UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.3 301
Results Rating -7.2 278
Pace 68.1 193
Improvement +0.1 187

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 178 C- D+ B- B D+
Defense F+ 354 D- C- D- B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 267 C- 57% 211 -2.2 266
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 129 C- 36% 234 +1.0 123
Three Pointers 40% 205 C 33% 207 -0.8 212
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 277 C- -1.3 221
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 235
Second Chance D+ 26.9% 280 C 1.01 197 D+ 0.27 260
Turnovers B- 15.7% 109
Freethrows B+ 0.37 21 D+ 69% 283 B 0.25 64
Total Offense C -0.6 178

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 39% 315 C- 11.9% 234
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 172 D+ 6.8% 290
Three Pointers D 77% 317 C+ 0.7% 149
Total D 48% 319 C- 6.2% 246

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 280 D 63% 314 +0.0 179
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 188 D+ 40% 276 +0.3 217
Three Pointers 45% 76 F+ 39% 358 +5.3 351
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 133 F+ +5.6 352
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 337
Second Chance C- 31.0% 205 D+ 1.10 280 C- 0.34 259
Turnovers D- 13.6% 341
Freethrows B 0.27 65 C+ 72% 128 B 0.19 66
Total Defense F+ -7.6 354

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 68 D 6.7% 335
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 142 D+ 3.2% 279
Three Pointers B 79% 50 D 0.1% 340
Total C+ 53% 120 D- 3.1% 348

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 197 16.8 106
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 300 0.16 158
Improvement +2.5 #80 -2.4 #299

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 315 301 280
Results Rating Rank 311 282 254
Conference Record 8 - 10 8 - 10 10 - 8
Conference Finish 7 6 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 45% 100% 18%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 32.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 49 - 911 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 96 @Kansas St. L 64 - 93 7% -7  40% 0 - 1 F -20 F -16 F+ F F+ C -1 D- D- A-
 Sat, Nov 8 227 Elon L 90 - 92 OT 44% -1  34% 0 - 2 D -9 C+ +2 A F C+ F -11 C+ B+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 24 @North Carolina St. L 64 - 110 1% -15  6% 0 - 3 F -27 D- -7 F D+ C- F -17 D F F
 Sat, Nov 15 157 Austin Peay L 63 - 69 31% -3  17% 0 - 4 D -9 F -15 D- F B- B+ +6 B+ C C
 Thu, Nov 20 212 @Queens L 94 - 101 21% -8  0% 0 - 5 D+ -7 A+ +16 B- B A+ F -23 F D- F
 Sun, Nov 23 198 Youngstown St. W 68 - 62 28% -9  6% 1 - 5 C+ +4 F -11 D F+ F A+ +14 A A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 265 Delaware L 60 - 73 41% -1  37% 1 - 6 F -19 F -13 F F C D- -7 F A C-
 Wed, Nov 26 83 Miami (OH) L 71 - 82 9% +1  54% 1 - 7 C- -4 D -6 F+ A F B- +2 C+ A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 2 223 UNC Asheville L 77 - 82 33% -0  53% 1 - 8 D -9 B +7 A+ C C- F -16 F F F
 Sat, Dec 6 246 @East Carolina W 82 - 78 26% +2  72% 2 - 8 C+ +2 B+ +8 D A+ C+ D -6 D+ F A
