Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.5 305
Results Rating -10.5 325
Pace 71.9 92
Improvement +3.7 54

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 290 D+ D+ C- C- D+
Defense D+ 298 D D C- D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 172 C- 55% 247 -0.8 217
2 Pt. Jumpers 51% 41 C 39% 154 +2.4 60
Three Pointers 35% 310 D+ 32% 265 -4.2 319
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 285 C- -1.9 243
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 261
Second Chance D 25.5% 314 C+ 1.06 135 D+ 0.27 275
Turnovers C- 17.6% 234
Freethrows C- 0.29 223 D+ 70% 259 C- 0.20 238
Total Offense D+ -4.5 290

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F+ 34% 347 C- 11.5% 211
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 221 B+ 2.5% 31
Three Pointers F 68% 364 B+ 0.2% 33
Total F 40% 362 C+ 5.2% 137

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 184 D+ 62% 288 +1.5 227
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 350 D 42% 316 -1.9 42
Three Pointers 47% 26 C- 35% 236 +4.1 338
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 318 D+ +2.7 287
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 300
Second Chance D+ 33.0% 289 D+ 1.09 273 D 0.36 302
Turnovers C- 15.8% 242
Freethrows D- 0.37 337 B- 71% 102 D- 0.26 322
Total Defense D+ -4.0 298

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 264 C- 10.3% 196
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 218 B+ 8.2% 40
Three Pointers C+ 82% 121 D 0.1% 341
Total D+ 60% 274 C- 5.2% 203

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 177 16.5 38
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 92 0.20 279
Improvement +1.2 #123 +2.5 #59

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 322 305 278
Results Rating Rank 339 319 288
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 7 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 11% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 97% 100% 90%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four10% 11% 8%
First Round5% 6% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 75.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 00 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 411 - 1111 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 12 @Gonzaga L 43 - 98 1% -20  12% 0 - 1 F -33 F -23 F C D- F+ -8 C F A
 Thu, Nov 6 34 @Texas A&M L 70 - 104 2% -12  19% 0 - 2 F+ -17 D -5 B+ B- F F+ -9 D- D F+
 Wed, Nov 12 190 Samford L 90 - 93 OT 36% +1  47% 0 - 3 D+ -8 C+ +2 A- F A+ F+ -9 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 237 @Texas St. L 67 - 77 24% -12  0% 0 - 4 D -11 F+ -9 D- D F C- -2 D F A
 Thu, Nov 20 16 @Vanderbilt L 74 - 109 1% -24  2% 0 - 5 D- -13 B- +4 A+ F C+ F -15 D- F C-
 Sat, Dec 6 114 Sam Houston St. L 70 - 82 21% -6  27% 0 - 6 D- -12 F -15 F C- D B +4 A B- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 59 @Minnesota L 53 - 89 4% -20  1% 0 - 7 F -24 F -16 F F+ F F+ -9 F C+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 24 @North Carolina St. L 72 - 108 1% -24  0% 0 - 8 F+ -17 C+ +3 D- A B F -20 F+ F D
