South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.7 210
Results Rating -6.0 261
Pace 68.5 180
Improvement -2.8 285

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 179 C C C+ D C+
Defense C- 238 C- C D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 142 C 58% 179 +0.7 151
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 215 C 39% 143 -0.3 193
Three Pointers 41% 183 C 34% 188 -0.1 182
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 162 C +0.0 175
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 165
Second Chance C- 28.7% 229 C+ 1.06 131 C 0.30 197
Turnovers C+ 15.8% 117
Freethrows D 0.27 294 C- 71% 230 D 0.19 299
Total Offense C -0.6 179

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 92 B- 9.6% 105
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 272 D+ 6.7% 285
Three Pointers D- 76% 332 B 0.4% 67
Total C 55% 202 C+ 5.3% 143

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 308 C- 60% 238 -2.0 108
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 258 D 42% 311 -0.4 153
Three Pointers 48% 22 C 34% 197 +3.7 331
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 164 C- +1.5 237
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 229
Second Chance B- 28.1% 90 D+ 1.09 276 C 0.31 174
Turnovers D+ 15.3% 270
Freethrows C+ 0.30 164 D+ 74% 293 C 0.22 186
Total Defense C- -2.1 238

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 283 D+ 8.0% 300
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 140 D+ 3.4% 270
Three Pointers C+ 81% 105 D- -0.1% 358
Total C- 58% 243 D- 3.3% 337

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 193 17.3 189
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 259 0.15 107
Improvement -0.1 #195 -2.6 #309

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 235 210 181
Results Rating Rank 280 256 200
Conference Record 6 - 10 7 - 9 8 - 8
Conference Finish 7 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 10% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 49% 58% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four7% 7% 7%
First Round7% 7% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UMKC (Away) - 85.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 60 - 7
Quad 31 - 51 - 12
Quad 411 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 160 Merrimack W 75 - 66 40% +2  58% 1 - 0 B +9 C +1 C+ C- C- A- +8 A A- C
 Sun, Nov 9 94 @Northern Iowa L 58 - 65 14% -4  8% 1 - 1 C+ +2 D+ -3 B- B F B +4 D+ A B
 Wed, Nov 12 89 @Oregon L 69 - 83 13% -5  11% 1 - 2 C- -5 C- -2 C+ C B- C- -3 C- C+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 289 Georgia St. W 105 - 58 77% +28  99% 2 - 2 A+ +36 A+ +24 A+ D B+ A+ +11 B A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 95 Utah Valley L 52 - 75 21% -10  0% 2 - 3 F+ -17 F -19 F D F C+ +2 B- F+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 120 UC Irvine L 52 - 64 30% -7  6% 2 - 4 D -9 F -20 F F+ D A+ +11 B A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 304 @Northern Arizona W 75 - 62 61% +6  76% 3 - 4 B- +8 D+ -4 F C C A+ +12 A- C+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 187 Idaho L 81 - 84 57% +1  55% 3 - 5 D+ -8 B- +5 C+ D- A+ F -12 F C D-
