Vermont
America East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#240
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#235
Pace60.4#351
Improvement-1.3#245

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#331
First Shot-3.4#279
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#326
Layup/Dunks-4.6#328
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#110
Freethrows-0.1#179
Improvement-0.3#199

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#134
First Shot+0.9#148
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#122
Layups/Dunks-1.9#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#198
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#51
Freethrows-0.6#231
Improvement-1.0#239
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 10.8% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 52.2% 69.9% 37.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.3% 96.8% 82.9%
Conference Champion 1.6% 3.0% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four5.0% 4.5% 5.4%
First Round7.2% 8.7% 5.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Away) - 46.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 32 - 43 - 7
Quad 412 - 915 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 96   @ UAB W 67-62 13%     1 - 0 +12.4 +0.9 +12.0
  Nov 06, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 43-94 1%     1 - 1 -25.3 -20.1 -5.5
  Nov 09, 2024 198   @ Merrimack L 51-65 30%     1 - 2 -13.2 -12.7 -1.9
  Nov 15, 2024 256   @ Iona L 59-62 44%     1 - 3 -6.0 -9.9 +3.7
  Nov 19, 2024 342   Buffalo W 78-67 82%     2 - 3 -3.3 +4.9 -7.3
  Nov 23, 2024 232   Delaware W 75-71 48%     3 - 3 -0.1 -2.2 +2.1
  Nov 24, 2024 326   Fairfield L 66-67 70%     3 - 4 -11.2 -6.3 -5.0
  Nov 30, 2024 206   Northeastern W 68-64 51%     4 - 4 -0.7 -4.4 +3.8
  Dec 03, 2024 214   Brown L 53-60 53%     4 - 5 -12.4 -10.7 -3.4
  Dec 07, 2024 69   @ Yale L 50-65 9%     4 - 6 -4.7 -12.9 +6.5
  Dec 15, 2024 239   @ Colgate L 60-65 40%     4 - 7 -7.1 -7.9 +0.2
  Dec 18, 2024 173   Miami (OH) W 75-67 43%     5 - 7 +5.1 +0.6 +4.6
  Dec 21, 2024 257   @ Dartmouth L 54-84 44%     5 - 8 -33.0 -17.0 -17.2
  Jan 04, 2025 357   @ New Hampshire W 60-40 74%     6 - 8 1 - 0 +8.7 -8.3 +19.6
  Jan 09, 2025 203   @ Umass Lowell W 67-63 31%     7 - 8 2 - 0 +4.4 -4.6 +9.2
  Jan 11, 2025 144   @ Bryant L 53-73 22%     7 - 9 2 - 1 -16.3 -11.7 -7.3
  Jan 16, 2025 313   Binghamton W 72-64 74%     8 - 9 3 - 1 -3.2 +3.6 -5.6
  Jan 23, 2025 344   NJIT W 68-64 82%     9 - 9 4 - 1 -10.3 -7.0 -3.2
  Jan 25, 2025 261   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 63-80 64%     9 - 10 4 - 2 -25.2 -12.0 -14.6
  Jan 30, 2025 313   @ Binghamton L 72-75 57%     9 - 11 4 - 3 -9.3 -2.4 -7.0
  Feb 01, 2025 199   Maine W 55-49 49%     10 - 11 5 - 3 +1.8 -6.8 +9.7
  Feb 08, 2025 280   @ Albany L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 13, 2025 357   New Hampshire W 68-56 87%    
  Feb 15, 2025 199   @ Maine L 58-63 29%    
  Feb 20, 2025 144   Bryant L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 22, 2025 203   Umass Lowell L 68-69 52%    
  Feb 27, 2025 344   @ NJIT W 62-57 65%    
  Mar 01, 2025 261   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70-71 43%    
  Mar 04, 2025 280   Albany W 67-63 68%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 5.0 8.0 3.9 0.5 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.7 14.0 16.9 6.7 0.6 41.0 3rd
4th 1.9 11.6 10.9 2.2 0.1 26.7 4th
5th 0.4 4.3 3.5 0.3 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 2.0 0.2 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.2 2.2 8.3 18.0 25.9 24.1 14.9 5.3 1.0 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 56.3% 0.6    0.2 0.4 0.0
12-4 15.6% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2
11-5 1.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 1.0% 25.2% 25.2% 14.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.8
12-4 5.3% 17.3% 17.3% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 4.4
11-5 14.9% 13.7% 13.7% 15.8 0.4 1.6 12.9
10-6 24.1% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 0.1 2.4 21.6
9-7 25.9% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.1 1.9 23.9
8-8 18.0% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2 16.8
7-9 8.3% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.4 7.9
6-10 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 2.1
5-11 0.2% 0.2
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.1 1.2 8.0 90.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.5 19.2 11.5 69.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%