William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.9 #127
Expected Predictive Rating +4.7 #104
Pace 83.3 #4
Improvement -1.8 #281

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #161 B- C C- C+ B
Defense #111 C+ C B+ C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #148 1.29 #63 +3.1 #87
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #310 0.75 #175 -2.4 #298
Three Pointers 46% #75 1.00 #206 +2.4 #109
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #97 +3.0 #98
Freethrows 17.7 #168 74% #131 13.1 #149
Second Chance 26.8% #287 1.17 #53 0.31 #190
Turnovers 17.7% #248
Total Offense +0.1 #161

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #213 1.24 #281 -1.0 #217
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #357 0.73 #149 +2.9 #10
Three Pointers 49% #21 0.84 #20 +0.1 #179
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #113 +2.0 #113
Freethrows 16.0 #118 72% #178 11.6 #242
Second Chance 32.0% #232 1.01 #146 0.32 #185
Turnovers 19.5% #46
Total Defense +1.8 #111

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #72 1.8% #321
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.1% #122 -5.6% #80
Possession Length 13.2 #2 18.3 #330
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #28 0.16 #152
Improvement -0.5 #219 -1.3 #266

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 16.2% 11.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.2
.500 or above 96.9% 98.8% 93.6%
.500 or above in Conference 87.7% 93.0% 78.1%
Conference Champion 9.0% 11.8% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round14.5% 16.2% 11.5%
Second Round1.1% 1.4% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 64.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 57 - 9
Quad 412 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 272 @Norfolk St. W 81 - 78 70%  -4  1 - 0 -0 +2 C A+ F -2 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 115 @Richmond L 86 - 90 32%  -1  1 - 1 +3 +6 C- C A+ -3 A+ F B
 Sat, Nov 15 21 @St. John's L 60 - 93 6%  -13  1 - 2 -14 -11 D A- F +1 C+ A D+
 Wed, Nov 19 132 @Bowling Green W 82 - 74 39%  +9  2 - 2 +13 +3 B+ C F +8 A+ D- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 244 UTEP W 74 - 63 74%  +8  3 - 2 +6 -4 C+ F F +10 A+ D+ A-
 Tue, Nov 25 202 Abilene Christian W 92 - 58 66%  +12  4 - 2 +32 +14 A+ B- B +16 B+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 250 Old Dominion W 88 - 75 82%  +7  5 - 2 +5 +1 B+ F D+ +2 C A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 129 @Duquesne W 83 - 79 39%  +8  6 - 2 +9 +3 A+ F F +5 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 70 @George Washington L 86 - 99 19%  -4  6 - 3 -2 +7 B+ C+ C -7 D D+ D-
 Thu, Dec 18 234 Radford W 96 - 83 80%  +3  7 - 3 +6 +6 D+ B- A+ -1 B- D B-
 Mon, Dec 29 175 Towson W 84 - 70 72%  +8  8 - 3 1 - 0 +10 +11 A+ F B+ -1 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 276 Stony Brook W 76 - 57 86%  +6  9 - 3 2 - 0 +9 +6 A+ D- D- +5 B A+ B
 Mon, Jan 5 149 @College of Charleston L 79 - 88 44%  -6  9 - 4 2 - 1 -6 -4 F C+ A+ -0 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 194 @Monmouth L 70 - 81 54%  -3  9 - 5 2 - 2 -10 -3 D A F -7 D- F C
 Sat, Jan 10 248 @Drexel W 76 - 72 64% 
 Thu, Jan 15 305 N.C. A&T W 88 - 75 89% 
 Thu, Jan 22 118 UNC Wilmington W 77 - 75 58% 
 Sat, Jan 24 109 Hofstra W 78 - 77 52% 
 Thu, Jan 29 163 @Elon L 83 - 84 48% 
 Sat, Jan 31 199 Campbell W 88 - 81 75% 
 Thu, Feb 5 118 @UNC Wilmington L 74 - 78 36% 
 Sat, Feb 7 252 @Hampton W 77 - 73 64% 
 Thu, Feb 12 233 @Northeastern W 85 - 82 60% 
 Sat, Feb 14 163 Elon W 86 - 81 69% 
 Thu, Feb 19 199 @Campbell W 85 - 84 54% 
 Thu, Feb 26 233 Northeastern W 88 - 79 79% 
 Sat, Feb 28 305 @N.C. A&T W 85 - 78 74% 
 Tue, Mar 3 252 Hampton W 80 - 70 82% 
Totals 18 - 10 11 - 7 +2 +0 B- C C- +2 C+ C B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.5 2.5 0.6 9.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.1 7.2 4.0 0.6 0.0 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.3 8.7 4.3 0.7 0.0 19.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.4 8.6 3.9 0.4 0.0 17.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 6.6 3.2 0.3 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.1 0.4 8.7 6th
7th 0.3 2.8 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 2.4 0.7 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.4 7.0 10.9 15.3 18.2 17.4 13.8 8.3 3.1 0.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 97.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 79.5% 2.5    1.6 0.8 0.1
14-4 43.0% 3.5    1.5 1.6 0.5 0.1
13-5 13.9% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 4.0 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.7% 33.1% 33.1% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4
15-3 3.1% 31.5% 31.5% 12.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.1
14-4 8.3% 26.3% 26.3% 12.6 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.1
13-5 13.8% 21.7% 21.7% 12.8 0.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 10.8
12-6 17.4% 18.8% 18.8% 13.1 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.0 14.1
11-7 18.2% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.1 15.8
10-8 15.3% 8.2% 8.2% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 14.1
9-9 10.9% 6.6% 6.6% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 10.2
8-10 7.0% 4.1% 4.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.7
7-11 3.4% 4.1% 4.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.3
6-12 1.3% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 1.3
5-13 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 13.1 85.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.5 2.3 43.2 54.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%