Vermont
America East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.3 #198
Expected Predictive Rating -1.8 #195
Pace 61.7 #348
Improvement -2.5 #303

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #141 B- D B D C
Defense #269 D- B F C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #268 1.28 #65 +0.2 #165
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #223 0.76 #160 -0.9 #216
Three Pointers 47% #68 1.02 #174 +3.2 #82
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #108 +2.6 #109
Freethrows 14.6 #314 73% #165 10.7 #292
Second Chance 23.9% #335 1.07 #153 0.26 #302
Turnovers 14.8% #70
Total Offense +0.9 #141

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #283 1.27 #307 +0.1 #174
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #77 0.77 #206 -1.7 #292
Three Pointers 41% #189 1.16 #344 -3.1 #303
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #318 -4.7 #319
Freethrows 17.3 #189 72% #179 12.5 #171
Second Chance 27.5% #77 0.97 #86 0.27 #56
Turnovers 12.7% #354
Total Defense -3.2 #269

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #181 -1.4% #66
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.1% #109 10.7% #337
Possession Length 18.7 #320 17.5 #226
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #361 0.13 #53
Improvement -3.7 #353 +1.2 #98

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.4% 42.1% 35.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 98.2% 98.7% 94.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.5% 97.0%
Conference Champion 66.6% 69.4% 46.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four8.3% 7.7% 12.3%
First Round37.5% 38.6% 30.1%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Home) - 87.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 419 - 520 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 247 @Brown W 89 - 84 2OT 48%  -3  1 - 0 +3 +8 D+ D+ A+ -5 F A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 233 @Northeastern W 85 - 74 45%  +0  2 - 0 +10 +10 A+ F C- +0 B+ F A
 Tue, Nov 18 179 @Buffalo L 90 - 94 35%  -0  2 - 1 -2 +11 A+ D C -13 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 99 Liberty L 73 - 79 24%  -10  2 - 2 -1 +3 B F C -4 F A C-
 Tue, Nov 25 141 Rhode Island L 65 - 80 37%  -7  2 - 3 -14 +1 C- B- C -16 F D F
 Wed, Nov 26 242 Princeton W 79 - 74 59%  +7  3 - 3 +0 +13 A- B+ B+ -12 F C- F
 Sun, Nov 30 80 Yale L 74 - 77 26%  -3  3 - 4 +1 +8 A+ F D -8 B- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 182 @Oregon St. L 58 - 80 36%  -16  3 - 5 -21 -7 D- F C+ -16 F A- F
 Sat, Dec 6 274 @Pepperdine W 65 - 56 55%  +1  4 - 5 +5 +1 B+ F D+ +6 B A+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 237 Merrimack W 66 - 59 68%  +7  5 - 5 -0 +4 D+ F A+ -3 C+ D- C
 Wed, Dec 17 190 Siena W 83 - 69 60%  +12  6 - 5 +9 +9 B+ C A+ +0 B A F
 Sat, Dec 20 214 Iona L 78 - 83 64%  -0  6 - 6 -11 +6 C+ F A+ -17 D F F
 Tue, Dec 30 242 @Princeton L 69 - 75 OT 47%  -4  6 - 7 -8 -0 F B+ C -8 F A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 344 @New Hampshire W 80 - 61 73%  +9  7 - 7 1 - 0 +10 +13 A+ C B+ -1 F C+ B+
 Thu, Jan 8 359 Binghamton W 60 - 59 92%  -1  8 - 7 2 - 0 -17 -14 F F C -3 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 339 Maine W 70 - 58 88% 
 Mon, Jan 19 322 @Albany W 75 - 70 66% 
 Thu, Jan 22 286 @Umass Lowell W 75 - 73 55% 
 Sat, Jan 24 317 @Bryant W 70 - 66 65% 
 Thu, Jan 29 267 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 75 - 68 74% 
 Sat, Jan 31 351 NJIT W 77 - 63 90% 
 Thu, Feb 5 339 @Maine W 67 - 61 71% 
 Sat, Feb 7 344 New Hampshire W 75 - 63 88% 
 Thu, Feb 12 359 @Binghamton W 75 - 65 82% 
 Sat, Feb 14 317 Bryant W 73 - 63 82% 
 Thu, Feb 19 267 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 72 - 71 53% 
 Sat, Feb 21 351 @NJIT W 74 - 66 75% 
 Thu, Feb 26 286 Umass Lowell W 78 - 70 75% 
 Tue, Mar 3 322 Albany W 78 - 67 83% 
Totals 18 - 11 12 - 4 -2 +1 B- D B -3 D- B F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 4.1 12.1 18.3 17.6 10.6 3.3 66.6 1st
2nd 0.4 3.2 7.2 6.6 2.6 0.2 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 3.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.2 8.1 13.3 19.1 20.9 17.8 10.6 3.3 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.3    3.3
15-1 100.0% 10.6    10.5 0.1
14-2 98.8% 17.6    16.4 1.2
13-3 87.6% 18.3    14.5 3.6 0.1
12-4 63.5% 12.1    6.6 4.8 0.7 0.0
11-5 31.0% 4.1    1.1 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
10-6 6.5% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 66.6% 66.6 52.5 11.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.3% 60.2% 60.2% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 1.3
15-1 10.6% 53.9% 53.9% 14.4 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.7 0.2 4.9
14-2 17.8% 51.6% 51.6% 15.1 0.1 1.3 5.5 2.3 8.6
13-3 20.9% 43.2% 43.2% 15.5 0.0 0.3 3.9 4.8 11.9
12-4 19.1% 38.6% 38.6% 15.7 0.1 1.7 5.6 11.7
11-5 13.3% 32.8% 32.8% 15.9 0.0 0.6 3.8 9.0
10-6 8.1% 27.1% 27.1% 15.9 0.1 2.1 5.9
9-7 4.2% 23.1% 23.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0 3.3
8-8 1.8% 21.1% 21.1% 16.0 0.4 1.4
7-9 0.6% 19.8% 19.8% 16.0 0.1 0.5
6-10 0.2% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 41.4% 41.4% 0.0% 15.3 58.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 13.3 0.3 12.8 50.1 33.5 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%