 Tue, Dec 16 273 N.C. A&T L 65 - 71 54% -6  3% 2 - 9 F+ -15 F -11 F C- A D+ -5 C+ C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 1 274 Chattanooga W 77 - 72 54% +1  50% 3 - 9 1 - 0 C- -4 C- -0 C+ C F D+ -4 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 190 Samford W 89 - 82 37% +8  96% 4 - 9 2 - 0 C+ +2 A+ +16 C+ A- A+ F -13 D- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 238 @Wofford L 85 - 97 25% -11  6% 4 - 10 2 - 1 D- -13 B +7 C+ B B F -21 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 131 @East Tennessee St. L 60 - 86 11% -10  6% 4 - 11 2 - 2 F -21 F -15 F B- F D -6 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 348 The Citadel W 69 - 66 OT 77% -4  24% 5 - 11 3 - 2 D- -13 F -13 F F+ B- C -0 D+ A- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 178 Mercer L 92 - 102 34% -12  1% 5 - 12 3 - 3 D- -14 B+ +8 B+ F+ A+ F -21 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 21 358 @VMI W 85 - 78 68% +6  82% 6 - 12 4 - 3 D+ -6 B +7 D D+ A+ F -12 D+ F F
 Fri, Jan 23 175 Furman L 66 - 89 34% -5  4% 6 - 13 4 - 4 F -27 D+ -4 C- D+ C F -26 F C F
 Thu, Jan 29 178 @Mercer L 77 - 95 17% -14  13% 6 - 14 4 - 5 F+ -16 D+ -2 F B- A F -13 D F F+
 Sat, Jan 31 348 @The Citadel L 66 - 71 OT 57% -2  22% 6 - 15 4 - 6 F+ -15 F -12 F C- D- D+ -3 F+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 247 Western Carolina W 81 - 78 48% +0  34% 7 - 15 5 - 6 C- -5 C+ +3 D+ B D- D- -8 D- B D
 Sun, Feb 8 175 @Furman W 67 - 64 17% +4  79% 8 - 15 6 - 6 B- +5 C +1 B F C B +4 B+ B- D+
 Wed, Feb 11 358 VMI W 92 - 71 85% +15  90% 9 - 15 7 - 6 C+ +2 B +7 B F+ B+ D+ -5 F B- C-
 Sat, Feb 14 238 Wofford W 99 - 89 46% +12  99% 10 - 15 8 - 6 C+ +3 A+ +17 A+ F A+ F -14 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 18 247 @Western Carolina L 77 - 91 27% -6  11% 10 - 16 8 - 7 F+ -16 C- -2 B F D+ F -14 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 21 131 East Tennessee St. L 75 - 87 24% -4  23% 10 - 17 8 - 8 D- -13 C+ +2 A- B C F -16 F D+ B-
 Thu, Feb 26 274 @Chattanooga L 74 - 79 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 190 @Samford L 74 - 83 19%
Totals 11 - 18 9 - 9 -8 C -1 B- C- D+ F+ -8 C D+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- C- C C- 36% 42% 40% D+ C- D+ C D+ B- B+ D+ B F+ D D+ F+ F+ 35% 20% 45% C+ D- C- D+ C- D- B C+ B
1.08 57% 36% 33% -1 -1 0.98 27% 1.0 .27 16% .37 69% .25 1.20 63% 40% 39% +6 0 1.13 31% 1.1 .34 14% .27 72% .26
Nov
4		 Kansas St. F D F F+ F 47% 20% 33% B- F+ F+ F+ F F+ B- F C- C C+ F F F+ 41% 19% 40% C+ D- C- F D- A- D- A+ B-
0.80 50% 18% 28% -11 +1 0.82 24% 1.0 .24 23% .32 60% .19 1.16 58% 45% 48% +10 0 1.22 34% 1.3 .44 20% .31 55% .17
Nov
8		 Elon C+ D- C+ A+ A 30% 19% 51% C- A D+ F F C+ A+ F B+ F B- A+ F C 38% 16% 47% B+ C+ F A+ B+ F F C+ F
1.21 50% 40% 52% +12 0 1.25 31% 0.7 .21 15% .42 59% .25 1.23 55% 22% 41% +1 +1 1.05 40% 0.6 .26 5% .43 70% .30
Nov
12		 North Carolina St. D- F C+ F F 26% 21% 54% D- F F+ A- D+ C- A+ D A+ F D+ B F D 38% 15% 48% C D B F F F C C- C-
0.86 40% 38% 24% -13 -1 0.74 19% 1.1 .21 22% .70 63% .45 1.48 65% 33% 45% +10 +1 1.23 26% 2.0 .53 5% .33 78% .26
Nov
15		 Austin Peay F C- C- F+ D- 35% 22% 43% D+ D- F F+ F B- A F+ B B+ B- A+ B+ A- 39% 22% 39% B- B+ C+ C- C C B A+ A-
