69 88%    
  Jan 23, 2025 222   @ UMKC W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 236   South Dakota W 89-79 82%    
  Jan 30, 2025 114   @ North Dakota St. L 73-76 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 275   @ North Dakota W 79-73 71%    
  Feb 06, 2025 125   St. Thomas W 77-74 63%    
  Feb 13, 2025 294   Nebraska Omaha W 80-67 88%    
  Feb 15, 2025 236   @ South Dakota W 86-82 64%    
  Feb 19, 2025 114   North Dakota St. W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 23, 2025 222   UMKC W 75-66 80%    
  Feb 27, 2025 284   @ Oral Roberts W 78-72 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 319   @ Denver W 78-69 79%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 7.5 12.1 10.0 5.0 1.2 38.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.9 9.4 9.4 3.9 0.5 27.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.8 7.1 5.1 1.3 0.1 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 5.3 9.0 13.3 17.0 18.1 16.0 10.5 5.0 1.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
15-1 100.0% 5.0    4.9 0.1
14-2 95.0% 10.0    8.5 1.5 0.0
13-3 75.2% 12.1    7.9 3.9 0.3
12-4 41.2% 7.5    3.0 3.5 0.9 0.1
11-5 13.7% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 38.4% 38.4 26.0 10.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.2% 55.4% 55.3% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.4%
15-1 5.0% 50.4% 50.4% 12.3 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.5
14-2 10.5% 43.2% 43.2% 12.7 0.1 1.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.0
13-3 16.0% 37.9% 37.9% 13.0 0.0 1.2 3.5 1.3 0.1 10.0
12-4 18.1% 31.2% 31.2% 13.4 0.5 2.8 2.1 0.3 12.5
11-5 17.0% 24.9% 24.9% 13.7 0.1 1.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 12.8
10-6 13.3% 19.5% 19.5% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.0 10.7
9-7 9.0% 16.1% 16.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.0 7.6
8-8 5.3% 14.1% 14.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 4.5
7-9 2.7% 10.1% 10.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.5
6-10 1.2% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.1
5-11 0.4% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-12 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 28.9% 28.9% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.4 11.7 8.2 2.8 0.4 71.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.4 3.8 3.8 11.5 15.4 50.0 15.4