UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#159
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#162
Pace62.1#340
Improvement-1.8#270

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#175
First Shot-0.1#177
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#149
Layup/Dunks-3.7#309
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#57
Freethrows-0.9#242
Improvement+1.5#105

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#166
First Shot+2.2#107
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#329
Layups/Dunks+3.4#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#169
Freethrows+0.4#160
Improvement-3.3#331
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 13.9% 9.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.4
.500 or above 92.6% 95.1% 76.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 98.4%
Conference Champion 22.8% 25.1% 7.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round13.3% 13.9% 9.7%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Away) - 86.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 37 - 78 - 11
Quad 49 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 164   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-64 61%     1 - 0 +6.7 +4.2 +3.2
  Nov 11, 2024 42   @ SMU L 68-81 10%     1 - 1 +1.1 -1.9 +3.6
  Nov 21, 2024 53   @ Indiana L 58-69 13%     1 - 2 +1.6 -7.2 +8.4
  Nov 25, 2024 305   Long Beach St. W 71-48 79%     2 - 2 +14.8 -0.2 +17.3
  Nov 26, 2024 146   San Jose St. L 64-69 47%     2 - 3 -3.9 -5.2 +1.0
  Nov 27, 2024 143   UTEP L 58-64 47%     2 - 4 -4.8 -4.3 -1.5
  Dec 03, 2024 107   High Point W 72-68 46%     3 - 4 +5.5 +7.8 -1.5
  Dec 07, 2024 333   @ N.C. A&T W 67-55 80%     4 - 4 +3.6 -4.2 +8.9
  Dec 14, 2024 245   @ North Florida L 77-89 62%     4 - 5 -14.6 -3.8 -10.6
  Dec 21, 2024 175   @ Elon L 69-73 45%     4 - 6 -2.2 +4.1 -6.8
  Jan 01, 2025 151   @ Wofford W 68-66 39%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +5.3 +1.7 +3.8
  Jan 04, 2025 165   Furman W 84-67 61%     6 - 6 2 - 0 +14.7 +18.6 -2.0
  Jan 09, 2025 138   @ Chattanooga W 78-75 37%     7 - 6 3 - 0 +6.8 +14.5 -7.3
  Jan 11, 2025 109   @ Samford L 69-76 28%     7 - 7 3 - 1 -0.6 +3.7 -4.9
  Jan 15, 2025 358   The Citadel W 70-57 93%     8 - 7 4 - 1 -3.6 -0.1 -1.8
  Jan 18, 2025 350   @ Western Carolina W 83-55 84%     9 - 7 5 - 1 +17.7 +13.0 +6.5
  Jan 22, 2025 222   Mercer L 78-79 73%     9 - 8 5 - 2 -6.9 -0.4 -6.4
  Jan 25, 2025 304   @ VMI W 60-57 72%     10 - 8 6 - 2 -2.6 -11.4 +9.0
  Jan 29, 2025 153   East Tennessee St. W 70-65 59%     11 - 8 7 - 2 +3.2 +13.2 -8.8
  Feb 01, 2025 151   Wofford L 62-74 58%     11 - 9 7 - 3 -13.7 -7.4 -7.6
  Feb 05, 2025 358   @ The Citadel W 71-59 87%    
  Feb 08, 2025 350   Western Carolina W 77-61 94%    
  Feb 12, 2025 304   VMI W 75-64 86%    
  Feb 15, 2025 165   @ Furman L 67-69 40%    
  Feb 19, 2025 153   @ East Tennessee St. L 66-69 38%    
  Feb 22, 2025 222   @ Mercer W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 27, 2025 138   Chattanooga W 72-70 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 109   Samford L 73-74 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.2 9.6 9.5 2.4 22.8 1st
2nd 1.1 12.8 12.7 1.9 28.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 7.5 12.9 1.3 21.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 10.1 1.7 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.7 2.8 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 1.8 0.1 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.7 9.3 21.6 28.7 23.6 11.4 2.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 2.4    2.2 0.2
14-4 83.3% 9.5    5.3 4.0 0.3
13-5 40.8% 9.6    1.5 4.7 3.1 0.4 0.0
12-6 4.3% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.8% 22.8 8.9 9.0 3.8 0.8 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.4% 25.9% 25.9% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.8
14-4 11.4% 21.9% 21.9% 13.3 0.2 1.5 0.9 0.0 8.9
13-5 23.6% 17.5% 17.5% 13.8 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.5 19.5
12-6 28.7% 12.3% 12.3% 14.2 0.5 1.8 1.2 0.0 25.1
11-7 21.6% 8.0% 8.0% 14.5 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.0 19.8
10-8 9.3% 6.5% 6.5% 14.9 0.1 0.5 0.1 8.7
9-9 2.7% 6.3% 6.3% 15.4 0.1 0.1 2.5
8-10 0.3% 7.7% 7.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.8 3.1 0.2 86.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.6 1.6 41.9 54.8 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%