Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +0.6 147
Results Rating +1.3 140
Pace 73.0 68
Improvement -1.1 225

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 186 D- C B C+ C+
Defense C+ 135 C B C+ F+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 145 F+ 48% 361 -3.5 298
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 230 D+ 34% 296 -1.2 241
Three Pointers 41% 182 C- 33% 223 -0.6 202
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 168 D- -5.3 341
1st FG Attempt D- 0.92 331
Second Chance C+ 32.6% 113 C- 0.99 239 C 0.32 152
Turnovers B 14.5% 52
Freethrows C+ 0.32 149 B- 75% 96 C+ 0.24 121
Total Offense C -0.8 186

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 252 C- 11.6% 219
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 27% 143 D+ 6.7% 286
Three Pointers B- 87% 113 C 0.9% 181
Total C 56% 159 C- 6.3% 258

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 313 C 57% 156 -3.2 74
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 94 D 41% 297 +1.7 312
Three Pointers 43% 100 C- 35% 225 +1.9 279
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.6 71 C- +1.0 224
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 191
Second Chance B- 28.4% 101 B+ 0.91 36 B 0.26 50
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 113
Freethrows F 0.40 360 B 70% 57 F+ 0.28 348
Total Defense C+ +1.4 135

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 312 C+ 12.1% 123
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 292 D- 1.7% 340
Three Pointers C 84% 178 D+ 0.5% 264
Total D+ 60% 280 D+ 4.6% 251

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 103 17.0 130
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 167 0.12 42
Improvement -0.5 #213 -0.6 #225

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 177 148 124
Results Rating Rank 176 142 110
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 13 - 7
Conference Finish 5 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 13% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.8
.500 or above 98% 100% 94%
.500 or above in Conference 97% 100% 92%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round12% 13% 9%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 64.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 34 - 76 - 11
Quad 411 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 309 Tennessee Tech W 82 - 70 87% +9  92% 1 - 0 C +0 D -6 F B+ C B+ +5 D+ C- A+
 Mon, Nov 10 279 @Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 79 66% -0  39% 2 - 0 C+ +4 C +0 D+ F A+ B +4 F A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 16 224 Tennessee St. W 95 - 82 76% +9  96% 3 - 0 B- +6 B +6 C- B+ A+ C -1 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 16 Vanderbilt L 78 - 83 6% -6  16% 3 - 1 B+ +14 C +1 B D D+ A+ +14 B A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 58 South Florida L 91 - 97 OT 20% +5  73% 3 - 2 C+ +3 C- -2 C C+ D+ B+ +7 B- A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 97 Wichita St. W 75 - 70 32% +1  54% 4 - 2 B +11 A +11 B- C A+ C -0 C A C-
 Sat, Dec 6 295 Evansville W 80 - 79 86% +3  55% 5 - 2 D -10 D+ -3 D+ D- D D- -7 F+ C- B-
 Wed, Dec 10 176 @Marshall L 61 - 77 45% -7  24% 5 - 3 D- -14 F -15 F F C+ C+ +0 B C F