 Mon, Dec 22 245 Abilene Christian L 68 - 75 46% +2  65% 0 - 9 F+ -14 D- -7 D D+ B+ D- -7 D D- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 258 @Southern L 73 - 84 28% -8  2% 0 - 10 0 - 1 D- -14 F -11 F D+ D- C -1 F C D+
 Mon, Jan 5 296 @Grambling St. L 67 - 84 36% -9  7% 0 - 11 0 - 2 F -22 D- -7 F A+ F+ F -15 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 329 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 66 - 74 70% -8  10% 0 - 12 0 - 3 F -22 F -17 F F C- D -5 F B- F+
 Mon, Jan 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 84 - 51 94% +18  98% 1 - 12 1 - 3 B- +7 C +0 B+ D F A- +7 A F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 345 @Alcorn St. W 72 - 71 54% +1  54% 2 - 12 2 - 3 D -9 D+ -2 D- D- A D -6 C+ C- D
 Mon, Jan 19 337 @Jackson St. L 89 - 94 51% -5  1% 2 - 13 2 - 4 D- -14 B- +5 B D C F -19 F C F
 Sat, Jan 24 310 Alabama A&M W 89 - 74 62% -1  46% 3 - 13 3 - 4 C+ +3 A +11 B+ C- A+ D- -8 F C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 312 Alabama St. W 96 - 64 64% +16  99% 4 - 13 4 - 4 A +20 A +13 A+ C B+ B+ +6 A D- F
 Sat, Jan 31 331 @Prairie View L 78 - 85 49% -2  30% 4 - 14 4 - 5 F+ -15 D -5 D- A C+ F+ -9 D D F
 Sat, Feb 7 328 @Florida A&M W 62 - 57 47% +4  78% 5 - 14 5 - 5 C- -3 F+ -9 C- F F B+ +6 B- A A-
 Mon, Feb 9 240 @Bethune-Cookman L 69 - 79 OT 24% +2  55% 5 - 15 5 - 6 D- -11 F+ -9 F D- C C- -2 A- F C-
 Sat, Feb 14 296 Grambling St. W 82 - 79 59% +2  57% 6 - 15 6 - 6 D+ -8 B- +5 A+ B D F -12 F A D
 Mon, Feb 16 258 Southern W 74 - 73 50% -6  9% 7 - 15 7 - 6 D+ -8 D- -8 C- F+ D- C+ +0 D+ B C-
 Thu, Feb 19 329 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83 - 64 47% +2  59% 8 - 15 8 - 6 B +11 B- +5 B C- A- A- +7 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 21 365 @Mississippi Valley L 71 - 72 86% -1  40% 8 - 16 8 - 7 F -21 F -10 F F C+ F -11 F D- D+
 Thu, Feb 26 345 Alcorn St. W 79 - 72 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 337 Jackson St. W 82 - 76 72%
 Thu, Mar 5 331 Prairie View W 84 - 78 70%
Totals 10 - 17 10 - 8 -9 D+ -4 A- C- D+ D+ -4 D+ D+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C D+ C- 39% 51% 35% D+ D+ D C+ D+ C- C- D+ C- D+ D+ D C- D+ 38% 14% 47% D D D+ D+ D C- D- B- D-
1.02 55% 39% 32% -2 -1 0.97 26% 1.1 .27 18% .29 70% .20 1.14 62% 42% 35% +3 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 16% .37 71% .21
Nov
3		 Gonzaga F F F F F 30% 34% 36% D+ F C+ C- C D- C+ F D+ F+ C- F B+ B 52% 13% 36% F C F C- F A D- F F
0.59 40% 12% 17% -24 -2 0.50 24% 0.8 .20 23% .31 59% .18 1.35 66% 57% 30% +4 +2 1.14 56% 1.2 .68 18% .35 81% .29
Nov
6		 Texas A&M D B- A+ B- A- 35% 33% 33% D- B+ C+ B B- F A+ F A F+ F F+ D F+ 39% 7% 54% C+ D- A+ F D F+ F B+ F
0.91 60% 50% 36% +5 -2 1.09 30% 1.0 .30 30% .46 60% .28 1.35 73% 50% 39% +10 +2 1.26 23% 1.7 .39 10% .53 70% .38
Nov
12		 Samford C+ C F+ A+ A 39% 36% 25% D+ A- F D- F A+ C F D+ F+ A F C+ C+ 37% 8% 55% F C B F F C- F C F
