Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.0 #265
Expected Predictive Rating -5.1 #248
Pace 71.0 #129
Improvement -1.3 #254

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #215 D+ D+ D+ C- C
Defense #308 C- D- F C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #143 1.05 #302 -1.6 #239
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #124 0.75 #177 +1.0 #123
Three Pointers 37% #264 1.00 #199 -2.2 #267
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #254 -2.7 #255
Freethrows 15.5 #280 75% #116 11.6 #242
Second Chance 29.9% #211 0.96 #276 0.29 #254
Turnovers 18.3% #280
Total Offense -1.9 #215

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #298 1.25 #286 +1.1 #136
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #322 0.79 #237 +1.6 #81
Three Pointers 51% #11 0.99 #155 -4.3 #326
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #231 -1.6 #232
Freethrows 17.3 #193 70% #80 12.1 #205
Second Chance 31.6% #217 1.22 #338 0.39 #316
Turnovers 13.2% #343
Total Defense -4.1 #308

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #227 0.7% #224
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.8% #252 2.5% #227
Possession Length 18.0 #246 16.2 #38
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #119 0.21 #286
Improvement +0.5 #149 -1.9 #296

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 5.5% 9.3% 2.1%
.500 or above in Conference 7.4% 12.4% 2.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.1% 8.4% 22.9%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 47.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 49 - 511 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 270 Coastal Carolina W 76 - 71 63%  -1  1 - 0 -4 -5 C F F -0 C F A-
 Sun, Nov 9 199 @Campbell L 82 - 91 26%  -6  1 - 1 -8 -2 D- F D+ -5 F C C
 Wed, Nov 12 243 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83 - 71 56%  +1  2 - 1 +4 -0 D- D- C +4 A+ D+ D-
 Sun, Nov 16 290 @South Dakota L 78 - 83 43%  +3  2 - 2 -9 +2 B- A+ F -11 C- D- F
 Thu, Nov 20 30 @Ohio St. L 58 - 91 3%  -25  2 - 3 -16 -10 F D+ F -4 C C+ C+
 Sun, Nov 23 292 Mount St. Mary's W 83 - 60 66%  +8  3 - 3 +13 +10 C+ B- A+ +4 C+ C+ A-
 Sat, Nov 29 188 @Valparaiso L 55 - 84 25%  -14  3 - 4 -28 -11 F B F -19 F F C
 Wed, Dec 3 333 Southern Indiana W 88 - 74 77%  +13  4 - 4 +0 +7 B+ B B- -8 F D F
 Sat, Dec 6 275 @SIU Edwardsville W 83 - 73 41%  +8  5 - 4 +6 +14 A+ B F -7 D+ C F
 Sun, Dec 14 20 @Iowa L 51 - 91 2%  -30  5 - 5 -21 -8 F B B -16 F B- F
 Sat, Dec 20 179 Buffalo L 71 - 88 44%  -10  5 - 6 0 - 1 -21 -2 D F A+ -20 C- F F
 Tue, Dec 30 180 @Toledo L 79 - 84 23%  +3  5 - 7 0 - 2 -3 +3 F B- F -6 A F C-
 Tue, Jan 6 93 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 87 9%  -6  5 - 8 0 - 3 -2 +2 D D- B- -4 C+ F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 197 Eastern Michigan L 72 - 73 47% 
 Tue, Jan 13 167 Massachusetts L 78 - 80 41% 
 Sat, Jan 17 64 @Akron L 75 - 93 5% 
 Tue, Jan 20 132 Bowling Green L 74 - 79 34% 
 Sat, Jan 24 323 Central Michigan W 79 - 72 74% 
 Tue, Jan 27 325 @Northern Illinois W 77 - 76 54% 
 Tue, Feb 3 170 @Ohio L 74 - 82 23% 
 Sat, Feb 7 268 @Texas St. L 72 - 75 39% 
 Wed, Feb 11 180 Toledo L 79 - 81 44% 
 Sat, Feb 14 197 @Eastern Michigan L 69 - 76 27% 
 Tue, Feb 17 64 Akron L 78 - 90 14% 
 Sat, Feb 21 323 @Central Michigan W 76 - 75 53% 
 Tue, Feb 24 132 @Bowling Green L 71 - 82 16% 
 Sat, Feb 28 93 Miami (OH) L 76 - 85 21% 
 Tue, Mar 3 312 Ball St. W 75 - 69 71% 
 Fri, Mar 6 138 @Kent St. L 78 - 88 18% 
Totals 11 - 18 5 - 13 -6 -2 D+ D+ D+ -4 C- D- F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.8 3.8 0.5 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 5.7 6.1 1.4 0.1 14.7 9th
10th 0.1 2.5 9.3 9.0 2.7 0.2 23.8 10th
11th 0.1 2.3 8.0 7.4 1.8 0.1 19.7 11th
12th 0.1 1.9 5.9 5.0 1.0 0.1 14.0 12th
13th 0.3 1.7 3.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.0 13th
Total 0.3 1.9 5.2 10.7 16.0 19.2 17.4 13.3 8.8 4.4 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 42.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 6.1% 6.1% 13.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.8% 3.3% 3.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.7
10-8 2.0% 3.8% 3.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9
9-9 4.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.3
8-10 8.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.7
7-11 13.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.3
6-12 17.4% 17.4
5-13 19.2% 19.2
4-14 16.0% 16.0
3-15 10.7% 10.7
2-16 5.2% 5.2
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%