Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#274
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#264
Pace73.0#65
Improvement+3.1#58

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#328
First Shot-4.9#311
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#258
Layup/Dunks-6.6#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#262
Freethrows-1.4#274
Improvement-0.1#187

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#182
First Shot+1.1#141
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#299
Layups/Dunks+5.1#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#338
Freethrows+0.4#152
Improvement+3.2#33
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.5% 17.1% 14.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 47.5% 52.5% 25.1%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 23.4% 26.1% 11.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.0% 13.2% 12.2%
First Round10.3% 10.6% 8.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Away) - 81.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 30 - 30 - 9
Quad 414 - 615 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 44   @ Xavier L 69-78 4%     0 - 1 +5.1 +0.8 +4.7
  Nov 10, 2024 37   @ Georgia L 64-92 4%     0 - 2 -13.5 -1.3 -11.3
  Nov 12, 2024 99   @ Georgia Tech L 62-81 11%     0 - 3 -11.7 -9.4 -1.1
  Nov 17, 2024 109   @ Samford L 82-97 12%     0 - 4 -8.6 +4.7 -12.2
  Nov 24, 2024 40   @ New Mexico L 68-99 4%     0 - 5 -16.6 -3.0 -10.4
  Dec 01, 2024 184   Texas St. L 59-72 40%     0 - 6 -16.8 -13.5 -4.3
  Dec 07, 2024 181   @ Sam Houston St. L 71-87 23%     0 - 7 -14.6 +0.8 -16.2
  Dec 14, 2024 88   @ Nevada L 73-105 8%     0 - 8 -23.0 +2.2 -24.2
  Dec 17, 2024 51   @ Boise St. L 51-82 5%     0 - 9 -18.3 -19.5 +2.8
  Dec 21, 2024 242   @ Abilene Christian L 65-69 35%     0 - 10 -6.3 -11.6 +5.6
  Jan 04, 2025 224   Southern L 58-67 49%     0 - 11 0 - 1 -14.9 -14.5 -0.4
  Jan 06, 2025 339   Grambling St. W 71-66 OT 77%     1 - 11 1 - 1 -9.1 -15.3 +5.6
  Jan 13, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 82-53 93%     2 - 11 2 - 1 +6.4 -0.3 +6.7
  Jan 18, 2025 320   Alcorn St. W 66-57 71%     3 - 11 3 - 1 -2.9 -7.2 +4.8
  Jan 20, 2025 284   Jackson St. W 81-73 61%     4 - 11 4 - 1 -1.2 +4.1 -5.5
  Jan 25, 2025 360   @ Alabama A&M W 82-78 OT 70%     5 - 11 5 - 1 -7.9 -9.6 +1.1
  Jan 27, 2025 308   @ Alabama St. W 80-69 49%     6 - 11 6 - 1 +5.0 +3.0 +1.8
  Feb 01, 2025 348   Prairie View W 79-63 79%     7 - 11 7 - 1 +1.1 +4.0 -1.8
  Feb 04, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-75 82%    
  Feb 08, 2025 340   Florida A&M W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 10, 2025 279   Bethune-Cookman W 71-68 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 339   @ Grambling St. W 68-65 59%    
  Feb 17, 2025 224   @ Southern L 67-72 28%    
  Feb 22, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 77-56 98%    
  Feb 24, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 88-73 93%    
  Mar 01, 2025 284   @ Jackson St. L 70-72 41%    
  Mar 03, 2025 320   @ Alcorn St. W 69-68 50%    
  Mar 08, 2025 348   @ Prairie View W 78-74 61%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 5.3 9.3 6.5 1.4 23.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.5 13.7 18.4 8.4 1.1 44.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 8.2 8.2 1.5 19.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.4 4.4 0.5 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 1.9 0.4 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.8 7.1 15.5 23.3 25.2 17.8 7.6 1.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.1
16-2 85.0% 6.5    4.5 1.9
15-3 52.5% 9.3    4.8 4.3 0.3
14-4 21.1% 5.3    1.3 2.8 1.2 0.1
13-5 3.8% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.4% 23.4 11.9 9.4 1.8 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.4% 29.6% 29.6% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.0
16-2 7.6% 26.2% 26.2% 15.8 0.3 1.7 5.6
15-3 17.8% 21.3% 21.3% 16.0 0.2 3.6 14.0
14-4 25.2% 19.5% 19.5% 16.0 0.0 4.9 20.3
13-5 23.3% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 3.2 20.1
12-6 15.5% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 1.6 13.9
11-7 7.1% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.6 6.6
10-8 1.8% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.1 1.7
9-9 0.3% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.8 15.6 83.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 14.9 20.0 72.5 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%