Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#115
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#119
Pace81.6#4
Improvement-0.7#220

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#208
First Shot-0.2#182
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#251
Layup/Dunks-0.7#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
Freethrows+2.5#49
Improvement+0.7#144

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#71
First Shot+3.8#69
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#158
Layups/Dunks+5.7#26
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#192
Freethrows-2.7#341
Improvement-1.4#264
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 15.3% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 96.0% 99.1% 92.9%
.500 or above in Conference 85.2% 94.1% 76.4%
Conference Champion 13.4% 20.3% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round13.3% 15.3% 11.4%
Second Round1.5% 1.7% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 49.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 6
Quad 38 - 510 - 11
Quad 48 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 134   Wichita St. L 84-91 65%     0 - 1 -7.9 -2.6 -4.2
  Nov 09, 2024 74   @ Grand Canyon L 72-74 25%     0 - 2 +8.0 -0.3 +8.5
  Nov 17, 2024 110   Lipscomb W 66-61 57%     1 - 2 +6.0 -11.0 +16.7
  Nov 20, 2024 284   Jackson St. W 79-62 87%     2 - 2 +7.8 +0.1 +6.9
  Nov 26, 2024 22   @ Kentucky L 68-87 8%     2 - 3 -0.8 -7.2 +8.3
  Nov 30, 2024 182   Marshall W 90-82 74%     3 - 3 +4.4 +5.6 -2.1
  Dec 07, 2024 230   @ Evansville W 79-65 66%     4 - 3 +12.5 +7.2 +5.1
  Dec 10, 2024 289   Tennessee St. W 84-60 87%     5 - 3 +14.5 +1.2 +11.6
  Dec 14, 2024 171   Murray St. W 81-76 OT 71%     6 - 3 +2.3 -6.6 +8.0
  Dec 17, 2024 162   Seattle W 86-73 69%     7 - 3 +10.7 +13.3 -2.5
  Dec 29, 2024 18   @ Michigan L 64-112 8%     7 - 4 -29.4 -10.7 -10.8
  Jan 02, 2025 90   @ Liberty W 71-70 29%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +9.7 +1.9 +7.8
  Jan 04, 2025 243   @ Florida International L 66-85 70%     8 - 5 1 - 1 -21.4 -14.1 -4.7
  Jan 09, 2025 130   Jacksonville St. L 67-73 64%     8 - 6 1 - 2 -6.7 -7.2 +0.5
  Jan 11, 2025 170   Kennesaw St. W 85-69 70%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +13.4 +3.7 +8.1
  Jan 18, 2025 120   @ Middle Tennessee L 57-71 43%     9 - 7 2 - 3 -9.2 -12.4 +3.1
  Jan 23, 2025 113   @ Louisiana Tech L 67-77 39%     9 - 8 2 - 4 -4.3 -3.0 -1.3
  Jan 25, 2025 181   @ Sam Houston St. W 75-66 56%     10 - 8 3 - 4 +10.4 +3.5 +7.1
  Jan 30, 2025 143   UTEP W 78-74 66%     11 - 8 4 - 4 +2.7 -0.5 +2.8
  Feb 01, 2025 166   New Mexico St. W 101-69 70%     12 - 8 5 - 4 +29.5 +28.1 +1.2
  Feb 06, 2025 170   @ Kennesaw St. W 81-80 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 130   @ Jacksonville St. L 73-74 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 120   Middle Tennessee W 77-74 63%    
  Feb 20, 2025 181   Sam Houston St. W 81-75 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 113   Louisiana Tech W 74-72 60%    
  Feb 27, 2025 143   @ UTEP L 75-76 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 166   @ New Mexico St. W 73-72 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 243   Florida International W 81-71 84%    
  Mar 08, 2025 90   Liberty L 71-72 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.1 6.2 5.1 1.0 13.4 1st
2nd 0.6 7.6 6.6 0.7 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.6 10.1 1.2 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 10.8 3.0 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.2 6.0 7.0 0.2 13.4 5th
6th 0.0 2.4 8.1 1.2 11.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.8 3.0 0.1 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.5 0.2 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.9 10.0 18.3 24.2 21.9 14.0 5.9 1.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
13-5 87.5% 5.1    3.2 1.7 0.2
12-6 44.0% 6.2    1.2 2.7 1.8 0.5 0.0
11-7 4.9% 1.1    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.4% 13.4 5.3 4.6 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.0% 28.6% 28.6% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7
13-5 5.9% 23.6% 23.6% 12.5 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 4.5
12-6 14.0% 21.2% 21.2% 12.8 0.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 11.0
11-7 21.9% 15.5% 15.5% 13.1 0.4 2.1 0.8 0.1 18.5
10-8 24.2% 11.4% 11.4% 13.3 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.1 21.5
9-9 18.3% 9.3% 9.3% 13.6 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 16.6
8-10 10.0% 6.8% 6.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 9.3
7-11 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 3.8
6-12 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 13.1 0.1 2.7 6.4 3.5 0.6 86.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.9 21.4 71.4 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%