Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#109
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#103
Pace81.5#3
Improvement+1.6#99

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#171
First Shot+1.7#123
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#294
Layup/Dunks-1.4#231
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#109
Freethrows+3.4#27
Improvement+1.1#103

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#68
First Shot+4.4#54
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#201
Layups/Dunks+5.7#29
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#124
Freethrows-3.0#343
Improvement+0.5#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.8% 20.2% 15.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 11.8 12.4
.500 or above 90.8% 97.9% 90.0%
.500 or above in Conference 81.8% 89.2% 81.0%
Conference Champion 19.2% 26.5% 18.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.6% 1.8%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round15.8% 20.2% 15.3%
Second Round2.7% 4.3% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan (Away) - 9.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 38 - 510 - 11
Quad 49 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 101   Wichita St. L 84-91 59%     0 - 1 -5.3 -0.7 -3.5
  Nov 09, 2024 107   @ Grand Canyon L 72-74 38%     0 - 2 +5.4 -2.1 +7.7
  Nov 17, 2024 108   Lipscomb W 66-61 61%     1 - 2 +6.2 -9.9 +15.7
  Nov 20, 2024 309   Jackson St. W 79-62 92%     2 - 2 +5.8 +0.9 +4.2
  Nov 26, 2024 16   @ Kentucky L 68-87 10%     2 - 3 -0.5 -5.2 +6.7
  Nov 30, 2024 199   Marshall W 90-82 80%     3 - 3 +3.2 +5.0 -2.7
  Dec 07, 2024 315   @ Evansville W 79-65 83%     4 - 3 +8.2 +3.4 +4.5
  Dec 10, 2024 318   Tennessee St. W 84-60 92%     5 - 3 +12.1 -0.5 +10.8
  Dec 14, 2024 138   Murray St. W 81-76 OT 71%     6 - 3 +3.3 -5.3 +7.8
  Dec 17, 2024 143   Seattle W 86-73 73%     7 - 3 +10.8 +11.9 -1.0
  Dec 29, 2024 19   @ Michigan L 71-85 10%    
  Jan 02, 2025 72   @ Liberty L 67-74 27%    
  Jan 04, 2025 261   @ Florida International W 81-74 73%    
  Jan 09, 2025 152   Jacksonville St. W 79-72 74%    
  Jan 11, 2025 193   Kennesaw St. W 87-78 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 129   @ Middle Tennessee L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 23, 2025 102   @ Louisiana Tech L 72-75 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 140   @ Sam Houston St. W 81-80 50%    
  Jan 30, 2025 139   UTEP W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 201   New Mexico St. W 78-69 79%    
  Feb 06, 2025 193   @ Kennesaw St. W 84-81 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 152   @ Jacksonville St. W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 129   Middle Tennessee W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 20, 2025 140   Sam Houston St. W 83-77 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 102   Louisiana Tech W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 27, 2025 139   @ UTEP L 75-76 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 201   @ New Mexico St. W 75-72 61%    
  Mar 06, 2025 261   Florida International W 84-71 87%    
  Mar 08, 2025 72   Liberty L 70-71 48%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.1 5.6 4.4 2.3 0.8 0.2 19.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.9 6.5 3.0 0.6 0.1 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.3 7.1 5.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.3 3.7 0.7 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.1 7.8 10.8 13.3 14.5 14.2 11.9 8.8 5.0 2.4 0.8 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 97.6% 2.3    2.2 0.2
15-3 87.5% 4.4    3.5 0.8 0.0
14-4 64.3% 5.6    3.3 2.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 34.5% 4.1    1.6 1.9 0.6 0.1
12-6 10.8% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.2% 19.2 11.8 5.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 58.3% 52.4% 6.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.5%
17-1 0.8% 46.2% 44.9% 1.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 2.2%
16-2 2.4% 37.4% 37.0% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.5 0.5%
15-3 5.0% 33.5% 33.4% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.1 3.3 0.2%
14-4 8.8% 28.6% 28.6% 12.0 0.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.3
13-5 11.9% 22.6% 22.6% 12.2 0.1 1.9 0.6 0.0 9.2
12-6 14.2% 17.9% 17.9% 12.5 0.0 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.6
11-7 14.5% 14.0% 14.0% 12.6 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.1 12.4
10-8 13.3% 10.3% 10.3% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 12.0
9-9 10.8% 8.5% 8.5% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.9
8-10 7.8% 5.7% 5.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.4
7-11 5.1% 2.8% 2.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.0
6-12 3.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
5-13 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.8% 15.7% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 8.4 4.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 84.2 0.0%