UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.9 #284
Expected Predictive Rating -8.1 #291
Pace 68.1 #217
Improvement +0.3 #161

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #190 C- C- B- B+ D-
Defense #339 D- C- F B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #320 1.14 #201 -3.6 #300
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #62 0.73 #208 +2.1 #76
Three Pointers 41% #191 0.99 #208 -0.6 #208
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #236 -2.1 #234
Freethrows 21.4 #18 70% #250 15.1 #45
Second Chance 27.1% #279 1.08 #143 0.29 #243
Turnovers 15.4% #105
Total Offense -0.7 #190

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #299 1.27 #304 +0.8 #151
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #159 0.79 #231 -0.6 #228
Three Pointers 45% #71 1.13 #326 -4.8 #337
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #316 -4.5 #315
Freethrows 14.8 #55 70% #79 10.3 #321
Second Chance 30.6% #173 1.13 #287 0.35 #248
Turnovers 12.5% #357
Total Defense -6.1 #339

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #321 -0.8% #101
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.8% #200 9.9% #330
Possession Length 17.5 #194 16.5 #64
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #303 0.17 #183
Improvement +3.6 #18 -3.2 #345

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 4.3% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 4.7% 13.1% 3.5%
.500 or above in Conference 48.6% 74.3% 44.8%
Conference Champion 1.7% 6.3% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.6% 2.2%
First Four1.9% 2.3% 1.8%
First Round1.7% 3.5% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 12.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 49 - 911 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 74 @Kansas St. L 64 - 93 6%  -7  0 - 1 -18 -12 F F F -2 D D A
 Sat, Nov 8 163 Elon L 90 - 92 OT 37%  -1  0 - 2 -6 +6 A+ F B- -12 C A F
 Wed, Nov 12 34 @North Carolina St. L 64 - 110 2%  -15  0 - 3 -29 -5 F C- C -21 D F F
 Sat, Nov 15 186 Austin Peay L 63 - 69 42%  -3  0 - 4 -11 -12 D- F A- +2 B- C C+
 Thu, Nov 20 207 @Queens L 94 - 101 24%  -8  0 - 5 -7 +19 B- B+ A+ -26 F D- F
 Sun, Nov 23 210 Youngstown St. W 68 - 62 34%  -9  1 - 5 +3 -7 D+ F F +10 A- A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 277 Delaware L 60 - 73 49%  -1  1 - 6 -20 -9 F F C+ -12 F A+ D
 Wed, Nov 26 93 Miami (OH) L 71 - 82 12%  +1  1 - 7 -5 -2 D- A+ F -2 C A+ D
 Tue, Dec 2 239 UNC Asheville L 77 - 82 40%  -0  1 - 8 -9 +8 A+ C- D+ -18 F F F
 Sat, Dec 6 266 @East Carolina W 82 - 78 36%  +2  2 - 8 +1 +11 D- A+ B -10 D+ F B+
 Tue, Dec 16 305 N.C. A&T L 65 - 71 67%  -6  2 - 9 -17 -9 F C A -9 C- B- F
 Thu, Jan 1 273 Chattanooga W 77 - 72 60%  +1  3 - 9 1 - 0 -4 +2 C D+ D -6 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 229 Samford W 89 - 82 50%  +8  4 - 9 2 - 0 +0 +18 B B A+ -17 F F F
 Wed, Jan 7 223 @Wofford L 85 - 97 26%  -11  4 - 10 2 - 1 -12 +11 B B B+ -24 F F F
 Sat, Jan 10 128 @East Tennessee St. L 69 - 81 13% 
 Thu, Jan 15 360 The Citadel W 80 - 69 86% 
 Sat, Jan 17 160 Mercer L 77 - 81 37% 
 Wed, Jan 21 332 @VMI W 78 - 77 54% 
 Sat, Jan 24 150 Furman L 73 - 77 34% 
 Thu, Jan 29 160 @Mercer L 74 - 84 19% 
 Sat, Jan 31 360 @The Citadel W 77 - 72 69% 
 Wed, Feb 4 283 Western Carolina W 80 - 77 61% 
 Sun, Feb 8 150 @Furman L 70 - 80 18% 
 Wed, Feb 11 332 VMI W 81 - 74 73% 
 Sat, Feb 14 223 Wofford L 77 - 78 48% 
 Wed, Feb 18 283 @Western Carolina L 77 - 80 39% 
 Sat, Feb 21 128 East Tennessee St. L 72 - 78 30% 
 Thu, Feb 26 273 @Chattanooga L 74 - 77 38% 
 Sat, Feb 28 229 @Samford L 74 - 80 29% 
Totals 10 - 19 8 - 10 -7 -1 C- C- B- -6 D- C- F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.6 3.9 0.7 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 7.4 5.9 1.0 0.0 17.4 5th
6th 0.3 3.5 9.0 6.5 1.2 0.0 20.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.3 8.0 5.6 1.0 0.0 18.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.7 3.6 0.6 0.0 11.6 8th
9th 0.3 1.4 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.4 9.7 15.6 18.1 17.0 14.0 9.4 4.9 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 94.3% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 66.5% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 30.0% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.2% 17.1% 17.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.9% 14.1% 14.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-5 2.2% 8.2% 8.2% 15.3 0.1 0.1 2.0
12-6 4.9% 6.6% 6.6% 15.7 0.1 0.2 4.6
11-7 9.4% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 8.9
10-8 14.0% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 13.5
9-9 17.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.5 16.5
8-10 18.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 17.8
7-11 15.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 15.5
6-12 9.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.6
5-13 5.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.3
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.9 97.4 0.0%