Wofford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.5 #200
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #167
Pace 68.4 #194
Improvement +2.7 #69

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #139 C- C- B- C+ B
Defense #281 C- D+ D+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #112 1.02 #330 -1.2 #227
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #307 0.73 #212 -2.5 #298
Three Pointers 44% #120 1.01 #193 +1.4 #125
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #245 -2.2 #245
Freethrows 0.33 #107 72% #184 0.24 #113
Second Chance 29.8% #211 0.99 #236 0.29 #221
Turnovers 15.0% #81
Total Offense +0.9 #139

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #18 1.11 #117 -3.3 #294
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #254 0.79 #235 +0.6 #141
Three Pointers 36% #313 1.08 #275 +1.4 #125
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #220 -1.2 #220
Freethrows 0.29 #161 78% #359 0.23 #225
Second Chance 31.4% #216 1.11 #299 0.35 #270
Turnovers 15.3% #264
Total Defense -3.5 #281

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #60 1.7% #321
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.2% #286 0.7% #202
Possession Length 17.7 #226 16.7 #84
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #302 0.16 #128
Improvement +4.9 #7 -2.1 #298

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.7% 12.3% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 99.6% 100.0% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 98.2%
Conference Champion 18.6% 22.1% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 1.3%
First Round11.5% 12.2% 8.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Away) - 78.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 416 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 84 @George Mason L 46 - 70 13% -9  0 - 1 -14 -19 F D+ F +3 B D B
 Sat, Nov 8 254 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 86 - 76 71% +12  1 - 1 +2 +2 D- B+ C- -1 C+ A F+
 Tue, Nov 11 28 @Auburn L 62 - 93 4% -19  1 - 2 -12 -5 D- D- C+ -7 C F+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 305 @Bellarmine W 94 - 86 60% +8  2 - 2 +3 +12 A+ F D+ -9 D+ F+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 351 North Florida W 86 - 78 88% +1  3 - 2 -8 -4 D- B+ C- -4 D A+ D
 Wed, Nov 26 193 @Northern Kentucky L 83 - 93 38% -2  3 - 3 -9 +6 F+ D- A -14 D- F+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 265 @Eastern Kentucky W 83 - 77 51% +8  4 - 3 +3 +3 F+ D A+ -0 A F D-
 Wed, Dec 3 262 Presbyterian W 63 - 56 73% +4  5 - 3 -2 -7 F D A+ +6 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 192 Elon L 52 - 73 60% -21  5 - 4 -26 -19 F F B- -11 D- A- C+
 Mon, Dec 15 363 @Gardner-Webb W 83 - 57 88% +11  6 - 4 +11 +4 F+ A+ D+ +7 B- A B-
 Wed, Dec 17 99 @Wichita St. L 73 - 84 16% -7  6 - 5 -3 +8 C B+ B -12 F+ B- D
 Wed, Dec 31 277 @Western Carolina W 79 - 74 54% +3  7 - 5 1 - 0 +2 +1 C- C- D+ +1 B+ C B-
 Sat, Jan 3 344 @The Citadel W 95 - 86 72% +8  8 - 5 2 - 0 +0 +23 A+ F+ D+ -22 F F C+
 Wed, Jan 7 312 UNC Greensboro W 97 - 85 81% +11  9 - 5 3 - 0 +0 +17 D A+ A+ -17 F F D
 Sat, Jan 10 148 @Mercer L 97 - 109 27% -7  9 - 6 3 - 1 -8 +15 B- B B- -23 F F C+
 Wed, Jan 14 275 Chattanooga L 67 - 76 74% +2  9 - 7 3 - 2 -18 -10 F+ F A -9 F A- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 164 @Furman W 74 - 70 31% -3  10 - 7 4 - 2 +7 +10 B C B -3 A F C-
 Wed, Jan 21 228 Samford W 88 - 78 66% +1  11 - 7 5 - 2 +3 +16 A+ C- B- -12 F+ F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 148 Mercer W 80 - 77 49% +1  12 - 7 6 - 2 +1 +4 C A- B- -3 C A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 275 @Chattanooga W 81 - 55 53% +13  13 - 7 7 - 2 +23 +11 C D+ A+ +13 A C+ C
 Sun, Feb 1 131 East Tennessee St. L 72 - 86 45% -5  13 - 8 7 - 3 -15 +3 C- B A -20 B F F
 Wed, Feb 4 356 @VMI W 81 - 72 79%
 Sat, Feb 7 277 Western Carolina W 84 - 77 74%
 Wed, Feb 11 228 @Samford L 77 - 79 43%
 Sat, Feb 14 312 @UNC Greensboro W 79 - 76 63%
 Wed, Feb 18 356 VMI W 84 - 69 91%
 Sat, Feb 21 164 Furman W 75 - 74 54%
 Wed, Feb 25 131 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 344 The Citadel W 79 - 67 87%
Totals 18 - 11 12 - 6 -3 +1 C- C- B- -3 C- D+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.7 6.2 9.3 2.4 18.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 10.3 15.8 3.5 30.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 8.8 15.3 4.1 0.0 29.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 6.2 8.8 2.9 0.0 18.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.1 2.2 5th
6th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.0 8.4 18.9 29.1 26.1 12.7 2.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 2.4    2.1 0.3
14-4 72.8% 9.3    4.0 4.5 0.8
13-5 23.9% 6.2    0.9 2.8 2.1 0.4
12-6 2.3% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.6% 18.6 6.9 7.7 3.3 0.7 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.4% 21.0% 21.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.9
14-4 12.7% 17.0% 17.0% 14.5 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.1 10.6
13-5 26.1% 13.3% 13.3% 14.9 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.6 22.6
12-6 29.1% 11.9% 11.9% 15.2 0.3 1.9 1.2 25.7
11-7 18.9% 8.6% 8.6% 15.5 0.1 0.7 0.9 17.3
10-8 8.4% 5.0% 5.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 7.9
9-9 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.9
8-10 0.4% 0.4
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 15.0 88.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 13.8 2.0 26.7 62.4 8.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%