William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 136
Results Rating +0.7 148
Pace 80.0 5
Improvement -2.4 276

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 123 B- C- C B B+
Defense C 173 C- C B- B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 59 B- 62% 79 +4.5 34
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 332 C- 37% 214 -3.4 333
Three Pointers 45% 95 C 34% 204 +1.8 120
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.4 24 C+ +1.4 118
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 88
Second Chance D 26.3% 301 B 1.14 44 C- 0.30 203
Turnovers C 17.2% 208
Freethrows B- 0.33 86 B- 75% 105 B 0.25 74
Total Offense C+ +1.6 123

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 58% 43 C 11.1% 187
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 73 D 7.5% 312
Three Pointers A- 93% 14 C- 1.1% 245
Total A- 67% 17 C- 6.2% 244

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 217 D+ 61% 258 +0.4 197
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 342 C 38% 187 -2.1 32
Three Pointers 48% 24 C+ 33% 115 +2.5 302
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 283 C +0.2 186
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 205
Second Chance C 30.4% 182 C 1.03 187 C 0.31 192
Turnovers B- 18.5% 76
Freethrows C+ 0.29 132 B- 71% 88 B- 0.20 107
Total Defense C -0.1 173

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 190 C+ 11.9% 133
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 268 C 5.4% 132
Three Pointers C 85% 197 B- 1.3% 84
Total D+ 59% 263 C 5.9% 154

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 13.7 2 18.6 341
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 24 0.16 125
Improvement +1.1 #130 -3.5 #330

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 161 137 115
Results Rating Rank 179 149 93
Conference Record 8 - 10 10 - 8 10 - 8
Conference Finish 8 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 10% 7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.0 13.0 13.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 97%
.500 or above in Conference 89% 94% 51%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round10% 10% 7%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Home) - 87.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 3
Quad 34 - 66 - 8
Quad 412 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 302 @Norfolk St. W 81 - 78 74% -4  15% 1 - 0 C- -2 D+ -3 D A+ F C+ +1 F A+ A
 Tue, Nov 11 130 @Richmond L 86 - 90 37% -1  31% 1 - 1 C +1 B- +4 C- C A+ C- -2 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 15 19 @St. John's L 60 - 93 4% -15  0% 1 - 2 D- -12 F -11 D A+ F B +4 C A- C
 Wed, Nov 19 166 @Bowling Green W 82 - 74 46% +9  87% 2 - 2 B +11 C +1 B C- F A- +8 A D- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 243 UTEP W 74 - 63 72% +8  99% 3 - 2 B- +7 D -6 B- D- F A+ +12 A+ F+ A-
 Tue, Nov 25 245 Abilene Christian W 92 - 58 72% +12  95% 4 - 2 A+ +30 A +12 A+ B- A A+ +15 B A- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 242 Old Dominion W 88 - 75 80% +7  85% 5 - 2 B- +6 C- -1 B F+ C B +5 C+ B+ A-