 Tue, Dec 9 313 @Ball St. W 68 - 64 64% +0  35% 4 - 5 C- -2 C- -1 B- C C+ C -1 B- F+ F
 Mon, Dec 15 100 Wyoming L 72 - 87 23% -13  0% 4 - 6 D -10 C +1 C C- A+ F -12 F F C
 Fri, Dec 19 271 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 87 - 88 63% -1  39% 4 - 7 D+ -7 B+ +9 B B B+ F -16 F D- C-
 Mon, Dec 29 3 @Arizona L 71 - 99 1% -16  0% 4 - 8 C -0 C+ +3 B- A C+ C -1 C- F+ A-
 Thu, Jan 1 239 Nebraska Omaha W 84 - 69 67% +6  86% 5 - 8 1 - 0 B- +8 C+ +3 C- A+ C B +5 A A F
 Sat, Jan 3 294 @North Dakota L 87 - 90 OT 58% -1  24% 5 - 9 1 - 1 D+ -8 B +7 C+ B C+ F -15 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 228 Denver W 87 - 79 65% +1  50% 6 - 9 2 - 1 C +1 C+ +3 D+ A- C C- -2 B- C D-
 Wed, Jan 14 129 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 76 23% -8  1% 6 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -3 C+ F B D+ -3 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 360 UMKC W 90 - 62 93% +6  82% 7 - 10 3 - 2 B +8 A+ +15 A+ C- B+ D -5 C F D
 Thu, Jan 22 128 @St. Thomas L 69 - 74 22% +1  53% 7 - 11 3 - 3 C +0 D -5 C D D+ B+ +6 B- D A
 Wed, Jan 28 239 @Nebraska Omaha L 71 - 80 44% -2  19% 7 - 12 3 - 4 D -10 D- -7 F D+ D- D+ -3 C+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 335 Oral Roberts W 95 - 72 86% +14  94% 8 - 12 4 - 4 B +9 A- +9 A+ A- B- C- -2 B+ B- F
 Wed, Feb 4 128 St. Thomas L 62 - 77 42% -5  21% 8 - 13 4 - 5 F+ -16 F+ -8 C+ F B+ F+ -9 D A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 293 South Dakota L 67 - 68 78% -3  22% 8 - 14 4 - 6 D- -12 F -14 D- F B- B- +2 D+ A D-
 Thu, Feb 12 228 @Denver L 61 - 79 43% -12  1% 8 - 15 4 - 7 F -19 F -14 F D- A D- -7 F+ D- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 335 @Oral Roberts W 87 - 69 71% +5  71% 9 - 15 5 - 7 B +10 A +14 C A+ C D+ -3 B F A-
 Wed, Feb 18 129 North Dakota St. L 66 - 74 43% -2  18% 9 - 16 5 - 8 D -9 D- -6 C F A- D+ -3 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 294 North Dakota W 91 - 83 78% -3  10% 10 - 16 6 - 8 C- -3 A +13 C A A+ F -16 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 360 @UMKC W 79 - 68 85%
 Sat, Feb 28 293 @South Dakota W 79 - 77 58%
Totals 11 - 17 7 - 9 -3 C -1 C C C+ C- -2 C C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C C C C 40% 35% 41% C+ C C- C+ C C+ D C- D C- C- D C C- 34% 18% 48% C C- B- D+ C D+ C+ D+ C
1.08 58% 39% 34% 0 0 1.03 29% 1.1 .30 16% .27 71% .19 1.12 60% 42% 34% +1 0 1.05 28% 1.1 .31 15% .30 74% .20
Nov
3		 Merrimack C D- D- A+ C+ 44% 23% 33% C C+ C- C C- C- A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ 49% 0% 51% F A C+ A+ A- C F D+ F
1.07 48% 33% 41% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.0 .39 20% .46 77% .36 0.94 38% 28% -15 +3 0.80 23% 0.7 .15 16% .46 81% .37
Nov
9		 Northern Iowa D+ A C F B- 39% 20% 41% C B- A+ D- B F B F C+ B D+ A+ D+ C- 57% 5% 39% F D+ A- A+ A B F A+ D
0.91 69% 38% 24% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.8 .30 27% .30 64% .19 1.02 64% 0% 35% +2 +3 1.14 16% 0.8 .13 17% .38 55% .21
Nov
12		 Oregon C- D+ A+ D B- 26% 31% 43% D C+ F A+ C B- D+ F D- C- F+ D C- D 16% 16% 67% A C- A+ F C+ D- A- C- B+
0.98 50% 53% 30% 0 -2 0.98 19% 1.3 .25 16% .23 64% .15 1.18 67% 44% 35% +4 -1 1.07 24% 1.6 .38 14% .26 75% .20