0.86 59% 36% 29% -4 0 0.94 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 63% .25 0.95 52% 25% 29% -8 0 0.85 27% 1.2 .32 16% .26 63% .16
Nov
20		 Queens A+ B A D+ C+ 58% 12% 30% A B- D- A+ B A+ A+ F+ A+ F D+ C- F F 36% 9% 55% D+ F F B+ D- F D- F F
1.38 66% 50% 33% +5 +3 1.18 27% 1.6 .42 6% .56 67% .37 1.49 65% 40% 48% +15 +1 1.34 40% 1.0 .40 9% .37 87% .32
Nov
23		 Youngstown St. F A+ B F C 22% 45% 33% F D D- F F+ F B+ F+ C+ A+ B C+ B+ A- 23% 30% 47% A+ A A- A+ A+ D+ A C- A-
0.94 82% 41% 25% +2 -4 0.98 24% 0.8 .19 24% .40 68% .27 0.86 54% 35% 30% -5 -2 0.88 24% 0.6 .14 18% .19 73% .13
Nov
25		 Delaware F F+ F B- D- 4% 43% 53% F F F F F C A+ C+ A+ D- F D+ F F 14% 38% 48% A+ F C+ A+ A C- A+ A+ A+
0.94 50% 25% 36% -4 -5 0.83 21% 0.6 .13 14% .40 82% .33 1.14 86% 42% 54% +20 -4 1.34 19% 0.4 .07 17% .15 50% .08
Nov
26		 Miami (OH) D D C F+ F+ 33% 22% 46% C- F+ C+ A+ A F A+ C+ A+ B- F C- B+ B- 33% 9% 58% D+ C+ B A+ A+ D+ B- D+ C+
0.99 53% 40% 29% -5 -1 0.91 30% 1.3 .39 24% .45 76% .35 1.14 78% 40% 31% +4 +1 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 14% .31 79% .24
Dec
2		 UNC Asheville B A+ C A+ A+ 31% 22% 47% D- A+ D- A+ C C- A B A F B- F F F 35% 35% 31% D F C+ F F F D- D+ D-
1.19 79% 40% 43% +13 -1 1.27 25% 1.2 .29 17% .39 71% .28 1.26 53% 53% 47% +9 -2 1.16 28% 1.5 .41 12% .37 71% .26
Dec
6		 East Carolina B+ C+ A- F D+ 35% 31% 35% D- D B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D F A A+ C 42% 14% 44% F D+ F F F A B+ A A-
1.18 59% 47% 24% -3 -2 0.94 38% 1.6 .59 16% .41 88% .36 1.12 67% 29% 23% -5 +1 0.94 53% 1.3 .71 22% .29 63% .18
Dec
16		 N.C. A&T F F D- D F 26% 28% 46% F F B- F+ C- A C F D- D+ D- A C+ C 28% 28% 44% B- C+ F A+ C+ D- B F C
1.00 43% 33% 32% -7 -2 0.85 30% 0.9 .26 9% .32 53% .17 1.09 64% 29% 32% -2 -2 0.94 41% 0.8 .31 15% .33 83% .27
Jan
1		 Chattanooga C- C A+ F+ C+ 40% 19% 40% C C+ A- F C F A+ D A+ D+ F F C F 25% 15% 60% C- F B+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+
1.15 59% 63% 29% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.9 .38 18% .56 68% .38 1.07 79% 63% 33% +8 0 1.18 16% 0.4 .06 13% .16 56% .09
Jan
3		 Samford A+ F D A+ B 32% 44% 24% F C+ C+ A+ A- A+ A+ C- A+ F F A- B D- 31% 14% 55% D+ D- F D F F D A+ C+
1.36 44% 36% 67% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.4 .40 3% .47 73% .35 1.26 87% 29% 30% +4 0 1.10 31% 1.2 .36 9% .40 58% .24
Jan
7		 Wofford B F+ F A+ B- 44% 19% 37% C- C+ C+ A- B B B+ F C F A F F+ D+ 39% 14% 46% C D+ F+ F F F F+ C- F+
1.23 48% 30% 53% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.3 .42 13% .35 67% .23 1.40 45% 50% 38% 0 +1 1.04 34% 1.8 .60 6% .40 73% .29
Jan
10		 East Tennessee St. F F F D- F 43% 18% 39% C F B C- B- F A+ C+ A+ D F C C F 53% 17% 30% D- F A+ F B+ F A+ C+ A+
0.84 47% 0% 29% -14 +1 0.75 35% 0.9 .32 29% .49 76% .37 1.20 78% 40% 33% +11 +2 1.27 12% 2.0 .23 11% .13 75% .09
Jan
15		 The Citadel F B+ D+ F F 44% 27% 29% D- F B- F F+ B- B- F D- C B+ C+ D- D 28% 17% 56% C D+ A- A A- C- A- F B-
1.01 70% 36% 20% -2 0 0.98 36% 0.6 .21 13% .32 47% .15 0.96 47% 33% 37% -2 0 0.98 22% 0.8 .16 17% .19 82% .16
Jan
17		 Mercer B+ A- C A B+ 40% 18% 42% C+ B+ F D F+ A+ A C- A- F F C F F 40% 19% 42% D+ F F F F A- F C F
