Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.9 #309
Expected Predictive Rating -13.6 #346
Pace 73.2 #68
Improvement +2.9 #65

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #274 D+ C- C C- D+
Defense #319 D D- D+ D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #149 1.12 #223 -0.1 #177
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #65 0.72 #239 +1.9 #82
Three Pointers 34% #323 0.95 #269 -4.9 #327
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #270 -3.1 #268
Freethrows 0.30 #189 70% #255 0.21 #213
Second Chance 26.5% #293 1.08 #103 0.29 #241
Turnovers 17.0% #196
Total Offense -3.9 #274

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #126 1.26 #305 -3.2 #292
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #363 0.83 #300 +2.6 #16
Three Pointers 47% #36 1.03 #207 -3.3 #316
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #303 -4.0 #303
Freethrows 0.37 #338 72% #173 0.27 #335
Second Chance 32.3% #254 1.23 #359 0.40 #342
Turnovers 15.1% #269
Total Defense -5.0 #319

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #279 2.4% #354
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.8% #261 5.3% #284
Possession Length 17.2 #169 16.4 #42
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #93 0.20 #282
Improvement +2.2 #72 +0.7 #145

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 7.6% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.0% 2.2% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 43.2% 63.8% 29.0%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.0% 7.1% 3.6%
First Round2.9% 4.4% 1.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Away) - 40.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 49 - 129 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 11 @Gonzaga L 43 - 98 1% -20  0 - 1 -32 -20 F C D -10 C F B+
 Thu, Nov 6 27 @Texas A&M L 70 - 104 1% -12  0 - 2 -15 -1 B C+ F -11 D- D+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 228 Samford L 90 - 93 OT 42% +1  0 - 3 -10 +3 B+ F A+ -12 C- F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 259 @Texas St. L 67 - 77 27% -12  0 - 4 -13 -6 D D F -6 D F A-
 Thu, Nov 20 12 @Vanderbilt L 74 - 109 1% -24  0 - 5 -13 +6 A+ F C+ -18 D F C-
 Sat, Dec 6 108 Sam Houston St. L 70 - 82 18% -6  0 - 6 -11 -11 F C- C- +1 A+ B- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 76 @Minnesota L 53 - 89 5% -20  0 - 7 -25 -13 F+ F+ F -12 F C+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 23 @North Carolina St. L 72 - 108 1% -24  0 - 8 -17 +6 D- A B+ -22 D- F D
 Mon, Dec 22 267 Abilene Christian L 68 - 75 50% +2  0 - 9 -16 -7 D+ D B- -9 D+ D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 266 @Southern L 73 - 84 28% -8  0 - 10 0 - 1 -14 -8 F C- D- -5 F C+ D+
 Mon, Jan 5 287 @Grambling St. L 67 - 84 33% -9  0 - 11 0 - 2 -21 -6 F A+ D- -16 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 10 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 66 - 74 67% -8  0 - 12 0 - 3 -22 -13 F F+ C -9 F B F+
 Mon, Jan 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 84 - 51 94% +18  1 - 12 1 - 3 +6 +4 B C- F +3 A F B
 Sat, Jan 17 348 @Alcorn St. W 72 - 71 50% +1  2 - 12 2 - 3 -8 +1 D- D B+ -9 C+ C- D-
 Mon, Jan 19 337 @Jackson St. L 89 - 94 48% -5  2 - 13 2 - 4 -13 +9 B D C+ -22 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 293 Alabama A&M W 89 - 74 57% -1  3 - 13 3 - 4 +4 +15 B+ C A+ -10 F C C
 Tue, Jan 27 322 Alabama St. W 96 - 64 65% +16  4 - 13 4 - 4 +19 +13 A C- B +4 A+ D- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 339 @Prairie View L 78 - 85 48% -2  4 - 14 4 - 5 -15 -2 D- A+ C+ -13 D+ D- F
 Sat, Feb 7 317 @Florida A&M L 74 - 76 41%
 Mon, Feb 9 236 @Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 81 23%
 Sat, Feb 14 287 Grambling St. W 75 - 74 55%
 Mon, Feb 16 266 Southern W 79 - 78 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 331 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 81 - 82 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 365 @Mississippi Valley W 79 - 67 86%
 Thu, Feb 26 348 Alcorn St. W 80 - 74 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 337 Jackson St. W 82 - 77 70%
 Thu, Mar 5 339 Prairie View W 84 - 78 70%
Totals 9 - 18 8 - 9 -9 -4 D+ C- C -5 D D- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.8 1st
2nd 0.5 2.3 0.4 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.5 1.8 0.1 5.5 3rd
4th 1.3 6.1 0.6 8.0 4th
5th 0.1 6.5 3.5 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 9.4 0.5 11.7 6th
7th 0.2 7.4 4.9 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 2.8 10.8 0.8 14.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 7.4 5.0 13.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.6 7.0 0.6 11.6 10th
11th 0.6 2.4 4.3 1.7 0.0 8.9 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.6 2.8 8.7 19.1 25.6 23.0 14.1 5.2 0.9 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 48.6% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 6.8% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.9% 22.9% 22.9% 15.4 0.1 0.1 0.7
11-7 5.2% 14.1% 14.1% 16.0 0.7 4.4
10-8 14.1% 11.8% 11.8% 16.0 1.7 12.5
9-9 23.0% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 1.9 21.1
8-10 25.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.7 24.9
7-11 19.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.1
6-12 8.7% 8.7
5-13 2.8% 2.8
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 16.0 94.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.4 63.2 36.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%