UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -9.0 #312
Expected Predictive Rating -9.0 #310
Pace 68.0 #210
Improvement -3.1 #309

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #226 D+ C- B- B- D+
Defense #347 D- C- F+ B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #268 1.14 #201 -2.2 #261
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #87 0.67 #306 +0.7 #143
Three Pointers 40% #212 0.93 #290 -2.4 #268
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #301 -3.9 #301
Freethrows 0.36 #21 68% #308 0.25 #80
Second Chance 27.7% #264 1.01 #200 0.28 #253
Turnovers 15.2% #94
Total Offense -2.1 #226

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #298 1.28 #323 +0.3 #166
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #189 0.76 #184 +0.1 #180
Three Pointers 45% #62 1.17 #346 -5.6 #353
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #328 -5.2 #329
Freethrows 0.25 #44 70% #68 0.18 #35
Second Chance 29.6% #137 1.13 #311 0.33 #239
Turnovers 12.3% #358
Total Defense -6.9 #347

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #286 -0.5% #126
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.3% #290 10.7% #347
Possession Length 17.3 #179 16.6 #79
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #297 0.16 #143
Improvement +0.0 #180 -3.1 #326

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 11.9% 19.4% 4.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.6% 3.1%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 51.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 48 - 109 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 92 @Kansas St. L 64 - 93 6% -7  0 - 1 -20 -13 D- F F -4 D D- A-
 Sat, Nov 8 192 Elon L 90 - 92 OT 36% -1  0 - 2 -7 +6 A F B- -13 B- B F
 Wed, Nov 12 23 @North Carolina St. L 64 - 110 1% -15  0 - 3 -27 -4 F D+ C -20 D+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 175 Austin Peay L 63 - 69 32% -3  0 - 4 -10 -13 D- F B+ +3 B C C
 Thu, Nov 20 208 @Queens L 94 - 101 20% -8  0 - 5 -7 +20 B- B A+ -27 F D F
 Sun, Nov 23 225 Youngstown St. W 68 - 62 30% -9  1 - 5 +2 -8 D F+ F +10 A- A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 286 Delaware L 60 - 73 43% -1  1 - 6 -20 -10 F F C -12 F A- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 90 Miami (OH) L 71 - 82 9% +1  1 - 7 -5 -4 F+ A F -1 C+ A D+
 Tue, Dec 2 209 UNC Asheville L 77 - 82 28% -0  1 - 8 -8 +9 A+ C C -17 F F F
 Sat, Dec 6 247 @East Carolina W 82 - 78 25% +2  2 - 8 +2 +11 D A+ B -9 C- F A-
 Tue, Dec 16 281 N.C. A&T L 65 - 71 53% -6  2 - 9 -16 -8 F C B+ -8 C C+ F+
 Thu, Jan 1 275 Chattanooga W 77 - 72 51% +1  3 - 9 1 - 0 -4 +3 C C D- -7 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 228 Samford W 89 - 82 41% +8  4 - 9 2 - 0 +0 +17 C+ B+ A+ -16 F+ F F+
 Wed, Jan 7 200 @Wofford L 85 - 97 19% -11  4 - 10 2 - 1 -12 +11 B- B B -23 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 131 @East Tennessee St. L 60 - 86 10% -10  4 - 11 2 - 2 -21 -13 F B- F -8 F A- F+
 Thu, Jan 15 344 The Citadel W 69 - 66 OT 71% -4  5 - 11 3 - 2 -12 -10 F+ F+ C+ -2 C- B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 148 Mercer L 92 - 102 26% -12  5 - 12 3 - 3 -12 +11 B+ F+ A+ -23 F F B+
 Wed, Jan 21 356 @VMI W 85 - 78 59% +6  6 - 12 4 - 3 -4 +10 D+ D+ A+ -14 D+ F F
 Fri, Jan 23 164 Furman L 66 - 89 29% -5  6 - 13 4 - 4 -26 -2 C- D- C+ -27 F C F
 Thu, Jan 29 148 @Mercer L 77 - 95 12% -14  6 - 14 4 - 5 -14 +1 F B- A -14 D+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 31 344 @The Citadel L 66 - 71 OT 49% -2  6 - 15 4 - 6 -14 -9 F C F+ -5 D- A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 277 Western Carolina W 81 - 80 51%
 Sun, Feb 8 164 @Furman L 68 - 80 14%
 Wed, Feb 11 356 VMI W 81 - 73 79%
 Sat, Feb 14 200 Wofford L 76 - 79 37%
 Wed, Feb 18 277 @Western Carolina L 77 - 83 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 131 East Tennessee St. L 71 - 79 23%
 Thu, Feb 26 275 @Chattanooga L 72 - 78 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 228 @Samford L 74 - 82 23%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 11 -9 -2 D+ C- B- -7 D- C- F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.3 4.8 6.0 1.3 0.1 12.4 5th
6th 0.1 4.7 10.5 2.0 0.1 17.2 6th
7th 0.0 3.4 14.6 4.0 0.1 22.1 7th
8th 0.0 3.2 15.0 7.3 0.2 25.9 8th
9th 2.5 9.6 7.3 0.4 19.7 9th
10th 0.3 0.1 0.3 10th
Total 2.8 12.9 25.7 27.2 19.5 8.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 2.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.6
9-9 8.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 8.6
8-10 19.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.4 19.1
7-11 27.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 27.1
6-12 25.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 25.6
5-13 12.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.9
4-14 2.8% 2.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%