Vermont
America East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.0 #211
Expected Predictive Rating -2.7 #206
Pace 62.4 #337
Improvement -3.6 #326

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #185 C+ D- B- C- C
Defense #251 C- C+ F+ C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #287 1.23 #97 -1.0 #215
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #238 0.80 #104 -0.8 #221
Three Pointers 48% #47 1.02 #185 +3.6 #62
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #124 +1.9 #124
Freethrows 0.27 #270 73% #160 0.20 #246
Second Chance 23.7% #344 0.95 #283 0.22 #344
Turnovers 15.1% #90
Total Offense -0.7 #185

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #266 1.22 #261 +0.6 #154
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #81 0.70 #82 -0.5 #225
Three Pointers 41% #192 1.09 #288 -1.4 #250
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #221 -1.3 #222
Freethrows 0.32 #245 74% #266 0.24 #263
Second Chance 27.1% #62 1.06 #229 0.29 #111
Turnovers 12.4% #356
Total Defense -2.3 #251

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #178 -1.2% #80
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.4% #118 3.7% #251
Possession Length 18.8 #327 17.3 #194
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.07 #363 0.13 #57
Improvement -5.8 #360 +2.1 #67

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.8% 41.3% 36.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 67.1% 73.8% 50.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.0% 7.7% 12.0%
First Round35.9% 37.9% 30.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Away) - 70.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 419 - 620 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 280 @Brown W 89 - 84 2OT 53% -3  1 - 0 +1 +6 D+ D+ A -6 F A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 256 @Northeastern W 85 - 74 48% +0  2 - 0 +9 +8 A+ F D+ +0 B F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 204 @Buffalo L 90 - 94 37% -0  2 - 1 -4 +10 A+ D C -14 F A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 24 89 Liberty L 73 - 79 19% -10  2 - 2 +0 +3 B- D+ B- -3 D B C-
 Tue, Nov 25 119 Rhode Island L 65 - 80 28% -7  2 - 3 -12 +1 C- B C -15 D D- D
 Wed, Nov 26 213 Princeton W 79 - 74 50% +7  3 - 3 +2 +13 B+ B B- -10 F+ C- F
 Sun, Nov 30 80 Yale L 74 - 77 25% -3  3 - 4 +1 +9 A+ D D -8 B- A F
 Wed, Dec 3 184 @Oregon St. L 58 - 80 33% -16  3 - 5 -21 -7 D+ F C -17 F B+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 283 @Pepperdine W 65 - 56 54% +1  4 - 5 +5 +0 B F D+ +6 B A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 14 201 Merrimack W 66 - 59 60% +7  5 - 5 +1 +5 C- D- A+ -2 B- D+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 174 Siena W 83 - 69 54% +12  6 - 5 +10 +8 B+ C A+ +2 B+ A- F+
 Sat, Dec 20 231 Iona L 78 - 83 65% -0  6 - 6 -12 +6 C D- A+ -18 D F F
 Tue, Dec 30 213 @Princeton L 69 - 75 OT 39% -4  6 - 7 -6 -0 D B- C -6 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 320 @New Hampshire W 80 - 61 64% +9  7 - 7 1 - 0 +12 +13 A C+ B +1 D C+ B+
 Thu, Jan 8 361 Binghamton W 60 - 59 92% -1  8 - 7 2 - 0 -18 -14 D- F C- -4 C- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 346 Maine W 67 - 62 86% -1  9 - 7 3 - 0 -10 +1 C+ F A -10 B+ C+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 316 @Albany L 68 - 75 63% -3  9 - 8 3 - 1 -14 -6 C F F -7 D- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 314 @Umass Lowell W 77 - 68 62% +5  10 - 8 4 - 1 +3 +4 B- F B -1 B D- C
 Sat, Jan 24 347 @Bryant W 62 - 52 71% +8  11 - 8 5 - 1 +1 +6 D+ C- B- -2 A+ F F+
 Thu, Jan 29 261 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 64 - 55 70% +2  12 - 8 6 - 1 +0 -7 C F C +8 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 324 NJIT L 77 - 79 83% -9  12 - 9 6 - 2 -15 +0 D- C+ B -15 F D F
 Thu, Feb 5 346 @Maine W 67 - 61 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 320 New Hampshire W 74 - 64 83%
 Thu, Feb 12 361 @Binghamton W 74 - 64 82%
 Sat, Feb 14 347 Bryant W 73 - 61 86%
 Thu, Feb 19 261 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 69 - 70 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 324 @NJIT W 72 - 68 65%
 Thu, Feb 26 314 Umass Lowell W 77 - 68 81%
 Tue, Mar 3 316 Albany W 75 - 65 81%
Totals 18 - 11 12 - 4 -3 -1 C+ D- B- -2 C- C+ F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.8 7.5 22.5 25.6 10.7 67.1 1st
2nd 0.4 4.7 10.4 7.6 0.8 23.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 3.7 1.7 0.1 7.4 3rd
4th 0.2 0.9 0.3 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.5 3.2 9.4 19.5 30.2 26.5 10.7 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 10.7    10.7
13-3 96.9% 25.6    21.9 3.8 0.0
12-4 74.5% 22.5    12.9 8.8 0.7
11-5 38.2% 7.5    1.9 3.7 1.7 0.2
10-6 8.3% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 67.1% 67.1 47.4 16.5 2.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 10.7% 51.2% 51.2% 14.2 0.0 0.6 2.9 1.9 0.0 5.2
13-3 26.5% 44.4% 44.4% 15.3 0.0 0.9 5.9 4.9 14.7
12-4 30.2% 39.9% 39.9% 15.7 0.2 3.1 8.8 18.1
11-5 19.5% 35.3% 35.3% 15.8 0.0 1.0 5.9 12.6
10-6 9.4% 28.9% 28.9% 15.9 0.3 2.4 6.7
9-7 3.2% 24.5% 24.5% 15.9 0.0 0.7 2.4
8-8 0.5% 25.9% 25.9% 16.0 0.1 0.4
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 39.8% 39.8% 0.0% 15.4 60.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.5% 100.0% 14.2 0.4 11.3 53.5 34.3 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0%