 Fri, Dec 19 76 Tulsa L 81 - 82 35% +3  84% 5 - 4 C+ +4 C+ +3 C- B A C+ +0 C A+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 196 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 78 49% -12  3% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -10 D -6 F D+ C+ D+ -5 F A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 114 Sam Houston St. W 102 - 91 52% -1  33% 6 - 5 1 - 1 B +11 A+ +16 D+ A+ C D -6 C C+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 215 Louisiana Tech W 66 - 61 74% +7  93% 7 - 5 2 - 1 C -1 D+ -3 F B- B B- +2 A- C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 163 @New Mexico St. L 64 - 80 42% -16  0% 7 - 6 2 - 2 D- -13 D- -8 F B A+ D- -7 C F+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 243 @UTEP W 68 - 56 58% +0  45% 8 - 6 3 - 2 B +11 D -4 D- D B+ A+ +15 A A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 204 Missouri St. W 87 - 72 72% +6  72% 9 - 6 4 - 2 B +10 A +14 C+ A+ A D+ -4 B- D- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 165 Kennesaw St. L 65 - 81 65% -5  15% 9 - 7 4 - 3 F -19 F -15 F F A D+ -4 D A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 21 107 Liberty L 69 - 76 48% -5  10% 9 - 8 4 - 4 D+ -6 D+ -4 D+ C+ D C- -3 D+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 114 @Sam Houston St. L 58 - 73 30% -14  0% 9 - 9 4 - 5 D -9 F -13 F A- F B- +3 B F F+
 Wed, Jan 28 165 @Kennesaw St. L 69 - 72 42% +0  35% 9 - 10 4 - 6 C -0 D- -7 F B+ A B+ +7 C- A B-
 Sat, Jan 31 167 @Middle Tennessee W 65 - 60 42% +1  57% 10 - 10 5 - 6 B- +8 D -6 C- F B+ A+ +14 B- A+ B
 Thu, Feb 5 196 Jacksonville St. L 66 - 71 71% -1  32% 10 - 11 5 - 7 D -10 F -12 F F B B- +2 A+ F+ A
 Sat, Feb 7 184 Florida International W 80 - 70 69% -1  36% 11 - 11 6 - 7 B- +5 B- +5 F+ B- A+ C+ +0 C B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 14 167 Middle Tennessee W 82 - 80 65% +3  68% 12 - 11 7 - 7 C -1 B- +4 B+ B- F D -5 C+ F B-
 Wed, Feb 18 265 @Delaware W 88 - 87 OT 63% -7  3% 13 - 11 8 - 7 C- -2 A +11 C A+ C+ F -13 D F F
 Sat, Feb 21 107 @Liberty W 94 - 73 27% +8  74% 14 - 11 9 - 7 A+ +28 A+ +20 B+ A+ A A +9 C- A+ A-
 Thu, Feb 26 163 New Mexico St. W 77 - 73 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 243 UTEP W 75 - 67 78%
 Thu, Mar 5 204 @Missouri St. L 72 - 73 50%
 Sat, Mar 7 184 @Florida International L 79 - 80 46%
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 9 +1 C -1 B- D- C+ C+ +1 C- B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C F+ D+ C- D- 40% 33% 41% C+ D- C+ C- C B C+ B- C+ C+ C D C- C- 33% 23% 43% B- C B- B+ B C+ F B F+
1.07 48% 34% 33% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.0 .32 15% .32 75% .24 1.07 57% 41% 35% +1 -1 1.03 28% 0.9 .26 18% .40 70% .22
Nov
3		 Tennessee Tech D F A- F F 54% 26% 20% C+ F C+ A- B+ C A+ B A+ B+ B F C+ D+ 30% 17% 53% C- D+ B+ F C- A+ A- A+ A+
1.08 37% 46% 20% -13 0 0.76 33% 1.4 .46 14% .54 80% .43 0.92 50% 56% 32% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.3 .33 25% .21 50% .10
Nov
10		 Eastern Kentucky C B+ B+ F D+ 42% 27% 32% D+ D+ D F F A+ B+ F C B F F B- F 10% 42% 48% A+ F A A+ A+ B- F+ A- D+
1.15 68% 50% 26% +4 -1 1.08 28% 0.5 .14 4% .39 64% .25 1.05 100% 64% 32% +13 -5 1.19 24% 0.5 .12 19% .33 65% .21
Nov
16		 Tennessee St. B B- A+ F D 68% 8% 25% A C- C+ A- B+ A+ A+ C- A C A F F F 30% 28% 42% C+ F B- A+ A+ B- F C+ F
