William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.6 #150
Expected Predictive Rating +1.8 #134
Pace 81.3 #5
Improvement -2.8 #298

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #142 B- C- C- B- B+
Defense #168 C C+ B C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #81 1.26 #77 +4.2 #49
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #340 0.72 #232 -3.5 #339
Three Pointers 46% #76 1.00 #210 +2.2 #104
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #95 +2.8 #94
Freethrows 0.32 #134 75% #84 0.24 #102
Second Chance 26.0% #306 1.14 #50 0.30 #214
Turnovers 17.5% #234
Total Offense +0.8 #142

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #199 1.25 #295 -1.5 #229
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #353 0.77 #219 +2.4 #22
Three Pointers 48% #22 0.94 #76 -1.8 #264
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #209 -0.9 #209
Freethrows 0.29 #138 71% #91 0.20 #114
Second Chance 31.8% #231 0.95 #75 0.30 #146
Turnovers 19.1% #54
Total Defense -0.2 #168

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.8% #26 1.7% #320
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.7% #132 0.0% #186
Possession Length 13.5 #2 18.5 #336
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #30 0.16 #139
Improvement +0.8 #139 -3.6 #341

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 15.6% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 97.4% 99.4% 96.5%
.500 or above in Conference 85.2% 95.6% 80.6%
Conference Champion 1.5% 4.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.1% 15.5% 9.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Away) - 30.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 66 - 9
Quad 412 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 307 @Norfolk St. W 81 - 78 73% -4  1 - 0 -3 -0 D+ A+ F -3 F A+ A
 Tue, Nov 11 136 @Richmond L 86 - 90 35% -1  1 - 1 +1 +6 C- C A+ -5 A+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 15 19 @St. John's L 60 - 93 4% -15  1 - 2 -12 -11 D- A F +2 C+ A- C
 Wed, Nov 19 151 @Bowling Green W 82 - 74 39% +9  2 - 2 +11 +4 B C F+ +7 A D A+
 Mon, Nov 24 257 UTEP W 74 - 63 72% +8  3 - 2 +6 -4 C+ D F +9 A+ D- B+
 Tue, Nov 25 267 Abilene Christian W 92 - 58 74% +12  4 - 2 +28 +12 A+ C B+ +14 B A A+
 Sun, Nov 30 243 Old Dominion W 88 - 75 79% +7  5 - 2 +5 +2 B F+ C- +2 C B A-
 Tue, Dec 2 113 @Duquesne W 83 - 79 29% +8  6 - 2 +10 +6 A+ F F +4 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 79 @George Washington L 86 - 99 18% -4  6 - 3 -3 +7 B- B- B- -9 D+ D+ D
 Thu, Dec 18 234 Radford W 96 - 83 77% +3  7 - 3 +6 +5 D B A- -1 B- D- C+
 Mon, Dec 29 155 Towson W 84 - 70 64% +8  8 - 3 1 - 0 +11 +12 A+ F B+ -1 D A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 217 Stony Brook W 76 - 57 75% +6  9 - 3 2 - 0 +13 +6 A+ D D- +8 A- A+ B-
 Mon, Jan 5 152 @College of Charleston L 79 - 88 40% -6  9 - 4 2 - 1 -6 -4 F C A+ -0 F+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 207 @Monmouth L 70 - 81 52% -3  9 - 5 2 - 2 -11 -2 D+ B+ F -8 D F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 206 @Drexel L 58 - 64 51% -5  9 - 6 2 - 3 -6 -8 D- F D- +2 F B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 281 N.C. A&T W 97 - 89 84% +7  10 - 6 3 - 3 -2 +11 A+ C C- -13 F C+ A
 Thu, Jan 22 116 UNC Wilmington W 77 - 70 52% +11  11 - 6 4 - 3 +7 +1 C C- C +6 A B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 126 Hofstra W 89 - 82 56% +5  12 - 6 5 - 3 +6 +18 A- B+ A+ -12 C D+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 192 @Elon L 76 - 79 49% +4  12 - 7 5 - 4 -2 +4 C+ D D- -7 C D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 212 Campbell L 96 - 104 74% -13  12 - 8 5 - 5 -14 +7 B C+ C- -20 F A- D
 Thu, Feb 5 116 @UNC Wilmington L 76 - 82 31%
 Sat, Feb 7 251 @Hampton W 77 - 74 60%
 Thu, Feb 12 256 @Northeastern W 89 - 86 61%
 Sat, Feb 14 192 Elon W 87 - 81 70%
 Thu, Feb 19 212 @Campbell W 87 - 86 52%
 Thu, Feb 26 256 Northeastern W 92 - 83 80%
 Sat, Feb 28 281 @N.C. A&T W 85 - 81 67%
 Tue, Mar 3 251 Hampton W 80 - 71 79%
Totals 17 - 11 10 - 8 +1 +1 B- C- C- +0 C C+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.8 5.1 1.7 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.6 12.9 5.4 0.3 22.2 3rd
4th 0.9 11.6 7.5 0.6 0.0 20.5 4th
5th 0.1 5.0 9.5 0.8 15.4 5th
6th 0.5 8.5 2.0 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 2.9 4.6 0.1 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.3 3.8 0.8 4.9 8th
9th 1.2 2.2 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 0.5 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.2 0.7 3.8 10.0 19.7 26.9 24.0 11.7 3.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 31.5% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.5% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 3.0% 25.1% 25.1% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 2.2
12-6 11.7% 20.6% 20.6% 12.9 0.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 9.3
11-7 24.0% 14.6% 14.6% 13.2 0.3 2.1 1.1 0.0 20.5
10-8 26.9% 9.6% 9.6% 13.5 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 24.3
9-9 19.7% 7.1% 7.1% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 18.4
8-10 10.0% 3.6% 3.6% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.7
7-11 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7
6-12 0.7% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 13.3 88.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 12.4 2.0 60.1 37.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%