Nov
21		 Georgia St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 9% 49% B A+ C F D B+ A- B+ A A+ F C+ A+ A- 24% 12% 63% F B A+ B- A+ C F A+ F
1.47 77% 80% 50% +24 +2 1.53 33% 0.8 .26 14% .36 77% .28 0.81 67% 33% 19% -12 0 0.78 11% 1.0 .11 17% .45 67% .30
Nov
25		 Utah Valley F F A+ F F 34% 16% 50% C+ F B F D F C B- C C+ B A- D B- 48% 14% 38% C+ B- D+ F+ F+ B A F B
0.74 40% 71% 18% -13 0 0.77 34% 0.7 .24 30% .33 75% .25 1.07 54% 29% 37% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.2 .48 23% .20 82% .17
Nov
26		 UC Irvine F D- F F F 43% 21% 36% B F F C- F+ D B F C- A+ F A+ A+ B+ 37% 21% 42% D+ B A- A+ A+ A+ F F F
0.70 43% 27% 16% -18 0 0.66 21% 0.9 .19 20% .29 59% .17 0.86 69% 22% 22% -7 0 0.88 25% 0.6 .16 27% .52 75% .39
Dec
3		 Northern Arizona D+ D- D- D- F 37% 12% 51% C F C- B- C C A+ C- A+ A+ C+ D A+ A 33% 24% 43% B- A- B+ F+ C+ B F+ A+ C-
1.10 53% 33% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.2 .37 16% .44 72% .31 0.91 56% 42% 24% -6 -1 0.88 19% 1.1 .22 19% .34 58% .20
Dec
6		 Idaho B- B D+ B+ B- 40% 34% 26% D+ C+ D F D- A+ A+ C- A+ F C+ F F+ F 27% 22% 51% A- F B+ F+ C D- F C F
1.18 65% 35% 38% +4 -2 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 7% .52 73% .38 1.22 54% 64% 40% +9 -1 1.18 23% 1.1 .27 13% .49 72% .35
Dec
9		 Ball St. C- C- D A+ C+ 49% 18% 33% B B- C C C C+ F+ F+ F C F+ A A+ B 39% 16% 45% D+ B- F D+ F+ F F+ C D-
1.07 58% 33% 44% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.0 .33 17% .21 73% .15 1.01 63% 25% 18% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.9 .30 11% .35 70% .25
Dec
15		 Wyoming C D F B+ C- 43% 8% 49% B C D- A C- A+ C+ B+ B F F D- D+ F 36% 20% 44% A- F D F F C D+ F F+
1.08 52% 0% 38% -3 +2 1.00 19% 1.1 .22 10% .40 75% .30 1.30 78% 50% 36% +11 0 1.24 39% 1.6 .61 16% .36 85% .30
Dec
19		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee B+ C+ B- A- B 38% 13% 50% C B B- B B B+ F F F F A+ F F F 30% 28% 42% B+ F F A+ D- C- C+ F D
1.27 62% 43% 39% +6 +1 1.16 33% 1.3 .42 13% .25 53% .13 1.28 25% 67% 50% +8 -2 1.15 50% 0.8 .42 15% .26 87% .22
Dec
29		 Arizona C+ F+ F A+ C+ 41% 25% 34% A- B- C- A+ A C+ C+ F D C F A+ C- C 45% 18% 37% F+ C- B F F+ A- F D F
0.91 42% 27% 40% -7 0 0.88 21% 1.6 .33 18% .27 53% .14 1.27 78% 22% 37% +8 +1 1.20 36% 1.3 .48 18% .49 77% .38
Jan
1		 Nebraska Omaha C+ B- F F D 55% 9% 36% A C- A A- A+ C B+ A A B A+ C- A- A+ 31% 17% 53% C- A A+ C+ A F C C- C
1.20 66% 20% 26% -2 +3 1.04 41% 1.2 .49 14% .35 81% .28 0.99 44% 40% 29% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.0 .16 6% .29 74% .21
Jan
3		 North Dakota B D+ F A+ C+ 46% 10% 44% B- C+ B- B- B C+ B- A- B+ F F D- D+ F 28% 13% 58% B F F C F C- B- F D
1.25 57% 20% 45% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.2 .47 19% .41 78% .32 1.29 67% 43% 35% +4 0 1.11 47% 1.1 .50 14% .30 89% .27
Jan
8		 Denver C+ A F C- C- 44% 27% 29% D D+ A- B A- C A+ A- A+ C- A+ D D- C+ 23% 36% 41% A B- D B+ C D- B+ A+ A
1.25 74% 21% 33% +2 0 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 13% .41 76% .31 1.14 38% 45% 39% +1 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 12% .24 67% .16
Jan