1.24 64% 75% 15% 0 +4 1.09 33% 1.3 .42 12% .47 72% .34 1.07 47% 50% 43% +6 -2 1.10 29% 0.4 .11 18% .54 74% .40
Nov
26		 Vanderbilt C B- F B+ B- 38% 18% 44% B B B F D D+ A+ C- A+ A+ D+ A+ D B 37% 20% 43% B- B A+ A A+ A+ F A F
0.97 58% 11% 36% -3 0 0.96 32% 0.6 .18 21% .52 73% .38 1.03 67% 20% 38% +2 0 1.06 20% 1.0 .20 21% .58 70% .41
Nov
27		 South Florida C- C- C+ B- C+ 31% 29% 40% D C D- A+ C+ D+ A- C- B+ B+ A- A+ D- B- 47% 13% 40% B- B- A- A+ A+ C+ B D+ B-
1.00 53% 39% 36% 0 -2 0.98 23% 1.3 .30 21% .39 68% .26 1.06 47% 22% 37% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .29 16% .34 77% .26
Nov
28		 Wichita St. A F A+ A B- 40% 29% 31% C+ B- B- D C A+ A+ A+ A+ C B- B- D C- 31% 29% 40% A C C- A+ A C- F F F
1.18 42% 50% 40% 0 -1 1.00 32% 0.8 .26 11% .41 78% .32 1.10 53% 36% 37% 0 -2 0.98 40% 0.7 .28 14% .48 81% .38
Dec
6		 Evansville D+ F F+ A+ D+ 45% 24% 31% B- D+ B+ F D- D A+ C A+ D- D B- F F 12% 33% 56% A+ F+ F A+ C- B- F A+ D+
1.10 44% 31% 53% +1 0 1.04 38% 0.6 .24 19% .39 74% .29 1.08 67% 35% 45% +9 -3 1.13 31% 0.8 .26 21% .40 57% .22
Dec
10		 Marshall F F+ F+ D- F 35% 27% 38% C- F C F F C+ C+ C C C+ B+ D- C C+ 26% 40% 34% A+ B D+ B C F C+ A- B-
0.89 50% 29% 30% -8 -1 0.85 34% 0.4 .14 16% .36 71% .26 1.12 53% 43% 35% +1 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 12% .25 67% .17
Dec
19		 Tulsa C+ F F A+ D+ 38% 13% 48% B- C- C+ A B A A+ A- A+ C+ D F B- C- 29% 8% 63% B C A+ B A+ D F A F
1.14 40% 14% 44% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.3 .35 11% .38 79% .30 1.16 64% 75% 33% +4 +1 1.13 17% 1.2 .20 13% .52 72% .37
Dec
29		 Jacksonville St. D F F F F 31% 13% 56% C F A+ F D+ C+ B- F C- D+ D- F F F 46% 3% 51% F+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ F C- F
0.97 41% 29% 27% -13 +1 0.78 44% 0.6 .26 16% .36 67% .24 1.13 63% 100% 50% +16 +3 1.40 20% 0.6 .12 25% .75 69% .52
Jan
2		 Sam Houston St. A+ F F C+ D 35% 13% 53% B D+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ B A+ D D- D+ C D+ 33% 25% 43% B+ C D B+ C+ D+ C- B C
1.32 47% 29% 34% -5 +1 0.95 49% 1.5 .73 17% .42 74% .31 1.18 65% 40% 35% +3 -1 1.07 39% 0.9 .34 15% .29 68% .20
Jan
4		 Louisiana Tech D+ F F F F 23% 9% 68% C F D A+ B- B A+ A A+ B- B B+ A B+ 31% 37% 31% A+ A- C+ D C- F F+ A+ C+
1.02 30% 25% 27% -15 0 0.73 28% 1.5 .40 15% .45 80% .36 0.94 50% 32% 25% -9 -3 0.78 33% 0.9 .29 14% .34 47% .16
Jan
8		 New Mexico St. D- F C+ F F 37% 30% 33% D+ F B B- B A+ C+ D+ C D- A+ C F C 28% 28% 43% B- C F C+ F+ B F D F
0.97 15% 38% 22% -22 -1 0.56 36% 1.2 .44 8% .38 74% .28 1.21 31% 38% 45% 0 -2 0.98 44% 0.9 .41 17% .62 76% .47
Jan
10		 UTEP D F B F+ D- 41% 31% 27% D+ D- B F D B+ B- F D A+ F A+ A+ A 17% 38% 45% A+ A C A+ A+ A F F F
1.00 48% 44% 29% -5 -1 0.90 39% 0.7 .27 15% .38 59% .22 0.82 88% 22% 24% -8 -4 0.79 27% 0.4 .11 22% .42 77% .32
Jan
14		 Missouri St. A F A+ A+ C+ 38% 29% 33% B C+ B+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ D+ D+ F A+ B 24% 12% 63% F+ B- D+ F+ D- C+ D+ F D-
1.32 50% 50% 44% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.5 .55 12% .50 83% .41 1.09 67% 50% 26% -4 0 0.94 34% 1.3 .43 18% .37 75% .28
Jan
17		 Kennesaw St. F F D B- F 37% 16% 47% C F D+ F F A D F F D+ A+ F F F+ 27% 22% 51% A+ D B- A+ A+ D+ F F+ F
