UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#161
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#192
Pace63.0#326
Improvement-3.7#340

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#197
First Shot-1.0#205
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#176
Layup/Dunks-4.1#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#149
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#60
Freethrows-1.3#262
Improvement-0.7#238

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#143
First Shot+2.0#112
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#282
Layups/Dunks+3.6#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#173
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement-3.0#346
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 14.7% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 62.8% 77.9% 53.7%
.500 or above in Conference 80.8% 91.3% 74.4%
Conference Champion 13.2% 22.1% 7.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round11.2% 14.6% 9.1%
Second Round0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Away) - 37.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 411 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 188   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-64 66%     1 - 0 +4.5 +3.5 +1.7
  Nov 11, 2024 41   @ SMU L 68-81 9%     1 - 1 +1.5 -2.7 +4.7
  Nov 21, 2024 51   @ Indiana L 58-69 11%     1 - 2 +2.5 -6.7 +8.9
  Nov 25, 2024 258   Long Beach St. W 71-48 69%     2 - 2 +17.7 +2.1 +18.0
  Nov 26, 2024 162   San Jose St. L 64-69 50%     2 - 3 -5.1 -5.8 +0.3
  Nov 27, 2024 139   UTEP L 58-64 45%     2 - 4 -4.7 -3.5 -2.2
  Dec 03, 2024 123   High Point W 72-68 52%     3 - 4 +3.3 +7.9 -3.9
  Dec 07, 2024 324   @ N.C. A&T W 67-55 72%     4 - 4 +5.8 -2.8 +9.8
  Dec 14, 2024 207   @ North Florida L 77-89 47%     4 - 5 -11.3 -0.9 -10.2
  Dec 21, 2024 181   @ Elon L 69-73 42%     4 - 6 -2.0 +4.2 -6.7
  Jan 01, 2025 151   @ Wofford L 66-69 38%    
  Jan 04, 2025 113   Furman L 65-66 50%    
  Jan 09, 2025 172   @ Chattanooga L 68-70 41%    
  Jan 11, 2025 118   @ Samford L 74-80 29%    
  Jan 15, 2025 354   The Citadel W 73-57 92%    
  Jan 18, 2025 311   @ Western Carolina W 71-66 69%    
  Jan 22, 2025 235   Mercer W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 25, 2025 344   @ VMI W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 29, 2025 142   East Tennessee St. W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 151   Wofford W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 05, 2025 354   @ The Citadel W 70-60 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 311   Western Carolina W 74-63 85%    
  Feb 12, 2025 344   VMI W 76-61 90%    
  Feb 15, 2025 113   @ Furman L 63-69 29%    
  Feb 19, 2025 142   @ East Tennessee St. L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 22, 2025 235   @ Mercer W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 27, 2025 172   Chattanooga W 71-67 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 118   Samford W 77-76 50%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.4 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 13.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.2 6.1 3.1 0.5 0.1 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 4.9 6.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.8 7.0 2.4 0.2 15.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.8 6.8 2.4 0.1 15.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 5.2 1.9 0.1 0.0 13.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 2.9 0.9 0.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.7 8.6 11.9 14.4 15.2 13.9 11.3 7.7 4.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 97.1% 1.7    1.5 0.1
15-3 86.9% 3.5    2.7 0.8 0.0
14-4 56.5% 4.4    2.2 1.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 22.2% 2.5    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.2% 13.2 7.5 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 43.6% 43.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 38.6% 38.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.7% 35.4% 35.4% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1
15-3 4.1% 29.0% 29.0% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.9
14-4 7.7% 23.0% 23.0% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 6.0
13-5 11.3% 18.6% 18.6% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 9.2
12-6 13.9% 12.8% 12.8% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 12.1
11-7 15.2% 9.7% 9.7% 14.7 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.1 13.7
10-8 14.4% 7.3% 7.3% 15.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 13.3
9-9 11.9% 5.2% 5.2% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 11.3
8-10 8.6% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.3
7-11 5.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.6
6-12 3.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 2.9
5-13 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.8 3.1 1.0 88.7 0.0%