Vermont
America East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.8 229
Results Rating -3.7 229
Pace 63.4 317
Improvement -3.8 320

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 212 C+ D- C+ D+ C+
Defense C- 243 C- B- F+ D+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 284 B- 62% 88 -0.6 209
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 292 C+ 40% 103 -1.0 234
Three Pointers 48% 44 C 34% 197 +3.3 74
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 171 C+ +1.4 117
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 123
Second Chance D- 23.6% 343 D+ 0.97 266 D- 0.23 341
Turnovers C+ 16.0% 125
Freethrows D+ 0.28 267 C+ 73% 165 D+ 0.20 253
Total Offense C- -1.4 212

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 38% 321 C 11.3% 198
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 265 C+ 4.2% 118
Three Pointers C+ 86% 148 C+ 0.7% 148
Total C- 52% 253 C+ 5.0% 114

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 249 C- 60% 227 -0.6 154
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 86 B 35% 61 +0.2 206
Three Pointers 40% 210 D- 38% 338 +2.1 282
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 91 D+ +2.2 265
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 237
Second Chance B 26.8% 59 C 1.04 200 B- 0.28 81
Turnovers F+ 12.9% 354
Freethrows C- 0.33 243 D+ 74% 271 D+ 0.24 266
Total Defense C- -2.3 243

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 41% 48 C- 10.2% 198
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 88 C- 4.3% 203
Three Pointers C- 85% 206 D+ 0.4% 294
Total B- 52% 112 C- 4.9% 229

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.8 321 17.2 171
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 363 0.14 74
Improvement -5.5 #358 +1.7 #95

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 250 226 197
Results Rating Rank 247 225 166
Conference Record 11 - 5 12 - 4 12 - 4
Conference Finish 3 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36% 37% 31%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 15% 19% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four9% 7% 17%
First Round31% 33% 23%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Umass Lowell (Home) - 77.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 30 - 40 - 6
Quad 419 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 267 @Brown W 89 - 84 2OT 47% -3  26% 1 - 0 C+ +2 B- +4 D D+ A+ C- -3 F A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 292 @Northeastern W 85 - 74 53% +0  37% 2 - 0 B- +6 B- +5 A+ F D+ C+ +1 B- F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 207 @Buffalo L 90 - 94 34% -0  40% 2 - 1 C- -4 B+ +8 A D C+ F -12 F A+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 107 Liberty L 73 - 79 23% -10  1% 2 - 2 C- -2 C- -1 B- D+ B- C -1 D- B- D+
 Tue, Nov 25 124 Rhode Island L 65 - 80 27% -7  11% 2 - 3 D- -12 C- -1 C- B+ C- F -13 D- D- D
 Wed, Nov 26 254 Princeton W 79 - 74 55% +7  69% 3 - 3 C -0 B+ +8 B B B- D- -7 F C- F
 Sun, Nov 30 85 Yale L 74 - 77 23% -3  19% 3 - 4 C +1 B +6 A D D- D -5 B- A F
 Wed, Dec 3 158 @Oregon St. L 58 - 80 26% -16  0% 3 - 5 F -19 F+ -8 D+ F C F -13 F A- D-