0.90 24% 33% 37% -11 +1 0.81 27% 0.5 .14 11% .36 65% .23 1.12 43% 45% 42% +4 -1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 15% .47 76% .36
Jan
21		 Liberty D+ F F A D+ 32% 21% 47% C- D+ C+ C+ C+ D A F B C- A+ A+ F D 33% 2% 65% B- D+ B- F C- B+ F D+ F
1.07 40% 30% 41% -3 -1 0.96 33% 1.3 .42 20% .33 65% .21 1.17 21% 0% 57% +10 +2 1.26 15% 1.3 .19 17% .45 71% .32
Jan
24		 Sam Houston St. F F F D- F 37% 14% 49% B F C A+ A- F C+ B+ B- B- C+ C A A- 49% 16% 35% D- B A F F F+ F+ A+ A-
0.87 44% 17% 29% -12 +1 0.79 29% 1.4 .41 28% .33 75% .25 1.09 56% 38% 28% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.6 .46 13% .34 40% .14
Jan
28		 Kennesaw St. D- F F D- F 40% 19% 40% C- F B B B+ A C A+ B+ B+ A- A+ F C+ 59% 5% 36% F C- B- A+ A B- F A- F
0.97 26% 27% 30% -17 0 0.68 36% 1.1 .38 11% .40 88% .35 1.01 46% 0% 44% -3 +4 1.02 31% 0.7 .23 18% .52 63% .33
Jan
31		 Middle Tennessee D F B- B- C- 35% 19% 46% C- C- C- F F B+ F B F A+ C- F A+ B 40% 20% 40% D B- B A+ A+ B F A+ F
0.98 47% 40% 36% -2 0 0.98 24% 0.4 .10 12% .17 80% .14 0.91 63% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 27% 0.5 .14 18% .53 55% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Jacksonville St. F C F F F 26% 22% 52% F+ F C- F F B B+ A+ A+ B- A+ F A+ A+ 56% 26% 18% B A+ F C F+ A F D F
0.92 57% 17% 25% -12 -1 0.76 27% 0.6 .16 14% .39 88% .34 0.99 41% 50% 14% -12 +1 0.79 37% 1.0 .37 22% .90 72% .65
Feb
7		 Florida International B- D F D- F 40% 12% 47% B- F+ A D B- A+ F A+ D- C+ F A+ D C- 35% 31% 33% A+ C B- B+ B+ B- D+ F F+
1.17 52% 14% 30% -8 +1 0.88 44% 0.9 .40 10% .21 85% .18 1.03 71% 20% 38% +1 -2 1.00 30% 0.9 .27 19% .34 79% .27
Feb
14		 Middle Tennessee B- B+ B- C+ B+ 40% 12% 48% B B+ D A+ B- F A+ A+ A+ D F D A+ C+ 34% 25% 41% C+ C+ F+ F F B- B D+ B-
1.16 65% 40% 35% +4 +1 1.12 21% 1.5 .32 20% .56 88% .49 1.13 79% 43% 22% +1 -1 1.02 36% 1.2 .44 17% .22 69% .15
Feb
18		 Delaware A C B- C- C 34% 24% 42% C C C A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ F D- F C D- 33% 24% 43% B- D D+ F F F F D+ F
1.27 59% 42% 33% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.6 .48 13% .51 81% .41 1.25 67% 55% 35% +7 -1 1.15 22% 1.7 .37 12% .55 79% .44
Feb
21		 Liberty A+ C- F A+ B 47% 14% 39% A- B+ B- A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A F F A C- 51% 2% 47% D C- A+ C A+ A- F A+ F
1.36 54% 14% 50% +4 +2 1.14 34% 1.9 .66 13% .38 96% .36 1.05 78% 100% 29% +8 +3 1.24 4% 1.0 .04 17% .51 59% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.3 3.8 5.2 9.4 2nd
3rd 4.6 28.6 30.4 7.5 71.1 3rd
4th 0.1 6.8 5.4 12.3 4th
5th 0.6 3.5 0.3 4.3 5th
6th 1.1 0.7 1.8 6th
7th 0.8 0.1 0.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.7 15.7 34.6 34.3 12.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 12.7% 16.4% 16.4% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.3 10.6
12-8 34.3% 14.3% 14.3% 13.5 0.2 2.5 2.1 0.2 29.4
11-9 34.6% 10.7% 10.7% 13.8 0.0 1.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 30.9
10-10 15.7% 5.8% 5.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 14.8
9-11 2.7% 3.8% 3.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 13.6 88.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 12.9 0.2 22.4 65.3 12.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.1%
Lose Out 1.2%