Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Horizon
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#132
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#120
Pace73.1#80
Improvement+5.0#8

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#103
First Shot-1.9#226
After Offensive Rebound+4.6#9
Layup/Dunks+2.9#81
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#153
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#327
Freethrows-0.1#183
Improvement+2.8#28

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#201
First Shot-0.6#191
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#225
Layups/Dunks-0.8#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#212
Freethrows+0.7#133
Improvement+2.2#35
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.5% 25.9% 18.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 14.2
.500 or above 97.5% 97.9% 90.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 97.5% 88.8%
Conference Champion 44.6% 45.9% 23.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round25.5% 25.9% 18.3%
Second Round2.2% 2.3% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: IU Indianapolis (Home) - 94.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 37 - 57 - 7
Quad 414 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 98   @ Northern Iowa L 68-87 27%     0 - 1 -11.0 -0.4 -11.2
  Nov 13, 2024 172   @ Longwood L 62-76 47%     0 - 2 -11.6 -16.9 +7.2
  Nov 19, 2024 163   @ Duquesne W 80-74 45%     1 - 2 +8.8 +11.7 -2.8
  Nov 22, 2024 250   Portland St. W 91-74 82%     2 - 2 +9.1 +14.0 -5.0
  Nov 23, 2024 151   Wofford W 76-74 67%     3 - 2 -0.8 +5.5 -6.1
  Nov 24, 2024 125   St. Thomas W 69-65 59%     4 - 2 +3.3 -4.9 +8.2
  Nov 27, 2024 81   @ Central Florida L 76-84 21%     4 - 3 +2.2 +6.8 -4.3
  Nov 30, 2024 282   @ Southern Miss L 65-66 69%     4 - 4 -4.6 -2.2 -2.4
  Dec 05, 2024 218   Cleveland St. W 79-67 77%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +6.0 +11.2 -4.2
  Dec 11, 2024 329   @ Green Bay W 88-67 78%     6 - 4 2 - 0 +14.4 +10.6 +3.9
  Dec 15, 2024 148   Akron W 100-81 55%     7 - 4 +19.3 +10.0 +6.0
  Dec 29, 2024 351   IU Indianapolis W 84-67 95%    
  Jan 02, 2025 183   @ Oakland L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 321   @ Detroit Mercy W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 08, 2025 160   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 83-84 45%    
  Jan 11, 2025 329   Green Bay W 88-74 91%    
  Jan 17, 2025 187   Youngstown St. W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 19, 2025 256   Robert Morris W 80-70 82%    
  Jan 22, 2025 168   @ Wright St. L 80-81 46%    
  Jan 24, 2025 205   @ Northern Kentucky W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 02, 2025 160   Purdue Fort Wayne W 86-81 67%    
  Feb 05, 2025 351   @ IU Indianapolis W 81-70 84%    
  Feb 08, 2025 218   @ Cleveland St. W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 14, 2025 168   Wright St. W 83-78 68%    
  Feb 16, 2025 205   Northern Kentucky W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 21, 2025 187   @ Youngstown St. W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 23, 2025 256   @ Robert Morris W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 27, 2025 183   Oakland W 75-69 70%    
  Mar 01, 2025 321   Detroit Mercy W 82-68 89%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.9 9.7 12.0 9.9 5.7 2.4 0.5 44.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.8 5.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.9 3.3 0.6 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.6 6.6 9.6 12.9 15.3 16.1 14.1 10.2 5.7 2.4 0.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.4    2.4
18-2 99.6% 5.7    5.6 0.1
17-3 96.7% 9.9    9.0 0.8 0.0
16-4 85.5% 12.0    8.9 3.0 0.2
15-5 60.3% 9.7    4.8 4.0 0.9 0.1
14-6 25.3% 3.9    0.8 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.4% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 44.6% 44.6 32.0 9.7 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 54.7% 54.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
19-1 2.4% 46.6% 46.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3
18-2 5.7% 43.1% 43.1% 12.7 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.3
17-3 10.2% 38.7% 38.7% 13.1 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.0 0.0 6.3
16-4 14.1% 33.5% 33.5% 13.5 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.0 0.2 9.4
15-5 16.1% 28.1% 28.1% 13.8 0.1 1.4 2.4 0.6 0.0 11.6
14-6 15.3% 22.7% 22.7% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.0 0.0 11.9
13-7 12.9% 19.1% 19.1% 14.4 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 10.4
12-8 9.6% 15.1% 15.1% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 8.2
11-9 6.6% 10.5% 10.5% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 5.9
10-10 3.6% 7.1% 7.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.4
9-11 1.8% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
8-12 0.7% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7
7-13 0.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 25.5% 25.5% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.9 8.0 9.4 4.4 0.5 74.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.3 0.8 0.8 4.1 56.9 35.0 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%