1.16 58% 32% 67% +10 -2 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 8% .29 67% .20 1.20 47% 75% 32% -3 +2 1.00 20% 2.0 .40 13% .65 68% .44
Nov
15		 Texas St. F+ C- A F D 47% 29% 24% D- D- C F D F A+ F A+ C- D C+ C+ D+ 43% 22% 35% D- D C F F A F C+ F
0.94 57% 46% 27% -1 0 1.00 29% 0.7 .21 23% .53 62% .33 1.08 63% 38% 31% 0 0 1.03 32% 1.9 .60 24% .59 75% .44
Nov
20		 Vanderbilt B- A B+ A+ A+ 20% 50% 30% F A+ D F F C+ A+ F A F F F C D- 35% 10% 55% D D- F C F C- C C+ C
0.99 67% 43% 50% +12 -5 1.15 21% 0.3 .06 19% .48 66% .31 1.46 77% 67% 35% +11 +1 1.26 49% 1.2 .57 12% .34 77% .26
Dec
6		 Sam Houston St. F F+ F F F 41% 19% 41% B- F C C- C- D A+ B+ A+ B B- A+ A+ A+ 55% 11% 34% F A C B- B- C+ F C F
0.88 50% 18% 21% -15 0 0.73 29% 1.0 .29 19% .44 75% .33 1.03 55% 17% 22% -10 +2 0.87 35% 0.9 .33 18% .49 72% .35
Dec
14		 Minnesota F C- C+ F F 33% 31% 37% D+ F D- F F+ F C A+ A- F+ F A+ F F 29% 8% 63% C F C+ C+ C+ C- F D+ F
0.76 56% 40% 17% -10 -2 0.80 20% 0.6 .11 24% .25 92% .23 1.28 79% 25% 43% +14 +1 1.31 29% 1.0 .29 16% .43 72% .31
Dec
17		 North Carolina St. C+ D+ C+ F F+ 43% 15% 43% B- D- A- A- A B B A A- F B F F F 30% 11% 58% C+ F+ F C+ F D F F F
1.01 52% 38% 22% -10 +1 0.83 35% 1.1 .40 18% .34 75% .26 1.52 56% 67% 45% +12 +1 1.28 49% 1.2 .60 10% .42 85% .36
Dec
22		 Abilene Christian D- A F F D 57% 20% 24% C+ D F A+ D+ B+ F D F D- F A+ A- D 41% 20% 39% D D B F D- C+ F F F
0.98 73% 11% 27% +1 +1 1.07 15% 1.8 .26 20% .34 68% .23 1.08 74% 22% 28% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.3 .36 22% .50 81% .40
Jan
3		 Southern F A D- F F 30% 34% 36% F F F A+ D+ D- A+ B- A+ C F F D+ F 37% 29% 33% C F A+ F C D+ F A F
0.93 71% 31% 24% -4 -2 0.89 18% 1.8 .32 22% .52 78% .41 1.07 68% 47% 35% +7 -1 1.14 16% 1.8 .29 15% .51 62% .31
Jan
5		 Grambling St. D- F D+ F F 34% 30% 36% F F D+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ D- F F A F F 25% 18% 57% B- F F D F F+ F A- F
0.96 41% 33% 28% -11 -2 0.78 30% 2.1 .63 23% .22 92% .20 1.20 73% 25% 44% +10 -1 1.20 43% 1.1 .46 17% .47 67% .31
Jan
10		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F D- C- F F 52% 21% 27% C F F+ D- F C- B- F+ C- D F A+ D F 44% 18% 38% F+ F B- B- B- F+ B- A- B+
0.95 52% 36% 14% -12 +1 0.81 27% 1.0 .27 16% .39 70% .27 1.07 73% 22% 37% +5 +1 1.14 23% 0.9 .19 14% .27 69% .19
Jan
12		 Mississippi Valley C D+ F A+ A- 31% 10% 60% C+ B+ D- B- D F F C F A- A A+ C+ A+ 47% 31% 22% F A F F F A- D A+ A
1.23 56% 0% 52% +12 +1 1.27 31% 1.3 .41 22% .23 75% .17 0.75 43% 14% 30% -16 -1 0.69 31% 1.3 .38 25% .31 38% .12
Jan
17		 Alcorn St. D+ F+ A F+ F+ 62% 22% 16% C D- F+ C D- A A+ F A+ D D A A+ B 46% 9% 46% F C+ D+ C C- D F F F
1.11 54% 50% 29% -1 +1 1.02 30% 1.2 .36 14% .59 64% .38 1.10 62% 25% 24% -6 +2 0.93 28% 0.9 .25 17% .43 91% .39
Jan
19		 Jackson St. B- A+ B F+ B- 41% 9% 50% B B C+ F D C B D+ B- F F F D- F 38% 24% 38% D F C C C F F F F
1.22 83% 40% 29% +6 +2 1.18 38% 0.8 .31 15% .39 71% .27 1.29 74% 58% 37% +12 0 1.26 27% 1.0 .27 14% .45 86% .38
Jan
24		 Alabama A&M A B+ F A+ A 37% 24% 39% D B+ D B+ C- A+ A- B A D- C+ F F F 42% 24% 33% D+ F B- D- C C+ D+ A C+