 Tue, Dec 2 110 @Duquesne W 83 - 79 32% +8  92% 6 - 2 B +10 C+ +3 A+ F F A- +7 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 82 @George Washington L 86 - 99 21% -4  22% 6 - 3 C- -3 B- +4 B- B C+ D -6 D+ D D-
 Thu, Dec 18 233 Radford W 96 - 83 79% +3  56% 7 - 3 B- +6 B- +4 D B+ A C+ +1 B- D- C+
 Mon, Dec 29 170 Towson W 84 - 70 69% +8  70% 8 - 3 1 - 0 B +10 A- +10 A+ F B+ C+ +1 D A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 31 214 Stony Brook W 76 - 57 76% +6  91% 9 - 3 2 - 0 B+ +13 B- +4 A+ D D- A +10 A- A+ B
 Mon, Jan 5 149 @College of Charleston L 79 - 88 43% -6  13% 9 - 4 2 - 1 D+ -6 D -5 F C+ A+ C+ +1 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 199 @Monmouth L 70 - 81 53% -3  25% 9 - 5 2 - 2 D -10 D -5 D+ B F D+ -5 D F D
 Sat, Jan 10 221 @Drexel L 58 - 64 57% -5  1% 9 - 6 2 - 3 D+ -6 F -12 D- F F+ B +5 F B A+
 Thu, Jan 15 273 N.C. A&T W 97 - 89 84% +7  95% 10 - 6 3 - 3 C -1 B+ +8 A+ C- C F -10 F C A
 Thu, Jan 22 108 UNC Wilmington W 77 - 70 53% +11  98% 11 - 6 4 - 3 B- +8 C- -1 C+ C- C+ A- +8 A B A
 Sat, Jan 24 106 Hofstra W 89 - 82 51% +5  67% 12 - 6 5 - 3 B +8 A+ +17 A A- A+ F+ -9 C D F+
 Thu, Jan 29 227 @Elon L 76 - 79 59% +4  76% 12 - 7 5 - 4 C- -4 C +0 C+ D- F+ D+ -4 C- C- F
 Sat, Jan 31 197 Campbell L 96 - 104 74% -13  0% 12 - 8 5 - 5 D- -13 B +6 B+ B- C F -18 F A D
 Thu, Feb 5 108 @UNC Wilmington W 85 - 78 31% -2  31% 13 - 8 6 - 5 B+ +14 A+ +16 C A+ C- C- -2 F A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 259 @Hampton L 74 - 77 65% +1  50% 13 - 9 6 - 6 D+ -6 C- -2 D+ C- C D+ -4 D F D+
 Thu, Feb 12 292 @Northeastern W 94 - 67 72% +11  99% 14 - 9 7 - 6 A +22 A+ +15 A+ C- A+ A- +8 A F C
 Sat, Feb 14 227 Elon L 78 - 81 78% -1  29% 14 - 10 7 - 7 D -10 D -6 D+ F C D+ -4 B+ D+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 197 @Campbell L 83 - 84 52% +2  62% 14 - 11 7 - 8 C -0 C+ +2 B F D+ C- -2 C+ F+ D+
 Thu, Feb 26 292 Northeastern W 92 - 80 88%
 Sat, Feb 28 273 @N.C. A&T W 86 - 81 67%
 Tue, Mar 3 259 Hampton W 81 - 71 83%
Totals 16 - 12 9 - 9 +2 C+ +2 D C+ B+ C +0 C B- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- C- C C+ 43% 23% 45% B+ B- D B C- C B- B- B C D+ C C+ C 37% 15% 48% D+ C- C C C B- C+ B- B-
1.11 62% 37% 34% +1 +1 1.08 26% 1.1 .30 17% .33 75% .25 1.09 61% 38% 33% 0 +1 1.04 30% 1.0 .31 19% .29 71% .24
Nov
8		 Norfolk St. D+ F+ A+ C- D- 42% 2% 56% B+ D D+ A+ A+ F A+ C- A+ C+ C B F F 40% 12% 48% F F D+ A+ A+ A F A+ F
1.05 53% 100% 32% -3 +3 1.02 30% 1.7 .52 22% .57 71% .40 1.01 55% 33% 46% +7 +1 1.18 33% 0.4 .12 25% .54 55% .29
Nov
11		 Richmond B- A B- F+ C- 17% 21% 62% C- C- F+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F A+ A+ 33% 8% 59% F A+ F D F A F C+ F
1.11 70% 42% 28% -3 -2 0.93 23% 1.6 .35 9% .44 81% .36 1.16 47% 50% 27% -9 +1 0.86 45% 1.1 .51 19% .74 76% .56
Nov
15		 St. John's F F F+ F D- 34% 14% 52% B- D C+ A+ A+ F F+ F F B D+ F A+ C+ 50% 10% 40% D- C C- A+ A- C A B+ A
0.75 41% 29% 27% -13 +1 0.78 29% 1.5 .42 30% .21 42% .09 1.16 61% 67% 24% -2 +2 1.03 39% 0.9 .37 14% .32 68% .22
Nov