 Sat, Dec 6 281 @Pepperdine W 65 - 56 50% +1  35% 4 - 5 B- +5 D+ -4 B- F D+ A +10 B+ A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 14 160 Merrimack W 66 - 59 47% +7  98% 5 - 5 C+ +4 B- +4 C- F+ A+ C+ +2 B D+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 191 Siena W 83 - 69 55% +12  93% 6 - 5 B +9 B- +5 B+ C A B +4 A- A- F+
 Sat, Dec 20 249 Iona L 78 - 83 65% -0  41% 6 - 6 D- -13 C+ +2 C- D- A+ F -15 D F F
 Tue, Dec 30 254 @Princeton L 69 - 75 OT 43% -4  10% 6 - 7 D+ -8 D -5 F+ B D+ C- -3 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 346 @New Hampshire W 80 - 61 72% +9  87% 7 - 7 1 - 0 B +9 A- +10 A- B- B C+ +1 D- C B+
 Thu, Jan 8 359 Binghamton W 60 - 59 92% -1  32% 8 - 7 2 - 0 F -18 F -17 D- F D+ C -1 C- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 343 Maine W 67 - 62 86% -1  30% 9 - 7 3 - 0 D -10 D+ -2 B- F A D- -7 A- C+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 316 @Albany L 68 - 75 60% -3  36% 9 - 8 3 - 1 D- -13 F+ -10 C- F F D+ -4 D- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 311 @Umass Lowell W 77 - 68 58% +5  82% 10 - 8 4 - 1 C+ +3 C +1 B- F B+ B- +2 B+ D C+
 Sat, Jan 24 354 @Bryant W 62 - 52 76% +8  98% 11 - 8 5 - 1 C -1 C +1 D- D+ B C+ +1 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 234 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 64 - 55 62% +2  66% 12 - 8 6 - 1 C+ +2 F+ -8 C F C- A+ +11 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 318 NJIT L 77 - 79 80% -9  1% 12 - 9 6 - 2 F+ -15 C- -2 D C B+ F -12 F+ D- F
 Thu, Feb 5 343 @Maine L 70 - 76 71% -9  3% 12 - 10 6 - 3 F+ -15 C+ +3 C A F F -19 F C D-
 Sat, Feb 7 346 New Hampshire W 80 - 57 87% +18  94% 13 - 10 7 - 3 B- +7 C+ +2 A F D+ B+ +6 B A- C
 Thu, Feb 12 359 @Binghamton W 73 - 65 81% +2  77% 14 - 10 8 - 3 D+ -5 D -4 C+ F D C -0 F+ C C-
 Sat, Feb 14 354 Bryant W 90 - 63 89% +15  86% 15 - 10 9 - 3 B +10 A- +11 A+ C- D+ C+ +0 D- A- F+
 Thu, Feb 19 234 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 62 - 75 39% -10  2% 15 - 11 9 - 4 D- -14 F -11 F F B+ D+ -3 B D+ D-
 Sat, Feb 21 318 @NJIT W 70 - 64 61% -1  54% 16 - 11 10 - 4 C -1 C +0 B D C C -0 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 311 Umass Lowell W 78 - 70 78%
 Tue, Mar 3 316 Albany W 75 - 66 79%
Totals 18 - 11 12 - 4 -4 C- -1 B+ C+ C+ C- -2 C C+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B- C+ C C+ 35% 28% 48% C+ C+ D- D+ D- C+ D+ C+ D+ C- C- B D- D+ 36% 23% 40% B- C- B C B- F+ C- D+ D+
1.07 62% 40% 34% +1 0 1.05 24% 1.0 .23 16% .28 73% .20 1.12 60% 35% 38% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .28 13% .33 74% .20
Nov
9		 Brown B- D- C+ D D 33% 21% 45% C- D D C+ D+ A+ D+ A+ C+ C- B- C+ F F 44% 15% 42% D+ F A- A+ A+ F F A+ C-
1.09 50% 43% 30% -4 0 0.92 26% 1.0 .26 12% .31 86% .27 1.03 52% 33% 42% +2 +1 1.08 22% 0.7 .16 16% .35 54% .19
Nov
15		 Northeastern B- D+ F A+ A 55% 6% 39% A A+ F F+ F D+ F A+ F C+ B- A+ F B- 46% 27% 27% B+ B- D F F A- F F F
1.22 57% 33% 60% +14 +3 1.37 22% 0.8 .19 19% .21 83% .18 1.06 55% 15% 46% -3 0 0.96 30% 1.4 .42 21% .38 76% .29
Nov
18		 Buffalo B+ C+ A A+ A 43% 8% 49% B+ A F A+ D C+ A A A+ F F F F F 41% 16% 43% C- F A A+ A+ F+ F F F
1.23 64% 50% 48% +14 +2 1.33 19% 1.4 .26 16% .36 82% .30 1.29 70% 50% 43% +13 +1 1.29 19% 0.5 .10 12% .58 84% .48
Nov
24		 Liberty C- B- A C B- 34% 20% 46% C B- F+ A D+ B- B- C- B- C D- B F D- 50% 6% 44% C- D- A F B- D+ D A+ B-