1.32 68% 17% 55% +11 0 1.24 27% 1.1 .30 10% .40 75% .30 1.10 53% 55% 47% +8 0 1.18 22% 1.1 .25 18% .36 65% .23
Jan
27		 Alabama St. A C- A+ A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% C A+ A- F C B+ B+ A+ A+ B+ A- F A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% F A D+ D- D- F F A+ F
1.31 58% 75% 46% +14 +1 1.31 41% 0.9 .37 15% .42 85% .35 0.88 45% 50% 19% -17 +3 0.73 33% 1.0 .33 14% .46 59% .27
Jan
31		 Prairie View D F B- A- D 42% 28% 30% D- D- C A+ A C+ A- F C F+ F+ B+ B D+ 35% 23% 42% F+ D C F+ D F D+ D- D
1.05 48% 43% 40% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.5 .53 17% .44 63% .28 1.14 65% 31% 29% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.2 .29 9% .37 80% .30
Feb
7		 Florida A&M F+ F A+ A+ C 46% 26% 28% D+ C- C- F F F F B F B+ A C- C+ B- 30% 26% 44% B- B- F A+ A A- F C F
0.97 38% 67% 46% +3 0 1.09 30% 0.6 .17 23% .20 80% .16 0.89 46% 36% 32% -6 -1 0.88 41% 0.3 .12 25% .44 67% .29
Feb
9		 Bethune-Cookman F+ F B- F F 31% 27% 42% F F D D+ D- C A+ B A+ C- B+ A+ F B+ 31% 35% 33% A+ A- F F+ F C- F B- F
0.93 44% 43% 18% -13 -1 0.73 27% 1.1 .29 15% .46 76% .35 1.06 50% 17% 41% -6 -2 0.84 40% 1.2 .47 18% .57 66% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Grambling St. B- A D+ A+ A+ 46% 13% 41% B- A+ F A+ B D A+ F+ A F F F C F 37% 10% 53% F+ F B+ A+ A D F+ B D
1.17 71% 33% 47% +14 +2 1.33 23% 1.8 .42 21% .49 67% .33 1.12 68% 60% 33% +5 +1 1.16 23% 0.7 .16 18% .40 70% .28
Feb
16		 Southern D- C+ C+ D+ D+ 45% 20% 35% B- C- D- D F+ D- F B- F C+ A+ F F C- 38% 21% 40% D- D+ B- B B C- C+ C+ C+
1.02 61% 40% 33% +1 +1 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 22% .25 79% .19 1.00 35% 45% 43% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 16% .31 68% .21
Feb
19		 Arkansas Pine Bluff B- C+ A+ B- B+ 33% 22% 45% D- B F A+ C- A- F A+ F A- B+ D+ D+ C- 26% 21% 53% C+ C- C- A+ A+ C- F A+ D-
1.21 61% 58% 36% +7 -1 1.15 23% 1.7 .39 12% .15 89% .13 0.94 50% 40% 36% 0 -1 1.00 27% 0.4 .10 18% .43 63% .27
Feb
21		 Mississippi Valley F D- B+ F F+ 37% 33% 30% F F F C+ F C+ A F B F F F+ A F 25% 42% 33% B- F F B- D- D+ F A- D-
1.04 53% 47% 29% -2 -2 0.96 23% 1.3 .30 16% .49 68% .33 1.05 75% 45% 25% +3 -4 1.00 33% 0.8 .27 19% .36 65% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.3 12.2 12.4 2nd
3rd 4.4 21.3 25.7 3rd
4th 0.1 16.7 5.8 22.6 4th
5th 2.3 16.3 0.4 19.0 5th
6th 0.1 9.5 3.6 13.2 6th
7th 0.5 4.2 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 1.2 0.4 1.6 8th
9th 0.7 0.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.6 16.6 41.3 39.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 39.5% 12.4% 12.4% 16.0 4.9 34.6
10-8 41.3% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 4.1 37.2
9-9 16.6% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 1.2 15.3
8-10 2.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.5
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 16.0 89.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.9% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.9%
Lose Out 2.4%