William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#208
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#175
Pace76.6#18
Improvement+1.3#122

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#127
First Shot+1.8#123
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#190
Layup/Dunks+0.1#183
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#31
Freethrows-1.2#268
Improvement-1.2#261

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#294
First Shot-3.4#283
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#248
Layups/Dunks-0.8#200
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#192
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#285
Freethrows-0.3#206
Improvement+2.4#58
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 7.0% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 14.9
.500 or above 78.3% 92.3% 70.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 100.0% 98.1%
Conference Champion 8.8% 15.7% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round6.0% 7.0% 5.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 35.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 75 - 11
Quad 412 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 204   @ Radford L 77-89 40%     0 - 1 -11.6 +1.9 -13.5
  Nov 12, 2024 185   Norfolk St. W 84-73 56%     1 - 1 +7.2 +5.9 +1.0
  Nov 15, 2024 205   @ Winthrop L 85-86 40%     1 - 2 -0.7 +1.1 -1.7
  Nov 16, 2024 295   NC Central L 76-78 68%     1 - 3 -9.3 -3.8 -5.5
  Nov 17, 2024 254   Georgia Southern W 102-87 61%     2 - 3 +9.6 +14.0 -6.3
  Nov 22, 2024 91   @ North Carolina St. L 61-84 15%     2 - 4 -14.4 -11.4 -1.4
  Nov 24, 2024 145   @ Appalachian St. L 76-79 28%     2 - 5 +0.6 +11.7 -11.2
  Dec 02, 2024 275   @ Old Dominion L 83-88 56%     2 - 6 -8.8 +3.6 -12.1
  Dec 18, 2024 220   Richmond W 93-87 63%     3 - 6 +0.3 +23.7 -23.1
  Dec 22, 2024 38   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 70-90 7%     3 - 7 -5.6 +2.5 -7.1
  Dec 29, 2024 263   Navy W 82-76 71%     4 - 7 -2.2 +2.9 -5.3
  Jan 02, 2025 174   @ Hofstra W 74-56 34%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +19.9 +10.0 +10.8
  Jan 04, 2025 318   @ Stony Brook W 83-76 66%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +0.3 +10.8 -10.1
  Jan 09, 2025 175   Elon W 78-65 53%     7 - 7 3 - 0 +9.8 +13.5 -2.0
  Jan 11, 2025 333   N.C. A&T W 81-78 85%     8 - 7 4 - 0 -10.4 -5.3 -5.3
  Jan 16, 2025 287   @ Hampton W 67-64 58%     9 - 7 5 - 0 -1.4 -2.4 +1.2
  Jan 20, 2025 117   @ UNC Wilmington L 74-85 23%     9 - 8 5 - 1 -5.7 +1.3 -6.9
  Jan 23, 2025 287   Hampton W 94-83 75%     10 - 8 6 - 1 +1.6 +9.6 -8.9
  Jan 25, 2025 253   Monmouth W 78-73 70%     11 - 8 7 - 1 -2.8 -7.6 +4.2
  Jan 30, 2025 178   @ Campbell L 55-96 35%     11 - 9 7 - 2 -39.3 -20.1 -15.2
  Feb 03, 2025 131   College of Charleston W 90-75 44%     12 - 9 8 - 2 +14.2 +20.0 -5.1
  Feb 06, 2025 195   @ Drexel L 71-74 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 232   @ Delaware L 86-87 44%    
  Feb 13, 2025 174   Hofstra W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 195   Drexel W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 20, 2025 117   UNC Wilmington L 77-80 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 175   @ Elon L 75-79 33%    
  Feb 27, 2025 160   @ Towson L 69-74 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 206   Northeastern W 80-78 61%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.1 3.9 2.3 0.3 8.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 7.1 3.6 0.2 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 10.7 6.2 0.5 19.3 3rd
4th 1.0 10.3 9.4 0.8 0.0 21.5 4th
5th 0.2 5.2 9.7 1.3 0.0 16.4 5th
6th 0.9 6.8 1.8 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 3.4 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.5 0.5 3.2 8th
9th 0.5 0.9 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.4 0.1 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 1.2 7.0 16.9 23.8 24.1 16.2 8.0 2.5 0.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 92.5% 2.3    1.5 0.7 0.1
14-4 48.8% 3.9    1.1 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 12.7% 2.1    0.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 3.1 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.3% 15.4% 15.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 2.5% 14.2% 14.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.2
14-4 8.0% 13.7% 13.7% 14.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 6.9
13-5 16.2% 8.7% 8.7% 14.7 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 14.8
12-6 24.1% 6.3% 6.3% 15.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 22.6
11-7 23.8% 4.5% 4.5% 15.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 22.8
10-8 16.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 16.5
9-9 7.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 6.9
8-10 1.2% 1.2
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.2 0.8 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%