Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#299
Expected Predictive Rating-9.7#318
Pace73.7#69
Improvement-2.2#295

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#331
First Shot-5.0#319
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#236
Layup/Dunks-6.8#353
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#273
Freethrows-1.2#253
Improvement-2.6#336

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#219
First Shot+0.4#160
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#326
Layups/Dunks+5.0#40
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#346
Freethrows+0.4#158
Improvement+0.3#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 15.1% 9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 18.4% 27.5% 9.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.2% 92.8% 77.7%
Conference Champion 16.7% 25.9% 7.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four10.4% 12.1% 8.7%
First Round6.9% 9.0% 4.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 49.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 30 - 10
Quad 412 - 712 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 49   @ Xavier L 69-78 4%     0 - 1 +4.5 -0.1 +5.0
  Nov 10, 2024 36   @ Georgia L 64-92 3%     0 - 2 -12.9 -2.4 -9.6
  Nov 12, 2024 112   @ Georgia Tech L 62-81 11%     0 - 3 -12.8 -10.7 -1.0
  Nov 17, 2024 118   @ Samford L 82-97 11%     0 - 4 -9.1 +2.0 -10.0
  Nov 24, 2024 64   @ New Mexico L 68-99 5%     0 - 5 -19.7 -6.9 -9.7
  Dec 01, 2024 126   Texas St. L 59-72 26%     0 - 6 -13.9 -10.6 -4.3
  Dec 07, 2024 140   @ Sam Houston St. L 71-87 14%     0 - 7 -11.9 +1.2 -13.8
  Dec 14, 2024 60   @ Nevada L 73-105 4%     0 - 8 -19.7 +3.4 -22.1
  Dec 17, 2024 58   @ Boise St. L 51-82 4%     0 - 9 -18.6 -18.1 +1.1
  Dec 21, 2024 212   @ Abilene Christian L 65-69 23%     0 - 10 -3.6 -12.4 +9.2
  Jan 04, 2025 240   Southern L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 06, 2025 310   Grambling St. W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 11, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84-77 74%    
  Jan 13, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 73-61 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 337   Alcorn St. W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 20, 2025 309   Jackson St. W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 360   @ Alabama A&M W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 27, 2025 291   @ Alabama St. L 74-77 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 340   Prairie View W 83-76 74%    
  Feb 08, 2025 357   Florida A&M W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 10, 2025 263   Bethune-Cookman W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 310   @ Grambling St. L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 17, 2025 240   @ Southern L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 22, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 76-58 95%    
  Feb 24, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 87-74 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 309   @ Jackson St. L 69-71 42%    
  Mar 03, 2025 337   @ Alcorn St. W 72-71 52%    
  Mar 08, 2025 340   @ Prairie View W 80-79 53%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.1 4.7 2.6 0.9 0.1 16.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.6 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.8 6.9 3.3 0.4 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.6 3.3 0.3 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.7 3.5 0.4 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.3 3.7 0.6 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.4 0.8 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.5 0.8 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.2 7.1 10.4 13.2 15.0 14.9 13.0 9.3 5.7 2.7 0.9 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.8% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 96.9% 2.6    2.4 0.2 0.0
15-3 83.0% 4.7    3.3 1.3 0.1
14-4 54.4% 5.1    2.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 21.1% 2.7    0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.7% 16.7 9.7 4.9 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 43.8% 43.8% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.9% 36.3% 36.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.6
16-2 2.7% 31.5% 31.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8
15-3 5.7% 26.6% 26.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.2
14-4 9.3% 20.8% 20.8% 16.0 0.0 1.9 7.4
13-5 13.0% 17.7% 17.7% 16.0 2.3 10.7
12-6 14.9% 13.0% 13.0% 16.0 1.9 13.0
11-7 15.0% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 1.4 13.5
10-8 13.2% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 1.1 12.1
9-9 10.4% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.6 9.8
8-10 7.1% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.2 6.9
7-11 4.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.2
6-12 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 11.6 87.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.7 40.6 46.9 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%