1.08 59% 50% 35% +3 0 1.08 23% 1.4 .33 16% .27 73% .20 1.17 69% 33% 43% +12 +3 1.31 10% 1.3 .14 12% .30 50% .15
Nov
25		 Rhode Island C- B A+ F C- 29% 9% 62% C+ C- D+ A+ B+ C- A+ C- A F F+ A+ C D 52% 5% 43% F D- F B+ D- D F B F
1.02 62% 50% 29% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.4 .39 22% .46 70% .32 1.25 68% 0% 33% +3 +3 1.14 48% 0.8 .39 17% .72 68% .49
Nov
26		 Princeton B+ C A+ D- B 38% 21% 40% D+ B C A B B- F+ C- F+ D- F C C- F 21% 25% 55% A F A F C- F A+ A+ A+
1.24 60% 73% 29% +5 0 1.12 29% 1.3 .39 13% .23 69% .16 1.16 91% 38% 34% +7 -2 1.13 19% 1.6 .30 8% .20 33% .07
Nov
30		 Yale B A+ A B- A+ 28% 14% 58% C+ A C+ F D D- A+ B+ A+ D D+ C B B- 44% 25% 31% B- B- A+ D+ A F D C D
1.19 83% 50% 36% +10 0 1.23 31% 0.8 .23 18% .43 77% .33 1.24 62% 42% 33% +2 0 1.06 23% 1.3 .30 5% .37 77% .29
Dec
3		 Oregon St. F+ B F C C 33% 29% 38% F D+ B- F F C F B F+ F D- D- F F 22% 22% 56% A- F B A+ A- D- A+ F A-
0.93 63% 21% 33% -4 -1 0.92 34% 0.5 .16 14% .24 77% .19 1.29 64% 45% 50% +16 -1 1.32 23% 1.0 .23 14% .24 92% .23
Dec
6		 Pepperdine D+ B+ F B B- 38% 6% 56% B- B- F F F D+ D F D- A C+ A+ B A- 28% 15% 58% D+ B+ B A+ A+ C+ F F F
1.04 67% 0% 37% +3 +2 1.13 23% 0.6 .13 18% .21 64% .14 0.90 55% 17% 30% -7 0 0.88 24% 0.5 .12 19% .40 85% .34
Dec
14		 Merrimack B- A+ A F C- 38% 19% 43% C+ C- D- D F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A F A- B+ 48% 11% 41% D B D C D+ C- C+ D+ C+
1.13 69% 50% 17% -5 0 0.93 34% 0.9 .31 12% .47 83% .39 1.01 43% 60% 28% -9 +2 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 15% .32 81% .26
Dec
17		 Siena B- A+ A+ F+ B 40% 15% 45% B B+ F A+ C A B A A- B A+ B- C- B+ 31% 39% 31% A A- B- A+ A- F+ A- F B
1.19 76% 50% 29% +6 +1 1.15 20% 1.5 .30 11% .32 80% .26 0.99 44% 39% 33% -4 -3 0.88 27% 0.7 .20 13% .21 85% .18
Dec
20		 Iona C+ A+ D- D- C 32% 22% 46% D C- F C+ D- A+ D F+ D- F F D- A F 35% 35% 29% A+ D A- F F F F C- F
1.15 74% 31% 30% 0 -1 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 7% .22 64% .14 1.22 78% 44% 27% +6 -2 1.10 19% 2.2 .41 9% .39 71% .27
Dec
30		 Princeton D F+ D- F+ F 46% 12% 42% B+ F+ C+ A- B D+ D+ A+ C+ C- F A+ F F 25% 17% 58% B- F A- A+ A+ C- D+ F F+
1.03 50% 33% 27% -9 +2 0.88 30% 1.3 .38 15% .28 81% .23 1.11 67% 13% 46% +9 0 1.19 21% 0.6 .12 16% .34 84% .28
Jan
3		 New Hampshire A- B A+ B+ A 38% 21% 40% C- A- D+ A B- B F A+ F C+ A+ D F F+ 32% 21% 47% A- D- B- D C B+ A- F B-
1.25 65% 55% 38% +9 0 1.19 28% 1.3 .34 12% .16 89% .14 0.95 40% 40% 41% 0 -1 1.00 23% 1.0 .23 22% .20 80% .16
Jan
8		 Binghamton F B- F C F+ 50% 18% 32% C+ D- F F F D+ A+ F C+ C A+ F C+ D- 24% 39% 37% A+ C- B+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+
0.98 64% 13% 36% -1 +1 1.02 23% 0.9 .20 13% .45 54% .24 0.96 42% 55% 32% +1 -3 0.98 15% 0.0 .00 11% .26 64% .17
Jan
15		 Maine D+ C B+ B- B- 38% 19% 43% C B- F A+ F A D- C+ D D- A A+ A- A 45% 16% 39% D- A- A- F C+ F F F F
1.08 61% 44% 35% +3 0 1.09 14% 1.5 .21 13% .26 71% .19 1.00 45% 25% 26% -12 +1 0.80 13% 1.4 .18 3% .42 72% .30
Jan
19		 Albany F+ B- F C D+ 41% 14% 45% B- C- F D+ F F D D+ D D+ C B+ F D- 38% 18% 44% C D- A+ B A+ F F F F
1.00 62% 14% 35% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.1 .24 19% .27 73% .20 1.10 58% 33% 41% +4 0 1.10 19% 0.8 .16 13% .40 75% .30
Jan