19		 Bowling Green C A- D C- B- 43% 6% 51% A- B D+ B- C- F A A+ A+ A- B F A+ A+ 54% 8% 38% F+ A C F D- A+ F D- F
1.05 67% 33% 32% +2 +2 1.10 25% 1.1 .28 23% .40 88% .35 0.95 52% 75% 16% -11 +3 0.86 27% 1.1 .30 23% .45 78% .35
Nov
24		 UTEP D B- B- C C+ 43% 14% 43% A- B- D+ D- D- F C D+ C A+ B A A+ A+ 37% 21% 42% F A+ C- F F+ A- C+ B- C+
1.00 62% 43% 33% +2 +1 1.08 30% 0.9 .27 26% .36 70% .26 0.85 52% 25% 17% -16 0 0.70 28% 1.3 .35 20% .26 67% .17
Nov
25		 Abilene Christian A A+ A+ C A+ 55% 15% 30% B A+ D A+ B- A B F+ C+ A+ D- D A+ B 31% 23% 46% B- B D+ A+ A- A+ C+ A+ A+
1.23 85% 57% 36% +18 +2 1.43 24% 1.4 .33 19% .49 67% .33 0.78 63% 42% 21% -7 -1 0.87 35% 0.6 .20 28% .32 35% .11
Nov
30		 Old Dominion C- A A+ F B 43% 16% 41% B- B D F F+ C A+ A+ A+ B D C- A+ B 36% 13% 51% F C+ A+ F B+ A- A F B-
1.11 73% 63% 24% +4 +1 1.12 27% 0.8 .20 15% .45 83% .37 0.95 64% 38% 26% -4 +1 0.95 14% 1.4 .19 20% .21 92% .19
Dec
2		 Duquesne C+ B F A+ A+ 37% 8% 55% A A+ F F F F F A+ D- A- C F A+ A 40% 4% 56% D A- F F F A+ F+ C+ D-
1.08 63% 25% 50% +14 +2 1.33 15% 0.8 .11 23% .24 86% .20 1.03 60% 50% 25% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.5 .61 27% .43 71% .30
Dec
6		 George Washington B- B+ F D C+ 52% 9% 40% A+ B- C- A+ B C+ C+ A B D F F A+ C- 56% 3% 41% F+ D+ D D+ D D- D- D- F+
1.11 67% 20% 30% +1 +3 1.09 27% 1.3 .36 17% .29 79% .23 1.27 73% 100% 25% +5 +3 1.19 40% 1.1 .46 14% .36 79% .28
Dec
18		 Radford B- B- F F F+ 60% 5% 35% A+ D C+ A B+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F B- B 28% 8% 63% D+ B- D+ F+ D- C+ B- B+ B
1.19 62% 0% 25% -5 +4 1.00 33% 1.3 .44 14% .45 87% .39 1.03 41% 60% 32% -5 +1 0.93 31% 1.2 .36 19% .34 68% .23
Dec
29		 Towson A- B A+ A+ A+ 42% 15% 43% B A+ D- F F B+ A- D B+ C+ F+ C+ B- D 33% 24% 43% D D B+ A+ A+ D+ C A+ B
1.20 64% 63% 43% +12 +1 1.28 21% 0.3 .07 13% .35 67% .23 1.00 67% 38% 30% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.5 .16 16% .27 56% .15
Dec
31		 Stony Brook B- B A+ A+ A+ 39% 9% 52% B+ A+ D D- D D- A A A+ A F A+ A A 24% 14% 63% B- A- F A+ A+ B A F B
1.17 65% 50% 43% +11 +2 1.27 28% 0.8 .21 18% .38 80% .30 0.88 67% 14% 28% -7 0 0.88 35% 0.3 .09 20% .17 89% .15
Jan
5		 College of Charleston D A+ F F F 20% 31% 49% F+ F D- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F A+ F F 25% 26% 49% A- F A- A+ A+ A+ F D- F
0.96 85% 5% 22% -14 -3 0.69 25% 1.2 .31 7% .33 80% .26 1.07 92% 21% 38% +7 -2 1.13 24% 0.8 .18 23% .46 79% .36
Jan
8		 Monmouth D C+ B F D+ 40% 24% 36% D+ D+ C+ A- B F C- F F D+ F A+ F+ D 34% 23% 43% C- D C- F F D B- A+ B+
0.97 60% 42% 28% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.2 .38 24% .27 47% .13 1.12 67% 17% 39% +1 -1 1.04 32% 1.3 .43 15% .28 65% .18
Jan
10		 Drexel F C- F F F 45% 15% 40% A- D- D F F F+ F C- F B F+ F+ F F 44% 22% 34% C- F D+ A+ B A+ C- B+ C+
0.87 54% 25% 24% -10 +1 0.85 26% 0.7 .18 20% .22 75% .17 0.96 67% 44% 50% +13 0 1.29 31% 0.6 .19 29% .27 62% .17
Jan
15		 N.C. A&T B+ B- C A+ A 62% 10% 29% A+ A+ F+ A+ C- C A+ C+ A+ F F F F F 41% 24% 35% D- F A- F C A D+ C+ D+
1.27 63% 40% 53% +11 +3 1.31 20% 1.3 .27 13% .47 71% .33 1.17 71% 58% 44% +16 0 1.33 24% 1.3 .32 24% .39 74% .29
Jan