1.25 65% 40% 42% +8 +1 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 9% .34 74% .25 1.38 76% 38% 56% +21 0 1.44 44% 1.2 .52 20% .70 73% .51
Jan
21		 VMI B F B- A+ D 43% 28% 30% D+ D D C+ D+ A+ A+ D A+ F B- F B D 27% 13% 60% C+ D+ D- F F F F A+ D+
1.29 45% 46% 50% +4 -1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 8% .54 70% .38 1.18 50% 57% 29% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.6 .46 11% .37 59% .22
Jan
23		 Furman D+ A+ F F D+ 40% 13% 47% B+ C- F+ A- D+ C A C A- F F A+ F F 36% 15% 49% C+ F A+ F C F A F C
1.04 74% 17% 23% -4 +1 0.96 22% 1.1 .25 14% .33 72% .24 1.40 74% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 20% 1.4 .28 8% .20 92% .19
Jan
29		 Mercer D+ C F F F 38% 18% 45% C+ F C- B+ B- A B- D C+ F C A- F+ D 26% 12% 62% D+ D D+ F F F+ C+ B- C+
1.06 57% 20% 28% -8 0 0.88 32% 1.1 .36 12% .28 72% .20 1.31 60% 29% 39% +4 0 1.10 36% 1.4 .49 12% .33 71% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 The Citadel F B+ F F F 35% 17% 48% D+ F D+ B- C- D- A+ F B D+ F C D- F 23% 26% 51% A F+ C+ A+ A+ F D- B- D
0.97 71% 25% 22% -7 0 0.90 29% 1.1 .32 18% .41 57% .23 1.05 67% 36% 37% +4 -2 1.06 26% 0.2 .05 9% .32 65% .21
Feb
4		 Western Carolina C+ F B- A+ D 40% 19% 40% C+ D+ A D B D- A+ A+ A+ D- A+ F D- F 28% 26% 45% A D- D A B D F B D-
1.21 37% 44% 47% +1 0 1.04 39% 0.9 .36 18% .49 89% .44 1.17 40% 64% 38% +4 -1 1.08 37% 0.8 .29 15% .37 67% .25
Feb
8		 Furman C F B A+ B 44% 19% 38% B- B F+ F F C A+ D A B A- F+ A A 59% 9% 33% F B+ B- B- B- D+ D F F+
1.06 33% 44% 56% +2 +1 1.08 23% 0.6 .14 14% .35 68% .24 1.02 52% 50% 27% -6 +3 0.96 27% 0.9 .24 17% .33 76% .25
Feb
11		 VMI B A+ A+ B- B+ 16% 20% 64% D- B F+ C- F+ B+ C+ C+ C+ D+ D+ A+ D- F+ 38% 7% 55% F+ F B+ D B- C- A+ F+ A+
1.33 89% 64% 37% +13 -1 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 13% .32 74% .23 1.03 57% 0% 37% -1 +2 1.04 20% 1.0 .20 16% .15 78% .12
Feb
14		 Wofford A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 40% 22% 38% D A+ F+ D- F A+ A+ D+ A+ F F F B- F 39% 18% 43% B- F F F+ F C- F B F
1.41 55% 64% 53% +15 0 1.32 21% 1.0 .21 4% .57 76% .43 1.27 70% 56% 32% +6 0 1.16 43% 1.1 .49 14% .47 68% .32
Feb
18		 Western Carolina C- B A C+ B- 51% 12% 37% A B F+ F F D+ B- F+ C F D+ F+ F F 29% 25% 46% A- F A F F D- F F+ F
1.09 65% 50% 37% +7 +2 1.20 21% 0.3 .07 17% .34 70% .24 1.29 60% 46% 42% +8 -1 1.15 27% 2.1 .57 14% .36 77% .28
Feb
21		 East Tennessee St. C+ A+ D+ B A 33% 26% 41% F+ A- C- A+ B C C- F D F F F F F 36% 24% 40% B+ F B- F D+ B- A- F B-
1.12 87% 33% 37% +10 -1 1.20 29% 1.3 .36 19% .28 67% .19 1.30 78% 58% 45% +19 -1 1.38 25% 1.3 .33 18% .26 86% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 1.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 3.2 3.2 4th
5th 1.3 2.2 3.4 5th
6th 16.1 29.1 45.2 6th
7th 39.3 7.8 47.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 55.3 38.2 6.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 6.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 6.3
9-9 38.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.8 37.4
8-10 55.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.7 54.6
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 98.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 20.0%