22		 Umass Lowell C C- A+ B B 46% 18% 37% C B- F+ F F B+ F A+ F B- B A+ D B- 23% 35% 42% A+ B+ C F D C+ B- F D+
1.14 58% 60% 38% +6 +1 1.16 24% 0.5 .12 10% .13 88% .12 1.01 50% 28% 36% -4 -3 0.88 31% 1.3 .38 21% .28 80% .22
Jan
24		 Bryant C D+ D C- D 28% 23% 50% F D- A F D+ B A+ C+ A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 26% 44% A+ A+ D F F F F F+ F
1.17 55% 33% 35% -1 -1 0.98 46% 0.7 .31 11% .43 75% .32 0.98 58% 20% 6% -23 -1 0.54 31% 1.3 .40 15% .49 82% .40
Jan
29		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F+ F A+ B- C 27% 13% 60% C- C F F F C- A+ F A A+ C A+ A+ A+ 26% 21% 53% B- A+ A F C+ F F B F+
1.00 42% 67% 37% +2 0 1.07 15% 0.6 .09 14% .40 59% .24 0.86 58% 20% 20% -15 -1 0.70 14% 1.4 .19 11% .37 71% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 NJIT C- C- B- F F+ 45% 9% 45% A- D C- B C B+ B+ D+ B F B- F F+ F+ 47% 23% 30% F+ F+ F+ D D- F C- F D
1.11 56% 40% 24% -8 +2 0.91 32% 1.2 .37 12% .41 68% .28 1.14 52% 50% 38% +1 0 1.06 31% 1.0 .31 13% .31 79% .25
Feb
5		 Maine C+ D+ A+ C- C- 36% 9% 56% B C C+ A+ A F A+ D+ A F D- D- F F 40% 21% 40% C- F B- F C D- F B F+
1.11 56% 50% 32% -1 +1 1.02 38% 1.4 .53 22% .43 67% .29 1.21 65% 44% 53% +15 0 1.33 16% 1.3 .20 17% .44 61% .27
Feb
7		 New Hampshire C+ B- D- A+ A 30% 6% 65% B A C- F F D+ F A- F B+ A+ C+ B A- 57% 6% 36% F B A B A- C F B F
1.18 63% 33% 43% +10 +1 1.24 28% 0.4 .11 16% .19 82% .16 0.84 41% 33% 29% -13 +3 0.83 17% 0.8 .14 19% .40 64% .26
Feb
12		 Binghamton D A+ A+ F B- 43% 21% 36% D+ C+ D- F F D C- D- D+ C D- B+ F F 33% 37% 31% A+ F+ B F C C- B+ A+ A+
1.11 85% 60% 18% +7 0 1.17 26% 0.9 .22 14% .32 67% .21 0.99 63% 33% 47% +6 -2 1.08 16% 1.0 .16 20% .30 63% .19
Feb
14		 Bryant A- A- D A+ A+ 52% 20% 28% C A+ F A+ C- D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ C+ F+ C- F+ 33% 14% 53% C+ D- A B+ A- F+ C F D+
1.35 67% 33% 62% +15 +1 1.35 24% 1.3 .32 15% .44 84% .37 0.94 53% 43% 33% -2 +1 1.00 20% 0.9 .17 18% .26 86% .22
Feb
19		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F F F C+ F 34% 17% 48% C- F F C- F B+ F+ A+ D+ D+ D+ A+ F+ B- 27% 27% 47% B+ B D C- D+ D- F D- F
0.92 40% 10% 36% -10 0 0.83 17% 1.0 .17 10% .17 80% .13 1.11 62% 8% 39% -4 -2 0.92 26% 1.0 .26 12% .42 80% .34
Feb
21		 NJIT C A+ A+ F B 47% 13% 40% B+ B F A D C B F D+ C A B F D+ 42% 31% 27% C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F+
1.10 73% 67% 21% +3 +2 1.11 22% 1.3 .28 14% .39 57% .22 1.01 45% 33% 46% -2 -1 0.96 15% 0.4 .06 9% .33 84% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 14.3 14.6 1st
2nd 1.0 25.2 47.6 73.7 2nd
3rd 3.1 7.8 10.8 3rd
4th 0.9 0.9 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 4.9 33.3 61.8 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 23.1% 14.3    0.7 7.2 6.4
11-5 0.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total 14.6% 14.6 0.7 7.2 6.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 61.8% 37.5% 37.5% 15.4 0.0 0.9 11.0 11.3 38.7
11-5 33.3% 33.6% 33.6% 15.9 0.0 1.1 10.1 22.1
10-6 4.9% 25.5% 25.5% 16.0 0.0 1.2 3.7
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 35.6% 35.6% 0.0% 15.6 64.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 23.2% 100.0% 15.4 0.0 4.0 47.3 48.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 14.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.0%
Lose Out 1.4%