22		 UNC Wilmington C- B- A+ F C- 37% 6% 58% A+ C+ F A+ C- C+ A C- A A- A+ A+ B+ A+ 27% 12% 61% D- A C+ B+ B A F B- F
1.06 63% 67% 27% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 14% .35 73% .26 0.96 38% 17% 30% -11 0 0.80 32% 0.9 .30 19% .56 67% .38
Jan
24		 Hofstra A+ B F A A 27% 11% 63% B+ A A- B A- A+ F A+ D- F+ A A+ F B- 35% 13% 53% F C D- C D F+ B F C
1.33 60% 17% 40% +4 0 1.11 38% 1.1 .43 7% .21 85% .18 1.22 47% 14% 41% -1 +1 1.02 39% 1.1 .41 12% .25 87% .22
Jan
29		 Elon C C- F B+ C- 40% 4% 56% A C+ D- C D- F+ D+ A- C D+ C C+ D+ C 53% 6% 42% F+ C- B F C- F A- A- A
1.14 55% 0% 39% +2 +2 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 20% .26 79% .21 1.19 57% 33% 36% +1 +3 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 11% .23 64% .15
Jan
31		 Campbell B B+ A+ F C+ 67% 9% 24% A+ B+ D- A+ B- C A+ A- A+ F F F+ F F 45% 13% 43% C- F C- A+ A D F+ D- F
1.22 68% 50% 27% +5 +4 1.20 24% 1.7 .40 18% .66 79% .52 1.32 76% 43% 46% +16 +2 1.38 35% 0.7 .24 15% .45 77% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 UNC Wilmington A+ F+ F A+ C- 43% 17% 40% A C A+ A+ A+ C- A+ C A+ C- F F F F 27% 25% 47% B- F A+ B- A+ B+ A A+ A+
1.26 50% 13% 42% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 15% .42 75% .31 1.16 71% 46% 46% +14 -1 1.27 23% 1.0 .23 18% .29 56% .16
Feb
7		 Hampton C- B+ A+ F D- 55% 13% 32% A D+ F A+ C- C A+ B A+ D+ C A+ F D 35% 28% 37% C D C F F D+ F C+ F
1.04 69% 67% 7% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.6 .27 17% .54 72% .39 1.08 56% 23% 41% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.3 .42 17% .52 71% .37
Feb
12		 Northeastern A+ B+ F A+ A+ 53% 13% 34% B+ A+ C+ D C- A+ D+ F F+ A- D- B A+ A 34% 17% 49% B- A B- F F C A+ F A
1.35 68% 14% 61% +16 +2 1.38 33% 0.9 .30 11% .31 63% .19 0.96 67% 33% 19% -9 0 0.85 24% 1.7 .41 17% .16 78% .12
Feb
14		 Elon D B- A+ F D 43% 13% 43% B+ D+ D- F F C A+ C A+ D+ A A+ D- A- 46% 13% 41% C B+ A+ F D+ F D+ C- D+
1.10 61% 57% 26% -1 +1 1.02 28% 0.8 .22 15% .42 72% .30 1.14 46% 14% 39% -5 +2 0.95 21% 1.8 .37 8% .34 73% .25
Feb
19		 Campbell C+ A- B+ B B+ 36% 19% 45% C B F F F D+ A+ C+ A+ C- A+ A+ F C+ 39% 11% 50% C C+ C F F+ D+ F C F+
1.12 71% 44% 38% +8 0 1.19 21% 0.8 .18 19% .51 74% .38 1.13 33% 17% 44% -4 +1 0.96 34% 1.3 .44 16% .47 72% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.5 23.3 23.7 4th
5th 8.5 24.7 33.2 5th
6th 0.2 19.8 2.0 22.0 6th
7th 2.4 9.8 12.2 7th
8th 0.0 5.6 0.2 5.8 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 2.2 9th
10th 0.5 0.1 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.8 10.3 38.8 50.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 50.1% 11.8% 11.8% 12.8 0.0 1.8 3.7 0.4 0.0 44.1
9-9 38.8% 8.8% 8.8% 13.3 0.2 2.0 1.2 0.0 35.4
8-10 10.3% 6.5% 6.5% 14.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 9.6
7-11 0.8% 4.0% 4.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.8
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 13.0 89.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.9% 100.0% 12.8 0.1 30.5 62.4 7.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.5%
Lose Out 0.3%