14		 North Dakota St. D+ A F C+ C+ 33% 16% 51% C+ C+ F+ F F B D F D- D+ C D- F F 24% 22% 55% B- F A+ A+ A+ D B+ F C+
1.00 75% 25% 36% +5 0 1.12 22% 0.3 .06 17% .22 67% .15 1.17 58% 45% 50% +15 -1 1.29 20% 0.5 .10 14% .22 83% .18
Jan
17		 UMKC A+ A A+ A+ A+ 49% 20% 31% C A+ C C- C- B+ C F D D D A+ C- C 35% 24% 41% C- C D+ F F D C+ D+ C
1.38 72% 80% 44% +20 +1 1.43 37% 1.0 .37 14% .27 60% .16 0.95 61% 8% 33% -6 -1 0.88 30% 1.3 .38 17% .24 69% .17
Jan
22		 St. Thomas D F+ A+ D C 46% 15% 38% C+ C D+ F+ D D+ D F F B+ D A+ C+ B 42% 4% 53% D B- D+ F D A F F+ F
0.99 50% 75% 30% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 19% .23 46% .11 1.06 68% 0% 33% +2 +2 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 20% .43 75% .32
Jan
28		 Nebraska Omaha D- A F F F 35% 22% 43% D+ F B F D+ D- A+ C- A+ D+ D- F A+ C+ 34% 25% 42% B- C+ C+ F F+ F F+ F F
1.01 72% 27% 18% -8 0 0.86 34% 0.8 .27 17% .43 72% .31 1.14 67% 54% 23% 0 -1 1.00 24% 1.5 .36 11% .35 82% .29
Jan
31		 Oral Roberts A- D A+ A+ A+ 57% 12% 31% B A+ C- A+ A- B- F F F C- A+ F C B+ 26% 14% 60% B- B+ B- C+ B- F F B- F
1.30 52% 71% 56% +10 +2 1.28 30% 1.6 .48 14% .19 58% .11 0.98 20% 50% 32% -10 0 0.82 24% 0.9 .22 12% .42 70% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 St. Thomas F+ A+ A+ F C 39% 7% 54% B C+ F+ F F B+ C+ C- C F+ F+ F D- D- 28% 11% 61% B+ D A+ A+ A+ F A F B
0.99 78% 100% 20% 0 +2 1.07 21% 0.4 .09 14% .28 73% .21 1.23 73% 50% 39% +11 0 1.24 10% 0.0 .00 8% .21 83% .17
Feb
7		 South Dakota F F C+ A+ D+ 40% 35% 25% F D- F F+ F B- F A- F B- B+ D+ D- D 30% 19% 51% B D+ A+ C- A D- A+ A+ A+
0.96 45% 42% 43% 0 -2 0.98 12% 1.0 .12 14% .18 82% .15 0.98 50% 40% 37% 0 0 1.02 16% 1.0 .16 14% .22 62% .13
Feb
12		 Denver F F A+ F F 48% 22% 29% C- F F A D- A F A+ F D- A+ F F F+ 31% 24% 45% D+ F+ F C+ D- D+ B- B B
0.96 43% 62% 12% -12 0 0.79 23% 1.3 .30 8% .17 90% .15 1.25 40% 50% 50% +8 -1 1.16 38% 1.1 .41 13% .27 73% .20
Feb
14		 Oral Roberts A C- F A C 49% 12% 39% C+ C B- A+ A+ C F+ A+ C D+ B A+ B+ B+ 45% 11% 45% F+ B F F F A- C+ F D-
1.32 54% 17% 42% 0 +2 1.06 37% 2.1 .77 15% .25 93% .23 1.04 48% 20% 29% -10 +2 0.85 37% 1.5 .57 23% .27 93% .25
Feb
18		 North Dakota St. D- A+ F C C 35% 20% 45% C C F F F A- C F D- D+ F F+ A+ D 33% 27% 41% B- D+ A+ C A+ F F B- F
1.01 78% 20% 35% +4 0 1.10 19% 0.4 .08 15% .25 57% .14 1.13 81% 46% 25% +4 -1 1.08 13% 1.0 .13 8% .43 69% .30
Feb
21		 North Dakota A D- F A+ C+ 35% 12% 53% C- C A- B+ A A+ B+ A+ A+ F F F F F 35% 11% 54% C F A+ A A+ F A+ B- A+
1.38 53% 17% 46% +5 +1 1.14 42% 1.3 .55 12% .43 84% .36 1.26 74% 50% 41% +13 +1 1.30 19% 0.8 .16 11% .20 67% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 6.3 6.3 4th
5th 22.5 22.5 5th
6th 26.2 20.7 46.9 6th
7th 6.8 17.6 24.4 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 6.8 43.8 49.5 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 49.5% 10.2% 10.2% 15.9 0.5 4.6 44.4
7-9 43.8% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 3.8 40.0
6-10 6.8% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.5 6.3
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 15.9 90.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.0% 100.0% 15.9 9.2 90.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 19.7%
Lose Out 4.7%