Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.1 #156
Expected Predictive Rating +0.6 #151
Pace 73.8 #51
Improvement -3.4 #317

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #209 D C B C C
Defense #122 C- B+ C+ D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #152 0.91 #362 -4.4 #325
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #191 0.72 #238 -0.6 #212
Three Pointers 41% #191 1.01 #196 -0.4 #197
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #330 -5.4 #330
Freethrows 0.30 #205 73% #178 0.21 #192
Second Chance 33.6% #92 0.94 #294 0.32 #166
Turnovers 14.3% #47
Total Offense -1.7 #209

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #330 1.09 #86 +5.0 #39
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #108 0.84 #308 -1.6 #303
Three Pointers 46% #49 1.10 #299 -4.4 #338
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #213 -1.0 #213
Freethrows 0.38 #347 69% #31 0.26 #322
Second Chance 27.4% #71 0.85 #12 0.23 #23
Turnovers 17.6% #124
Total Defense +1.7 #122

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #170 -1.4% #63
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.9% #338 3.5% #248
Possession Length 16.6 #112 17.0 #147
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #176 0.12 #36
Improvement -4.2 #348 +0.8 #137

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 6.4% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 69.7% 79.2% 49.3%
.500 or above in Conference 66.7% 76.9% 45.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 1.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round5.6% 6.4% 3.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Home) - 68.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 13
Quad 411 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 333 Tennessee Tech W 82 - 70 89% +9  1 - 0 -2 -4 F B C +1 D+ D+ A
 Mon, Nov 10 265 @Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 79 61% -0  2 - 0 +5 +3 C- F A+ +1 F A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 16 230 Tennessee St. W 95 - 82 74% +9  3 - 0 +6 +10 C B A+ -5 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 12 Vanderbilt L 78 - 83 5% -6  3 - 1 +14 +3 B- D D+ +11 B A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 70 South Florida L 91 - 97 OT 22% +5  3 - 2 +2 +0 C C+ D+ +3 B- A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 99 Wichita St. W 75 - 70 32% +1  4 - 2 +10 +12 C+ C A+ -2 C A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 269 Evansville W 80 - 79 80% +3  5 - 2 -8 +2 C D D -10 F+ C C+
 Wed, Dec 10 153 @Marshall L 61 - 77 38% -7  5 - 3 -13 -9 F+ F C+ -4 B- C+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 69 Tulsa L 81 - 82 31% +3  5 - 4 +4 +5 C- B- A -1 C A+ D+
 Mon, Dec 29 191 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 78 46% -12  5 - 5 0 - 1 -10 -3 F D+ C+ -7 F A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 108 Sam Houston St. W 102 - 91 47% -1  6 - 5 1 - 1 +12 +19 C- A+ C+ -8 C C+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 215 Louisiana Tech W 66 - 61 72% +7  7 - 5 2 - 1 -1 -2 F C+ B- +1 B C D-
 Thu, Jan 8 167 @New Mexico St. L 64 - 80 41% -16  7 - 6 2 - 2 -14 -5 F B+ A+ -10 C F+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 257 @UTEP W 68 - 56 59% +0  8 - 6 3 - 2 +10 -2 D- D A- +12 A- A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 182 Missouri St. W 87 - 72 67% +6  9 - 6 4 - 2 +10 +17 B- A+ A+ -6 B- D- C
 Sat, Jan 17 142 Kennesaw St. L 65 - 81 57% -5  9 - 7 4 - 3 -18 -11 F F A -6 D A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 21 89 Liberty L 69 - 76 38% -5  9 - 8 4 - 4 -4 +1 C- C+ D+ -5 D+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 24 108 @Sam Houston St. L 58 - 73 26% -14  9 - 9 4 - 5 -8 -10 F B+ F +1 B F+ F+
 Wed, Jan 28 142 @Kennesaw St. L 69 - 72 34% +0  9 - 10 4 - 6 +1 -3 F B A- +4 C- A- B-
 Sat, Jan 31 154 @Middle Tennessee W 65 - 60 38% +1  10 - 10 5 - 6 +8 -1 C F B+ +9 B- A B-
 Thu, Feb 5 191 Jacksonville St. W 73 - 68 68%
 Sat, Feb 7 188 Florida International W 82 - 77 68%
 Sat, Feb 14 154 Middle Tennessee W 73 - 70 60%
 Wed, Feb 18 286 @Delaware W 71 - 67 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 89 @Liberty L 69 - 78 19%
 Thu, Feb 26 167 New Mexico St. W 76 - 72 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 257 UTEP W 75 - 67 79%
 Thu, Mar 5 182 @Missouri St. L 71 - 73 44%
 Sat, Mar 7 188 @Florida International L 79 - 80 45%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 10 +0 -2 D C B +2 C- B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 2.1 0.6 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.1 6.9 2.4 0.1 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 9.4 4.5 0.2 16.2 4th
5th 0.6 8.0 8.1 0.6 0.0 17.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.9 10.2 2.1 0.0 16.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 8.6 4.0 0.2 14.3 7th
8th 0.5 4.6 4.5 0.4 9.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 3.0 0.6 5.4 9th
10th 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.1 9.7 18.3 24.8 23.0 13.5 4.7 0.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 5.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.7% 21.1% 21.1% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6
13-7 4.7% 11.6% 11.6% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.2
12-8 13.5% 10.9% 10.9% 13.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 12.0
11-9 23.0% 8.0% 8.0% 13.7 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.2 21.2
10-10 24.8% 3.8% 3.8% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 23.8
9-11 18.3% 2.2% 2.2% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 17.9
8-12 9.7% 2.5% 2.5% 15.4 0.1 0.1 9.5
7-13 4.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.1
6-14 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 13.8 94.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.4 3.2 54.8 41.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%